American Wishera Focus on China's Oil Problem
China's demand for oil has become a global concern. Only in early April 2004, there were a few worldwide news related to China's oil issues. On April 6, the Chinese government announced that it was 200 million barrel of oil in Victory Oilfield. On April 7, the US "Washington Post" reported that China has been lost to Japan in the Siberian oil battle. On April 8th, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that whether it is "the big line" or "Ann", the Chinese government did not see the official decision of the Russian government. China hopes that the Chinese Russian crude oil pipeline project is implemented as soon as possible, the Sino-Russian crude oil pipeline project is one of the reality, major cooperative projects between China and Russia, and it is also the statement of the Sino-Russian leaders repeatedly clarified. Focusing on this series of new progress, China's oil problem has become the focus of American media and energy experts. Then, in their eyes, whether China's oil will bring disputes with the surrounding countries that will lead to the US containest policy, where is China's oil future? In this issue, "Washington Observer" weekly visited several famous wisks in the United States. How to watch "Overline" and "Anner Line" for the United States Strategic and International Studies, the head of the International Studies, Robert E. Ebel, the current "Robert E. EBEL) Anda "Anner" two-line dispute says "Washington Observing" weekly, "From Russia's perspective, it is more inclined to build oil pipelines from East Siberia to Pacific Nakago. Because Japan's oil fields, you can also provide oil, including Southeast Asia. "So, will Russia respond to China's appeal, establish an overline?" Ebel said: "I know the interest of the Chinese government to this program. But I can't see how much interests to the Russians." "" "" "" "Russia only leads to China to China I didn't even end because they didn't want to tie themselves only in a market. But the oil pipelines from East Siberia to Pacific Nakoho Hight may include a branch line to China. In addition, Russia is increasing through railways to China Petroleum transportation. "Ebeel said. It is planned to connect to the Russian Siberian petroleum pipeline "Overline" as early as Sino-Russian countries in 1994, but later, the president of Japan and the president of Russian cooperative Eus Oil Company unknown. Japan proposes this oil pipeline from Agalsk to the Pacific Port Nahoda. The Pentagon Consultant, the Naval War College, THOMAS Barnett, also believes that "Overline" has already died. "I think, as far as is currently, Japan has defeated China. Although there will be repeated, this is a heavy blow to China." Bayt said to "Washington observation". "China should learn from the market lesson. When both parties urgently need something, it will win, and Russia will certainly follow the money," Bayt said, "all this Explanation, China and Russian-Japanese relations that have been dominated by all kinds of ideology and hostility in the past few decades have been fully dominated by money. "James H. Nolt, senior researcher, World Policy Institute (James H. Nolt) In an interview with "Washington observation" weekly, it is considered that the land is not fully died. "For huge oil pipeline projects, funds and technical requirements are high. Japan has a high price, but Chinese if the same or higher price may take the business back." Dr. Na Tei also believed that the oil pipe The road is commercial competition, and there is no major relationship with geographical competition.
Cato Insitute Researcher, the editor of "Regulation), Peter Vandore, is considered that it is not important to have an oil pipe. He said that the oil pipe is much better than that is not good, but it thinks that the direction of the tubing and the geographic location will affect the destiny of the fate of oil purchases in the world. "The analysts of foreign policy are too emphasized that the geopolitical ingredients of the pipeline are not truly understood how the World Oil Market is working. The geographic location of the oil pipe will not determine where oil flow is, if China bought oil in the world's oil market, It can still be obtained by oil, "Dollang's observation of" Washington "weekly," At that time, China did not get the advantage of the oil pipe, but it doesn't have to invest it. "Dollang believes that some strategic analysts said. The geosetic strategy control of oil is not much speculation. Will the United States have China "oil containment"? In addition to the "Overline", another problem that is concerned about China may be the United States. After the Iraq war, the United States has basically controlled the production of oil in the Middle East, and the impact of the Central Asian region in the oil reservoir is increasing. Some scholars believe that the United States may conduct "oil containment" in China in the future. But Dr. Ebel directly denied this view. He said that the United States is impossible for China's oil embargo. "Because the United States has no capacity to affect oil and gas production in the Middle East and Central Asia." Dr. Dollang in the Graphology also believes that the US has no capacity of the international oil market. . "It is very difficult to implement large-scale oil embargo, because you need to send extremely huge naval to a long Chinese coast. This is almost impossible," Dollang's observation of "Washington" weekly report, "ban It is only a political attachment. From the economic speaking, its effect is very limited. "Dollang Example said that the embargo in the 1970s OPEC output country has actually not impact on the United States, Just increase the cost of transportation. At that time, many oils were purchased by a third country, and these third countries immediately transferred and sold to the United States. "People give too many foreign policy significance to the International Petroleum Market," Dollang said, "But the country selling resources is first in the international market, the enemy friend relationship is the second. Saudi Arabia is the United States Allies, but Secretary of State Powell went to Saudi to reduce the price in a