Is the network bubble?
With the madness and plummet of the Nasdaq stock market online stocks, "Is there a bubble?" Beginning to become an industry, mass media and ordinary people are a topic. In the fierce confrontation in various concepts, even some of the most determined Internet elements have begun to move. For those who have never believed in the Internet, the network bubble is simply an uncharged fact. They question: "The Internet players in the United States for so many years, how many make money?" My opinion is just the opposite: the network is never bubble! The network revolution will not be exaggerated from the role of human civilization and social and economic development, but it is greatly underestimated. I firmly believe that the development of the network will eventually change the various levels in human socio-economic life. It is especially important for China who is eager to develop and take off. Breaking the time and space network revolutionary network revolution can be said to be the fourth technology revolution after the advancement of the Agricultural Revolution, the Industrial Revolution and the Information Revolution. When we carefully review the top three technical revolutions, we will find that although they have rewritten human history, their main role is only promoted the production efficiency. The agricultural revolution makes humans to get food in less strength and more efficiently. The industrial revolutionary machine replaces manpower and more efficiently achieves the purpose of production and transportation. For people today's information revolution, from essentially, it is also a revolution in production efficiency. In short, in short words, in short words, the information revolution is to make it more efficiently to be processed more efficiently. Today, the Secretariases are no longer worrying about the clumsy, and the accountants are no longer worrying about the cumbersome of financial classification, and various types of text processing software and financial applications have been well resolved. The emergence of the information revolution makes social productivity to increase significantly. But I think that decades later, people may be more sober, and the more significant meaning of the information revolution is to lay a good foundation for the emergence of the network revolution. In my opinion, the network revolution is the most significant change in history. The Network Revolution combines computer and communication, breaking through the concept of time and space, making people at any time, anywhere, can get any information you need, or find people you want to find. We have been close to such a reality, that is, any object can be connected to any object, anyone can find any information in the world, anyone can make friends with anyone. This change has far exceeded the level of improvement of production efficiency. Now, let's take a look at your imagination. Today, you buy a newspaper, can only passively see a limited Chinese reporter's article. But in the Internet, there is no space limit, you can read any articles you interested in the country; there is no time limit, you don't have to wait for the printing of the newspaper, you can immediately see "new" news, you can also see any Past articles; no occupation restrictions, you can do a "citizen reporter" to express your opinion. You can take the initiative, unlimited search, free enjoyment, and enjoy the creation. Today, you want to find information, you can go to the library to check the book. In the future, the Internet will put all the digital libraries to the Internet, and all the records, pictures, music, movies, and what you can think of any text, pictures, music, movies, and all the records you can think of. Same people's life can be completely stored. The network will become the most authentic and most complete portrayable of human history. You can search for any article, a meeting, a news, a movie or a famous life. In the past, our friends were people we were familiar with us in real life. If you want to meet new friends, you must meet and understand each other in the same time and space. In the future, you will really understand the meaning of "If the world is more than neighbors". Through the network, you can become a virtual neighbor or intimate friend with anywhere in the United States, the United Kingdom, Africa, and anywhere in the world, making your daily life more fulfilling and colorful.
