Solitary column quotation stage estimated project time course and cost
Regarding how to estimate the time course and cost of software projects, I should be able to calculate it more authority than many people doing research. Because I have seen how the business personnel offer, I have also estimated a lot of projects in my hand. Many people who offer a wide range of mathematical models have never practically do anything related to quotation.
For a person who has no experience, the cost of the project can probably use this sentence:
The cost of the project = the customer intends to spend the budget on this case
Of course, the time course of the project is more complicated, otherwise how will it be estimated that the vast majority will fall behind? So this requires very complicated calculations. In principle, it is necessary to wait until the cost of the project is estimated after the above formula is estimated, and the correct time is estimated to estimate the correct time. This complicated program, after optimization, can be calculated by the following methods:
The items required for the project = item cost per month / monthly cost of the project = the item taken by the project, the number of people to be ranked in this project
Of course, for an expert, this is simply too low to underestimate the level of this work, and ignoring software engineering, writing tens of thousands of papers in this issue. According to my extraordinary intelligence and super high experience value, I think the budget and time course of the estimated project also contains the following difficulties in the following difficulties:
In the department's department, establish a good internal line to master the customer's budget and the quotation of actual competition manufacturers.
According to the actual competitive manufacturer's quotation, adjust the offer or the inner line to establish a set of words to us, can spend the inside
It is recommended to suit the geographic manufacturer, as well as the appropriate specification label for tie, in fact, it should be done before the project comes in. Before passing the qualification review, you should establish an appropriate inner line in the customer department; whether it is a classmate, a friend of a friend, but also through the help of the hotel, it is necessary to be with the contractor or a customer department. The influential supervisor establishes a relationship between the rest.
However, after the qualification review, the most important work of the business person is to help the inner line of hard work, prepare a set of speech, to give the project to us, is the most reasonable explanation. This fact is too important, so I have probably listed several common thinking directions:
The first is to determine, how do you guide our customers? When you have the advantage of contract price, it is recommended that customers have considered the concept of cost; if your amount is higher than competitive opponents, you can first reduce the unit price of the project, then increase the cost of the maintenance part, then The contract is hidden in the contract, so that customers must buy your maintenance services, then it is recommended that customers have considered the concept of cost; or the cost of maintaining contracts is very low, it is recommended that customers come from total cost of cost. Reflections, and then hide several traps in the contract, making the range of maintenance contracts to be very small to reduce the damage.
When your customers have very savvy bosses, you don't dare to play in the amount, or when the amount you can do is done, the total price is still a high person, you should emphasize your technology. Quality, related fields experience and knowledge ... Any place you feel that you can win competing manufacturers.
If you have no competitiveness on the amount, each area has no way to compete with competition vendors, at this time, this time, the center of gravity is in the shape of the post, for example, we are more worrying, we have a comparison, we have comparison High service enthusiasm ... this is something that there is no way to evaluate.
If you are guiding the part of the customer's idea failed, the last trick is a false rumor. At this time, from how to guide the customer's thoughts, turn to how to deceive customers. Several more common sayings are that XX companies are currently facing a very serious financial crisis. The company may face close closes. I heard that XX is seriously insufficient human resources. All people have been transferred to support more important cases. Said XX's previous OO project, the speed is super slow, I heard the previous OO project, DELAY is about two years, and now there is no more time ... When you race your brain, I can't think about anything. At this time, you need to compare a constructive approach, such as the following practices:
White-made company wants to build an Enterprise Portal, after a long qualification review, there are only two manufacturers, currently being a stage of negotiating prices. Honda and Will are just a salesman who belong to two different companies. It is only whiteline. Under the signing line of the common friends in both parties, Honda arranged a secret meeting.
Honda: I heard that you are considering the company's Enterprise Portal.
Will: Uh huh.
Honda: I know that you have already spent 30,000 to go to the Baronar, honestly, we also spent 50,000 in their manager. However, I know that our quotation will be higher than you, our technical skills are better than you ...
Will: So? We will get marked.
