Reflection: China is not optimistic about industrialization
Posted by: Zhangcao author: Yuejian Yong Source: "Reading" Issue Date: 2004-08-1011: 31: 49.077
【Abstract】 Since 1998, in the case of the overall economic trend of the world economy, China's economic growth has been "a distinguished", and the macroeconomic indicators are very encouraging. However, the degree of industrialization in a country is fundamentally reflected in the manufacturing industry in the country, especially the overall technical level of the equipment manufacturing industry.
Since 1998, in the case of the overall economic trend of the world economy, China's economic growth has been "a branch", and the macroeconomic indicators are very encouraging. In 2003, China's economic growth rate was as high as 9.1%, the first world's first; the increase in industrial production and corresponding fixed asset investment was rare, especially steel production reached 240 million tons, more than the sum of the United States and Japan; Good support, foreign exchange reserves more than $ $ 400 billion, second only to Japan. These macro-good performances have made the public at home and abroad praised China's industrialization has achieved brilliant achievements. However, the degree of industrialization in a country is fundamentally reflected in the manufacturing industry in the country, especially the overall technical level of the equipment manufacturing industry. The relevant research shows that in addition to the world level in a very small number of cutting-edge technology, such as bioengineering and military-related aerospace industry, the basic industries have a huge gap compared to developed countries compared to developed countries. A group of multinational companies that have mastered world advanced technology in the manufacturing industry is a significant feature of developed countries to achieve industrialization process. These multinational companies currently control the main part of world trade and investment; and the independent innovation capability of Chinese companies Quite weak, has not yet produced a global competitive multinational company. The import and export status of a country can reflect the level of internationalization, and its export commodity structure directly reflects the technical level of the manufacturing industry. However, since foreign companies have occupied the half-Wanjiang Mountain of China International Trade, and since 2001, multinational companies in developed countries have accelerated the pace of transferring manufacturing industry to China, and transfer to China's foreign manufacturing and reduced import barriers. The manufacturing industry in China has formed a more severe two-sided festival, and the technical level of Chinese goods is more representative of foreign companies. Therefore, the analysis of China's economy cannot leave China's increasingly integration into the background of the World Economic System, but must consider international trade and international investment on China's economic and industrialization. In 2003, China's import and export volume reached $ 851.2 billion, ranking to the world, but China's trade dependence (import and export volume accounted for the specific gravity of gross domestic product) close to 70%, exceeding the average level of developed countries. 3 times The above, the high and economic structure of trade risks can be seen. Carefully analyze China's import and export status will find that the proportion of general trade exports in China's economy has further decline, the decline in tariffs and the reduction in non-tariff measures have caused imports, resulting in a consecutive year in a consecutive year. . In 2003, China's 438.4 billion US dollars in exports, general trade exports were $ 182.9 billion, accounting for 41.5%, and processing trade was $ 241.9 billion, accounting for 55.2%. General trade import and export deficit is $ 5.67 billion, while processing trade achieves 78.91 billion US dollars, in addition to the deficit of other trade methods ($ 47.71 billion), China's foreign trade overall surplus is 25.54 billion US dollars in 2003. Despite this, China's general trade and processing trade, which is constantly strengthening, which means that the actual benefits from exporting to the national economy are increasingly limited. From the trading subject, the export of state-owned enterprises that have been mainly engaged in general trade in the long run, accounting for 31.5% of total exports; foreign-funded enterprises export $ 24.3 billion, accounting for 54.8%. In terms of trade balance, state-owned enterprises have 445 billion US dollars, and foreign companies share 8.43 billion US dollars, non-state-owned enterprises (here, including collective, private and other enterprises) surplus $ 21.56 billion. It can be seen that China's trade surplus mainly comes from processing trade, and the main body of processing trade is precisely foreign investment and non-state-owned enterprises. Foreign investions and exports were generally deficit before 1998, indicating that the strategic focus of previous foreign companies is to occupy the Chinese market.
Since 1998, foreign-funded enterprises have always maintained trade surplus. In this year (2001) China has joined the World Trade Organization, promised to implement "Trims related to trade-related investment measures" (TRIMS), no longer impulse export ratios, foreign exchange Balance and domestic parts procurement obligations, the import of foreign companies has increased significantly. In 2003, foreign-funded enterprises imported $ 231.9 billion, accounting for 56.2% of total imports, China's processing trade imports were $ 162.9 billion, which did not consider the limited processing trade volume of state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises. These two numbers The difference between the foreign-funded enterprises indicated that foreign-funded enterprises have achieved the leading advantages in the Chinese market, which has considerable control for the Chinese market; on this basis, foreign-funded enterprises, especially multinational companies are starting to use China's low cost Production advantages, incorporate China into its global distribution system, began to export to the world market. Peter Nolan, the University of Cambridge, British, believes that in the case of economic globalization, multinational companies rely on global market, global brands and global procurement systems (Global Procurement System) Global competition. Therefore, foreign companies have risen in China's trade share, meaning that foreign-funded enterprises have strengthened the overall competitive advantage of China's local industries. Daniel Rosen, an economist of the International Economics Institute (The Institute for International Economics) confirmed this conclusion from the other side. Russen found in 2002 in 2002, in 2002, in 2002, in 2002, only $ 68 billion (5% slightly) was listed as "high-tech" products in the official statistical department. Further research found that these products do not really belong to the "high-tech", most of which are parts or low-profit home appliances, such as DVD players. Even if these barely referred to as "high-tech" products, 85% of them are also produced by foreign companies. In the remaining 15%, state-owned enterprises account for 11%, and private companies only account for 2%. This shows that in the high-tech field, China's domestic industries are in the marginalized state. However, due to the disadvantages of various domestic economic systems, there is still a competitive advantage of foreign investment in terms of domestic capital, which will undoubtedly strengthen the competitive advantage of foreign capital, further compress domestic enterprises, especially private enterprises, from At all weaken the foundation of China's industrialization. It is this kind of international trade distorted the overall appearance of China's import and export, which has made people an illusion that China is in the original Korea and Japan quickly promotes industrialization. Such a class ratio is not appropriate, the basis of industrialization is the technical progress of the national industry. If China has achieved more interests in developing countries through international trade, it is not only the progress of China's domestic industry technology, and domestic wage costs are also It is inevitable that China will expand foreign investment in technology for carriers. In other words, the surplus on the regular account in the balance sheet will be offset by the deflation of the capital account, so that the balance of payments is basically balanced. In fact, in the years, the trade surplus and huge foreign exchange reserves have masked the reality of China's industrialization. The deflation of China's general trade is mainly from high-tech products (such as integrated circuits and CNC machine tools, especially for semiconductors.