few weeks ago, increasing production, but there is no result. Norway is the US ally, but it is not low to give the United States, it is not low. "James, Senior Research, World Policy Research Institute NauTe believes that the interests of US oil companies do not agree with the interests of the Government, and in some cases, it will even be opposite to the government's interests. Therefore, this container has occurred very small. "In the foreseeable future, China may compete with the United States in order to control the oil resources of Southeast Asia and Central Asia," NauThi said on "Washington observation" weekly report, "But I don't think this will develop into force conflicts, because the United States The allies are absolutely advantageous. Indirect conflicts are still possible, for example, China will receive the US advantage through support for US unfriendly producer countries. "But, Nauza believes that if the Taiwan War occurs, there is a Taihai War It may happen to China's embargo. He said, "If the mainland has launched a military attack on Taiwan, it may face an embargo. This is dependent on the situation. If Taiwan announces independence, China will block Taiwan, and in order to achieve blockade, it is possible to attack foreign countries. Boat. In this case, the United States may organize economic boycots. At that time, it is not only oil embargo. "Barnett believes that the United States to conduct oil contained in China is a very close thinking. "" Why is the United States to block China's oil channel? China is one of the most important trading partners in the United States, is the most important labor source of American multinational companies. Although the economic competition between China and the United States will become more intense in the future, This competition cannot be solved by military opposition.
"Barnett also said that China continues to invest in the US Treasury to the US Treasury. The US Treasury issued more than 1 billion bonds in the first quarter of 2003 for the Iraq war. And these Most of the bonds include foreign purchases, including China. Therefore, China actually has money for the United States in Iraq. Will oil make China and surrounding countries have tense, the Chinese government visits China outside Japan It reiterates China's sovereignty on Diaoyu Islands, and an important reason for the island sovereign dispute is because there may be rich oil. In addition, there is a dispute between China and ASU countries to dispute with some island of South China Sea. So, China's energy The need to increase whether the relationship between it and the surrounding countries? Senior researcher James Nauch in the World Policy Research Institute said, "Washington Observing" weekly report, in fact, China has been in the South China Sea Resource control has occurred disputes, and even a small-scale force conflict with Vietnam and the Philippines. But he believes that China and Japan and Russia have a small possibility of conflict in energy, unless a dispute in some departments. " This kind of power conflict with power is unable to solve, because all parties have a foreign country, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom, which is rich in marine drill oil, "NauTe," but these private companies Whether you can't cast your own large amount of funds to a controversial area. They will ask for disputes in peace before large-scale mining. "Na Ten believes that" China and Russian potential conflicts may come from their influence on those Central Asian oil-producing countries, which are fragile and unstable. But today, the impact of Sino-Russia is declining, which is advantageous for oil companies in the United States and the United Kingdom. "Dr. Ebel believes that the relationship between China and the surrounding countries will not be nervous in the future, but it will become China's important oil and natural gas supply countries; Japan and China's trade has also increased significantly. Trade will make political relationships close. Barnett agreed with this point. He said that Japan is an important investment country and trading partner in China. Both parties depend on external energy, and I hope to get oil from the local rather than the Middle East. Therefore, oil problem In the end, China and Japan will cooperate. As for the South China Sea, Barnet said, "said frankly, there is actually not much oil in the South China Sea). "Whether China's new oil field can be relieved? China Petroleum Department announced on April 6 that China has found a new 2 billion barrel of oil in Shengli Oilfield in Shandong, and claims that this discovery will reduce the dependence of China's international oil. But Ai Dr. Bell is proud of this. He said: "We need to know more details about discovery. Even if oil is found, it has to be 5-7 years. Therefore, no matter what this discovery is affecting China's oil supply, it is also the future, there is no impact on the current. "Since this Ebull said," China is working hard to increase domestic oil production to reduce the dependence on the international oil market, but what will not increase in the future in the future. James NauTe's View of the World Policy Research Institute and the view of Ebel. He believes: "This discovery is very important, but it is necessary to see how high it is. In addition, considering its huge population, China will still be a major oil importer in the foreseeable future. "The Graph Research Institute's Dollan Researcher has conducted a more in-depth analysis from the perspective of economics:" The price of oil is determined by the world market. Whether you import a barrel or 16 million barrels of oil, your country's oil prices are still determined by the world market. "He said," China has found that domestic oil resources is important, but regardless of China's oil consumption comes from import, China's domestic oil prices is determined by the World Oil Market. Suppose 99.9% of China's petroleum consumption comes from China, only 0.1% come from imports, but this 0.1% will determine the price of the World Oil Market and China's domestic oil market. "Dollan example said that the Netherlands and the United Kingdom have oil and natural gas supply in the North Sea.