Honda: I know that their budget is one thousandth million, they now collect our money, but they want to play two-hand strategy, press the total cost; on the one hand, take your price, come to our price; Aspect, with our price, to press your price.
Will: Do you want to cut prices?
Honda: This is the poor now, it is really a loss. I know that their class long wants this to do this, he wants to use seven million to transaction, honestly, this is not to earn your head; we have not earned head.
Will: Do you have any suggestions?
Honda: You previously quoted one thousand three million, now we have reported a thousands of million, I see they still want to continue to play. I spent the payment of the money, and the two companies fight, but they can't make any money. This is not. I am looking for you today, I want to suggest two companies to cooperate. If we don't cut the price, this case is given to you, then you pay us a 150,000 consultant fee or consulting fee, we can discuss again, we find a company to develop tickets to you; otherwise we use nine million When your next package; if you do this, let's see how much you want. What do you think?
......
It will be able to operate the contract price after discussing the contract price. Of course, the premise is to be able to take all the Internet to enter the safety list, and the customer has a pressure not doing. It is ingenious to use it in a heart.
Regarding how to quote for the project, some people will tend to adopt a detailed cutting of the work, and then listed each work, plus a certain buffer, plus a certain amount of gross profit, only for quotation. This cost gross profit method has been changed by a new generation of marketing concepts, which is also a model transfer (Paradigm Shift). That is, we should be aware of the customer's awareness of product value, not to make a quote. If the customer does not have a concept, it should try to deceive customers. If the customer has a $ 30 million budget, only 10 million is an evil, which will reduce the speed of capital social wealth. Of course, when the project truly to be packaged, there will be many scenes to be explained. That is to say, it is necessary to reverse the work of the cost gross glea from the price you are willing to pay from the customer. Because all customers just want to pay your work for everyone, they are not false, and they didn't make their heads at all.
Customer information will usually ask for more detailed project planning, such as providing STATEMENT OF WORK, SOW, or requires detailed project time course planning, will always have a user who has not been bought, will want Understand the basis and method of valuation ...
This is where the project manager can play an utility. Usually he has two options:
According to the analysis of scientific methods and previous project statistics, it provides a more precise prediction with mathematical models.
As you happy, casually.
In Taiwan, the project is usually blurred on the scope of the project. It is impossible to predict the future. If you can accurately predict future people will buy stocks, when Valentine Buffett is just fine, no need for project managers. According to statistics, the readers of this book can predict the opportunity of the future should be approaching zero, so the first method can not consider it.
Needless to raise most of the company, there is no collection of any project statistics, as well as predicting the future in mathematical models, how much work is to do.
The real smart person will take the second method. Just put it, or you have to be screwdrous, so that you can find an appropriate replacement when you are questioned by the boss. Here I will introduce the project manager in the estimated process, the common process is detailed.
Public opinion
The focus of public opinion investigation is that the project manager needs to distinguish all the work first. That is, the project manager must know that all work items should be made. In principle, if the work project is not clear, the intelligence of the copying people is almost.
Wait until every job is distinguished, then you will have to find a dentist ghost every work and ask them to provide time history. Then the results of the public opinion survey were followed. It is important to note that it is necessary to determine that each job is to find a person who is willing to provide estimated data. The following example is a bad example:
Bruce: Lacey, what do you think of the system analysis of this case for a few months?
Lingui Ledi: Wang Wang Wang.
Bruce recorded, systematic analysis: three months ...
Ten months later:
Gina: Bruce, why you have to spend three months in your estimated system, but the optical system analysis has spent ten months? Who is this? What will happen?
Bruce: ... (This Lace, I want to take you into meat to eat ...) this ...
The correct approach is:
Bruce: Sayumen, what do you think of this case system analysis takes a few months?
Testeen: Well ... I think, at least three months ... five months.
Bruce recorded, systematic analysis: six months ...
Three days later:
Gina: Why do you expect the system to spend six months, how do you have to have this time? Bruce: This is an estimate of the Sai gate. In order to be afraid of the situation, I add some buffer. If you don't feel, do you want to talk to the Sky ...
