Look at the future

zhaozj2021-02-16  61

Look at the future

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In 2000, the calendar is about to turn over. When the new year's bell is to ring, I look back at the trajectory of computer technology this year, let us move my gaze to the future! Put the "telescope" in our hands in areas where human work and life is closely related, find the development direction of computers and related technologies, and explore these technological exciting future trends, imagine 3 years, 5 years or even 10 years later, now Not mature technology, or in the bud period technology, how will it develop in the future, how will they change our lives.

Voice identification prospects bright

Have you ever log in to your computer with your voice over the morning? Maybe this will not become a reality, but the application of speech recognition technology will become trend in 3 to 5 years in the early 21st century.

Due to the continuous growth of computer computing power, speech recognition and literary conversion technology will significantly reduce the cost of copying, saving time, and of course bring more convenience to users.

Voice recognition has brought hope in many fields to improve efficiency. In the telephone market, the textual language conversion technology similar to natural people will be another way to improve customer service and can be applied to Internet-based automatic voice systems. With the development of PDAs, mobile phones, wearable computers, no need to use hand-operated automatic communication systems, such as voice dial, speech synthesis, and speech recognition.

Although the large-scale application of speech recognition technology has already appeared in the process, the company is still sparingly promoting the development of related technologies, and IBM is developing speech recognition and verification technology. This technology uses voice and "knowledge" interface to confirm the user's identity. After confirmation, you can turn on the safety channel door of the computer room, perform the operation of bank accounts, stocks, and other e-commerce transactions.

The IBM is called "Conversation Speech Biometrics" technology "is used in accordance with the known speaker's voice database for the speaker's confirmation, but does not identify the content of the voice, nor does the synthesis of speaker speech. IBM said this as "my voice is my password".

On the other hand, it is a voice application innovation in the virtual assistant market. In April last year, the world's first virtual news announcer was born in ANANOVA. This active virtual person on www.ananova.com releases sports, entertainment and other information 24 hours a day. Although the virtual human is active in the Internet, it is still 3 ~ 5 years since it is still 3 to 5 years.

With the back of Ananova, Lernout & Hauspie uses RealSpeak technology to collect real-time news and various information, and instantly convert them into voice and animation. Currently, many companies are studying the ambassador of public image that will be used similar ANANOVA for business meetings and trade fairs. Other potential applications include online sales, customer service, e-commerce, and internet personalization.

In addition to applications on the Internet, Lernout & Hauspie also formed a league with Ford Moter, developed a speech interface for automotive applications, which would allow voice technology to automotive equipment, thereby reducing manual control dashboards. Although this has been applied in luxury cars, if you want to be a standard option for all vehicles, it will still take at least 3 years.

The foreground of the speech recognition technology is bright. IBM identification and verification technology, Ananova computer characters, and voice applications in automotive applications are only the beginning of speech recognition and synthetic technical passion. In the future, there will be a safer and more easy to use equipment in the hands of enterprises and consumers.

2. NLP is a natural communication of man machine

In the future, the development of natural language treatment will make people no longer need to learn computer language.

It is still not easy to communicate with your computer, you have to change your language habits, say some computers. In any complex man-machine communication, a lot of time and data are inevitably lost in this dynamic process, but their own problems are still piled up as mountains. The ideal state should be that we do not have to use a computer language, but the computer can perform natural language processing (NLP), and like a person, you can understand and generate our language like friends. With this computer with NLP capabilities, people can use professional terms to ask for questions, and can get the "professional" reply. By eliminating the continuous conversion process between professional terms and computer terms, the NLP has helped us save time and improve efficiency in different ways.

Of course, in order to develop a comprehensive NLP solution to meet market demand, there is still a lot of investment. BBN, IBM, AT & T, Sun Microstems and Microsoft are striving for a fight, but the deer is still confusing, so far, the tools that can be understood can still be unable.

