Although the remarks of "crossing 3G 4G" is encouraged to have some people, from China's national conditions, 3G is still an insurmountable stage of China's mobile communications industry. It is true that there are still many problems need to be resolved, but these most of the development problems should not be China's development of 3G industries, so the development of 3G is a general trend.
Not long ago, Vodafone officially launched 3G business in Germany and Portugal, and many countries in Europe achieved 3G commercial, even in Asia, Japan and South Korea's 3G development has also achieved a lot of achievements. In this context, the issues concerning when China's 3G start-up has once again caused a global widespread concern, but it is not only because China has huge market and development potential, but also because China's 3G industry has a strong energy that promotes the development of the country economy and the world economy. . On the 3G issue, the Chinese government has always maintained a robust attitude, from the current perspective, this attitude should be more reasonable. In view of all aspects, China is currently starting 3G to solve many problems, but most of these issues have generally emerged in the development of any industry, so the key is how we objectively look.
First, the market demand is still insufficient
1. Insufficient economic development
Any telecommunications business is launched, no matter which country, it is related to the overall level of economic, communication, society, etc. in its country. In other words, whether there is a need for a 3G market, which is determined by a variety of factors. Since the launch of 3G business countries, most countries with higher economic development, such as: Asia, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Portugal, etc. Although China's per capita GDP currently broke through $ 1,000 of the DPRK, China is still unable to rank among developed countries compared to many developed countries. From the consumer level analysis, the average monthly spending of most mobile users is 200 yuan, which is more extravagant for most people. Before reaching scale, the cost is relatively high, some new services may be higher during launch, which will limit the use of considerable number of people.
2, the level of telecommunications development is insufficient
From the overall level of communication, China's 3G development is still relatively weak, mainly performance in low levels of low (European development 3G, mobile penetration rate is more than 60%). At the same time, my country's mobile data business development is still in its infancy. Its development is a gradual process, which determines that the voice and SMS business are still mainstream during the future. In addition, the formation of 3G diverse needs takes time. If the demand for 3G is not high, the 3G business is launched prematurely, and the development of operators will be very disadvantageous.
3. Regional development is imbalance
From the regional development, China's telecom development is unbalanced. Some developed areas may exist for 3G demand, but there are 2G and 2.5G space and market in the Midwest, in which case the Midwest How big is the region, no one can be clear. For example: there is a survey show that 71.55% of the 3G potential users, aged 18-35 years old, from statistics, this part of the total number of people is not big. It can be seen that the foundation of 3G development is not very good. If business is launched in the case of the market pulse, it is very big for all aspects.
4, the user knows low
A sample survey of existing mobile users in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Chengdu and Xi'an, showing that if price factors are not considered, the proportion of 3G services is 55.52%, this number tells us, move The user's cognition is still in this, not to say non-mobile users, indicating that the current market demand is worth considering and studies.
5, skill limit demand
There are industry people estimated that the most likely the most likely to have the following weather in the future, Music SHOP, Mobile TV, mobile e-wallet, M2M business, etc., some people even list the following formula: 3G = phone MP3 Mobile TV electronic wallet mobile Broadband access device GPS ... If users use these services, there must be certain computer skills, and even other skills such as language, but there is a great difficulty in the current analysis of our population. Illiteracy is an important indicator of today's international community to measure a national social progress, economic development and people's living standards. According to the 2003 statistics, my country is currently 8.72% of human literacy. The absolute number of illiteracy is still as high as 850.7 million, of which about 20 million is a young age of 15 to 50 years old. 90% illiterate in the countryside, half illiterate in the western region. Total population of 10 provinces, such as Tibet, Qinghai, Guizhou, Gansu, Yunnan, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi accounts for 15% of the country, but the number of illiteracy accounts for 50% of the country. That is to say, there are 1 Chinese in less than 10 people in the world.
With the rapid development of the economy and society, especially the progress of scientific and technological progress, the comprehensive improvement of medical and sanitation, the average life expectancy of the Chinese people has been improved, and China has entered the population aging country in October 1999. At present, the 60-year-old and above the old population has reached 12.6 billion, accounting for 10% of the national population.
If the number of illiteracy and old population is added, nearly 20% of the population will use 3G business will have difficulties, which is more than 200 million markets. There are surveys and prove, and users with high education have chosen the possibility of 3G business. At present, the proportion of mobile users in college and university has reached 68.36%. Therefore, lower education levels and aging phenomena, will definitely limit, and even suppress the demand for 3G. How to start and cultivate this market as soon as possible is a problem that operators should consider, and how to effectively combine education with 3G development in policies, and form a procedure that the government and control department should consider.
