Http://finance.sina.com.cn April 25, 2005 03:44 Sina Finance
Sina Finance News April 24, the real estate celebrity, SOHO China Chairman Pan Shiyi said in the Hainan Boao, I said that in 2004, real estate businessmen made a lot of money, and said that housing prices were mainly from a variety of factors such as supply and demand imbalance. Disagree with Sun Hongbin, Ren Zhiqiang's "Demand Decision House Price" on Sina Finance: We also held a meeting in Shanghai when the Boao Forum, the Ministry of Construction is talking about Shanghai
On the current price, you should be more clear than me. Pan Shiyi: It seems to hold an internal meeting of the Ministry of Construction in Shanghai to discuss the next trend of the next step. Sina Finance: Is this a regular routine meeting? Pan Shiyi: I don't think it is a daily regular meeting, as if it is a meeting to solve specific problems. At the end of March, the State Council issued the national eight, the topic issued by the document is to make real estate stable and healthy development, as if the law is a stable housing price. If the price is large, the local person in charge should take responsibility. Of course, in the past two years, the housing prices in all over the past have not fallen, but the rise in Shanghai is the fastest. In the past year, due to the cheap house price, the number of government statistics rose more than 20%. In fact, it may be doubled for a specific project. So after the State Council documents, the Shanghai Municipal Government has issued the introduction of two joint policies. Now there is a probably a month. As the competent department, the Ministry of Construction must go to see, it may be a bit of the nature of the investigation, see how the house in Shanghai is. Sina Finance: It is a problem that solves a place in Shanghai or to solve the problem of the country. Pan Shiyi: It is the country, and many cities in China have generally increased high. The data provided in some cities is very amazing, but carefully analyzes it because the original base is relatively low. But Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen original price base is relatively high. Sina Finance: Will it make the price drop? Pan Shiyi: The at least be stable. Why is the price rise so fast, this is actually a problem in front of everyone. This is why the reason why the housing prices have risen so fast in the past two years? Sina Finance: What do you think? Pan Shiyi: Everyone is willing to face this fact. The media will return it into speculative purchasers, Wenzhou buy a house, including Taiwanese to buy a house, which is personal behavior, as long as they do not violate the law, tax evasion should not be criticized. I think it is mainly supplying problems. The land, the funds plus good developers, so that the supply of houses in the market can be formed. Since 2003, the government has been controlling land and demolition. Of course, the original intention of these policies is to let demolition households do not be bullied by developers, such indirect production of land supply. In addition, in the last two years, there is a proposed method in China to implement the most stringent cultivated land protection policy. China is a country with a small country. If the food shortage is very big, it is necessary to protect the farmers' cultivated land, don't be in the farmers The cultivated land engages a variety of development and construction, which reduces the land of building a house. Sina Finance: Now many people think that demand determines the house price, do you agree with this view? Pan Shiyi: This is still a one-sided, Marx said that the price is determined by two aspects of supply and demand. Forming market prices must be a compromise reached by the demand side, both parties agree with this price, so I don't agree with Sun Hongbin and Ren Zhiqiang's "demand for house prices". The market must be the agreement reached between the two sides. The price is determined by the supply and demand relationship. Instead of being determined by the needs. Sina Finance: Is it reasonable to sell a phenomenon that is willing to buy? Pan Shiyi: This is the rationality of the market, and it is perfect than the plan system, the system of administrative orders. However, the market is not perfect, and the market sometimes has problems, so however, when the management economy process is considered, the country has regulated it when the market has problems. Sina Finance: We feel that there is a problem that the market is irregular.