What makes NLP researchers feel confused how to get a computer model of a human brain language understanding process. Although the good NLP system can understand the language of most 5 years old, there is often a variety of dialects in adult language, and the syntactic is loose, and the professional vocabulary is also more. These factors make computer systems more embarrassment to specific words and have an understanding of language rules. Some complex statistical models provide limited adaptability to adult language, but they only apply to some specific environments, such as classrooms, while the effect is different in commercial applications.

For example, in an Eliza virtual treatment program or some website search tool, you see a simple way.

This false NLP is born with a computer, and its essence is based on keyword syntactic analyzer. Since the programmed personnel of the program can be called people to be calm when the program is demonstrated, but the program is not practical, which is the reason for the NLP system is considered "fake".

For developers, there are many open source and academic projects on NLP. The Grok project responsible by Gann Bierner and Jason Baldridge is an open source project, which uses a tightening syntax to syntact analysis.

Microsoft provides an NLP subsystem of a SQL Server environment, but it is still very imperfect. After the developer must train the English Query, it can handle the user's query request. This kind of training is very cost-effective, so the system is not practical, especially when the data structure changes frequently.

The NLP is not a single problem, so it will not be solved with a single method. Perhaps programmers, linguists, mathematicians, sociologists and other field experts can develop it to develop. Only when the complex fragile language model is replaced by an elegant formula, NLP's era will come true. At this stage, we can only use the computer's language to communicate with computer. Of course, we still have a look.

3. Content search will promote XML's prosperity

As long as you use online search engines, you should know about the sad status of content retrieval. Regardless of how to design query conditions, some of the contents in the results of the query are always unconfilled with your expectations. For the average person, this inaccurate result is only annoying, but for professionals, this means economic losses.

The reason why the computer gives the error result may result in many links, such as circuit short circuit or programmer's negligence, but the key is that the data is expressed itself.

The current database uses keywords and indexes to accelerate the search for content. The required data is not directly found in use, but the keywords and index data are queried to complete the search. Therefore, the system must change the expression and management of data. Now, column, and index patterns are necessary to overcome the limitations of computers, but all data in the future will be stored in memory, and many supercomputers are stronger real-time processing, thereby reducing the need for keywords and indexes. RAM caching and solid-state disks have also been used to accelerate retrieval. One of the fundamental methods to solve the problem is to increase the use of high-speed data storage. Taking into account these, today's plan designers should structural design in accordance with existing retrieval methods, but this also needs to utilize high-performance servers.

Future content retrieval system can directly handle the original data, and do not process the correlation and sequential selection of data elements. The system should not only be discarded because data cannot be discarded with the database. Otherwise, although these data is more important, they are saved but worry about future search.

The current solution is to adopt a layered database with elastic modes, which has begun because of the recognition of XML. In addition to performance, XML has all features that support super content retrieval. The data of XML expressed is a layer-class, and the two-dimensional structure of the relational database is more practical. XML is ordered by the provisions of the structure, but the structure is uniquely allowed to change the structure. This brings some kind of flexibility in which the database technology is difficult to manage.

XML This flexible expression of the data is suitable for future higher retrieval systems. Today's systems can do XML data in relational databases, such as IBM's WebSphere with XML to generate an e-commerce shopper's identity. Some databases can even store layered data with relational database tools. Microsoft's Data Shaping technology can instantly convert relational data into a layered result.

In the next 2 to 5 years, the database will naturally express data with scalable and layer-like ways. If this is now considering this factor, it will be relatively surprising to the more advanced system conversion, and you can get more satisfactory search results in a shorter time.

4. Text excavation from Wenshan Word Sea

If all things can be expressed in text, then all questions should already have an answer. How does the problem find the search engine to find the answer that I don't know where it is hidden.

Using data mining technology can easily obtain knowledge from the formatted data of relational data sheets, which is a common business behavior.

