First, "Ninth Five-Year" period quantity economic research overview
In recent years, domestic and foreign economic scholars have won the theoretical aspects of theoretical aspects of theoretical and practical
In terms of research, a series of important research results have been made, and the most convincing is the Nobel economics.
Particular awarded some college economists and metrology economists, 2000 Nobel Economics Awards have given two two
Micro metrology economist James.j.heckman and Daniel.l.mcfadden, their research represents quantity economy
Outstanding research results.
1. New Development of International Quantity Economics
(1) New development in the field of measurement economics
1 Metering economics extension in model structure, mainly involving the development of nonlinear measuring economic model; classic
Expansion of the normal parameter model to the parameter model; the development of the time series model of non-causal relationship; no parameters, half-reference
The development of the model type; and the classic linear model expanded from the rules of economic theory and economic behavior is in error repair
The Dynamic Measurement Economics Model Based on the Factory and Cooperative Theory.
2 The parameter estimation method of the metrological economic model is in the constant development, mainly the minimum multiplier method,
Maximum likelihood method; Bayesian estimation using non-sample information; local regression estimate; generalized moment estimation method.
3 Sample data of the classic metering economics model is mainly continuous, obedient, cross-sectional data and time order
Column data. A major development direction of the measurement of economics model in recent years is to use other types of data to meet more
Special research objects, such as parallel data, discrete data, limited data, continuous data, etc.
4 Quantity Economics Application is also more important for macroeconomic sector, expanded to microeconomics, such as enterprises,
Family, personal behavior analysis, etc.
5 The research work of the measurement economic model as one of the important means of decision-making is also expanding. Many international
The institution and academic research institutions have accumulated a number of macroeconomic models in their long-term engaged in macroeconomic models.
They continued to evaluate and improve their existing models, in order to improve their accuracy and practical value. example
For example, the multinational metering economic model of the International Monetary Fund (Multimode Model) from 1990 Multimode Maek
II developed into a 1998 Multimode Maek III model, the International Monetary Fund uses it to analyze its member state policy
And multilateral supervision.
(2) New development of mathematical economics research
1 The development and application of the general balance (CGE) model can be developed rapidly in the world, in which
There is more affected: World Bank Dwick, Demouo and Robson (K.dervis, J. DE. Melo, s. Robinson,
1982 The general equilibrium model for development can be used to simulate and analyze developing countries.
Economic impact and effect in the development of strategies; Australia Horidge, Parmen and Piersson (M.HORRIDGE, B.PARM
ENTER, R.PEARSON, 1993) Developed Orani-F single country model, can be used to conduct a single country policy simulation
And economic forecasting; economic cooperation and development organizations, Berg Hind, Dess, Roland, Holster, and Menbroge (J.
Developed for simulation and analysis environments
CGE model of protection policy; and development of Global Trade in Heltel, T. W. Hertel, 1996)
GTAP multinational model, etc.
2 The non-full information dynamic game model has been widely studied and applied, and a development trend of economic game theory.
It is a comprehensive penetration to each branch of economics. Game theory occupies a large number of "microeconomics tutorials" (B. Kreps) and the establishment of "Industrial Organization theory" on the game theory (J. Tirole) has become the most popular, most popular
Textbook. It should be mentioned that economic game theory has laid a solid theoretical foundation for information economics, and the information economy.
All models of learning can be analyzed under the framework of the delegate-agent model, and the delegate-agent model itself is one
The dynamic game model of the information asymmetrical in two bureaus. Given the huge promotion of the game theory to economics and
Nash (Nash), Selten, Harsany, Mirrlees, Vicke
RY) The five scholars have achieved the outstanding contribution of economic game theory, and they have obtained 1994 and 1996 Nobel.
Jiguo.
(3) The research and development of economic micro simulation model is rapid
Theoretical research and practical application of micro simulation model in recent years have made great progress. On the one hand, based on the micro-database technology
View simulation model, such as income transfer model (TRIM), US economic trading model, etc., has been used by Western national government departments and
Economic scholars are widely used as their tools to analyze economic policies and economic theories. On the other hand, based on the main body (AG
The micro simulation model of ENT technology also achieved some major theoretical results, such as the ASPEN developed by Sandia Laboratory in the United States.
Model, Sanda Fe Lab developed by the organic stock market, the market self-organizational model developed by Vriend, ARIFOVIC research
Evolutionary Boao model, etc.
