Author: yo trace (Sheila) Homepage: Seamless yo (Sheila) Source: past yo, years no trace - Sims blog profile: a lengthy past, years no trace - Sims blog Posted: August 6, 2004 Day 14:04 Channel: Reference Column: Newspaper Collection: 15 Comments: 0 words: 5557 Southern Weekend 2004-08-05 15:59:54 ■ Monthly thesis □ Xue Yong editor Press: Problems and concept is public intellectual Main care. Today, after the reform era, the joint problem affects China's future issues; in the face of real complexity, the presentation and subversion of the concept. These are all the problems that many readers have been thinking. Monthly thesis intends to add fire to this kind of thinking, a topic is launched every month, aiming to leave a public discourse space discussed to discuss these issues. We know that any simplification of truth is dangerous. Therefore, we have made abundant space, and we also look forward to being interested in patients with patient taste. Based on the same reason, we are eager to look forward to the reader's response and criticism. Not long ago, the author published a "Beware of University Foam" in "Southern Weekend", pointing out that China is mainly an industrial society, not a service industry. The protagonist of China's economic development is still a blue-collar worker, and it is a white-collar worker that is college education or aid. China is currently pursuing the "World First-class University" education strategy, ignores the service of labor and cultivating too many college students. I didn't expect that the "Southern Weekend" in the same period was published in the newspaper. This is undoubtedly a most powerful support for the author's point of view. At present, China is actually some of the well-educated college students can't find a job, and the migrant workers who have not been educated are in some places, almost have a shortage of labor markets in all countries, which can be described as a world. Unfortunately, Chinese society has lacks understanding of this distorted labor market, and less people discuss the corresponding countermeasures. The author has been suggested that China should consider industrial strategies of high wages, high welfare, high labor productivity, and do not keep the short-term advantages of low labor costs. But this is said that many employers do not want to pay for the minimum wages for migrant workers, they are not far from the time. However, China will eventually have to face high salary development strategies. Now we are facing "Millennium", may provide an opportunity for China's economic structure reform. The essence of "Millennium" is also the development strategy of China in the early 1970s in the early 1970s. As we all know, due to the success of reforms, China and today's China today are economical is completely two "countries". 25 years ago, China's poor washing, there is no basic development fund, in addition to the low-cost human resources, walking labor-intensive roads, don't have a way. Today, China has completed the initial capital accumulation, and soon, it will face the crisis of labor brought by population aging. However, we did not complete the necessary strategic transformation based on these two completely different economic reality. According to the data quoted in 1979, in 1977, China's GDP is only 37.3 billion US dollars, with only $ 378 in per capita. But "four modern" plans need to spend $ 800 billion in 1985 (the above data is based on the US dollar value). It can be said that China is a country that is almost extremely poor, there is no development, and the country that is required to pay for modernization, can only rely on export oil and use rich labor for foreign processing products. Today, China's GDP is about 150 billion yuan in the US dollar, and it is almost 3 times, and the per capita GDP is 1120 dollars, and it is almost twice. China has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves to enjoy a considerable trade surplus.