For example, I am willing to sell at a low price, of course, more people are willing to buy low prices, but this has problems, which naturally needs intervention. There is also an anti-monopoly method. It is also a truth. I think the price of housing is also this factor, and the market is not necessarily right. Pan Shiyi: The market is not necessarily all right, but the practice proves that the market is equivalent to all kinds of resources, including funds, land such resources, and the effectiveness of the configuration is much more effective than planning economic configuration. Therefore, the State Council issued documents last year, one sentence, I think this point of view is still very high, it is "the basics of the market in real estate resources". The two problems you just said are not existed in the current real estate industry. First, low-cost dumping does not exist, and there is no monopoly. Now China has tens of thousands of real estate companies, thousands of real estate companies in Beijing, the largest real estate company accounts for 3% of the national turnover, and people have multiple choices when people buy houses, and they have not forming monopoly. , So there will be no monopoly. Whether the land supply plan announced in Beijing is only a unknown Sina Finance: What is the current real estate market in Beijing? Pan Shiyi: The Beijing Municipal Government has two initiatives after the issuance of the document in April. Like me and Ren Zhiqiang, including many real estate developers are rich but they can't buy land, so in Beijing's land supply is relatively insufficient, meet the needs of the market, let the media interpreted such a "ground ruin", that is The land supply has a famine. In this case, the leaders of the Beijing Municipal Land Bureau, the leaders of the Beijing Development and Reform Commission immediately said that the land supply is sufficient, ten years is enough, and the land within three years of the government is not enough to use. I think that the Beijing government is adjusting people's expectations for the future. If all ordinary people think that the land is not enough, the price will also rise, the State Council has issued documents to stabilize housing prices, so the leadership and reform committee of the Beijing Land and Resources Bureau Table this state, actually adjusts people's future expectations, so you can stabilize the room prices, I can understand their expectations to control future markets to adjust the current market price. In fact, the land supply in Beijing's four rings is still relatively small, this is my personal opinion. The second Beijing has introduced a policy and land supply management method. It immediately introduced the 2005 supply of land plan, which is the construction of the airport, how much public facilities, how much education, how much the national institution, this detailed number, this detailed number Nothing, but throw a large number, six thousand hectares of land should be supplied in 2005. I want to come out for a few weeks, I will come out of the rules, and more than half of the hectare is the land of commercial housing. It shows that Beijing's land is sufficient, and the plan is now coming out. I think Beijing's regulation is still very powerful, first of all, don't panic. Future land is enough. The second specific number is spoken, first throw a large number of six thousand hectares, half of the world can be used to develop, and there are three thousand hectares, they want to do these three thousand hectares of land. Sina Finance: Is there a large-scale supply of land and whether the land price should it be dropped? Pan Shiyi: This is just a plan, can you supply it or unknown, supply is the three rings or four rings, the five rings, you say that the room price of the four rings should skyrocketing and Changping multi-supply land is not any effect. Therefore, Beijing's policy is relatively stable, and it is more embarrassed. The practice of Shanghai is a bit anxious. On the same day, it will meet with 2 20 million square meters of supply. There are also many real estate developers who have been investigated. Their houses can't sell, so that other real estate developers are at a loss, they don't know what policies will be introduced tomorrow. However, Beijing's policy is from market supply regulation.