6,3g costs and price constraints
According to the experience of 3G in Europe, 3G relative 2G has a certain advantage in cost, which makes 3G business to provide users with cheaper phone bills. According to the survey, users have high sensitivity to 3G prices, so low prices can effectively attract users. However, if the call is too low, it cannot maintain the sustainable development of the operator, and even the cost can be covered, and the operator will cause great harm. Therefore, the key to determining the tariff is to ensure that the benefits of users and operators can reach a balance, which is not easy.
In addition to the 3G phone, users are also sensitive to 3G mobile phones. In Japan, in order to attract users to replace 2G mobile phones, the price of 3G mobile phones is basically flat or slightly higher, but the performance and use are more than 2G. In this case, the user compares the cost-effective comparison of the 3G mobile phone to be high, give up 2G mobile phones and transfer to 3G mobile phones will naturally slip more. Importantly, the competitive price of 3G mobile phones requires all as possible to reduce costs as possible, including artificial, material, sales, etc.
From the regional development, China has been unbalanced from east to west. Therefore, 3G business should have differences in time, price, etc. in different regions, otherwise it is likely that there is a problem with small use after the business launch, this aspect may It will cause the network to build idle, thereby causing unnecessary resources; on the other hand, it will extend the recovery period of operators' investment, and increase the cost of operation.
The development of business tariffs is very important to the use of 3G services. How to determine the price of the 3G business, both make the company's earnings, and the key to the burden of the people, depending on whether the calculation of 3G cost is accurate or not. Therefore, before the 3G service is launched, the cost measurement and comparison of different 3G technology should be started in advance, as this is the basis of finalizing the price of 3G business, the government, research institutions should carry out this research as soon as possible, providing the operator's future decision-making Necessary help and support. It is well known that the cost is closely related to the scale. Only after the cost is effective, it is effective, so it is important to determine the reasonable economic scale of 3G, but in the influence of such a number of factors such as market demand, business type, industrial policy, to think Determine relatively accurate economic scale difficulties will be quite large.
According to the relevant research institutions, 3G will be transferred to maturity from the growth period in 5 years in China. At that time, 3G users will reach 1.98-226 billion, accounting for about 40% of the total number of 2G users. After 6 years of investment, the operating income has reached 1 trillion yuan, and the 3G system equipment market will reach 400 billion yuan, and the 3G terminal market will reach 400 billion yuan.
Therefore, the time to reduce the economy will be an effective way to reduce costs, but this is there.
Second, the technique choice is still unclear
1, three technological prospects are unclear
China has TD-SCDMA with independent intellectual property in 3G, what is the relationship between the other two technologies? In China's 3G future development, how to determine the status and role of TD-SCDMA have no clear positioning. Due to unclear market prospects in three technologies, in order to steadily, the Government may make different operators to take different technologies to reduce the risk of "proposal".
Comparison of three technologies, WCDMA technology system equipment has been mature, and CDMA2000 1X technology has matured commercial. In contrast, the TD-SCDMA has been presented later, and the bottleneck in the industrial chain is still not resolved, such as the terminal open progress lags after the system equipment.
Although TD-SCDMA has a high frequency utilization rate, the product equipment cost is low, the coverage is relatively large, can meet the advantages of diversification demand, and strong roaming ability, but from the world currently put into use, TD-SCDMA is still blank. There is no marketization technology, there is currently no practical value and productivity.
From the experiment of China, China 3G technology is the largest scale, involving the most experiments in manufacturers and test technologies. At present, there are 12 WCDMA system tests, including 4 domestic systems, 6 mobile phone manufacturers, no domestic manufacturers. 9 CDMA2000 1x test systems, 4 domestic, 3 mobile phones are foreign manufacturers. The above experiment promoted China's 3G R & D process, and there are currently 3G mobile phones available in domestic manufacturers, but the domestic development capability is still a big problem.
2, TD-SCDMA to be improved
TD-SCDMA has been strongly supported by China's independent innovation technology standards. The special work of 3G industrialization is led by the three commissions, and is listed as a national technology innovation project, the "10th Five-Year" industry planning project, 863 project plan, and advanced and perfect in ITU. At the same time, it also has achieved great development, "TD-SCDMA Forum" is a platform for operators, manufacturers, R & D institutions and standardized organizations to promote TD-SCDMA development. In June 2003, the Technical Forum officially became a member of 3GPP, and international influence was quickly expanded. Although the establishment of the TD-SCDMA Industry Alliance has attracted domestic and foreign operators and manufacturers to join, it has also accelerated research and development, but the development of industrial groups have taken time. However, it is worthy of that the development of the TD-SCDMA industry chain has passed the standard, technical verification phase, and has now entered the product development phase.