China finally has the capital! At the same time, those resources that we can do in the past 25 years ago: Today, oil will not only be exported, but China has become one of the world's largest oil importers. This is not a dream in the late 1970s. The next question we should ask, the problem, the problem that I can't think of: is rich in cheap labor, whether it will also follow the oil resources of the oil resources, and ultimately caught in depletion? This problem, a joke mentioned a year ago. China is lacking, the least is people. However, the emergence of "people in the people" reminds us: China will develop to the primate in the morning and evening. The current "Migrant Workers" is only the shortage of manager we see, and there will be we can't see it in the future. For example, the relevant experts are expected to go to the beginning of this year to early next year, the import and export quota system of world costumes and textiles may be canceled. This will cause huge shocks in the World Economic and Labor Market. China will become the main beneficiary country of this giant change. According to the estimation quoted by the Financial Times, once this trade barrier is completely pushing, China's textile exports will increase, and the share of the US market will increase from now on 16% to 50%. Exports to other developed countries will also grow in a similar speed. In other words, China's clothing and textile exports may be doubled in just a few years. Apparel and textile manufacturing are one of the most important labor-intensive industries, hired 40 million workers in the world. If China grabs half of this market, only about 20 million labor at least in this industry. This is no strange, some foreign companies have begun to complain that they are getting more and more difficult to find clothing in China. More than ten years later, China will enter the aging society, and the relative shortage of young labor will further intensify. If we don't have the corresponding countermeasures, this issue will be more intensified after ten years, seriously affect China's development. Developing the economy for the premise of unnecessary energy, naturally cause huge energy waste, eventually triggering an energy crisis. Similarly, the development of the economy in the premise of not worry, it will cause huge labor waste, which will eventually face the labor crisis. This development strategy in sitting in a cheap labor, causing three direct evil: first, because China's labor is too cheap, manufacturers are reluctant to invest in update technologies and improve workers' labor productivity. Because new technologies have saved manpower, they need to invest. If the human is too cheap, then the money to buy equipment is not as good as used several workers. Some international economies pointed out that China is in a low-tech trap. Even some of the foreign businessmen who have new technologies, it is preferred to hire more cheap workers in China, and use less expensive advanced equipment. This greatly affects the improvement of China's labor productivity. Second, due to the strategic advantage of cheap labor, there is a serious neglect on the rights of labor. The report of "Millennium" is particularly mentioned that some desperate manufacturers, in order to attract workers to take out extra preferential conditions, one is actually "salary monthly"! It can be seen that many migrant workers cannot be expected to take wages on moon. This undoubtedly makes China's major industrial army becomes a poverty class, which cannot enter the middle row, which cannot be used as consumers to stimulate domestic demand and become the driving force for future economic development. Third, we regard the migrant workers like oil, it seems to be a "natural resource", and it seems to be exhausted, inexhaustible, usually do not cultivate, it is necessary to recruit, no need to throw away . If companies only look at the interests, put the workers as temporary work, come to the way, and then go, once the workers are dismissal or "retired in advance", they may lose labor skills due to long-term unemployment. This undoubtedly accelerates the "depreciation rate" of the existing labor army. At the same time, the serious neglect of basic education, especially rural education, as well as discrimination against foreign population, so that a large number of migrant workers are out of school.
Once we need to improve the industry level, improve the technical requirements of workers, next-generation workers will immediately have problems with lack of necessary education. Low salary, low education, low technology, low labor productivity, high labor elimination rate. In the four low a high premise, we can only further increase the demand for cheap labor. However, with the development of China's economy, the living standards in coastal areas have greatly improved. Today, China's per capita GDP has been flat with countries such as Indonesia, exceeding many developing countries. For example, now the labor price of China's clothing and textile industry has reached 2.5-3 per day, more than double the level of 1-1.5 US dollars per day. Even some countries in the Caribbean area around the US, labor is also cheap than China. It is foreseeable that 10 years later, more and more labor power will be cheaper than China, and our low salary advantage is difficult to maintain. At the same time, after 15 years, China's population aging, the population raised by each labor force increases, labor productivity is not significantly increased, so that the remaining value produced by each labor force has risen, and it is impossible to raise an aging population. The second is based on this farview, and the author once proposed to learn from Japan. In the 1950s, Japan's post-war economy took off the labor force of cheap, Ken, and discipline. However, in the early 1960s, Japan took the initiative to give up this advantage, seeking development strategies for high salary, high welfare and high labor productivity. This not only makes Japan still have a huge effort in economic and European and America, but also maintained strong international competitiveness after entering the population aging. China did not make this strategic transition, plus institutional backwardness, has been suffering from economic development. When the Japanese company was 25 years after the war, that is, 1970, has begun to conquer the world. Japan's automobiles, electrical appliances, industrial equipment has become a famous brand of the world, and it is almost all of the high-end markets. The Japanese workers who grabbed the garbage of the US military were robbed, and now they are in the world with the highest salary, the best welfare, and the best quality. China has now reform more than 25 years, but even, it is fear of shoes, and it is necessary to top the sign of people. Workers do not say high wages, high welfare, lifelong employment, and even if there is a problem with the payment. Such strategies, the premise of success is to maintain poverty. So it can make China how far, it is conceivable. Change this situation, you need to re-think about China's economic development strategy. First, China should guarantee the basic rights and benefits of labor, and formulate reasonable minimum wage and employee benefit standards. This will undoubtedly improve the cost of labor. But properly improve labor costs will encourage companies' technological innovation and optimization management. At the same time, labor has improved income, and there are resources to invest in next-generation education, and increase the overall quality of labor after more than ten years. Otherwise, the children of the migrant workers are still migrant workers, and the blind-flowing children are still blind flow, and the Chinese people will give people the manufacturers of manufacturers. Second, encourage companies to be responsible for the long-term interests of employees, cultivate high-quality blue-collar hands. It should be said that in the 1990s, China and the United States were two biggest winners in the world economy. People have attributed the success of the two countries to the free market. As a result, the flexible labor market in the United States became ideal models using human resources. In theory, under the American style system, the boss only needs to maintain short-term employment relationships, and can be fired at any time. This not only reduces the cost of the company, but also because the boss is not worried about unwanted workers in the future, it is relatively small to hire new workers in business, so the unemployment rate of unemployment lack protection has been much lower than Europe. But the myth of this free market has been challenged at the beginning. For example, the Nobel's Economics Award winner Robert Solow has long noticed the advantages of Japan's lifelong employment system.
