Author: Lixing Chen
Real estate industry deformity is now terrible.
With the deep macro control, the news about China's real estate may be collapsed. Professor Zhong Wei, Beijing Normal University, defined the collapse, within 12 months, one hand and second-hand housing transaction prices fell more than 30%, and the market evaluation value of the rest of the traded property stock also fell more than 30%.
According to the data provided by Zhong Wei, if the price is 30% in the price of the price, the bad loans in the real estate industry may have been protruded to 1.02 trillion. The bank's bad asset rate will rise by 3.2 percentage points; for the government, thereby increasing The burden is equivalent to the CCB, and the BRIC is restrued, and the residents are residents, which is approximately equivalent to 14% of household property to evaporate.
For the government, the collapse of real estate not only means that the total of 500 billion land transfer will be in an instant to cloud smoke, but more serious is the current local government's large amount of land reserves will not be bidding for a longer period of time. auction. For developers, if the real estate collapse, the second-level qualified developer will enter the bankruptcy. The second-level qualified developer may all be banned. There will be no more than 90% of developers in the industry will not exist due to the industry.
This means that nearly 100 million farmers' construction workers will face unemployment.
This is also a fatal blow for a big Chinese economy. Obviously, real estate collapse is a warning to the current China's economic development, and is a negative resistance of current real estate regulation, or a serious threat to the determination of national decision makers.
People are worried about that real estate crashes, China's entire economic recession, all social contradictions are therefore intensified. Everyone knows that there are three elements of real estate development, land, capital, purchasing power. At present, China's real estate problems lies in the government's declaration and control in land and financial markets, so in the temptation of interest, a large number of land and 3.51 trillion capital are put into real estate field. The problem is that the government can't control the purchasing power of the people. Due to the lack of other industries, the income growth of ordinary people is very slow relative to real estate development. Although local government officials have repeatedly emphasized demand, ordinary buyers who do not have banknotes still can't afford commercial housing.
The risk is so big, why do the government's decision makers have to put all the eggs in the same basket? It is obviously the interests, and for a provincial government, hundreds of billions of disposable fiscal revenues each year is undoubtedly quite attractive, plus the law of deformity. Every government officials are only sweeping the front of the house, but they would rather drink thirst, and they will not take into account sustainable development of a region. In the past, China's real estate industry had evolved under the development of malformations.
The current status is that the supply and demand is seriously imbalanced. On the one hand, there is 122 million square meters of commercial housing that have been built in the country. On the other hand, the land in the hands of the Hundreds of developers is already 400 million square meters. But ordinary people's purchase capacity is severely overdraft.
For decision makers, there is no doubt that there is two difficulties. If you enhance regulation, it may cause the Chinese real estate industry to collapse, all people are therefore harmful; if not regulated, the deformity development of this industry will speed up the economy, which can eventually lead to the entire economy collapse.
Real estate crashes have nothing to win, but if it is relaxed, it is harmful.