According to industry estimates, the TD-SCDMA market application is from the second half of 2004, and the future market share accounts for 30% and worth 300 billion yuan. But if only China uses TD-SCDMA technology, it will face many problems if other countries are not adopted. Therefore, government, operators, manufacturers are more cautious in choice and use. Third, the technology is not yet mature
From the 3G experiment, there is still a certain issue in 3G technical maturity, and the specific performance is:
1, standard, product, terminal maturity lack of maturity
Among them, the standard compalable programs were postponed for 1-2 years. In terms of terminal, 3G is to be launched, users are relatively high for mobile phones, especially when decision-making is replaced. If the 3G mobile phone does not exceed 2G in cost and performance, volume and weight, standby time, processing skills, easy operability, wireless Internet, world roaming, etc., I am afraid that users are difficult to choose, and the current problem has not been resolved. The production of mobile phones is more advanced than business, and there is a variety and category available for users. Otherwise, after 3G business, it may have the development of the business because the mobile phone cannot meet the needs. In this regard, there has been a first car. At present, China has not yet prepared for this. In addition, the domestic problem of 3G mobile phones is also a factor in the launch of 3G services. In the 2G era, China's mobile phone market is occupied by foreign manufacturers in most time, and China has lost the amount of income. Although the domestic mobile phone has developed rapidly in the past two years, the market share has grown steadily, but missed the best time to develop. At 3G, China will definitely emphasize the localization characteristics of the mobile phone, absorb 2G development experience. However, from the current development of mobile phones, it is urgent to develop mobile phones to develop and local design, which takes longer to truly solve this problem.
2, business maturity is insufficient
Mobile data services are in the start and exploration phase in terms of business types, operational models, and market demand. At present, the market's demand for mobile services is still in 2G and 2.5G, and the market for small Songtong has developed this point from one side.
3, soft environment is not mature
3G business requires relevant industrial environment, such as banking and online business, etc., because China's current 3G business is still immature, especially compared with developed countries, the immature of soft environments will affect certain extent. Business provides and stimulus on demand.
4, equipment stability and maturity delay
Fourth, the inevitable balance of global interests
From the current competitive situation in China's mobile market, although China Unicom has developed rapidly, it is still unable to constitute a substantial threat to China Mobile, and China's mobile market is actually in the situation of oligarchy. In 2003, China Mobile has replaced China Telecom has become the largest operator in China's telecom market, and the market dominance is obvious. Unicom's GSM and CDMA market development is not inferior, especially CDMA development is hot. Therefore, from the perspective of mobile operators, it is better to get more new competitors, it is better to maintain the status quo, they will use various methods to delay the launch of 3G.
Other China Telecom, China Netcom, China Netcom without mobile business licenses, due to the serious shunt of mobile business, the desire to 3G is strong.
From a government perspective, China Mobile Market currently continues to rise upwards, prematurely introducing 3G, which may destroy existing, good development trends. Therefore, the government is very cautious and careful on 3G issues. By the above analysis, it is not difficult to conclude that after 3G is pushing, it is the result of the balance of all parties.
V. Other issues have not been resolved
1. Government
In 3G development, the government still faces a series of urgents:
(1) Market decisions and operators choose to supervise, but they can't have too many, how to grasp the scale is not easy.
(2) After China's accession to the WTO, you must follow the rules of the international market;
(3) The balance point must be found in the interests of different standards; (4) must support nationalization and domestic technology, while also have a strong advancement;
(5) On the number of licenses, you must find the intersection of scale operations and effective competition;
(6) Coordination of legal constraints and supervision.
At present, the Government's 3G development principles are active follow-up, first trials, cultivate the market, support development, and the strategies taken are active, safe, scientific, and truthful. Through the interpretation of the government's development of 3G and adopted strategies, we can get the following conclusions: 3G is only a time problem, but the test is the foundation and prerequisites, in the case of unclear market and demand, take a safe way to advance, Actively cultivate the market and consider China's national conditions and market practices.
2, operators
From 2G to 3G, first facing the upgrade of the user's mobile phone, how to guide users to consciously update the phone is very learning.
If the interconnection of 2G to 3G transition period If not resolved, it will affect the quality of service and the user's lock. And the entry of new competitors provides users with more choices, how to retain users and development users, which is important to operators. At the same time, the roaming, network coverage and quality of service after 3G must also be considered.
Through the above analysis, we are not difficult to find that China's 3G current has indeed existed, but these issues can be solved in the development process. Anything is impossible, and the development of 3G also needs a gradual process, Europe, and the success of some countries in Asia have already proved this. It is true that these issues will make China's development of 3G a certain risk, but if we do not cross the first step, start the market first, we will not only lose the development opportunity, but will still fall behind. 3G is the uncomfortable development stage of China Mobile Communications Industry, and 3G will never be difficult, but it is difficult to become a reason why we are inappropriate. In addition to the unscrupulous mind, it is necessary to be more determined. .
