"Column sound" about DOTNET technology 10 conjectures in 2002
Small gas god 2002-01-24
In the past two days, my online friend told me that he was prepared to build a web page about DOTNET, record some small stories and development history of DOTNET, such as when DOTNET was proposed, when MS announced the first SDK, etc. Said that I feel like a child, and the time of the care and effort of many people, how can it become like, how will it grow, will have the first failure, the first time Tears and understand many friends in many lives. Then I saw an article in ZDNet China (I was attached), I have been very admiring foreign critics and keen, but the imagination is that everyone has, and there is no boundary imaginary is incomparable. I decided to pay my own imaginary itself on the bus yesterday and evening, and gave a name with him, so I had these 10 conjectures about DOTNET:
1. DOTNET running will make clear division. The entire DOTNET running library is divided into several categories of clear use, such as: smaller core parts, desktop sections, wireless parts, embedded parts, etc. . They all belong to: The .NET Compact Framework, this concept will be clearly launched and defined.
2. The Free League program will achieve significant business and public opinion advantages, but this is not great to help the network unified controversy and help. And Passport will not disappear and will be more expanded and extended, and Passport will become another service framework for personalization, privacy, and centralization in the MS DotNET plan.
3. UUID technology specification is more mature, new technologies will be more accurate modular, componentized, and structured with current web services, Web Services Provider, Web Services Provider, Web Services Provider, Web Services Province, Web Services Province Matters and other products appear. The technical platforms and frames provided by DOTNET and J2EE will guarantee these content modular and structured processes, and the development of the Internet will be promoted as soon as possible to the third phase of commercial services and profits.
4. Due to security, performance, reliability, Web Services technology still needs to be sneak, relevant security, transaction guarantees, and performance agreement and standards will appear, so it will not become the mainstream application this year, but it will At least in the next 5 years, the development of business models and application service models has an impact on it.
5. Open source DOTNET resources (Linux, UNIX or MacOS platform) will achieve great development, and the first formal available product will appear. Rich class library, generic language runtime environment and an open compiler. The language will be C #, and in line with the MS submission, the official standards managed by ECMA.
6. Open source or commercial delphi.net, pascal.net, Java.net project will appear, and more programming plus .NET small tail, MS J # will also add to VS.NET home In many languages, the official language of DOTNET universal and representatives will be: C #
7. New DOTNET's Windows operating system, IIS 6, Application server will appear, mainly for current applications, DOTNET components, business, Web Performance, XML, SOAP performance optimization, and Web Services deployment Improve and optimize the aspects.
8. General web planes and content browsing websites will continue to close or change the rebirth, the current merchandise fee item will increase, but the cost is low; the online simple transaction will increase, but the transaction and information acquisition will change, no longer completely It is decided by the company and the website; whether a website will succeed will depend on its maturity of Internet content structure, and the level of service of other websites and its own team. Other business websites take this to examine and assess a website that may bring a profit run, then decide whether to complete a complex transaction with it. Alliances and cooperation between the website will be close and frequent. The value of a website will no longer be simply spreading the number of Internet customers, and will be reflected in its value in its partner or alliance to obtain total profit. Quantity. 9. Mobile, IM and P2P DOTNET development kits and server software will be more abundant, developers and service providers will have more choices. Ordinary Mail will gradually disappear its original main function, XML Mail, MAIL with sound and images will continue to enhance the functionality of Mail. But mobile phones, short messages, P2P, and wireless information devices will be booming. DOTNET must be described and express in its characteristics: its emergence has a promotion of this development trend.
10. The first or even more DotNet viruses will appear. Of course, there is also the first DOTNET antivirus software, the first DOTNET Xbox game, the first DOTNET web browser, the first DOTNET MP3 player. . . They will definitely appear, just what way it appears in a certain location it thinks appropriate.
Special Note:
This article is non-9CBS official column articles, so the view in the text is that the author is sent, it does not mean and reflects other people's point of view.
This article is originally created, 9CBS started, such as non-authorized other people, please do not use for news or commercial purposes.
If there is any other omission, no longer
Attached to ZDNET China's article "Technical Market Forecast 2002"
ZDNet China feature, this text zDNet China copyright, original URL:
Http://www.zdnet.com.cn/developer/news/story/0,2000081594,20035894-1,00.htm
When I reviewed my prediction in 2001, I may think that I am quite sensible to avoid trying to try again ("In fact, my flesh was greatly hurt ... ")
. I think some people think that the unclear definition is to make the same thing, and they have the same result, and try to make him wake up.
