Reporter Du Yan
Shanghai report
On March 16, it was a turning point in the Shanghai real estate market. In the 10 days of the transfer of the People's Bank of China, the Shanghai housing prices rose high-speed.
On March 16th, according to the online statistics, inner ring, in the inner ring, the inner ring, the middle and foreign rings, the outer champion, and the suburban ring, and the interior ring, and the interior ring, the unit: yuan / square meter): 15960 10946, 7793, 6424, 4641.
On March 25, the statistics of the same caliber rose to: 16178, 11386, 8052, 6518, 4712.
Market analysts pointed out that the recent effects of controlling housing prices have not been optimistic. The key to the next is, how is the commercial bank understand the central bank policy orientation? How to meet the housing prices under the macro-regulatory tightening policy last year? How to support the "hard landing" and achieve "soft landing" in avoiding housing prices
Waiting for it not only financial institutions, but also the ordinary citizens of developers, speculators and urgently needed housing.
Merger interest rate "is low without high"
Since March 16, the interest rate adjustment of several major commercial banks in Shanghai has a dramatic change.
A sales manager of a real estate agency company in Shanghai has used several characters to summarize: "At present, the seller is strong, the buyer hesitates."
After the introduction of Shanghai trading tax adjustment, the first payment, the central bank's interest rate hike, the number of transactions maintained by 800-1000 sets in 2004, the first stage shrinkage, the daily daily transaction volume of March is basically maintained Between 500-600 sets.
In the same period, another market main body - bank, its interest rate pricing is also consistent from the wait and see in 10 days after policy.
On March 21, the sixth day of the central bank mortgage interest rate adjustment, the reporter interviewed some commercial banks. Perform 5.51% of the preferential interest rate (lower limit) or 6.12% of the benchmark interest rates to become a difficult problem for commercial banks.
"We don't want to be the first person to eat crabs, to see the pricing of other peers and decide." A joint-stock bank in Fujian said.
People in Shanghai Bank, ICBC, CCB, and ABC, said that there is no clear text, waiting for the voice of Beijing Headquarters; some joint-stock banks are in this end, "We are a small line, the threshold does not dare to be high, to see the big The psychology of the row, there is more orally conveyed and stipulates. Even some banks have taken the "new loan pause" approach.
But the market is an omder. "Can you inquire, now there is a bank that can lend as soon as possible, the loans I am China have been batch." Mr. Wang, who has already submitted to the Loan Application Materials, has been urgently honest. On March 22nd, the two major lines occupied by the mortgage market, and the two major banks finally explicitly publicize the general customer in accordance with 5.51% of the discount loan interest rate.
As if it is a hammer sound. Some of the banks in the wait-and-see have finally found the reference system, the interest rate pricing begins, and some banks begin to adjust the stupid rate.
Construction Bank's first probabilies launched "Implementation of 6.12% benchmark interest rate" two days, on March 24, CCB Beijing Branch announced that the first suite implemented preferential interest rate, the second suite executed the benchmark interest rate.
In the same period, Everbright Bank also changed the maximum low floating limit of Shanghai Branch as a baseline rate down 5% (ie interest rate 5..81%), and the implementation of the preferential interest rate must be approved to the head office. The maximum lower floating limit is changed to the benchmark interest rate. 10%, no need to The head office admission.
The person in charge of the Shanghai Bank's branch told reporters that the bank was announced on the 22nd to execute, buy the first set of benchmark interest rates, buy the first set and the mortgage is low, but "if other rows are limited Execute, we must also adjust it, otherwise it will be held by the market. " A person in charge of the Minsheng Bank mortgage center told reporters that the basic interest rates were performed in accordance with preferential interest rates, and customers with more than two sets and credit can be up-regulated on the benchmark interest rate.
China Merchants Bank Shanghai Branch said that the document has not yet, but there are three principles: implement different interest rates according to the central bank; different regions, different customers, different nature of real estate to perform different interest rates; a batch of cases.