Many institutions have begun to try to develop tools that have been excavated from unstructured texts, which is a very challenging job. This is undoubtedly a good news for all companies that have accumulated a large amount of electronic text, email, and customer needs.

Briefly, like the knowledge discovery and trend analysis of data mining, this technology gives hope for analysis without classified text data. Users can simply try to discover the structure of the text to get hidden information.

Although it looks very simple, it is far from the application. The biggest difficulty now is that the computer cannot handle words like processing letters, which can only provide convenience for people's further processing.

The computer's understanding of the text is limited to the ASCII code. The word HI has only ASCII meanings for the computer in any language, regardless of whether they are meaningful, or if it is meaningless to the computer, only H and I have no Binding of spaces. Therefore, make the computer can search for words, at least in accordance with their meaning, this is the problem.

But if we use other greetings, such as Hello, Bonjour, etc., save the database and index each other? In this case, you may find all your email and generate a list without having to care about the language used in the email.

The potential of this technology is amazing, but the effort required is also huge. Computer vendors such as IBM to Enterprise Miner with Intelligent Miner have begun to provide comprehensive analysis tools, full text search components, and web access tools to extend knowledge management and business intelligence solutions. Although it has been impressive now, this technology can continue to improve until one day customers realize that the text excavation can turn outdated information into their think tank.

If it is smooth, text mining will become as important as data mining in the 1990s in the next five years. Today's world has developed from the client / server to the Web and wireless direction, which can be minuse from any original data, which is huge for any organization and the company.

5. Pattern recognition improvement of business transactions

Most people can recognize Mona Lisa's smile, and their perception recognizes images with their memory instantly. And if the computer is used to convert the useless data, the image is converted into a large number of digital information, and then the information is matched with the reference model, and the image can also be identified. This technology called pattern identification is the basis for making computers more friendly and more convenient.

This technology is now used for commercial purposes. Handwriting recognizes that Palm can convert the stroke of the stylus into text, or help postal automatic classification. Some data mining tools such as IBM DB2 Intelligent Miner For Data, hide complex data pattern identification features in a simple and easy-to-use interface.

More and more medical applications also utilize pattern identification technology. A medical system called Muscle Pattern Recognition can help doctors identify the damage of the patient's back muscles.

Many other interesting research projects are also in progress, these projects are focus on improving the reliability and accuracy of pattern recognition. Mode recognition will also be used to identify, classify, and retrieve images according to human faces and utilize the content of the image. This application allows companies to confirm its customers through a web camera without having to use unreliable cookies.

Another interesting application is identified by the MIT's Institute of Technology. Imagine an application that automatically continuously serve customers in the future, programs can determine the customer's attitude or worrying from the conversation, and then make the corresponding action. This is obvious about improving customer loyalty and impact on the bottom line of the serving.

The core technology of pattern identification is some very complex mathematical formulas that convert data into manageable collections. These sets are easy to classify and compute with the reference model. The problem is that the results of the processing have a considerable error. If a human average error rate is close to 2% to 3%, its business application value is revealed.

For future words, people look forward to the generation of more complex and more accurate algorithms, and need to struggle with other disciplines, such as image processing, speech recognition, and robotics. It can be fairly that researchers are still restricted by computer processing capabilities, and they process massive data more reliably by using parallel processing patterns called neural networks. Continuously improved processing capabilities and constant improvement of algorithms related to application will be the key to pattern recognition.

Although they are not called patterns identification applications in the market, we will see many progress in pattern identification applications in the next 4 to 6 years. When you can identify visitors through images on the web, remember, this is the progress made by pattern identification.

6. Bluetooth connection is invalid

The computing environment of the office is undoubtedly based on the network. The sharp growth of Internet, E-mail and stored in the distance make the PC that do not have a networked, like a basketball, no use. This is also true for handheld equipment. Being able to quickly connect to the network, send and receive email, access file servers, or participate in the e-conference.