Ten months later:
Gina: Why do you expect system analysis to spend six months, but finally spent ten months now not see a shadow?
Bruce: This is an estimated time. He has been estimated for five months. However, I have added a month of buffer, but now it looks, it is still not enough, of course, this is not the event, nor we don't have I have a good job, it is too optimistic.
Gina: Testeen, how did you find this figure? ...
Through the public opinion, on the one hand, the project can enjoy the fun of participating in the project. If the work is successfully completed, this is of course your leadership can achieve task smoothly; if the work is delayed, you have a minimum of you can shirk responsibility. Of course, when this is the dead time, most of them are also framed.
Weighted calculation
After the public opinion has been completed, there are actually two movements to do, the first is weighted calculation.
All predifications will have an error, depending on the scientific statistics, the size of the error, how many times will step on your life in a lifetime. In principle, the smaller the dog, the smaller the error. Just these errors are randomly distributed among different projects.
It is because this reason makes the estimate of the project very inaccurate. This is why we want to weigh the calculation. Because things always have unexpected possibilities, we usually we will predict a certain buffer for each work item. Coupled with our understanding of the project, it will add a certain weight, for example: Steven estimated time, need to multiply by double; Andy estimated time, need to multiply; Joyce estimated The time is to multiply by 0.8 times ...
In addition, we usually focus on technical difficulties, and various risk factors, we will set a certain weight, coupled with items that can be changed, and then multiplied by one weight.
The focus of this method is that all the weight is your free card, just judge it by yourself. That is to say, all of them are based on your personal experience, as well as the inspiration you given up, and the formulas formed by the strange policy specified.
After the project member's free card, after the weight of a free card, you will get a time you amplified many times at this time. This is why we usually need to bargain. However, before further exploring the price of the market, we should first look at the deformation of these two methods: Superman estimation method.
Superman estimation method
In principle, this method is to combine the characteristics of public opinion and weighted calculations. In democratic countries, all people with voting are all in the process of changing the world. Using a public opinion, you can have a sense of participation. The problem is that the company is usually not a democratic world, from the boss usually knows through the election. The boss usually has a special trustworthy, just like the head of the government, especially the views of the expert scholars, these people are usually the source of information when the boss decides. These people usually have superman first, and you can fly around the earth with super-light speed. Since the hair cannot withstand this high-speed flight friction, the head usually becomes bare. We can simply classify these people as "Super People".
For Superman, it is estimated that this problem can be used from their extraordinary X-ray eyes, and it is possible to predict the future. (Don't ask me that X-rays all the relationships with forecasting.) Just the project manager usually listed the ability of superman and ordinary people due to experience. At this time, the debate is usually in the strength of the superman is equal to the results of several Van Fu. Superman: Because I am a superman, I will use light speed flight, so I think this project, if I should do it, I can do it for three months.
Bruce: Superman, this is because your strength is too big, so I don't think you can use your standard to see this ordinary world. I think we should have a minimum of four times, and I will be expected to be completed for twelve months.
Gina: Bruce, you still overestimate the people's ability, I think it's almost five times.
At this time, the problem is usually in the end of a superman equal to how many mortals are useless. In fact, Superman usually just puts a certainly impossible lower limit, let everyone add code. In addition, usually because Superman is busy save the world, so there is usually no time to participate in the development of this project. So the project will still be delay as expected.
bargain
All estimated time is needed to experience this process. Typical examples are as follows:
Bruce: System analysis takes six months?
Gina: But the customer wants to go online in ten months, and the system analysis of six months is not possible. Bruce, why is you expected to spend six months, how do you have to do this?
Bruce: This is the season, I can't keep a bit of buffer?
Gina: I give you more people. I invite the history of Hugh 50% to help you, finished over four months.
Bruce: It is impossible, it takes five months.
Gina: I invite Strong to help you this time, but you have to determine his time to stare. Don't let him be busy with other things. Now you have two full-time people, I think it should be done within three months.
Bruce: still impossible, Shi Zhuang is busy, I will never believe that he can fully support. For insurance, I think the least four or a half months.