In the market singing and sound, the bank from high execution benchmark interest rate becomes a phenomenon.
Pudong Development Bank said that it has been officially issued to each branch, performs 5.51% of preferential interest rates according to different situations of 6.12%.
The Bank of Communications Shanghai Branch said that the old customers who have issued loans have implemented 5.51% of the loan interest rates from January 1 next year, while the new loan customers (unless there are more than 500,000 quality customers with daily deposits). 12% loan interest rate.
Commercial bank game "there is a compression"
Hope to "enable the business bank to make up for the risk of excessive speculation" (from the central bank deputy director Wu Xiaoling, a public speech on March 20, 2005), and its utility price tool is gentle Whether the controlled good intention can be transformed into market execution, and analyzing is not a matter.
"This adjustment has changed the double rail system for multi-year mortgage interest rate and commercial interest rate, achieving interest rate side, significant on the real estate market." A manager of the Ministry of Communications of the Bank of Communications told reporters.
In the eyes of most commercial banks, the central bank's mortgage interest rate is raised, but the means is gentle, but the adjustment of the market is expected to have an ignored role, and the speculative psychology has placed a certain pressure.
However, interest rates have been raised to curb whether speculative behavior has practical effects, and some commercial banks have expressed concern.
A person from the Ministry of Communications of the Bank of Communications: "The increased interest rate increase is minimal, but it is a small pressure for the medium and low income classes."
How to get a good balance between speculative and supporting the self-occupious purchase, is a small test for the central bank.
A senior executive of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank believes: "The central bank has reduced over-reserves while increasing interest rates, fully reflecting guidelines with polishing."
However, he also pointed out that from the perspective of impact speculative behavior, it is obviously insufficient, "the actual implementation is not optimistic."
Among them, commercial banks are dramatically adjusted from the execution of the benchmark interest rate to the promotion interest rate.
The central bank's focus on the speculators of non-self-employed houses, but after the introduction of the judicial interpretation of the high-court, for commercial banks, the credit risk of self-employment is far greater than speculative behavior, and if they match risks Angle, commercial banks should improve the loan interest rate of self-employed house, and the implementation of multi-sets of buyers's implementation benefits. But this obviously violated the original intention.
In addition to this, the interest rate policy is effective, and commercial banks must have a sound risk pricing mechanism. Unfortunately, "Commercial Bank now not only lacks risk pricing mechanism, but also lacks the social dispersion mechanism of risks, leading to risk and income," said a business bank's board member.
At the same time, the competition in peer competition has become an important factor in the decision of the bank.
"Now the interregional competition is unordered, and the customer's judgment is very different. It is not necessary to make a quality customer in this line. If another line may become a quality customer. So it should be a one-minded, which is often turned into it. One way. "Shanghai's retail business unit of a joint-stock bank in Shanghai said that under fierce competition, banks have difficult banks to implement differential interest rates. Shanghai "inner ring" into focus
The National Bureau of Statistics shows that the housing prices in 9 cities in the country have increased by more than 10% in 2004.
According to the data provided by the Shanghai Housing Land Resources Administration: until October 2004, the pre-sale average price of commercial housing in Shanghai has risen to 8,187 yuan / square meter, which has risen by 27.8% compared with the fourth quarter of last year. In the 19 districts of Shanghai, there were 14 districts over the city's average, only 5 areas below the city's average increase, including 4 districts (Huangpu, Luwan, Zhabei, Jiading) in just 10 months The increase exceeds 50%. On November 15, 2004, Shanghai's daily transaction unit averaged a total of 10,000 yuan.
In this regard, Wang Shuotian, an analyst of Shanghai Pueries Real Estate, believes: "The macroeconomic effect of the local part of 2004, obviously deviating from the original intention of the regulation."
Looking back in Shanghai 2004 statistics and saves such a record.
