Phoenix report: oil prices rising phenomenon in recent mitigation, not large, 2004, 2004 07:33
Phoenix Satellite TV New York June 2 news (Reporter Pang Zhe) After the last day, the New York City Trade Center and the British London Trade Center traded, the price of the shipping contract in July was significantly over 6% and 5%, especially In New York, oil prices totaled $ 42.45, creating a new high record of oil futures trading in 1983. Although the direct impact on the overall securities market in the same day is relatively limited, the three major indices of the US stocks have hit, it seems that the increase in oil prices has been empty, but the futures market traders believe that the problem of rising oil prices still has deteriorated. Cohen, the trader of the New York City Trade Center, believes that due to the lack of standard measuring formulas, the gasoline market is relatively complex, supplying business cannot be good, according to the market demand plan, its result is strong in the futures market. In this case, once there is Venezuelan's internal affairs, the Middle East has turmoil, the oil price is raised from $ 50, or the possibility of $ 60 a barrel is absolutely present. Norrez, petroleum analysts, said that it is actually an oil low during a year. At the end of the year, the market oil will rise sharply. Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, the amount of oil will be treated during the peak period. So I think oil prices have fallen before the peak of oil in the end of the year, and the oil prices are in high, and the dramatic shock will continue until the end of this year, even longer. "Although the most recent oil prices are in the past, it is caused by the two hearts caused by the world's largest oil-exporting country, but causing oil prices. The long-term reasons, relatively complex. In addition to the increase in oil demand for international economic growth, additional fees with the increase in oil prices, and finally look at the status and supply status of natural gas fuel production in the US oil and country. Some experts It is believed that since Bush is done, the M & A of the US Petrochemical Refining Company is increasing. According to Bloomberg Cycling Company, from 2001, the petrochemical company acquisition has been 33, with a total amount of up to 19.5 billion US dollars. And actually in the United States The quantity of the refined company has begun since the 1990s. Due to the difficulty of declaration approval, the cost of refining the factory is in 1976, the United States has no new oil refining facilities. Plus the merger and acquisition, the US refinery quantity From 1977 to 2002, from 282, it fell to 153. Although the production efficiency after the merger continuously increased, the US refinery's refining capacity increased by 2.4%, but at the same time, the US consumers used oil volume. Rising 27%. In addition, the US refinery has a negative impact on market share due to a large group of market share, and the choice of gasoline is retorned. According to common statistics, the information is displayed: from 1993 From the year to 2003, the market share of the five major refineries rose from 35% to 52%; 10 major refineries in the United States increased from 56% in refining market, up to 79%; the US Federal Consumer Association's information display, In 2000, 77% of the US East Board and 67% of the West Coast were monopolized by the four giants of the American refinery. The standard Puba's economic expert Wis believes that the current price of gasoline prices increase is because the supply is short, the other half reason It is caused by the shortage of domestic refining facilities. At the same time, from the environmental protection perspective, the gasoline quality standards have also been plagued in many aspects of gasoline supply. "The oil price is high, and it will often make the refinement manufacturers in huge profits. Production to get rich profits, improve market supply, and thus alleviate the difficulty of high oil prices. In the early 1990s, large refinery increased capital investment by 20% to 30% in response to oil prices to expand production capacity. However, in the case of this year's oil prices, the US petrochemical production refineries, including Exxon Mobil, Chevrontexaco, have not increased signs of investment to expand production. Experts believe that the reason for US manufacturers refuse to increase production is to worry about 1998 and 1999, oil prices slide sharply to $ 10 a barrel, and the business profits of expanding investment vendors have been repeatedly frustrated. Therefore, in the case of the high-level period of oil prices, it will not be easily increased in the case of not counting. At the same time, the recent depreciation of the US dollar, the price of oil prices marked with the US dollar, but also enables manufacturers to increase their reservations to invest in investment. The small oil projects currently in China, Mexico, Russia, etc., are also rapidly expanding, and the severity of oil supply shortage problems may not be as serious as people think about people. However, experts from the International Energy Association said that although the global energy resources have a rich, if manufacturers don't want to increase their investment to expand production, the world funds will be restricted within a considerable period of time. According to the current environmental development of the global economic development, the investment in mining and refining requires at least $ 69 billion a year, and the current real investment amount is far from this number.