2, my country's quantity economic research overview
my country's entire national economy is a complex huge system, and in the changing world environment, quantity economic research
The work is facing rare opportunities and unprecedented challenges. my country needs quite in the process of gradually enriching market economy.
Long transition period, during this period of economic operation, the level of openness and macroeconomic regulation and control are constantly changing, this is both
It has brought difficulty to the research in the field of economics, and promoted the development of quantities of economic research.
In the past five years, it is a period in my country's quantitude economics theory research. The country in the original two quantities of economics
On the basis of the taxi point, four doctoral programs and many major economics is also established. Quantity Economics in the past 5 years
Edition's measurement economics, mathematical economics, economic countermeasures, investment output analysis, operation planning, game theory, China
Utility and macroeconomic models, Chinese CGE models and policy analysis, etc., there are dozens of monots. Tsinghua University plum
"High-Evasion Economics" edited by Professor Nai is a key teaching material for the "Ninth Five-Year" National Education Commission for Quantity Economic Postgraduate.
Comprehensive systematic introduction of the model structure, estimation method and data type in recent years
progress.
2 In recent years, quantity economists have been committed to the application research of quantity economies, for the country, region, department, enterprise
A large number of models have been developed, playing a huge role in planning, planning, forecasting and other aspects. Such as the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
The "Economic Situation Analysis Prediction Symposium" in the spring and autumn, the various research groups, and the predictive institutions have used various economies.
The prediction method has proposed research report and policy recommendations for my country's economic trend, macroeconomic direction, strength, etc. in China.
It is deeply attached to and praise from the economic situation at home and abroad, and is formed on the basis of the economic situation in the fall and the prediction symposium.
The Economic Blue Book has won the second prize of 1996 National Science and Technology Progress. Country Information Center Metering the United Nations World
The "China Macroeconomic Measurement Model" developed by the LINK model, the quantity and economic and technical economy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
The "China Macroeconomic Annual Model" developed by the Institute, China Development "National Financial Model and Economic Sports Analysis System
"Wait, it is a larger-based model system. In recent years, China Social Sciences Institute has been developed
"China's economy can be carried out in the system transition of the general equilibrium model (PrcGem) and the State Council Development Research Center
The calculated general equilibrium model "makes the general equilibrium theory no longer the theory of empty cavity, and become a policy analysis and improved decision-making capacity.
3 There are still many problems while the quantity economics is developing. First, quantity economics is a quick hair
The discipline in the exhibition needs to constantly replenish the strength of new students, only to cultivate a large number of high-quality researchers to make quantity economy
After learning, there is still someone who hopes to catch and exceed the world's advanced level; second, although in theoretical research and application research
I have achieved some achievements, but my country is still lacking in the internationally affected advanced results, and I still have no economic development.
The needs of the exhibition. Third, my country's statistical data lack and quality is also restricted to my country's quantity economics, especially the application
Domain development.
3, the characteristics of college research
Colleges and universities are the main force of my country's number of economics development, play a huge advantage in quantified economic research.
1 College research is based on basic theory research and special. In recent years, the number of doctoral and master points in the number of economics came.
In colleges and universities, colleges and universities have emerged in a large number of experts who are engaged in quantity economic research. July 1998 Higher Education School
The Ji Social Teaching Steering Committee first included the measurement economics into the core class of economics, this is the teaching of my country's economics
Important symbols to modernization and scientific, also showed that my country's quantitude economics research has entered the mainstream economics. College
Through theoretical research, development and enrichment of the theoretical foundation and method of the quantity economic discipline, and in theory as guidance,
Analyze changes, causes and problems in my country's economic development in various quantities, and predict future development
Trends, propose corresponding countermeasures to provide consulting advice for government decision-making institutions.
2 college research pays attention to long-term dynamic tracking research, has accumulated a large number of research materials and experience at home and abroad, can be around
Research on the frontier problem of the international quantitude economics. Because universities have theoretical research and long-term tracking research
Potential, can be deeply deepened to the inability of major issues in the national economy and the inability of the economy
Investigate.
3 College studies can play the advantages of cross-discipline cross research. my country's university general discipline is more complete,
The discipline cross research provides a unique condition. In recent years, with the continuous deepening of the reform of the scientific research system in my country,
Interdisciplinary cross research is constantly being continuously raised, which not only optimizes college scientific research resources, but also
Have huge potential, so that our country can be held in the forefront of international quantity economic research.
Similarly, there are some shortcomings in college scientific research and problems to be solved. First of all, due to college research
Research on theory, research work is insufficient to close in reality. Second, the study of colleges and universities are obtained by data, data and information.
