In the 21st century, is the paper disappear slowly?
Gary StarkWeather
Hello everyone. I am very happy to take so many people to participate in today's conference. Today, I will discuss a very interesting topic in the 21st century, from the paper to the computer to the computer. This is not necessarily a problem, but in the end, I am willing to introduce you, what technological possibilities will occur during the next few years.
From the questions of the speech, I want to simply talk to everyone, and the development of this traditional electronic printing, we all know what kind of role in the paper, this is more when we want to replace it Yes. And we also believe that people will continue to develop by paper-based media in the future. We look at what is available for selection of paper in the future, in addition to this, we have to see what changes will change from trends in the 21st century. At the end of me, I will explain with you, why I think the computer display will eventually win and surround some problems around it.
From 35 BC, people have already understood paper, and the fibers will be treated with certain chemicals, and finally form paper. At that time, the cost of each feet was large to $ 100, which was very expensive. Cai Lung invented papermaking technology. From the technical point of view, true papermaking is China invented. Now we will find over time, we use the paper than Cai Lun's predicted much more much. By 1230, the development of paper entered the 13th century, which was very expensive in the original paper, so it would not be implemented, unless you pass some specific places, otherwise you can't buy it. From 1455, the paper has further developments, some people (Golden Burg ??) can print more than 100 Bible, 30 are paper, most of which are printed on the cloth. Since 1803, the first library has opened up the first library in Kangndigo, published the first book made by the paper in 1820. Later, in the past few years, we conducted paper double-sided printing, and later invented the mobile printer. However, until the "Times" in 1982, the Times Times really started to print through the technology. Later, people were tired of printing technology. Before we have a copy machine, it was very complicated, all everything else handed. Later, in the late 1960s, this thermal printing machine was invented. In 1969, a new generation of press was invented. In 1976, we can copy a single page. In 1984, he has invented the laser printer, and now has four More than 10,000 electronic printing equipment, but you must understand that 10% of the twenty-five years of development of electronic printing equipment, still printed by electronic devices. People may still feel that this technique is very successful, but it is not as fast as everyone in use.
In addition, for the measurement and printing of the computer, we can determine if the printing device has made some progress. Moreover, in which we can see some measures we have to do in order to eventually replace it. I have made some preparations in this process, in which I found the most important thing about the number and consumption funds printed every second. We don't want future printer's work efficiency, higher cost, this itself with the speed of the speed and image of each page of the printer, it has already been included in 60 pages per second, and finally calculates the cost. How many. Now let's take a look at some related data. You may have seen it, the top right is that when the printing pressure is 1950, people feel that this technology does not hope, in 2001, the paper-based printing equipment will not have any future, we I feel that we are facing a huge pressure in electronic printing technology. Although the development is very slow, there is a certain development on manufacturing these devices. In the 1930s, our equipment is likely to use, and it is necessary to study how to further develop electronic printing equipment in less than a hundred years. In addition, we have to understand that this is also important if we have to replace it, this is also important. In 1961, the total amount of paper used in the United States was only 60,000 tons. By 1995, it has reached 60 million tons. This can be said that the growth of paper is 5.3% a year, which is the situation in the past 100 years. The movement of this paper itself is not particularly rapid, but you don't want to stand in front of it because it is still moving.
One thing is very important, that is, every year, the weight of the Americans is 600 pounds. The growth of your copier paper is 14% annually. If we have to replace paper, we must first prevent paper. Growth, and further expand the amount of replacement. Let us look at it, the growth of electronic documents, a total of 12 top of a total of 12 tog of files in 95 years, from China, we can also see that 90% is carried out in the form of regular printing, to 2005 In the year, this ratio can be reduced to 50%. In addition, traditional print will spend 40% from 90%, while electronic display will increase to 50% of the market. This means that from 1995 to 2005, the use of printers increased by one-fifth. So, from this ratio, everyone may feel that paper will win, in fact, this is not the case, and the electronic display is winning.
One of them, everyone may not be able to understand. In print, the most important thing is what is cost, such as putting paper in a file cabinet is an old style. In the future, this function will be done through other displays such as scanners. In this process, you may send such an email, which may also make a variety of documents, and there will be other electronic versions. Moreover, people give you a variety of information or documents that you can control, so we have to accept this fact, paper will continue to use, there will be paper files. But there is a problem, what is the whole process cost? So if you do some reasonable analysis, if you put a piece of paper in the file cabinet is 10-12 cents, imaging processing cost is 4 cents. By 2005, the entire cost rate increased by 100%, so if many people were processed in the paper, store the file in the file cabinet, obviously not a very good way. So I also conducted comparison, which is based on my personal electronic scan for the file. The premise of electronics scans is very sharp, and there are other elements. We will find that one million paper only needs 25 floppy disks. Moreover, the entire cost will be further reduced in the future. At the same time, the same amount of document, if there is a file cabinet, the cost is up to one hundred dollars. We can't ignore the existence and use of paper. Another problem is that we talk more. If we want to copy, it is impossible to store all the files in a location, you have to use the way. Maybe for the different needs of the company or university, you have to keep these contents, for example, you have to copy one million files, if you want to copy, you may need 24,000 US dollars, but also need 170 Hours to carry, that is, 12-14 hours a day. Compare, if you are stored with other ways, save the image, you need the four thousand dollars, you still take 2-3 hours. So you only use 3% of the fee, and time saves a lot. Why can't this cost-effective display? Now people are more important to its quality, so paper can save a better image quality. Therefore, the paper is still better, so the text and image readability it are relatively strong, and the quality is relatively high. And you are also very difficult to take 38 years ago to read it with the current machine.