Bluetooth is a wireless project initiated by Ericsson, IBM, Intel, and Nokia, is an open standard for Bluetooth Special Interest Group. The 1.0 version is released in the second quarter of 1999, and the 2.0 version will be released at the end of 2000 or early 2001. Bluetooth technology uses a short-distance (10 m) wireless connection using a stamp size, and seamlessly transmits sound and data between PCs, phones, and any devices that can be networked. Since the transmission bandwidth can reach 1 Mbps, the transmission speed can be honest with DSL. Unlike infrared communications, the connection equipment does not need to meet each other with Bluetooth technology. When you walk into your office, your handheld device can perform daily synchronous operations in your pocket. The data stream will be encrypted, and the device can be identified to prevent radio eavesdropper from blocking Bluetooth standard network signals.

There are WAP participation in many application modes of Bluetooth, and many Bluetooth members are also WAP members. It is predicted that future handheld devices will be a combination of Bluetooth technology and WAP technology.

The basic content of the Bluetooth 1.0 version is a range of specification scripts designed for consumer electronics such as audiovisual equipment, automotive equipment, and printers, including physical layer specifications. Most scripts are designed to replace the current cables and provide wireless connections for mobile phones, laptops and other devices.

The 2.0 version has increased 12 scripts to introduce a broader new application, such as MPEG-1, MP3 player, speakers, static digital cameras, and car navigation systems. Each work group of Bluetooth has its own plan, so each of the relevant standards, but the goal of each group is relatively simple: a schedule synchronization feature, remotely sending and receiving email, and downloading data from the web. All of these is as convenient to operate on the desktop PC on the handheld device.

The first product that meets the Bluetooth specification should be unveiled this year, and the wide adoption of this technology will be a thing within 3 years. With the popularity of Bluetooth technology, some new features, such as accessing the Internet on the train, providing commercial collaborative programs and electronic wallet functions for equipment with Bluetooth standard, will make Bluetooth into all mobile devices. technology.

7. Web computer makes the Internet easier

With the continuous change in the computer industry, companies are always constantly upgrading end users to the latest version and implement various applications in the enterprise, making the application system investment and maintenance costs high.

Today, in order to alleviate this situation, the prototype of the new computing mode has appeared, which is called a web computer (WebTop). These virtual desktops provide application kits through the Web. In the near future, users will not need to carry, share, and manipulate information, they only need web devices.

The most famous WebTop is now available from ASPs such as Visto and Magically, providing free office tools such as email and address books, and provides free information through Web, but uses laptops or handheld devices. These patterns are very helpful for individuals who need to access the deposited documents and office tools, but lack key office tools such as word processing software.

SLO and other vendors are extending the range of the browser to access, which provides some tools for Windows, UNIX, or large-machine system environments. For example, the UnixWare 7.1 of SCO has the characteristics of WebTop. The web enabled application in UnixWare is stored, and the administrator can control which users can access these applications. TAntella provides a tool for large businesses and ASPs to provide Web enable technology to make them distribute applications to users via Web.

The rise of Webtop mode is competing with Microsoft's Office, which makes companies and users don't have to hide on the Windows platform. There is a competition with freeedesk.com and nuomedia.com, and the other is the Beta version of the SUN's Starportal due to the end of 2000. All three offer a complete web-based office suite. These WebToP solutions are eliminated in the personal workstation, the user does not have to be bound before the desk. Sun's scenarios can be installed to the desktop or installing to the host, giving users more choices. It also provides development tools for customization. New companies can easily establish an office environment with these virtual desktops, and save the cost of buying office tools. Companies can use these tools for free, and only when companies need more storage space and technical support.

According to Gartner predicts that the WebTop will become mainstream to 2002, users will not need to use laptops to install the application and store the required information.

The success of this model also depends on the ASP to provide useful and key applications. Therefore, ASP needs to adopt Web enable technologies such as TarangeTella. Finally, these applications will be more practical as the connection bandwidth increases.