But I, as a fearless journal - but also the technical expert and professional manager, sometimes it is asked to make some other people that it may be extremely stupid. I just extends this year's forecast list to eight last year.
1, the demise of ASP and ISP
Not only two abbreviation letters will be as simple as the use, the provider alliance will be a consumer (most may be a telephone company's DSL access, or AT & T cable access) entrust a lot of high-end access providers. SMEs provide distributed services. I think that the recent contributions are called "Web Service Providers (WSPS)", because their central business will provide network core services, not just access to the network. (Note: If it is English, "Web Service Provider" may be a web services provider
Most small small and medium-sized companies are difficult to earn money in this market. The new focus of WSPS will be to provide an application build module instead of a complete application. The actual situation here is the re-emergence of the Value-added retailers (VAR), because distribution applications and collection applications indicate that the network host service will go to the customer's application service. (Note: And some of the Web Service Intermediary concepts that are considered foreign institutions, which is located between Web Service Provider and Web Services Client, which is: adding value to web services) 2, no longer emphasize HTML
The transfer from the website collection to the web service collection also communicates another trend: the web interface will be transferred from the HTML language. Since the company's habits are divided into two major camps (Java and .Net), they see that these two development models take into account the production of rich image applications without relevant development and installation costs.
When using HTML development to transfer to services developed by SOAP (via WSPS), the client can reuse Java and Windows applications that use dynamically downloaded latest forms (now you can get in a Windows system .NET. NET).
3, global unified identity
By the end of 2002, you will be able to register a unique global identity on the Internet. In fact, most of us will have a private identity and a company. Private documents can be maintained by our choice of identification providers (Microsoft's MyServices, US online magic carpets, or other third-party providers who provide this service). User employers will maintain company documents.
With this system, you will be able to log in to any instant messaging system through a private or business account (or both). The merchant will be able to distinguish a personal shopping behavior or an enterprise application so that they will then start the appropriate internal business processes.
How is this happening? Members organized by Microsoft and Freely League (Sun, US Online and Many Banks and other large companies) will follow Kerberos-based standards that allow identification system providers or by applying Kerberos representatives through third parties. Employee's identity alliance.
4, Bluetooth will disappear
If there is a technology to find a problem, it is Bluetooth. With the application 802.11a or 802.11g technical standards (54MB) Wireless network technology in the first quarter of 2002, the price of 11MB wireless connection requirements for 802.11b standards will drop sharply. The limited roaming range and speed of Bluetooth will be abandoned to unnecessary or even useless sites.
5, the market will return to reasonable levels
Although we can't see the almost crazy stock prices that have been thrown in the Internet, we can still see that the market will steadily, leading attention. High-tech-based Nasdaq index will deepen the impact of traditional companies to reach the average of 2,500 in the second quarter of the next year. I predict NYSE will reach the average of 13,000 in early 2003.
6, Huize (HPAQ) mode will not happen again
Very obvious, HP's shareholders do not have the same enthusiasm for HP-Kangbo's merger with their respective leadership (Carly Fairna and Mike Capras). Side effects will begin with the date of Fei Orina leaves and divided by the HP Board of Directors into two companies - one company will focus on mid-end systems and services, and the other is Image aspect (digital camera, scanner, printer, electronic consumer product, etc.).
The personal computer market is too saturated and unable to support more merchants. At the same time, if HP can't merge with a company with important personal desktop and server market share, then they only avoid operating the business Good situation. If you currently have purchased a lot of HP desktop computers and servers, I have to pay attention to these equipment for future projects and fault restoration support services. 7, peer-peer appears as a feasible business model
Although instant messaging (IM) traffic is steadily growing, IM has not been widely considered to be a feasible communication method that can replace email or telephone. This situation will change in 2002.
The group service technology of the peer-to-peer network (P2P) rather than the client / server will add power to this trend violently. By the end of this year, P2P traffic will exceed the amount of email traffic (for example, the number of P2P messages on each month will exceed the number of emails). Most companies will be forced to evaluate and use P2P productivity applications because they are increasingly using these programs to communicate with their partners and customers without using emails.
8, in an awkward
By 2003, a creative company will develop and eventually publish an easy-to-use user programming tool that makes everyone, including from housewives to IT professionals. Web services. Collection of rich and diverse applications in the Internet application.
Since the build module service will appear in the year, there will be related technical documents and technical support, there is no reason to do this.
In fact, many companies should consider developing special tools for partners and customers, so that they can establish a personalized interface in their company's systems. For me, it is obvious that the Web service will reform our trading methods with our customers and trade partners. Your job is to determine how to do it to make sure your company will benefit from it.