There is no such thing as Shanghai to say that "luxury" cannot be mentioned, and it is illegal, and whoever does not know where the policy will go. I think the Ministry of Construction will meet, as the industry executive, as a real estate expert, will learn from Shanghai lesson. Shanghai real estate has recently introduced a policy. In fact, Shanghai should prevented the price plummeted. If plummeted, the economy of Shanghai is unfavorable to Shanghai's banks. Sina Finance: What do you mean is the Shanghai government policy to pull high Shanghai housing prices? Pan Shiyi: Shanghai's demolition, urban area basically dismantled, and the supply of land is reduced. Shanghai scientists said that the place of Shanghai has dropped a few millimeters every year, so the volume ratio of Shanghai will drop to 2.5, so the supply is also greatly reduced, then in the case of demand growth, people will feel that there will be a shortage of inquiishing in the future. This is the more people buy, the more the demand for buying is bigger, the more you can't meet the needs, so Shanghai has the situation of the house price. Sina Finance: Although Beijing is not double, it is almost nearly 50%. Pan Shiyi: This estimate may be similar to the specific project in the Third Ring, but may be less than this, such as R & F, our growth is less than 50%, but this growth is also relatively large. The indirect reason for high housing prices is in the government's Sina Finance: Can you say how much the average profit margin in the real estate industry is now? Pan Shiyi: In Beijing, if this real estate developer does not do some hands and feet, why do I use a hand and foot? He does not necessarily be illegal. In Chaoyang District development project, register the company in the doorgou, register in secret cloud, so the profit margin may be a little higher, if it is a 5% business tax in the urban area, then according to the policies The 33% income tax of VAT, the profit, the highest profit margin of Beijing real estate industry will not exceed 17.5%. Sina Finance: Yesterday I listened to Ren, he said, "We have lived a good day now", listen to his tone, the profit rate is at least 30%, 40%. Pan Shiyi: It is impossible. We can count, according to these taxes, Ren Zhiqiang's profit margin, as far as I understand, less than 10%, less than 10% is high. Sina Finance: According to this, do you lose a loss for two or three years? Pan Shiyi: When we built "Building SOHO", the price of steel has doubled, and the other costs are also rising. Sina Finance: I interviewed Sun Hongbin the day before yesterday, he said that the impact of steel prices on housing prices was not big. The factors in the cost were not affected in house prices. The most is that the cost of land may affect the cost. Pan Shiyi: We can count the steels needed by a square meter of 110 kg, 110 kg of steel on the entire cost is almost 2%, and the impact of this material is about 2%. The cost of the land has turned over in the past two years, which is to let the gold, demolition fee. From an indicator, the demolition near the International Trade has been demolished in accordance with the currency demolition policy issued by Beijing 2003, and the demolition of a square meter house is about more than 4,000 yuan, plus the first bonus to move a total of more than 5,000 yuan, now Demolition of a m2 house has risen to 10,000 yuan, and this one has doubled. Sina Finance: How much is it cost it according to a common house in Beijing South Third Ring? Pan Shiyi: I am not very familiar with the situation in the South Third Ring, and we say that the East Third Ring is like the East Fourth Ring, say it according to the four rings, because the three rings have a CBD. Four rings to say that the cost of land on a square meter area is 4,000 to 4,500 yuan.
Sina Finance: Is there any cost? Pan Shiyi: This is not a land area. It is the building area. A project near Beijing East Riece has recently bidding. We have prepared for the birth of a bid, our psychological reserve is this price. In real estate, there is generally not to talk about the area of the land. It is possible that a large piece of land is a government planning to make you build a green land. This is meaningless. Comprehensive calculation is a square meter building area land. If you take a walk in the triple ring, the price of a square meter should be 6500-7,000 yuan. Sina Finance: Is this a number this year? Pan Shiyi: This is last year, this year may have a little higher. Last year we were in the CBD, we took 6,500 yuan. This is in the middle of the May last year, in the middle of Beijing, Guangdong and Blue Island. Sina Finance: How much is your house to sell? Pan Shiyi: About 10,000, watch the market at the time. Now paying the land price of 72 billion yuan, the land has not given me, the capital cost of the land is more than 7,000 in the cost of the 7000 light land, and the construction of the construction of more than 5,000 yuan, and there are business tax, income tax , VAT, the price of 15000 should be a balance point. Sina Finance: Do you only start from the ground? Pan Shiyi: This is the most basic. That day, he was a meeting in Boao. Some people said that Pan Shiyi came over, as long as you said to raise interest, he is sure scared. Zhou Dai Chang said he is not afraid. I said that interest rates have nothing more about the real estate industry, and banks improve interest, and other industries are very affected. The most important influencing factors of real estate are supply. Now the government is only published a land supply plan. This year, we can supply land to the land this year. We have to look at it. Shanghai's land price is higher, with "Jing'an District" as an example, the future does not have land supply, the land price is not high. Sina Finance: What you mean is all factors in the government, will the government will come down? Now this high house price is also the phenomenon caused