Look at this topic, many people first respond is wrong. The renminbi faces huge appreciation stress, why not depreciate? Nice, an external appreciation, depreciation of the internal international market, the renminbi VS US dollar is appreciated, and the domestic RMB vs is depreciated.
1, US dollar formula: A very important formula is the foundation of all our analysis: US dollar quotation = RMB offer * exchange rate. Such as one of the Chinese tea cup, the price is 4 yuan, the RMB exchange rate is 8.27, the tea cup is sold to the United States, the offer is 4 / 8.27 = 0.5 yuan. The United States complained that China is too cheap, the price of $ 0.5 makes Americans are uncommon, and Bush wants to do every way, let China's Chinese goods from 0.5 to 0.7-0.8.
The official media turned to emphasize that the United States is strongly systemic exchange rate appreciation, the exchange rate appreciation is 1: 5, the US dollar offer automatically rises to 4/5 = 0.8 US dollars, there is nothing competitive.
In fact, there are two on the right side of the equation --- exchange rate, RMB offer. Americans have another conspiracy, if China is inflation, the cup is sold to 7 yuan, then 7 / 8.27 = 0.8 US dollars, the same purpose.
2, inflation: The inflation is coming, overnight, the price rises up, the electric coal mine oil is gap, the economy is too hot. What causing the economy overheating? According to the caliber of the central bank, it is excessive investment in automobiles, steel, electrolytic aluminum and other industries. But the root cause of excessive investment is the price increase. The root of price increase is the root cause of overheating, and the demand is overheated? The central bank officials are gone, and they can't answer.
At the exchange rate of 8.27, a means of Americans is to impact RMB systems with as much as possible. The fixed exchange rate is similar to a sitting system, the selling disk is too much, and the guardian will take the price. How many Americans have to be taken, and the central bank has to pick up. Otherwise, this 8.27 is in the name of the name, and it will not achieve the purpose of helping the company's export.
In the past year, a lot of hot money floods to China, and Americans can be described as crazy - China's fundamental is very strong, and the US consortium is full of confidence, and the source of speculation is endless. At the end of the year, the central bank bought $ 500 million a day, and a total of 160 billion US dollars were bought a year. From January to June 2004, it bought 70 billion huge and foreign exchange reserves reached $ 470 billion.
The central banks and commercial banks have a great difference, the commercial bank resources are limited, and old money; commercial banks buy and sell foreign exchange, will not affect financial stability. The central bank is a banknotes and has a coin. In theory, the central bank's connections are unlimited. After some limited flow funds in hand, you can start the printing machine, print new money, and then under the dollar.
But new money has a new money --- new banknotes, after the end of life. The Americans want this effect. A large number of newly printed RMB flows into the market will lead to the disaster of price systems.
The amplification factor of China's commercial bank is approximately 2.5-3.5. Last year, M2 monetary volume increased from 18 trillion to 22 trillion. If there is no dollar tide, the loan is even reduced, and commercial banks will pay off, and the credit is uncontrolled.
The new increase of 4 trillion currency is too big for economies with only 10 trillion GDP. How much money is more, can the price do not rise? The price is rising, and the production enterprise will not be very fast, try to start working? There is so-called economic overheating. That is, the contact exchange rate causes the RMB to be underestimated, and the Americans impact the RMB, the money supply increases, the price increases, and the economy is overheating. With Greenspan's words, if China insists that they do not appreciate, their own currency will come out.
3, fish and bear paur: If the renminbi is underestimated, Americans must be willing to exchange the dollar into RMB, eventually leading to excessive renminbi, inflation. The economy is balanced. You insist on fixed exchange rates, I will use the dollar to rush your renminbi, and ultimately lead your inflation and lose competitiveness. Fish and bear's paw are not part of it, is it to choose a fixed exchange rate or choose a stable price? The central attitude is clear, and the fixed exchange rate is the basic national policy for long-term adherence. Last year, the pressure of 7 countries was considered to be a major gain of diplomatic vertical and horizontal. According to the Chinese people's consistent ideas, the enemy's enemy is our friend. The US advice, it can be done. US must value our appreciation, we biaudicate.
But what is the fact, or it is clear: the exchange rate rises, the beneficiary is the RMB holder, the 1.3 billion people. You can easily go to the Caribbean beach vacation, even a young and beautiful Malaysian wife.
The exchange rate does not rise, the words of domestic inflation, benefiting the government and banks. As the largest debtor, tens of thousands of bad accounts should shrink accordingly, it is easier to repay, and the government has won a large number of coins to cope with financial expenses.
Wealth has only one, and the fish and bear's pauses are unable to come. In short, the people went to the Caribbean vaccination, but they didn't have money to marry a house, Malla, and these money will be used to fill the state-owned bank's deficit.
Overall, with national interests, filling banks is always more important than going to the beach, but should still explain the people clearly, the central choice, who is the beneficiary, who is the victim.
4, real estate: a strange phenomenon of a new round of hot coins is the purchase of real estate, not the traditional stock and bonds. International exchange funds, paying attention to radiopa, require high circulation, low risk, fixed income. From this perspective, bond is the best choice, some short-term debt benefits, and even become a national exchange rate.
Relatively speaking, stocks will not be favored because the fluctuations are too large, and the yield is not determined. In general, real estate is not the choice of tourism, because the circulation is really too bad, and thousands of houses, each set of listings must be evaluated separately. Single sales, it is simply a nightmare of tourism.
But in China, the price is gradually moving toward the United States. In the end, the RMB offer changes, or the exchange rate changes, there is no bottom in the hearts of the money. In fact, the central government adheres to the determination of fixed exchange rates and cannot be underestimated. Therefore, the best choice is to buy real estate. Once the exchange rate of 8.27 does not change, but internal inflation, the price will rise with prices. Whether the exchange rate rises, or the price is rising, the real estate is suitable.