Gina: You have to give them pressure, you must squeeze their productivity. In any case, it must be completed within four months.
Bruce: Ok. let me try.
This kind of thing is too much, but it will understand. When the Schedule is usually estimated at the beginning, it will preserve part of the buffer, waiting for the boss to cut. This kind of bargaining behavior will become a time to be staged, and the drama to be staged. In fact, it is similar to Taiwanese to buy and sell things in Night Market.
Final adjustment
Regardless of the previous bargaining, finally, it is necessary to make the final adjustment according to the customer's budget. For example, the project's offer, according to the calculation, spend seven hundred or five million; but the customer is only 5 million budgets. What should I do?
A method is to change the scope of the project. Most of this salesman usually do not do, because of a good customer relationship, it is the number of more ways to retreat in salesman; another good way, it is the use of political pressure, forced project managers. Modify the forecast, you can complete the final adjustment.
Compared with the customer's lip gun, it is necessary to fight the danger of destroying the relationship between customers, help the project manager wear the top hat, ask if his adjustment is too much?
This has to return to the steps just now. Just this time, it is the killing of the real knife.
Honda: I think the Risk Factor of this case should not be so high.
Bruce: What is possible! We have never done J2EE case. Honda: I know that you must, you have a strong technical ability, certainly no problem.
Bruce (I took a high hat, I have a hard time in my heart, try the final defense): According to the company's regulations, this risk factor is to be marked 2.
Gina: This, Bruce, you can first send a program designer to accept Sun's training. When he came back, taught other people. This way you feel that you can accept Honda's recommendations.
Bruce (Okay, Honda, you have left the boss to be lied, I don't do bad people.): I personally feel improper, but if Honda persists, I think the risk factor can be adjusted to 1.
Gina: How much is it?
Honda: So our quotation is 6 million.
Gina: Honda, six million should be able to try it.
Honda: The contractor is packaged with me. I heard that their company has recently there will be a reduced budget program. I don't grab it now, there may be no chance.
Gina: Honda, I think you still have to try it. Anyway, Bruce, test really want this time? Can you use 2 people, half a month?
Bruce (also bargaining. These idiots, every time I cut the test time): I think this is very high ...
Gina: You can plan your work well, want to smart, not Work Hard. I want to follow your Team's ability, there should be no problem.
Bruce (also received a high hat, these people don't know what they are talking about?): I think it is still not appropriate.
Honda: Gina, so we will not pick up this case. Bruce, can you think about anything else?
Bruce: Hey, testing is not enough for a month, otherwise you will shrink the importation of the time. But I have to declare in advance, this, I have to talk to Programmer.
Honda: This should be able to talk.
Gina: You can reach a consensus, so it is best. Honda, if you need it, I will talk to their departmental ideails. I really think it should be available in six million.
Basically in such a meeting, the basic idea of business is:
If you reduce the price, you can successfully
The idea of the project manager is:
Opposing, any concession must have a boss
The concept of high-level supervisors is:
If you can improve the price, reduce development costs, the stock selection right in my hand will be more worthless.
The result of the three-way, usually a inexplicable, no reason, and time. So after the reporting to the customer, the next step is usually required: "Negapiage".
bargain
In principle, it is necessary to interpret a quotation and to find a fortune telling that your face is similar. It usually requires a description of the profession, in order to see the mystery of the mystery; however, you never know these professionals, what time is it? You just want to earn some banknotes from your pocket. Unless you are also a professional, you can see it. However, the probability of the basis is quite low. So customers can usually do it, they will be in the words, find out the disease, just cut a pass.
However, due to the project manager, it is estimated that the time and cost of the project is estimated by the public opinion. However, when communicating with customers, it is usually provided to provide the original estimate of Team Member does not attend. After all, the bargain is only the leisure entertainment that is only in the high-end supervisor, so it usually has to try to use the following methods and exhale. Nonsense
Using this method, it is usually necessary to transition the story from a certain stage to another stage. Usually, it is not necessary, but it can be delayed, the pressure of the bladder can be delayed, and the consensus is promoted. Typical nonsense contains:
Working eight hours a day
One week to rest for two days
(Remail the quotation order, as if customers don't understand Chinese) a person is 200,000, so six people are 1.2 million ...