by government policies? Pan Shiyi: Indirect, the original intention of the government may be opposite, the government also solves other problems, solving the problem of protecting farmers, solving the problem of relocating households is not subject to others, in the process of solving these problems, actually passive Indirect reduces the supply of land and houses. In a market, it is necessary to adjust it by price. Don't be over-divided by the poor, the rich Sina Finance: When I interviewed Sun Hongbin, I said that the high-income people in this price can't afford the house. Pan Shiyi: This may be a trend in the future, and the supply of the urban area is less and less. In the case of Beijing as an example, the land made by 2004 is more than 5 million square meters of building area, but in the four rings The inside accounts for only 7.88%, but Beijing's school, hospital, infrastructure is in the four rings. Sina Finance: Do you agree with Ren Zhiqiang to give the rich cover? Pan Shiyi: For a businessman, you correspond to customers, you can serve our customers, customers are taking money to buy things. For the government, the people correspond to the people, the government is definitely thinking for the people. For Sina.com, the netizen is netizens. For the singer, the corresponding is the fans. Ren Zhiqiang is a chaotic role. He is worried about the government, saying that the poor, rich, you are a businessman, you correspond to your customers. You are hoping that the price is high, the customer wants the price low, and finally the transaction must be the unity of contradictions. It is a balance point. This balance is the price of your deal. Sina Finance: Ren Zhiqiang just said a truth, now his customers are rich.
Pan Shiyi: Don't be over-divided by poor people, rich. China's economy is growing, all kinds of things in society have changed, and today's rich people will become a poor tomorrow. Now the richer Chen Tianqiao is still worried about how to raise money a few years ago, now worth more than 10 million. In addition, as a businessman to play the heart of the businessman, you correspond to your customers, you may specifically correspond to the customers of young people, may also specifically correspond to the elderly customers, as long as the customer service is good, good business people, customers are God . In fact, as a businessman should bear social responsibility, but the biggest social responsibility is that you have to comply with the law, abide by the policy, and pay taxes according to chapters. Also do some public welfare things, charity. In fact, you can pay taxes, this large tax government will solve social problems through a very effective mechanism, of course, as a supplement can be some kind of charity, but what kind of charity you have made is always a small part of your house. . Beijing still exists Sina Finance: now there is no vacant house in Beijing. Pan Shiyi: Yes. Sina Finance: Since there is, why is there any phenomenon in this kind of supply? Pan Shiyi: Some people's point of view is that Beijing's vacant house is not high, saying that the statistical base is wrong, this is a certain point of view. Some people's point of view is that the vacancy house is a poor house, and it is blew. My point is that Beijing's second-hand housing market is not built. If the second-hand housing market is really established like Shanghai, Beijing's vacant room will greatly decrease. There is such an example around me. He has worked in the national agency. It is divided into a house and is old. For all the reasons, it is not possible to enter the market. This house is idle, a pile of things or temporary rental, he may go to the sea Or go abroad, the income change, he uses his own money to buy a new house, in fact, there are two houses, a set, a set of empty. If the second-hand housing market is established, this old house is already burden to him, but for a student who has just graduated, there may be a house in Beijing, so it can make some houses flow, Some people say that the process of buying a house is not necessarily a new house, but buying a second-hand house, buying an old house, so that the vacancy rate will drop. The old house in Beijing has a total of 2 million sets. There are 800,000 sets of state agencies. The Beijing Municipal Government and the National Ownership Enterprises have 1.2 million sets, and the planning system is very large. At the same time, I think Beijing is the most critical is the market that solves the second-hand housing. The second-hand housing will reduce the vacancy rate, and the second will also solve the problem of traffic congestion. Sina Finance: What is the reason for new housing vacation? Pan Shiyi: The amount of new housing is not very large. Of course, real estate developers have a variety of real estate developers, there is a contradiction between the shareholders of the real estate business, and there are various reasons for the house. To give an example, there is a project for a long time in the East Third Ring Road. This is definitely a problem in the developer. I haven't talked about the price for the first time. This is the first time to talk about the House price Sina Finance: It seems that the high house price is basically two reasons, one is the government's hand to catch the ground, one is a circulation. Pan Shiyi: Can't say that it is not placed, may have indirect supply in order to solve the problem of farmers' cultivated land. There is no relationship between the land and mitigation of urban supply in the doorgou. Sina Finance: You think what the government should do now. Pan Shiyi: I haven't talked about house prices for more than a year. This is the first time to talk about housing prices. We will leave interest rates, taxes, these problems have a hot problem in the past few months, I think these are all-in-aid, the most critical It is market supply and demand. With land, there is money to form a supply.