Walking is lively, walking in the way. At present, 8.27 is unbreakable; simply exchange the dollar to the primary speculators of the RMB, will suffer a devastating blow.
5, macro control: There is a large vulnerability in regulation, that is, the impact of domestic foreign capital is different. The domestic capital is dying, foreign investment is like a fish. Under the regulation, there are more than a dozen banks in Jiangsu Province, and the private enterprises are almost slaughtered. Domestic companies will no longer have loans, expand their capacity, and no longer seize the market.
The central government has gone in China, but it can't manage international silver roots. At present, Silvergen is unprecedented, the international market, but the lowest interest rate in 45 years, loosely, foreign-funded enterprises can finance a lot.
We have been very painful, and when domestic companies are generally discontinued, foreign companies are heartless. Some foreign scholars shouted China to slow down, slow down, and their own companies were in a hurry.
The German Volkswagen added two production lines, and Guangzhou Honda added a one, Dado cast a billion real estate project in Shanghai, and he bought a billion mortgage property of CCB. Administrative orders stipulate that banks are not allowed to be a personal mortgage of the lowest default rate of banking systems, and a German bank in Tianjin does not even have a 3% discount interest rate. I don't know if foreign experts are watching more or watching, but we know that total production capacity does not decline. The only difference is that domestic investment makes a few steps, foreign investment will advance.
In a complete market economy system, tightening the silver roots, the currency is reduced, the supply is tight, and the exchange rate has risen accordingly. When implementing a tightening monetary policy, the beta will not be loan, and foreign investment will pay more investment costs because of the increase in exchange rate; an older story is, the fixed exchange rate, the foreign investment will be unintended to offset the tightening monetary policy. However, the regulation of fixed exchange rates is only bitter, and it is cheaper.
Domestic silver roots are very tight, foreign silver roots are very loose; national enterprises are dying, foreign companies are like fish. The fixed exchange rate plus macroeconomic regulation, which leads to a big loophole, causing state-owned enterprises to crash, and the big market share is hand.
In fact, the solution to the solution is simple, and investment adjustment taxes are imposed on certain industries. All state-owned enterprises that do not increase production capacity are not allowed to enter, and they will pay for additional taxes. Further, if you feel that a certain industry capacity is too large, the first factory should cut off the factory, and the regulation should start from foreign companies. If you think that the automotive industry can be too big, the first cut should be Guangzhou Honda, Guangzhou Mazda. The dismsive national enterprises will be in the foreigners, and they cut off the market share of the people enterprises, and they have always been the thinking of the rulers.
7, Japan model: From a macroeconomic economy, China is increasingly like Japan in the 80-90s, increasingly replicating Japanese models. Like Japan in the 1990s, China is also an export-oriented country. It is hoped to use lower exchange rate subsidies, and it is also facing the export of exemptions, and has to resolve the inflation caused by foreign exchange accounts.
In the case of currency flooding, how to maintain export competitiveness, maintain the export-oriented economy to take a long time? Japan's countermeasures is that further distorting price systems, there is no price increase, and there are no price increases. Japan's grapes sells to one dollar one. Japan's watermelon is sold to $ 30. But in any case, it is more exaggerated than the real estate prices of Japan.
Real estate is a typical domestic sales department, 99% of the real estate payment, is domestic people. Many people think that the price is too high, which will lead to the city's business costs, loss of competitiveness -, in fact, this is a misunderstanding, a large multinational company, real estate, employee room only accounts for 8% of total cost, even It is more than a small phone bill for some companies.
The price of real estate, 99% is burdened by the local people, and the remaining 1% of the remaining is also divided into industrial real estate, commercial real estate, civilian real estate. The residential building in ordinary cities can be very expensive, but industrial land can be very cheap, the government can have a conscious subsidy.
The government can obtain a lot of taxes from real estate, so a huge wealth can be used to create airports, pier, improve infrastructure; or high export tax rebate, or provide preferential projects.
The real estate cause is a typical exploitation of domestic trade, subsidized foreign trade. Subsidy to use the people to subsidize export competitiveness, and even say that the higher the price, the stronger export competition. Nowadays, China will also take the old road in Japan --- low exchange rate caused in extensive extension, triggering inflation pressure. The government will lead to real estate, let the people pay, and the foreign trade export industry is not damaged. 99% of the departmental department is always a good place to vent the inflation. Real estate, transportation, medical, education, is not the case.
Japan exports a color inkjet printer worth 750 yuan. For China's annual export of 100,000 units, worth 75 million yuan. When Tokyo is a very common apartment, value and export to a country's printer, the real estate cause of Tokyo has collapsed, and the distorted price system will never maintain. Now, Japan's land is the most expensive world, and Japan's export is the strongest worldwide. Even if you experience a crash, regardless of the pain index of the people's livelihood, Japan is still the strongest country in the world.
8. Conclusion: The economy is a living thing, and any distortion will not have a long time, and it is necessary to pay for the twisted. China is pursuing export advantages, human twisted RMB exchange rate - no matter whether the RMB is not appreciated, as long as the fundamental face, the United States can find weaknesses, throwing RMB. Long-term adherence to fixed exchange rates, the United States will use dollar to impact RMB, expand money supply, and ultimately lead to inflation. If you learn Japanese models, distort the domestic prices, use real estate to vent inflation power, will extend the exchange rate to the exchange rate, the future, not only the room rate soared, the bowl of the big gear in the door will rise to 30 yuan.
