[Repost] BI revelation: Doubt creation value

xiaoxiao2021-03-05  19

Author: Anonymous from: IT.ICXO.COM

With Google's "Good luck" single answer option to compare the charm of the business intelligence system is just right. If the query returns one and is the only correct answer, you will feel good luck, because of the truth, any BI problem is very rarely only a correct answer.

Excellent BI is just a direction for you. Imagine: 52% of the consumers who choose the gray pants simultaneously choose white shirts, but if the blue sweaters are available, only 31% will choose white shirts. So if you are a seller, you want to sell a lot of shirts. After getting this information, you will find a way to ensure that the blue shirt will not appear in the consumer's sight. But even if so, you can sell a white shirt and only half a bit.

If the shirt vendor knows if the shirt is blue, the purchase of consumer proportions can be increased from 52% to 67%, how will it do? If so, he will have a large number of blue shirts. But if he knows that if you sell the blue sweater to the consumer, the proportion of the shirt will suddenly fall to 14%, what will it? He is hard, if he can't control the number of weapons, even.

If he is alone, you will put the bet on the blue shirt while hoping that the number of sweatshirts is limited. But if he is more conservative, he takes more information before making a decision. Where is the overlapping part of the shirt and the sweater sales? Is there a relationship with the color of the sweater? Is there a relationship every day? What about the area? Conservative BI users will constantly query the system until the best solution appears in front.

This approach seems reasonable, because you know more, you can make a wise decision. As so than? not necessarily. Specifically, I agree with the words of German philosopher Gee: "The more knowledge is, the more doubt."

However, most end users' ideas are just the opposite. They expect to directly and simple answers. If you can get the only, correct answer like Google's "good luck", just better. If you don't go through, the end user may feel annoyed, confused, even doubtful.

This is not a big problem when Bi is only used by experts, because experts know how to use the accuracy of BI software statistics. However, as described in "Bi Town Society", BI tools are now used more and more employees, and they are not statistical experts.

The words retired, the public does not know the importance of suspicion. However, Bi is to actually serve commercial application by generating suspicion. BI forces us to suspect that the conclusions are derived, back to the initial stage, reset assumptions and conditions. It motivates us thinking, not gives facts.

BI allows you to query a series of related data from different perspectives to closely close the facts under a set of established conditions, which is far away from the facts. A large number of end users must understand this before starting using BI, otherwise it is possible to make a lot of wrong decisions, resulting in a heavy loss of losses.

Therefore, end users must accept BI training. More than just how to train employees, but also let them understand why they want to use BI: You need a BI tool to help make best decisions, not correct decisions.

We often analyze too much information in depth because of the correct answers to a certain issue, but often encountered: The more information we have inquiry, the more don't walk.

Mosh Rubinstein and Alice Filhousetenberg wrote in the "Brain Organization" book, 17th century European gentleman "is not as good as the current report. "This is probably able to explain why the gentlemen at that time is so convinced that he is so convinced that there is no meaningful move: launching a war and spurting the white powder on a wig. It is because they know not enough, so I will not doubt my thoughts.

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