Comment - What do you think of when you think about the future of IT?
I think discussing software development and calculating the future of the world is a very hurtful thing. Such a variety of variables suddenly occur, and it is necessary to predict the future like science fiction. Remember the "Jordan" we have heard about the market forecast of Dot COM explosion? You will find why skeptics are so easy.
However, there is a person who has made many predictions for future technology, he is grady booch. He recently said that the subject of the Rational User Conference did firmly grabbed my ears.
Grady Booch is IBM Fellow, and one of the three founders of UML.
His theme speech topic is "celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Rational Rational", and Grady lived 30 years in advance of the 50th anniversary of Rational Rational. After the history of computers and IBMs before 2004. Grady uses various factors such as sociology, technology, politics, economics and history, forecasting the future trend of 2034 - very interesting to think - also inspired the software future.
Booch's interesting views about future forecasts are: * The population will be stable at 8.8 billion; * People are managed by the government on behalf of the government; * Nano technology is increasingly used; * Remote operation weapons, human beings do not need to participate; * Java, etc. The programming language and XML become "heritage"; * All news and entertainment are spread through the Internet; * Moore's law is no longer effective, which leads to software development no longer "sloppy"; * Personal computer will include multiple processors, owned A Petabyte's main memory, an exopriation of an exabyte; * Personal computer will be wearable (or embedded), the software will embed the device; * Most programmers are still in the "Object" in the book writing algorithm. * Java will be the last language; * The network will become a daily necessities in the world; * Lawyers will become a member of the ordinary development team;
By 2020 we will completely rely on software life. Exciting and inspiring is that Booch believes that most of the software used in 2034 has not been developed.
He said, "Every trend in the 2034 world has some software, but these software did not appear in 2004."
Although the future of 30 years may be completely different from BOOCH forecast, it is very interesting to think about the real potential of the software industry - not only to consider technology, and we must consider the real world application and future demand.
Readers are interested in the full PPT, you can download here: http://www.booch.com/architecture/blog/artifacts/anniversary.ppt