The supply should be adapted to the demand, only the price can be stable when the demand and supply is relatively balanced, and if the real estate will definitely plummeted when unbalanced. From a big way, the needs of the house is a premise of urbanization, this is a big trend in China in the next 10 years and 20 years. How many people think that their children, daughters are sent to the city, and they have a good day. If there is no way in the countryside, the wish of generations will go to the city. They feel that they have entered the city, and they have a real property room, they really enter the city, with home. Therefore, there is a big demand for real estate. In the second city, I lived in a small house. Now I have to live in the big house. It is also a demand for renting a house. There is also related to the international environment, China has experienced more than 20 years of reform and opening up has been integrated with the world. It is not necessarily that the house is to buy a house. It is possible that the Chinese itself have foreign exchange. If he is buying a RMB The property of the asset, if the house itself appreciates, and he gambles the appreciation of the renminbi. It is relatively large to see the pressure of the appreciation of the renminbi. Going to the United States, I also take this money to buy a thing or eat, I feel that the renminbi is still quite a value, and it is still very strong with the dollar. In this case, if these people are gambling, the past has been constantly purchasing RMB property, the property has been At appreciation, the renminbi is also appreciated by the US dollar, which is two appreciation overlapping. This kind of power may be bigger in the big city, there may be no in other downstream cities, but this power exists, can't ignore, and people will gamble this, the appreciation of the renminbi. Including international companies, Singapore Kadeda purchase Beijing Chang'an Street building, I think it must be like this. Morgan Stanley buys two buildings in two R & F city. Sina Finance: Now we have to build a harmonious society. In this case, the government should make the public's income and housing prices. Pan Shiyi: This is not the same, harmony is not all people have the same house. Everyone eats the same rice, everyone is the same position, this is an express communist. We also have been doing for many years, just planned economy, and finally everyone can't eat, wear it, think about what we eat for thirty years ago, what wear It is found that it is the market that can accumulate the wealth. I think it is part of the purchase of commercial housing, and then makes a part of the low-rent house. Sina Finance: Do you predict that the price will definitely rise before the end of this year? Pan Shiyi: As a market, it should be two kinds. Some people say falling every day. Some of them rose every day. It depends on the customer's own judgment. If it is judged that the real estate has risen, he will make money, if it is determined, As a result, he did not make money. Sina Finance: What is your judgment? Pan Shiyi: Critique of my voice is particularly versatile at the beginning of 2004. Because I wrote an article in 2004 that the price will be rising, and the result is a mess, I have not talked about the price of housing prices. I said that from 2003, the supply of land and funds is greatly reduced. The demand is still very strong, and the customer needs customers are more reduced. If he is buying, if this continues, the price rises to a certain level, the people and the government have If you have your ability, you will be issued in the event. At the end of March, it is a sign point.