You can choose from all over the world to do your friends, belief, and philosophy to be your close friend. Moreover, you can find these brothers anytime, anywhere, because the wireless network will connect to every netizen in the world. Now you go to buy something, you must first try to arrive there; then you have to go to the east, we need to look at it; In the future, you can first try the selected item online, for example, try on a piece of clothes, confirm that you really want to have it. And anyone can buy the goods he wants at any time at any time, anywhere. The new thinking and the emergence of the network economy also brought some new ideas and game rules. A considerable part of them is very unintervision, for example: 1. There are no longer "Software (such as Internet Explorer) and services (such as Hotmail). Some companies even began to give computers and Internet access. Why is free things that are most valuable? 2. The company always adjusts or even change the direction - see Yahoo! Automobile company, now start working in the field of e-commerce. It seems that it is not effective in strategic and strategic adjustments, it is impossible to survive in the network economy? 3. Flower money, such as water - Today, network company's advertising is covered. Many network companies' advertising costs are ten times that of their business income. Everyone is talking about "attention economy" and how the acquisition is important. Can you really eat? 4. Amazing growth - the growth rate of the Internet is 4 times faster than the growth rate of TV. The market value of Netzero, emerging networks is 60 times faster than HP. Silicon Valley Valley Investment Corporation Flatiron Partners is keen to invest in network companies, three years profit of 2000%. According to statistics, B To B e-commerce will save $ 10,000 billion in the next decade. It seems that people who do not take the network economy "express" will be eliminated out? Below, I will explain the development prospects and laws of the network economy through the introduction of 14 laws. In my opinion, the meaning of these 14 laws is very important, understanding them can help people understand why we say that the role of the network economy is not unambiguous, but it is greatly underestimated. They are consistent: do not necessarily exist forever, because the network economy is almost changing almost a day; but they are completely applicable to today's network economy, and they are unpublished; if they follow them, they have the opportunity to succeed. If not If you follow, you will definitely fail. Omnipotential calculations and networks The first diamond: Moore's Law - calculations will eventually be omnipotent, and free. Moore's law tells us that the speed of the microprocessor will double every 18 months. This means that its speed will be twice as fast as each five years, a hundred times faster every decade. The equivalent price of microprocessors will become more and faster, the microprocessor of the same speed will become more cheaper. Similarly, memory space, hard disk space, LCD, and image processing speed are also applicable to Moore Law. Today, you spend 6,000 yuan to buy a computer configured as a 500 MHz microprocessor, 64 MB memory and 10 GB hard drive. You may imagine that it is: such a machine is about $ 600,000 a year ago! It will be surprised to surprise: 10 years later, such a configured machine can only buy only 60 yuan! And if you just want a chip with such a function, you may only take 6 yuan or less. Over time, the cost of calculation will continue to decline, which makes the large-scale popularity and ultimate "ignoring" calculated.
A fun, if the automotive industry follows the law of Moore, the speed of the car should be 1 billion speed, but the price is 1 penny! Due to the continuous decline in calculation costs, more and more home appliance manufacturers, telephone manufacturers and even toy manufacturers have begun to try their products with computational functions. Today, the chip has been applied in every TV, telephone and car. There have been more than 10 billion chips in the world, more than the population on the earth. And this development speed will continue. The chip will eventually become cheap enough, which is tiny so that it can be installed in almost all objects. The future book, wallet, key ... Anything may have a chip with a computational function. It can be imagined that in the future, all people in the world will not only go online through their own computer, but also through their TV, telephone, e-books and e-wallets. The second law: Gilder's Law - not only computationally free, the bandwidth will also be free. George Gilder has predicted that in the next 25 years, the bandwidth of the main network will double every 6 months. Its growth rate exceeds 3 times the CPU growth rate of Moore's predicted! Microsoft's recent experiment proves that at a distance of 300 kilometers, 1 second can wirelessly transmit 1G content, this is currently 10,000 times in our home MODEM actual transmission capacity. 10,000 times . This proves that the increase in bandwidth is no longer a technical problem, but is just a user demand problem. With the increasing popularity of the Internet, users' demand for bandwidth will become more and more strong. Because of this, today, almost all well-known telecommunications companies are happy to lay cables. When the bandwidth becomes sufficiently abundant, the price of the Internet will also decline. In the United States, there have been many ISPs today with free internet services (but to see some of its ad). It is foreseeable that the bandwidth of the world will tend to be free in the future. Telecommunications companies can earn money through some value-added services (such as ensuring bandwidth). At the same time, the wireless bandwidth will also achieve thousands of times the current scale with the implementation of 3G standards! Thus, with the increase in bandwidth, there will be more devices through wired or wireless Internet. These devices do not need to have any intelligence, when there are hundreds of billions, hundreds of billions, even "very stupid" chips are connected by the network, this collection will become powerless. At that time, meteorological satellite can transfer the various Earth images captured to the Internet for everyone to check, and people can pay the account with the electronic wallet, and after receiving the money, you can automatically enter the designated bank. Account; everyone can automatically send their position to his friends through mobile phones and wireless networks. On that day, if you accidentally lose the key, you don't have to worry, because the key can automatically pass its location to the web through the network. When we have unlimited, free computing and bandwidth, "Internet" will become a common thing in people's most rare. More interesting is that the mainstream of the Internet communication will no longer be human, but the so-called "very stupid" chip. Don't underestimate this change, the meaning of the chip will be far more than people to "see news" and "buy things". Because they "Internet", people don't have to go online. In the end, people will not use the words "Internet", because we are not busy in the Internet! Unborsened network growth Third Law: Matcalfe's Law - 10,000 people Internet, billions of benefits we discuss unlimited calculations and bandwidth, how much is it? Ethernet inventors Bob Madkarfe tells us that the network value is a square proportion of the number of network users (ie n linkage can create N2 efficiency).