In the United States, a worker went to the bus factory for a few years, and immediately was dismissed immediately after the economy was not good. He had to change the industry. Results There is no speciality. The boss knows that a worker will leave for a few years, of course, is not willing to invest in education in this worker, develop its technical expertise. Japanese workers enjoy the treatment of lifelong employment. The boss knows that this worker will use this worker, only improve his lifelong technical quality, and enterprises can benefit. Therefore, the enterprise is willing to be responsible for the labor productivity of each labor, so that it is "lifetime education", and its labor quality exceeds Europe and the United States, and it is not surprising. Many of China now has a salary of migrant workers in China to be relied, and they don't have to train business. This finally, it will certainly make China unable to produce high quality blue collar. Yes, Europe's unemployment rate is higher than the US. But recently studies have shown that this unemployment rate is not necessarily a low efficiency. Although the United States is full, in the labor army, there is a large number of people to do today, and the western people will be brave. These people are very low, and the salary is also very low. In the job position, it is often the current development, and even the more you are too busy. European welfare society, waiting for spending to raise these people, let them don't go to work. If you really work, it is a unfolded employee. Therefore, although Europeans have long holiday time, good welfare, but from workers' labor productivity, enterprise profit and other data, in addition to Western European countries outside Germany, it is not more inferior to the United States. Which roads are going to go in China, of course, you still need to explore. However, even if the most extreme free economy like the United States, the factory is still to provide many basic benefits, such as the family's medical insurance, the subsidies of the child to school, etc. The famous Ford Motor Company, each car, has a cost of 1,000 dollars in the cost of employees, and the steel cost is higher than the steel costs! China's labor army is increasingly temporarily industrial. There is no basic guarantee in position and welfare. In particular, many factories have retired forty years old workers. These people returned home and the work skills degraded. During the decade, once the population aging needs some senior employees to work, these people have completely lost their ability to work, and increase the proportion of China's raising population. In contrast to the US-Japanese employment system, it can be said that the United States is a labor-intensive, Japan is a labor resource intensive. The United States is rare, there is an increased population, absorb the potential of immigrants. No one is used to import immigrants, the population is slow, and there is no labor. As a result, the use of labor is like using energy, does not pay attention to save and efficiency, and throws. Japan has a dense population, poor immigration. The population is aging, and the existing labor is growing. So hire a person, it is to use old, and let him do the longer the time for the society. China's situation is obviously closer to Japan. So, we have a good job for the already labor force. Lifelong employment system pays attention to the long-term interests of employees, and it is possible to maintain the service life of labor, maintain the quality and quantity of existing labor. Therefore, the lifelong employment system in the market economy is a business model worth exploring. Third, education should adapt to the needs of the labor market, and can no longer be educated. The current "Migrant Workers" also belongs to the surface crisis of the labor market. The deep crisis is probably labor lack of training, labor productivity is low, and it is unable to compete for more complex technology, thereby do not improve the cost of ourselves. In this regard, the country should do, is to create a fair market competition environment and encourage the development of private schools. For some of the more faculty, the large-scale school should decompose, just like the big consortium of the decomposition of monopoly after the financial crisis in the late 1990s.
