SUN President: Information technology will be the maintenance of electricity (2005.03.31) from: 9CBS Because Silicon Valley is coming from the network bubble, the leaders of high-tech companies are very love to say: IT is a mature industry, we are lower The growth rate will be reflected in the growth of GDP.
But the perspective of this perspective is narrow. Through silicon and software, you will see a much larger industry, which is ready to carry out some existing technical business. The industries that hinder this broad prospect continue to grow is not technologies, but cultural disagreements between technology deployment and consumption, this difference is slowly narrowing.
This cultural difference is not IT unique; we have seen this scenario before. Take a closer look at the history of many major technology, you will find three clear development phases: customization, standardization, and popularity.
Three clear development stages: customization, standardization and popularization
The historian JILL Jonnes analyzes the infant period of the power industry in its book "Guangming Empire". She found that the initial power is customized for customers, very expensive. Thomas Adi has envisaged a generator in each cell in the main city to supply power for the light bulb of his invented. (His first power plant is a range of 1 square mile in New York City. At that time, the object of service was 800 bulbs, and its cost is equivalent to $ 5 million in the current now.) Many theaters established in the 1980s have their own generator. (At the same time, it is also necessary to operate these dedicated engineers). Some companies even set up a "Chief Power Official" to manage the company's internal electricity. (Kodak is one of the first batch of companies in its own power plant, it is still with two fire power plants in Rochester, New York, burn about 700,000 tons of coal every year.
Is it very familiar? Because this is the current real situation of many companies' data centers: huge, costly, customized, and experts to maintain. The power market has spent many years to evolve into the next stage - standardization, AC power and long distance transmission mechanisms have promoted the establishment of electricity standards, which we are still using today. These standards (including voltage, frequency, etc.) have enabled electricity into the mass market. But it is still a scarce resource; in 1902, the power generation of Niagara Falls can be ranked fifth in the United States. In 1907, only 8% of the US home has electrical appliances.
This is similar to the current IT industry. We (in the aspects of chips, operating systems, network protocols) have set a number of standards - calculations can have to go to the mass market. However, for users, IT also requires huge costs and specialist to maintain, especially in large companies' data centers.
In the third phase - the popularity phase, electricity has been seen as a price transparent, reliable quality, and the power is really benefiting the world.
In the process of power from customization to standardization to the popularity phase, two things have occurred: its universality has risen, and the cost has fallen sharply. In addition to the motor and industrial motors, people also invented a wide variety of electrical appliances, allowing ordinary people to enjoy the value of electricity.
IT is still a young industry, we look at the door of the technology popularization stage
In 1930, the US medium-scale city also achieved the popularity of electrical appliances.
Between 1910 and 1940, the US productivity increased by 300% under the promotion of daily electricity. The industry has never thought of now electricity drive so much inventions that create wealth. IT is still a young industry, we have just begun to look at the door of the technology popularization phase, etc.
Like power, we must establish a number of units and prices to define computing power, we must establish a reliable and secure transport mechanism, we also need to create something, let this daily necessities enters the life of ordinary consumers, just like electricity The soldering iron, washing machine and water heater bring electricity into thousands of houses. As a consumer of computing power, we must also look at the role of "technology" in business and daily life with a new perspective. The consequence of this is that various services that can be provided through the network will quickly appear and popularize.
Google is an example that there is a wide range of search capabilities, and search is getting more and more human, and can be done on any device.
Salesforce.com also belongs to this class, which provides customer relationship management services using normal network bandwidth, but the price is much cheaper than competitors.
This is just the beginning. For companies that use ordinary networks to provide innovative content, network services, products, and own information services, the future is bright. This is like a light, it is not a creative end point, but the beginning of a revolution.