For example, if there is n users: · The phone is a person hits another person, the information is from one to one, and the efficiency obtained is 1. · TV is a program with n personal view, the information is from one to N, the efficiency obtained is N. · Online, everyone can link N personal websites, n individual can see N personal information, so the transmission efficiency of information is N2. That is to say: If it is increased from 100 people to 10,000 people with a computer, the efficiency increases by 100 times. But now, if you connect these machines into a network, on the network, everyone can see all other people's content, 100 people can see 100 people's content, so efficiency is 10,000.10,000 people's efficiency is 10,000,000! According to the law of Madkalf, the growth rate of the Internet is 4 times faster than TV, which is 12 times faster than the radio! Such growth efficiency is not the same as the old economy! The fourth law: Unprecedented Empower & Opportunities network and traditional media the biggest difference is that each user on the network is equality mutually equality. They have the same creation and chance to start a family. This sentence is circulated in the United States: "Online, no one knows that you are still a dog." Do not divide the rich and expensive, no matter the country and race, anyone can obtain the same information, equally and other netizens to communicate. More importantly, in the Internet, everyone can become a point of diffusion information. The network allows everyone to receive "information distribution rights" owned by the government and the media. Everyone can express their own opinions, even make a web reporter, online writer. Through the network, his work can be "eternal". Everyone has a chance to become a online businessman or an entrepreneur. In the United States, there are many people who have completed their dreams of their dreams. There is a software engineer, in order to satisfy the hobby of the wife, this website has developed into an eBay with a market value of 15 billion US dollars; there is a student, he is not easy to find, and do a directory. Two years later, he became an entrepreneurial idol of billions of dollars. He is Yahoo! Yang Zhiyuan. The network has become a channel that gives knowledge, communicating and entrepreneurship throughout the world. The fifth law: Increasing Return from Virtuous Cycle Incremental Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Cycles: When a product benefits from the market expansion, the quality increases, the profit is increased, and these three links are formed. A "positive feedback", virtual cycle, which makes this product grows at the fastest speed and enters the mainstream market. The process of increasing income is often like this. A new technology, when new products have emerged, people always derogate and ignore them due to habits or understandings. However, with the continuous improvement of the technology itself, the user group is increasing, it begins to reject a rising momentum, that is, the stage of the "income increment" we said. In this process, all the doubts and dewembes that people have previously held will be disappeared, and the market began to open their arms to meet this new technology or new products. The development of the Internet has brought many "gains increments" in the emerging industry, such as Amazon, which is a online bookstore and an eBay for online auction. Moreover, the development of the Internet itself is also a process of "income increment" and is formed under a benign cycle.
