Director of Research Office of Mark Driver, Gartner Company, is primarily analyzed by strategies, tools and technologies developed by applications. As you look forward to, his current radar screen is just focusing on the biggest technology --.net, he is considering many related questions related to .NET: It will succeed, caught before, or to fail? Who will start using it, when do you use it, and what language? What is the most important part of .NET? The editor-in-chief of XML Magazine and I have interviewed him with the prospect of .NET recently. Here is our interview record:
Let us have a general view first. What is the most important three points they need to know when IT is considering the .NET architecture?
Mark Driver
First, you should understand that .NET is a new platform, Microsoft likes to combine .NET and COM , .NET has excellent, powerful with COM interaction, but it is more effective, new platform. This means it has its own strengths and weaknesses.
The second point, because it is immature, in order to deliver a complete .NET scheme, at least you need to combine .NET and COM . For example, in .NET, there is no alternative to Microsoft Transaction Server (MTS) or Microsoft Message Queue Server (MSMQ), all when you exceed a simple ASP.NET application,. Net cannot be eligible.
The last point, .NET and Web Services are closely connected together. You can't understand the Web Services concept, want to use .NET platform technology, the degree exceeds that you have not learned the object-oriented concept, want to begin component programming.
The .NET Adoption Timeline
In terms of publishing, what should IT from the industry?
Remember, this is a 1.0 version, this is not Visual Studio 7.0; this is not a COM ; this is not Visual Basic 7.0. It is very exactly that this is brand new. It introduces a lot of new code. You have to carefully consider how to plan .NET. Especially in the next 24 months.
However, it includes a lot of cool things. It makes up for the huge gap between Java, in many cases, proved to be better than Java One.
Not "whether," but "When is your suggestion for the company or if it turns to .NET? This is a problem when they drag, pull, or scream through the cliffs of .NET, not whether they need to pass through the .NET cliff, whether they are willing. However, I don't want to see many people trying to override all of their Visual Basic code or Visual C code. We should gradually work. .NET will be quickly referenced in new development. In the first two years of Visual Studio .NET, you will see a hybrid model, 30% of the newly developed code will be ASP.NET code (I preview ASP.NET extension will be very fast) However, 70% will remain COM, COM code.
Commercial application plans to new technologies due to many of .NET's advantages and Microsoft's powerful market efforts, .NET technology will eventually be widely used in application development, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. ... My general recommendation for rigorous customers is that don't depends on .NET, don't depends on .NET, at least six to nine months after. NET, you can do this, that is, August 2002. However, for the purpose of practice, you can do some small prototypes in .NET, some procedures without emergency tasks. This depends on the BETA code, the first product version, or the first service package can bring you something. Despite this, we recommend you to take conservative methods. Suppose a bad situation: your 30% -40% code will be migrated, you will have to rewrite or re-design the remaining code. Don't expect Microsoft to provide automatic tools to migrate your code.
Who will use .NET in advance? There are some good reasons for early employers. The first is to show the company's competitiveness in the Web Services policy, you are looking for the best platform for web services in the next 12 months.
ASP.NET is another reason. Too many programmers are engaged in ASP, if you are struggling with ASP or safety, or is affefed for the survival space of the entire ASP. ASP.NET is a stronger environment. In fact, Microsoft has already developed a lot of early adopters, they have developed under the beta version of the ASP.NET system.
Also, the most important thing is that if you have a real business reserve, you should use it earlier. For example, if you are developing a wireless application, ASP.NET has some important new features that you can help you, in many cases, adventure early move to .NET is because it is doing more in mobile and wireless devices. it is good.
Who will wait and wait? If you don't care about Web Services, there is no unbelievable and mandatory reason, let you use it quickly. In fact, this is what we say why most companies will use a relatively gradual curve to use it.
When will the company use the .NET strategy? There are many factors to consider. How many people depends on this mainstream technology. To refer to the expert advice. It is necessary to read the support of third parties, support for the prospect market. Component providers to see local .NET services. Look at all test companies. To see the supply of the source code management company.
When is the early user and mainstream companies come together? The first year of Visual Studio .NET, the early adopters will divide their code on the old platform and the new platform in the proportion of 70/30. After about one and a half, we expect the ratio to be 30/70. You will see 70% of local .NET code will appear in Microsoft-based solutions. Traditional companies will be migrated 24 to 36 months after Visual Studio .NET. About 2005, we will look forward to 95% of local .NET development.