In the future, users don't have to carry computers with you. The applications and files they need will be obtained through a variety of Internet access tools. However, please don't rush to throw away your laptop, you still need to use the application by it when you can't access the Internet.

8. Digital certificate, rooted business

Prove that you are more important than anyone in an e-commerce environment. For example, when you order pizza, the cashier will swipe your payment card and ask your ID card number. This way, you can't deny this deal or illegally get a free pizza.

In the electronic age, it is generally unable to know who is the person of the browser, "this card does not exist" also often pops up on the screen. If you sell CD online, then the problem is not big; but if it is a million dollar B2B transaction on the Internet, it is necessary to prevent it. Digital signature using a digital certificate is used to confirm the identity of the transaction. Digital signatures are safe and convenient, it needs to overcome huge obstacles: First, in terms of laws and technology, lack of basic platforms that have been widely accepted and understood by the use of digital certificates; secondly, there may still be needed in cultural Many years overcomes people's usage habits.

The first difficulty has gradually been overcome. President Clinton has signed "E-Sign Regulations", "ELECTRONIC SIGNATURES in Global, and" National Commerce Act "in June 2000. This indicates that the use of certified technologies is encouraged, but there is still a problem. Since there is no specific item in the digital signature standard of E-SIGN, the lawyer will make the engineer to determine how to use authentication technology.

Documents that generate digital signatures at some time are possible, encrypted programs and email programs support digital signatures. But existing tools are too cumbersome. Most encryption and digital signature methods use a variety of PKI (Public Key Infrastructure technology, Windows NT, Windows 2000, and Newware integrate this feature. But because users don't want to pay additional energy, its application failed. The financial community and the legal community will finally decide how long it makes digital authentication to go deep into our lives. In July, the US Law Federation was jointly issued a TrustID certification project with Digital Signature Trust. We look forward to it can bring revolutionary changes in the field of certification. Trustid mode can bring progress to the entity trusted by people - bank certification services. And now this business is only limited to VeriSign and some other products.

Although there are many digital authentication and digital signature precedents around us, it is still necessary to contact the key. In terms of legal issues, it takes more time to solve it. We expect to give relevant terms by 2004. 9. Biometric authentication: your security yourself

To log in to the operating system or other app, we need to enter a variety of IDs and passwords. But this simple method hides very serious security risks. Employees often use the password that is easy to guess, or write the password next to the computer. This cannot be confirmed whether the use of the computer is authorized, can't prevent malicious intruders from getting out of the password strip from the drawer, which is like a passport without a photo. In addition, the time-consuming user ID management and cancellation of the password require a lot of technicians to complete, making it a lack of human resources in more important work.

Biometric technology has brought hope to these problems. The unique physical properties are identified, which greatly reduces the opportunity to be infected by the user, and the employee may not remember numerous IDs and PIN, but it is unlikely to forget or make your thumb. Many shopping malls will use the biometric solution of your eye to protect the access to the system, so that you can save your time for your password.

Some biotechnology can now be used and cost is not high. It takes 200 USD to 300 US dollars, voice and face recognition techniques for desktop computers. Iris and retinal scanning techniques are unlikely to be adopted due to the natural protection characteristics of the human eye.

Hardware without software is unused. If the designer of the operating system cannot develop the necessary interfaces, it will hinder the application of biological assay. These conditions have been improved due to the improvement of standard perfection, the growth of user needs and the improvement of application security requirements. In January 2000, Novell released Novell Modular Authentication Service. It provides interfaces for NDS and biological assays and other certification technologies. Microsoft announced in May, I / O Software's Biometric API (BAPI) and SecureSuite technology will be integrated into the future Windows version. The current I / O software is sold as a third-party software for Windows.

There are still many obstacles in the promotion and application of biometric technology. Although hardware costs can be reduced by reducing manufacturing costs, but the integration of software is still facing challenges. The integration of biometric technology and operating system is still just one start. Many users need to log in to multiple applications at the same time, while each application requires a separate ID and password. Therefore, SSO (single sign-in) technology is the necessary prerequisites for successful implementation of biometric technology.