In addition, how is the progress in high quality display. As shown in the figure, the red color is popular. We have some laser-based scans, and there are some laptop. I want to talk about the problem of a motorizer. So these are all kinds of technologies, mainly in order to show quality technology. But there is currently no problem with paper. Therefore, electronic printing speed is faster, and now it is difficult to exceed it. Therefore, it is also difficult to find a way to replace the image quality displayed by the paper, and the resolution is extremely limited. There are currently two technologies leading in the world. Let's take a look at how they are created and how will they go in the future.
In 1896, there were two people (Fertinan and Brown), and William and crokes were mainly inventors, but this invention also displayed more than images that were not paper, and it was easier to read paper. This image indicates how we will handle this problem. Because we have a lot of visual aspects in this regard, 85% of information is treated by visual programs, and 50-70% is treated by brain. The eyes are the only visual system, which is the only visual system, and we processed directly. Therefore, when you see the image, it is displayed in a 40 cm space. We should be able to see the image's display, but such an image is too small. Our eyes are difficult to solve these problems, and it is difficult to solve Pixel problems on paper. In fact, these technologies have been tried in various environments, and it has also been trial in scientific experiments, and development is relatively fast. This means that he can reuse, you can keep it. In addition, you may have an newspaper in the future.
Finally, telling innovation, everyone is mainly concerned that we are considering innovation, there must be creativity, when you study, some people tell me, Xerox's copier can not sell, because people may not need, then The machine is cheap. Recently, this copy is sold faster, that is because of the copy of information because we need to copy. Therefore, its development is for demand, not original. This is a better designer, gutenberg makes us read, Xerox, allowing us to make every person a publisher. With the Internet, each of us can become a writer.
This chart is the market situation of Harvard University 2009. From the coordinates, at 2009, the turnover will reach 50,000 US dollars, so we can get so much information here. Now, I am willing to look at his three characteristics with everyone, why do our electronic displays can win, what is its advantage?
First, they have an economic advantage because we can get these materials immediately. In many cases, how many studies have been made from an office, to print, how long is it? If you use the display, you can display it immediately, we have some information, reduce the cost of humanivity, because the raw materials are at hand, the information display record is mainly because the print is cheaper, in addition to other consumption, and we found electronic typing, price It is very low. In addition, if we have enough display technology, we have to decline the role of paper, what is the advantage in the display performance? We can modify the image at any time, we can modify the animation, dynamic to meet the needs of users. In this way, we don't have to worry about printing. In addition, we also spend a lot of time, we see the screen can show the color. In addition, there is an advantage, we can see that a lot of paper is not to be printed, we can send it by post, we are often in a post office, and a large box of mail is sent to us in a traditional way. This is not very effective. Now we can see that today, 50GB, a disk, can be stored in a number of 25,000 sheets, and its weight is 1,000 kilograms. In addition, our display can help us read. Another point, why will the display will win? Because the future information is exploded. Jim Gray is an important information we conveyed. It is interesting from 1750 to 1900, from 150 to 1960, from 1950 to 1960, spent ten years to double the knowledge. We hope that the amount of information every 73 days in 2020 will be doubled, and the paper is can't catch this pace. So when we get information, if it is a paper transfer, it has passed. When is it? We have to spend some time to achieve this, because we can now find that the current high quality liquid crystal shows approximately $ 15 per square foot, while the price of paper is much cheaper. In addition, in 1977, spend twenty-three years, it has made a laser printer commercialization, and spent a lot of time to get 10% of the market share. We look at this slide, it reflects the development of technology, and the timetable we can see about 90 years of time can get 95% of the market share. We look now that the penetration rate of the Internet reaches 30%, only spent a short time. Electronics and other TVs, cars are very complex systems, and there is a very complex process in terms of paper, we need an off-the-shelf system to replace paper. Not only is it for a clock technology.
Finally, talk about a summary opinion. Paper printing and use is a very mature and complex system, we must not only replace the paper this media, but more importantly, replace the entire system, the paper has been used for hundreds of years. We can see that the Internet is a great driving force for this important system alternative. Information technology is still in its era. After he is slowly mature, we need new ideas, new concepts, we need to study this. And innovation. We now quote Einstein: The imagination is more important than knowledge. I tell you, we don't just understand this knowledge, but more importantly, this knowledge is thought of. And use this knowledge to overcome the original tradition.
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