In 2004, the newly approved pre-sale area of Shanghai commercial housing was 293.89 million square meters, and the actual transaction area was 348.75 million square meters, and the supply and demand ratio was 1: 1.19.
"The supply is serious." Wang Shuotian analysis said, "This is mainly due to macro-regulatory control, stuck land and credit two gate, leading to a significant reduction in starting and completion. This situation is more in the first half of the year in the first half of the regulation density. obvious."
According to the Shanghai Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2004, Shanghai's new approval pre-sale area was 11 million square meters, and the actual sales area of 14.7 million square meters. The supply and demand ratio is 1: 1.34.
Compared with 2003, the supply and demand situation has undergone fundamental reversal in 2004.
Statistics in 2003 show that Shanghai's new approval pre-sale area is 33.863 million square meters, and the actual transaction area is 286.951 million square meters. Big than seeking.
This may be separated from the ratio of the actual supply and demand to the Shanghai market.
Analysis of the person in charge of a large real estate development company in Changning District, Shanghai: "The effective demand for ordinary citizens focusing on the outer ring, but the supply of last year is concentrated outside the outer ring." He asked: "You go to count How many new properties are there in the ring? "
He told reporters that mainly because of the criteria of the Shanghai government's hard standards - the volume ratio of 2.5 in the inner ring, plus the difficulty of relocation, the supply of the city center is greatly reduced. According to China Statistics Network, the land completion of land in the first quarter of Shanghai in 2004 is 1509,800 square meters, including 185,700 square meters within the inner ring line, 292,900 square meters, outside the outer ring line. 10.31 million square meters.
One result, the result is that Wang Shuotian Analysis: "The serious supply in last year is in short supply, which has spawned the high-speed rise in the city center price, driving the housing price of the entire city, and the rise in housing stimulates the speculation, the speculation is more Rising the room rate. "
From the fourth quarter of last year, in March this year, Shanghai's house prices have appeared "one day, one day, one week, a big change in January,".
So far, according to the data released by Shanghai online real estate, the house price of the inner ring line is from 9156 yuan / square meter at the end of April 2004, and it has reached 16178 yuan as of March 25, 2005. Square. Real estate taxation next step
"The real estate economy is a strong regional economy. It needs to be structurally regulated. The central bank's monetary policy is a total policy. It is difficult to play a good structural regulation effect and must be combined with the fiscal tax policy. "A portfolio manager said. For this opinion, the relevant departments have been introduced by relevant policies.
On March 20th, Xiao Jie, deputy director of the Ministry of Finance, said that China is currently in real estate insurance and transaction links, and the problem is serious. In the future, it will focus on the reform of real estate tax reforms.
Zhao Jingping, Institute of Development Research Center, Development and Research Center, told reporters that the current implementation of the current implementation is already mature.
But he also said: "This is a new tax system in China. It launches a strict judicial process, not a reform that can be implemented in a short period of time."
On the contrary, adjusting the real estate trading tax is a simpler and easy way.
In this regard, Hangzhou, Shanghai has a pilot, but the effect is different.
On January 1, 2004, Hangzhou began to implement a new regulation of 20% of personal income tax, intended to regulate the price of housing prices, but the results were suspended on September 1 September 2004. During the 2005 "two sessions", Shanghai launched a new approach to levied 5% in accordance with real estate transaction differences (ie, selling price and original purchase price), but the market reaction is more Microken word. Most real estate analysts believe that this policy is too gentle relative to high speculative profits.
Zhao Jingping believes that how to determine the tax rate is a complicated issue, and it is difficult to fight between the interests of the residential demand. This is a problem that all countries all exist.
The vice president of a real estate development company in Shanghai believes that in addition to the financial policy and monetary policy, we must solve housing prices, and must establish a good housing security system to regulate the needs of residents.
"It should be used to use tax, fiscal policy, etc. to establish a complete, long-term housing security system, and local governments can be." The person emphasized.
Editor: Gold