Therefore, for some companies, biometric technology has entered the practical phase, but more companies will use the attitude. Other technologies, such as retinal scans, only in science fiction movies. However, the fingerprint recognizer and speech recognition tool will no longer be alternally, and the application of minimum embedded technology will be very successful; each company will use biometric technology to improve efficiency, not for security considerations; The implementation of technology will also be very easy.

10. Smart card: More convenient and easy to use is the key

When you enter the office, take out the credit card size device, after yourself on the card reader, your image will appear on the screen immediately, and the police guards for identification. is it possible? After 10 years, the smart card technology being developed will make it easy.

Smart cards have now been seen as a credit card with chips, with confidential currency and identity information above, it has been widely used in the United States. In Europe, due to the sales of the vendor to confirm that each credit card transaction is too expensive, they choose to read information from the customer's smart card, while smart cards are also popular.

The US telecom cost is relatively low, so use smart card systems to replace existing infrastructure is not costly. But in addition to a simple transaction confirmation, smart cards have a wide variety of potential purposes. The open circuit of the smart card can increase the security of online transactions, especially the security of mobile transactions. Since the United States has signed a new electronic signature method, each company hopes to reduce the cost of contracting with new customers with smart cards. In general, the online signature of digital signature (password is stored in smart card) is much higher than handle mailing and handling table efficiency, and the company can use smart card to log in and verify programs. Since smart card is difficult to copy, this can prevent illegal intrusion on the network. CEBERSAFE CEO Jim Cannavino believes that smart cards can replace PKI (Public Key Infrastructure) in some areas, such as personal users who need to have digital certificates. Taking into account the current pmi's big speculation, this prediction is quite surprising. However, since the current PKI seller cannot reduce the price of its program, enhance its interoperability, Mr. Cannavino is not necessarily unreasonable.

Unfortunately, several obstacles still exist. First of all, the smart cards of different vendors do not follow the same standard, which makes the application development difficult. To eliminate this obstacle, Microsoft and Sun are developing smart cards for operating systems, which will provide standards for the development of various smart cards and their application systems.

Second, if you want to be truly popular, the smart card must be very cheap, each smart card cost is less than 2 US dollars, and the card reader needs to easily embed your phone and computer, not independently. Unfortunately, smart card technology is at the beginning of birth, and different applications require different cards. When the user needs to have 15 cards, the voice of the single card solution will sound. Although people are studying this single solution, it may take 5 years to have a unified standard.

The fate of the smart card may be determined in the next 2 to 3 years, but it has been determined: as long as it is standardized and easy to use, the smart card application will only be more and more extensive, and will become a key role from pure technology. Business tools.

11. Popularization calculations make the business and user more smooth interaction

Many people think that popularization calculations will be more promising than popular network connectivity. Studies have shown that the development of Internet in the next 10 years is not only more popular, but also more commercial. At the same time, the development of embedded computing technology will enable the "Internet Inside" product to enter the large-scale manufacturing stage, including all things from household equipment to vehicles.

Popularization calculations will change the way companies and individuals interact on the Internet. Users and companies will remain connected, and it provides the company's new way to sell, and provide users with global services. In order to make it become a reality, some companies are investing in large amounts of funds to study and develop in network interconnect equipment. The Agilent laboratory is improving a technique called WWDM (broadband wavelength division), which can be used for optical cable, so that the workstation's Internet access bandwidth reaches 1Gbps, the transmission speed will be 10 times more fast Ethernet. .

The speed of enhancing the backbone is just a way to popularize the calculation. Some institutions have more steps, they have to change the entire computing mode, and the browser-based interface is completely abandoned. Microsoft's project called Easy Living is focused on allowing your computer to find the user's whereabouts on the Internet, allowing "Internet Inside", such as phones, video conferencing or other devices, etc., can be contacted.