Due to the growing Internet user group, there is enough economic reasons to create more online content and services; due to increasing content and online services, there is enough economic reasons to invest in construction infrastructure, make the bandwidth more Large, speed is faster; because there is more bandwidth, there is more online equipment (such as TV, telephone, electronic wallet, etc.) described in Moore Law, and more equipment start online, and More users come. This loop is reciprocated until every user, each device is online. The sixth law: "Value from Plentise; EMBRACE THENTARD" in the old economic era, the most rare thing is the most valuable, so people have made themselves in an invincible place. It is often unwilling to share technology and information, which is the "unique skill" that our Chinese often said. However, in the era of network economy, the higher the level of sharing, the more valuable things. HTML, XML, or Internet Explorer, if only one user is used, the value is zero; only more people's recognition and use, the value of a technology can be maximized. The best way to cause "more" is to meet the "standard". Just like train and rails, if Europe, Asia and even each country is each as polite, develop different specifications of train or rail standards, there will be no "mainland bridge" in Eurasia today. There are still many examples in other industries: DVD formats allow any machine to read any disc, and the Windows standard allows anyone to use any software on any brand of PC. The Internet itself is a standard-based technology, including TCP / IP, HTTP, HTML, GIF and other standards. The "respective polite" on the Internet will only seriously restrict the performance of network N2 benefits, hinder the formation of benign cycles. Whether it is company or a state, it should accept recognized international standards. Only one unified standard will only make all innovations and progress can be more effective, more convenient to share, and promote the final formation of a benign cycle. Therefore, "things are more expensive". Self-controlled network economy seventh law: ATTENTY - based Economy Law. From above, we can see that the network revolution uses unlimited calculations and networks, driving N2 efficiency growth and increasing positive feedback, gives the human unprecedented rights and opportunities. Today's online pioneers saw this unprecedented opportunity, they have deeply realized that if they can become a specific area such as online sales, online news release, online auto parts B to b, The business opportunities they face will be invaluable. The so-called "overlord" is in the user's mind, think of you, thinking of you. Therefore, in order to get the favor of users, the network company is willing to spend large propaganda costs to get the user's "attention". This is the so-called "attention economy". When you successfully get people's attention, they will start to consider problems in your way, gradually accustomed to using your products and services, and inside them due to the inherent inertia of humans. Therefore, at the beginning of a network company, the key to measuring whether it is successful is to see if it gains enough "attention." In the old era, people must first take a large number of machines when they start this business. When the workers make things, they can sell money. In short: "Time to change money". In the era of network economy, network companies often pay for the work of a large number of market propaganda, obtain the "attention" of users, attracting them to their own websites or use their own technology, and then there may be possible to earn Profit, become "buying time with money." Therefore, the Chinese people say "inch gold to buy inch" is very vision.
Episode 8: Continuous Decreasing Price, in order to attract people's attention, or to avoid people's attention is attracted by other companies, network companies will minimize the price as low as possible. In a traditional enterprise, it is unlimited to lower the price and will only bring demise. But in the network economy, there are several special phenomena. First, marginal cost approaches zero. The marginal cost is "more" costs. In the era of agricultural economy, if a person wants to have a variety of an acrison, he has to add human, material power, financial and time investment, and there will be no difference in any one-acre manual place that he has completed. Developed to the era of industrial economy, due to the intervention of machine production, the cost of producing a car to consume is lower than the cost of the previous model, but the marginal cost is still very high, because each car needs a lot. Parts, materials and mans. To the information society, although the design of a software or one content has a lot of pre-input, the marginal cost is rapidly decline, because the cost is only pressed a CD, print a manual, produce a package of packaging box and product transportation . But in the era of network economy, due to the existence of the network, we no longer need to turn the bit of the bit to atom, we can put this information, software or service without friction, for people to download or use. Once this software is placed on the Internet, the marginal cost is approaching zero. Second, there is a disintermediation. In the past, a large part of the transaction was paid to the middle. The transaction on the network does not require an intermediary, that is, the so-called free friction transaction, thereby reducing the sales of the operator. Third, the price of all the goods on the Internet is transparent, and it is easy to compare the goods. In the era of network economy, competition between manufacturers will go to the extent of white heat. Because the price of all the goods online is transparent, your customers can easily compare the performance and price of the price of the product. They can even use the "buyer bid" or use the "comparison robot" technology to find the lowest price. If there is any dissatisfaction, your customers can visit another store within three seconds; they will not buy in your store in order to save or face. Your competitors can come in, and you can grab your customers when you don't preparation. Fourth, the cost of opening the company is lowered. In the era of network economy, the cost of opening a company is very low. Many large network companies today (such as Yahoo!, Amazon, Ariba) are all white hand. Therefore, in the era of network economy, in addition to the price reduction, a better price reduction is to get more users. I mentioned that "things are more expensive", the more people use a product and service, the value of its value can, then, in order to let more people use, many good products and services start price or even free . At present, everyone's familiar web browser Internet Explorer, hotmail's free email service is the specific embodiment of this new thinking. In the past, everyone said "cheap and no good goods", now not only cheap things have good goods, but free things is good in good goods. Reduce the price, so your product is more valuable! Down to free, so your product will become a treasure of "no price"! Ninth Law: Self-Regular Economy Becomes Consumer's Heaven network economy is a very powerful and healthy economy, because it is ruthless to hit illegal and waste, automatically attack unreasonable Profit and persecution monopoly. First, there is no interior on the network.