You will use the tools to discuss the .NET language and work from Visual Basic .NET in the process of migrating applications to .NET. This is a good news that Visual Basic has become a mature language. It starts object-oriented design, using other zero in the class frame and .NET, VB.NET has become a more powerful toolset. In fact, there are no commercial applications that cannot be implemented in VB.
Unfavorable is VB.Net has many new grammar and design issues. This means that the Visual Basic developer will have a difficult learning process to finally complete the migration.
C ? I think that 60% or more C developers will turn to C # in the next 48 months.
Really? 60%? why? C will still be used. It will be used in COM and COM fields, even in .NET it will still be used, but it will remain the programming language of the system layer. The ability of the fast development of C # and C # and .NET component model integration work will play a big role. What will Java? What is it in the .NET blueprint? This is the most problem I have heard from the user. I may discuss this year with eighty-six hundred people, almost half of the problems are issues directly or indirectly compared to Java. I told them that Microsoft and Java will dominate e-commerce applications, that is, most new projects will be based on one of these two platforms. They will accounted for 80% of the market until 2005.
So who will be? No one will. Most big companies will use both. Now, Java is based on its cross-platform capabilities, there is also a strong strength in large companies.
What will small and medium companies do? Small companies cannot afford to use both, they will turn to one of them. Microsoft is still very attractive to small and medium-sized organizations because of its low cost and many developers.
What is wrong? What does it still need to do .NET puzzle? The middleware architecture should be taken away. We need alternatives for MTS. We need a Messaging Broker that synchronizes local .net. More effective is that we need a substitute for COM for local .NET services.
But what happened? of course. You already have database APIs and similar features. But we need a Java 2 platform, J2EE alternative to .NET. Now, if you look closely, we have half. There is a clear Java 2 platform, a standard editor (J2SE) alternative, soon, we will have a Java 2 platform, J2ME alternative-J2ME is closely related to .NET Framework. However, Microsoft has not established a real J2EE alternative. We need to see that .NET technology is injected into SQL Server, which will be seen in the SQL Server's next mainstream product Yukon. We need to see various .NET technology, like BizTalk, ironically, it can't do anything now. Microsoft's portal, e-commerce software, all of the zero things need to be executed on .NET. They need to integrate technology that will be eliminated.
About service you mentioned the importance of Web Services, then which type of web services we will first first? I mentioned that most companies will use Java and Microsoft technology at the same time. Web Services is a good way to integrate them and allow them to interact. We believe that Web Services plays a considerable role in mobile based on ownership information.
Web Services issues, just like other issues, it is not mature. In fact, the concept of the entire XML message is still extremely immature. We only have all 5% or 10%, and we will eventually need all XML foundations.
I think that suppressing using Web Services on public Internet will be a cultural issue. Enterprises will have to adapt to the idea of the system and the idea of real-time work. Good news is that there are many B2B's foundations. Some special longitudinally combined companies have used this approach to a large scale.
Do you think mainstream development companies fully understand web services and use it? I think it is still lacking skills when using this technology. Many developers will perform Web Services as the distributed object model. They will say "Ok, Web Services is just wrapped in DCOM or COM components and Enterprise Java Beans components,", this is wrong. Web Services is a loosely coupled, asynchronous message protocol, rather than locking, synchronous mechanisms. People will not be avoided for the first time.
You can believe that Web Services will have a good future, it will be unwilling to have a fairly cheap service communication mechanism. Regardless of these services are in a subsystem, a company, across an industry, or even across different industries. You can reduce obstacles to enter this business area. But these benefits will have to compare with new issues brought about by organizational structures. In this way, we believe that this time before 2003, Web Services will not become mainstream. How will people pay for the Web Services they use? This is a big black hole in Web Services. We have not seen any good pricing model. I think we will see that some extent, small payment mode will come out. But there is no example of the big payment mode.
Hailstorm technology seems to be the first famous, everyone can get the web services, what do you think? You know, I think of Hailstorm as an example of a big, avatar web service. However, now I heard a lot of opposition because it is Microsoft. It is believed that this is Microsoft to control the "Phase II" of the Internet. I believe that if it is not from Microsoft but other companies, Hailstorm will be directly welcomed. What surprised me is that if AOL or its partners do not propose and HAILSTORM's long-term competitive products. I believe it will succeed.
What technology will be able to successfully balance web services? I think people who are very concerned with e-commerce will have the same portrait of the market. Industries that have been turned to e-commerce will be the first industry that uses Web Services. It is the next logic revolution.