So in December last year, I said that in 2005 is the most uncertain year, there must be a force to pull down, the power of the people, the power of the government, the power of the government, introduced this policy at the end of March, in April is the adjustment period, from There are two situations in April, the first case is the entire regulation process is more effective, like the approach of the Beijing Municipal Government, the government's voice is no matter whether there is goods in the pocket, first strive to make the Development and Reform Commission The supply is said to adjust people's expectations, and then a report coming out, how many land is said, as for these land, there is no way. The government is a strategy to adjust people from public opinion. The second regulation method is Shanghai, which has issued a policy every day. I am very worried that I am not worried that Shanghai's housing prices have risen, but worried that Shanghai real estate may collapse overnight. Sina Finance: What is the result of crash? Pan Shiyi: That is the 97-year Hong Kong, which is very big for the entire economy, no one is willing to see. However, this series of policies issued to push Shanghai real estate to a crash. The policy they introduced is to investigate the real estate developers. There are many real estate developers in each city, some are law-abiding, some are unlike law, unsolicited developers must investigate, but can't suppress housing prices, assault Sexuality is like strike, check the real estate, now Shanghai's situation is like striking, checking a group of seven houses, this seven years will not be sold within five years. In this way, the supply is less, the price is rose. Then the extreme put all the real estate developers, the market is not supplied, the price of the house can only be skyrocketing. So Shanghai's approach is not necessarily a mature approach. Sina Finance: You can't see it now, is it? Pan Shiyi: See what kind of customer, if I am a customer, I want to buy a house, I think the reality of real estate is complicated. The best choice is to buy an economical suit house, and the economic suit room is more cost-to-use, the government has reduced 20% of taxes, which is the best in buying affordable housing. If you want to invest, it is in the four rings. You must have two sides. On the one hand is the practical value of Marx, on the other hand, it is to invest, this property can not appreciate, you buy this house value is not worth this If the money, if the goods come as a investor, I think the supply of Beijing four rhinders will not be very large. Sina Finance: The future of the four rings is definitely rising? Pan Shiyi: I think it is rising. From the return on investment, the return rate within Beijing four rings is the highest, and should be called the rental return. I just went to Hong Kong, asked several numbers in the Hong Kong Central Plains. The first Hong Kong rendence rate is much, he said that the A-level office building and apartment are 3% in Hong Kong and 4%. Beijing four rings has reached between 10% and 15%. I asked the recent situation in Shanghai. He said that before and after the policy of issuing the policy in Shanghai, the turnover of Zhongyuan Real Estate was one-third. I asked the price. He said that from all houses in Zhongyuan Real Estate, the transaction price did not change significantly. It is the case where the price should fall when it looks at the volume of the market. When the volume is large, the price should fall, this is a precursor of price fell. Beijing's house rental return rate is not normal, Sina Finance: housing prices and rent should have a certain proportion, the rent is necessary to rise when the price is rising. Pan Shiyi: Not necessarily. Three years ago, I said that Beijing's rent is not normal, and it must fall in the next few years. Sina Finance: The buying house is not as good as renting a house.
Pan Shiyi: In the current rental return, buying a house is cost-effective, the future in Beijing three rings, the price of the four rings should rise, the rent should be falling, the return rate can fall. Sina Finance: This seems to be in line with economics, and economics should rise in the same year. It is normal economic phenomenon. Pan Shiyi: The reason is that Beijing current revenue is too high, and 15% of the rent returns is not normal. No city in the world is not found, and there is a principle of economics. Everything goes back to a balanced price. 10% to 15% of the rental rate is not normal, must fall back to two points than bank deposit interests, which is normal. Other industries bought a machine, this machine calculates the annual return rate, this machine can be used for 20 years, after 20 years, this residual value may be zero, but a house has a house to bring 10% return on the year, After 20 years, the residual value may be several times higher than the original value, and a machine should be reasonable than the high return rate of a house, because the output value after the house is high. Sina Finance: You have developed for rent if you have been renting, and then sell 20 years later, so profit is high. Pan Shiyi: Yes, those big consortiums, national trade, and Kerry Center, just build these houses to rent, the highest in the country is close to 100 million US dollars. Singapore's Kadi bought a luxury apartment and spent 18 billion signing contracts. My situation, I have no money, so I will spread it, I also make money, my customers also make money, this business model is different. I have 6,500 customers now, these customers have no money in the past few years. If I use Li Jiasheng, I will definitely make money. Oriental Square is such an example. And China