IBM and Xerox Palo Alto Research Center are unwilling, setting parameters and territories in the Internet ecosystem. Through this dress, the choice of communication is more, more smooth with the user's interaction.

However, the innovation of technology is not enough to truly realize. The continuous evolution of communication standards and information translation protocols (such as XML) become more important. Privacy and intellectual property protection is a potential problem that must be resolved, which will promote security and encryption. In any case, the prospect of popularization is very considerable. In the next 10 years, when the Internet is more open, the company will benefit from the access of the global client.

12. Achievement in the quantum calculation of the post-Mocetale

Moore's law named by Gordon Moore, one of the Intel Company, said: The data density of the silicon chip doubles every 18 months. According to this speed, today's chip manufacturing process will reach the limit in 2020. By then, only the transistor has only atomic size.

When the Moore's law fails, the quantum calculation is beginning. Quantum calculations use the properties of atoms and atomic cores to obtain a different architecture. Based on quantum physics theory, in the subordinate world, the presence of matter and dying is only at almost simultaneous moments.

Similar to conventional computers use transistors to constitute 0 and 1 in the program instruction, the quantum computer rely on the characteristics of the particles, such as the directionality of the rotation, to express the state. For example, for the upwardly rotating particles read as 1, the particles rotating downward are read as 0.

These quantum bits, or qbit, exhibit different characteristics from traditional computer bits. There is an overlapping state in the atom and atomic nuclei. At this time, the state between 1, 0 and the state can be simultaneously expressed, and since the atom is rotated, the QUBITS can be connected to the overall form. This hybrid state breaks the limitations of binary logic, and has a nonlinear computing power than the existing supercomputer computing capacity. This level of parallel processing and potential speed increase is almost unable to imagine.

Imagine that huge amount of data is instantially completed, search, and manipulate, or you can get any input amount in an instant. Thus again, a computer can count the factor of 400 digits within several months, while traditional computers need to calculate billions of years. In the face of such a computer, today any encryption is fragile.

But imagining is not reality. Although the significance of calculation and business is amazed, the problem of quantum calculation is that it is still difficult to touched. Quantum computers have been included in contemporary Buck Rogers issues due to very harsh test conditions and a large number of development tests.

However, as the progress made in IBM and NASA Jet ProPulsion Laboratory, one milestone is over. Reality is that quantum computing has a great impact on business strategies. If our life is enough, then we may enjoy the benefits it brings.

13. Exhaust "Synthetic" Application

Some people are easy to deal with others, this is their personality decisions. This difficult integrated quality (personality) promotes the attraction and exclusion between people. But what is the relationship with the computer?

Massachusetts Institute of Technology and other researchers are studying synthetic people, software agents and robots. They can not only solve problems through programmable rules according to traditional methods, but also adapt to new inputs, learn new behavior, and even expressions. What kind of automatic customer service with excellent "electronic attitude"? Is it possible if the child is a perfect computer doctor? I hope to combine your male tube, maid and gardener? You will be possible in the future.

One of the strengths of the computer is to answer the problem that can be accurately defined and have a clear context. For example, the current software agent can find price information for online directory, or choose flights according to your destination. In general, the computer will have excellent performance in the case where the problem can be converted into a database query according to a predefined structure. This means that according to today's technology level, the computer can only respond to its developers, and the answer is also pre-design.

In many environments require a large number of interactions, such as helping customers find products that make them more satisfactory, give patients, or provide training for users. Faced with these relatively flexible situations, the current computer will be wooked. As a result, when the script is not possible or inappropriate, there is no other method to perform a conversation at all. The purpose of synthetic characters is to create such people, they can provide services while providing services, while people who are not smooth and people must drink coffee, rest. Synthetic characters are one of the most exciting and ambitious new technologies. It is established on many discipline research, including natural language treatment, psychology, physiology, etc. It is also the basis for developing intelligent robots.