Quality is very important ...
Inexplicably inference:
I have seen a magical case using this method, and the project manager will take the cost of the cost, combined with a very ridiculous pointer. In principle, it is unware of the cloud, it is completely deflated to the logic we know. The power of this method is that the customer's idea will be completely short, and you can reset any slaughter.
Customer: I have to see that you can put out a single price of each function, you can't ask you to explain, how is the unit price of each function.
Genius manager: In principle, I am based on each function of RFQ, multiplying one of my unique numbers. So you see, this feature has a total of 30 words, one word 10,000, so there is a total of 300,000.
Customers (the extreme shock and confusion, watching the genius manager serious expression, think he is not a joke): Well ... Is this theory?
Genius manager: This is the result of lasting statistics and calculations.
Customers (he won't it be true?): Um ... I would like to ask, if we modify the text on RFQ, is the algorithm still the same?
Talent Manager: This is to calculate with Change Request. In principle, it is a change word or deleting a word, a word will affect the total price of 10,000. Because this means that your demand is not clear, it may come back soon after the project begins. He is a powerful method, I think we can take a special discount for the part of Change Request.
Customers (I really encountered a mad!): Um ... um ... I will contact you.
Truth method:
When a customer has any questions, repeat your own explanation, then emphasize this is the truth. Truth is not arguing.
Customer: I have to see that you can put out a single price of each function, you can't ask you to explain, how is the unit price of each function.
Genius Manager: This is the result of the expert scholars and prudent assessment research.
Customer: I think I can't tell it, can I know how you are assessed?
Genius: I think I will not be clear enough. This is an expert scholar. According to our company's multi-year data statistical analysis, after a very complex formula, after a prudent assessment study, the result of the result.
Customers: I just want to know what they are based on what standards, how is it?
Genius Manager: I think they are based on the statistical analysis of our company's multi-year data, and help us to organize the very complicated formula, then the relevant digits will be taken in, and the results calculated.
The difference between the truth law and nonsense method is that the words used in nonsense, usually some different, just a bunch of Chen Chao is the same; the truth law is the same cold rice, all the way to the end. Until the customer completely waived against resistance. Formula method:
The difference between the formula method and inexplicably infancy is that the formula referenced by the formula method is true. However, due to the actual estimate, it is not based on the results of the mathematical model. Therefore, if it is not based on the results, it is basically that this model is claimed to be adopted.
Customer: I have to see that you can put out a single price of each function, you can't ask you to explain, how is the unit price of each function.
Talent Manager: This is the result of the Function Point. Of course, I am not listed here for each process. If you need it, I can list it for you. (You must really want, I am going home to give you a copy.)
Customers (finally encountered an expert): No, no. no need. Do you still need us to provide further clarification?
The advantage of this method is that most customers will rise to an honor meaning as long as they hear a theoretical noun. Usually there will be no one wants to understand how the numbers are presented. Moreover, if the customer truly needs you to provide detailed numbers, you can easily edit the number of fumes.
Another advantage of this method is that the general belief in science. The more people believe in science, the less you don't know how to argue with science. Therefore, this method is usually encountered in a relatively small resistance.
summary:
Usually these methods have been confused after crossing the use of cross-applying, the customer's head is almost almost. So it usually advances next step. Customers usually will apply a hand, regardless of three seven twenty eleven, directly cut off a certain percentage of the offer. It usually will stay some of the performance to the organizer, stay some to make performance to the procurement.
Conclusion
After experiencing this complicated process, it is no wonder that most projects are difficult to escape the budget beyond the plan, or the destiny of serious backwardness. Of course, the estimation error is not enough, it is not enough to have this serious delayed progress and digestive budget. It must be combined with more wrong decisions to achieve this strong and powerful effect. I will try to find a wide variety of prejudice and answers before speaking the space of this book.