has cast a billion, and there is a hundred billion to build a lot of money. In fact, people who buy our houses are the same as our shareholders, I earn the first money, you earn the second money, make money together. In the past two years, real estate businessmen have earned big money Sina Finance: You have been developing real estate for 10 years, is there no profit when you have low a price? Pan Shiyi: 5 years ago, the cost of labor, the cost of labor, the cost of cement, the cost of water, and the cost of steel. Sina Finance: What is your maximum profit margin? Pan Shiyi: about 15%. The general real estate company is very high, and Ren Zhiqiang, their financial statements seem to be 8%. This 8% and other industries are different. You may sell 4 billion yuan a year, and another company sells tens of millions. No, it seems that this 8%, 10% must not. What is 4 billion sales 10%? The net profit of 400 million. Sina's annual income is how much, a few billions, 10 billion will not have, a real estate is billion, Sun Hongbin they are all tens of billions, if it is 10% interest, one year is 1 billion. The profit margin of foreign houses is much lower than this, and 3% is high, and the 3% of New York is very high. In the past two years, real estate companies have earned big money, which is caused by the lack of supply in the real estate market in the past few years, not the embodiment of real estate business and efforts. Therefore, real estate developers should do some good things, do more public welfare undertakings. "What goes around comes around". Sina Finance: 5% of the profits can be. Pan Shiyi: Of course, if China's real estate industry can maintain a relatively stable 5% -8% profit margin is very high. Sina Finance: Since you are so high, you didn't expect to put a profit, you can earn less, you can make more people to buy a house.
Pan Shiyi: The market is not allowed to let the profit, this Li my housing value is 10,000, I want to sell eight thousand, if this market is not a balance price, I will have a queue, and write a note. Because this price and market price deviates when planning economy, it is a balance price in economics. This is the balance price in economics. Only the two curves of supply and demand reach the intersection is the price of success. No one is low. If you want, there is a higher price, it is not a market price. Sina Finance: Is you a monopoly profit? Pan Shiyi: It is not a monopoly resource. I was a square meter of 7,000 yuan in the beginning of last year. I bought SOHO, and I bought a piece of government. The risk of the real estate industry is mainly policy risks Sun Hongbin "Nine dead life" Sina Finance: Where is the risk of the real estate industry? Pan Shiyi: For many real estate companies, in fact, the risk of real estate in the past two years is the largest in recent years, mainly the policies' changes. Sina Finance: Do you mainly say policy risks? Pan Shiyi: Yes, unstable, no judgment, you don't know what policy will be introduced. You don't know if this policy has come out, the government is not implemented. Why didn't I engage in land, I believe in government land policies. In April 2002, the Ministry of Land and Resources issued an 11th, requiring it to implement national implementation in July 1, 2002. I have been implemented on August 31, 2004. Other industries, such as costume industry, earning 100%, but real estate earning 10% profit is a big number, because the real estate industry has a large business. After the SARS, as long as there is a place in his hand, there are project real estate to make money, and all earned big money, just 8%, 10% of the profit margin make big money. Our company has earned profits in this year, which is equivalent to all the money earned by real estate companies, because the turnover is also large, and the profit margin is also high. And this money is not imagined to other industries. I remember that Tian originally chatted with me. You see that I don't know if I don't do real estate. I will do futures. After we sat down and found that the profits and turnover of the entire Chinese futures market is not as profit and turnover of real estate. The film industry, how many cinemas, directories, actors, last year movie's turnover of 1.5 billion domestic film, 1.5 billion is imported, plus together with one of our real estate projects, the profit rate is definitely no real estate project. Sina Finance: Sun Hongbin believes that there is no risk. Of course, there is no policy risk. He said that as long as it is judging that there is a market in this place, why do you have two views of the problem? Pan Shiyi: This is mainly expressive, I think Sun Hongbin's personality is very strange. A year ago, people think that Sun Hongbin's company will die, I said that Sun Hongbin's company is "nine death and life", and 90% of the possibility will die, and 10% of the possibility will live. He didn't count the account, he took more than 2,000 land outside Fengtai. At Shijiazhuang, all local places, others said that they will definitely die. One is an invisible expansion, as a businessman must maintain such a posture, the arm is straight straight, there is no strength, no funds are definitely problem, and the land is high in all places, and this year later after a year and a half. The land price of all China has risen, Sun Hongbin is a high toe, and Sun Hongbin has only doubled his hand. He earned more money than any real estate. The profit of the Central Yuanyuan is 220 billion. It is a real estate. I have not taken it, and I will go to work with Sun Hongbin now. What did Sun Hongbin explains this case? This is actually the epitome of China's development of real estate in the past two years.