Although the idea is very exciting, there are many limitations in business applications at this stage, such as understanding of context or adaptability to context switching, etc. These techniques are very important in human communication. To make artificial intelligence can think like human beings, the technology in these areas must make breakthrough progress. Some experts believe that important progress will be generated from a new generation of computers. These computers can simulate the process of thinking of neurons in human brain through the connection.

Although the software agent can be studied and acting in the work as people in the study, they are officially available for 6 to 10 years. Therefore, let go of the fantasy work.

14. Electronic money makes you generous

Online shopping seems to be a very normal thing, but a large amount of information indicates that only 1/3 of the Internet users really have online shopping, most people will stop before they are concerned about security and privacy. So, merchants are looking for a way, let users answer their online shopping. Electronic money (E-Cash) may be a very good solution.

Although e-currency is already circulating, there is no favorite of most users. Gartner's analyst predicts that e-money is mature in the next five years, and in 2009, electronic payments will increase to 60% of all online transaction shares, but now only 14%.

It is expected that the company that accepts electronic currency will make the credit card company less expensive at the same time as B2B, B2C and P2P e-commerce transactions. In this regard, there are several major sellers with electronic currencies to the company and consumers to conduct online transactions. More famous websites have X.com's PayPal Service (www.paypal.com) and flooz (www.flooz.com) and the Monneta product suite of Ecash Technologies (www.digicash.com). The company can accept electronic payment by signing the agreement.

PayPal and Flooz are prepared electronic money services, you can use it at any time. The Monneta product suite of Ecash Technologies includes a range of electronic payment programs such as debit, pre-payment, P-TO-P and B-TO-B. Paypal is used to auction sites, such as eBay; flooz is a currency given online, which is sent out by email and can be used on its website. The Moneta Product Suite provides an electronic payment software solution that uses digital signature technology based on public key encryption.

Ecash also provides a choice of payment methods, such as debit, preparation, P-TO-P and B-TO-B.

You may be willing to pay attention to the development of e-money, it has become a trend, and more and more merchants accept and use it as payment methods. Electronic money makes a cautious consumers become a warm online shopper, which is undoubtedly a good news for many companies' online sales and future development.

15. New display makes reading easier

If you can make your own newspapers, you can sing a praise for your favorite team on the newspaper, introduce your favorite fun, and the news. This is a very tempting idea, but it is not a creative idea. If you can design this newspaper on a thin display of thin images, it is an idea of ​​ideas. The display screen is soft, you can read it at the bus, even can be rolled out; you can lose your hand. This is just an example worth mentioning, IBM will be a display that will succeed in 3 to 5 years. It is necessary to understand what IBM researchers do, require some chemical knowledge. It is now used for labels for labels, smart cards, and RFID (wireless frequency identification, radio frequency Identification), are now inorganic materials, especially non-crystalline silicon materials. The problem is that the manufacturing process requires a high temperature and vacuum environment, which makes the transistor not only expensive but also fragile, and the heat can destroy any flexible group. This is a problem that IBM scientists need to solve.

After designing a process that can use organic and inorganic materials simultaneously, IBM is studying that can be similar to silicon conductivity (or mobility), but can process manufactured transistors in room temperature and air.

This result is the meaning of the computer industry lies in that IBM comes from manufacturing very cheap semiconductors. It applies to some applications that require large and physical flexible chips. First, the domain that can be foreseen is the display screen and low-cost storage device of the mobile device.

The display becomes cheap and soft, and innovates in size and shape for future equipment, such as a microcomputer that can be set on the wrist. More importantly, the price of the portable device will drop sharply as the price of the display can be ignored. The RFID tags and smart cards will be widely used as low-tech posts, such as self-catering food stores, completely automatic logistics control, almost no money transactions, etc. All in the 1950s may be fantasy, but today they may be faster and more real than imagining.

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