Therefore, the place of Daxing bought it, everyone felt that he was crazy. Sina Finance: That is to explain that the real estate market in these two years is also against the law, so Sun Hongbin saves in violation of the law. Pan Shiyi: Yes, so Sun Hongbin lived, still livest. I am conservative, I haven't bought every day. Sina Finance: What is going on next? Pan Shiyi: The next step is hung. Several governments in the East, I have to launch, I have been calculated every day, my own psychology has a base price, and I have been higher than this price. Satellite City supply increases from statistics, housing prices will reduce Sina Finance: The supply of surrounding satellites will increase, will not reduce Beijing's housing prices. Pan Shiyi: It will decrease from statistics, and these houses are supplied to Tongxian and Doorgou. The volume of the city is very small, from the statistics to the statistics, it is actually improving the specific items, which is the entire weight. You talk about the problem of surrounding satellite city, this is a very complicated question, Beijing spent two years of time to do a spatial strategic study, made a construction of Beijing Government, and hired a lot of experts at the time, I It is also one of the experts. After completing, the Beijing Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government have been approved to report to the State Council, the State Council has just ratified. Sina Finance: Detailed specified urban land standards should be drawn. Pan Shiyi: Yes, Beijing's saturated population seems to be 16 million people, according to water resources, traffic, and electricity calculates such a number. Why is the construction of Beijing Construction? The original guiding ideology is the ribbon, this is the education area, this piece is CDB. In the past, there was a charter of the Athens, and there was a charter for urban planning. Now this is a burden, summed up is a multi-center of the two axes. Beijing is a horizontal axis in Chang'an Street. The central axis is vertical axis, and the two band is ecological protection. The west is Yanqing to Shijingshan, like a double curve, called urban ecological protection belt. In Tongxian County, Chaoyang has been going to the east industry development zone, which is two-axis two band multi-center, this discussed for two years, and the premier Wen is extremely highly evaluated. So now the Beijing Municipal Party Committee and the municipal government are mainly advanced in accordance with this constructive detail. Sina Finance: It is not optimistic about this now. Pan Shiyi: Two-axis two-shaped multi-center is very academic things, not the topic of popularization, through several hundred years of successful experience, and some urban development is very good, and some cities are not good. I think this is not a popular topcome that people can pay attention to. I read a city, including some foreign books, I think this is reasonable, this program is much more advanced than the original functional district, this is also slow step by step. Property management and real estate providers have nothing to do with Sina Finance: In fact, when we talk about the real estate market, everyone is concentrated on housing prices and property services. We said that it may be a shame of the Beijing Municipal Government, for quality, property issues There will be some changes and improvements. Pan Shiyi: There is no relationship between property and real estate developers, and the level of property management is not high. It seems to be the problem of real estate developers. When I sell the house to you, the property rights of this house belong to you, your home should be invited. What kind of babysitter cleansing, please, what kind of security is determined by the owner's management. Relatively speaking, according to the experience we have seen, the current property management regulations clearly stipulate that the real estate developer's own house cannot be established by the property company, which is a violation of the management regulations of the Ministry of Construction, and cannot account for 30%. 40% of the shares must be managed by the social independent recruitment property management company.