Slam restrictions, there is no advantage for the short-term instant study of the economy, and the research should play a greater role in colleges and universities.
There is a big breakthrough in the system, and the key research base established by the Ministry of Education will play heavy in research system reforms and innovation.
Effect.
Second, the development trend of quantity economic research during the "10th Five-Year" period, main goals and key research areas
1. Development trend
Today, in the 21st century, with the acceleration of the marketization process, the status and role of quantity economics appear increasingly
The more important. The development of China's economy is facing many opportunities and challenges. The in-depth of reform and opening up makes the complexity of China's economy
Uppeaption, proposed a number of new issues that are urgently needed to solve. For example, in recent years, there is insufficient demand, inflation
Waiting for the cause, the mechanism, the mechanism, the number of mechanisms, the number of different economic variables, need to be in-depth
Analysis. For another example, after China's accession to the WTO, it is facing opportunities and challenges, but how to deal with these opportunities and challenges.
It is not a pan-ranging to talk, and a reliable analysis must be made at quantity levels. Similar questions still have a lot, core
How to achieve the maximum growth of national welfare and the national economy. On these issues, quantity economics is high, and China's number of economic scholars will play a greater work on these global and strategic major issues.
use.
(1) Economic countermeasures, non-balanced, nonlinearism, non-stable, economic cycle fluctuations, etc.
The frontier area of the study is also the frontier area of China's number of economics future research.
(2) Economic quantity analysis In addition to application mathematical models, simulation technology has developed rapidly, such as Sandia Laboratory in the United States.
ASPEN model. This simulation can analyze research on complex realistic economic issues that do not allow direct trials.
For a "economic laboratory".
(3) Quantity Economics will also play an increasing role in the financial sector. From theoretical research, it will solve the present
A large number of problems facing the fields provide the right ideas to open up new ways for financial innovation. Quantity economics
Will be in financial asset configuration and selection, risk and revenue metrics, financial asset pricing, financial risk management, and finance
Research on engineering research provides analysis methods.
2, main target task
The main research objectives and tasks during the "10th Five" period have the following aspects:
(1) Quantity economic theory
1) Mathematical model theory mainly studies general equilibrium models, economic policy models, market mechanism models, etc.
Parts, mathematical proof and relationship tests.
2) Economic metering theory mainly studies non-classic measurement economics theory, time series (structural time series and non-
Touring time series) method, model parameter identification and estimation method, data decomposition and filtering method, hypothesis test and Bayes
Measurement method, etc.
3) Economic countermeasures theory mainly study dynamic game theory under non-complete information conditions, focusing on commission - agents,
Theoretical issues such as incentive mechanism and policy compatibility. Provide theoretical foundation for economic simulation, monitoring and regulation,
It is possible to study in-depth research on many major realities.
(2) Quantity Economic Application Research
1) Economic growth and economic fluctuation analysis prediction main research is used for economic growth and economic fluctuations in the quantity
Economic model method and development technology, and use real economic data, apply quantity economic theory and model method to
Economics, system operation analysis, structural analysis, policy analysis, countermeasure analysis, provide participation for the government's economic decision
test.
2) Regional economic and industrial economy mainly study regional economic development and national economic development influencing factors and industrial economy
Development constraints, feasibility, reliability, risk analysis of regional economic and industrial economic development decisions, for each
The economic decision-making of the government and the company provides advice and suggestions.
3) The development and optimization of financial markets mainly study financial and financial decisions, financial assets pricing, and financial markets.
Scale and Optimization Structure and Risk Control to optimize the development of China's financial market.
4) The main research of business and decision-making is under the modern enterprise system, the company's financial, capital operations and corporate operations
Optimization Theory and Methods to Develop and Develop Decision - making services for enterprises.
(3) Quantity Economic Software Development and Simulation Test
1) Sports Analysis Software Combined the various new boom analysis methods and my country since the late 1980s
Actual economic operation, study a new generation of boom analysis software systems based on state space model, dynamic co-integration
.
2) Economic metering software adopts advanced calculation based on existing statistics and economic metering applications
Machine software technology and platform, applying various modern economic measurement methods, further development for medium- and long-term predictions and policies
Simulated macroeconomic measurement model, advanced software system such as regional economic model.
3) Economic system simulation experiments use system dynamics and modern artificial intelligence technology, and research can simulate various typical
The computer model of the active behavior is used to simulate the operation of the real economic system, and then analyze the impact of economic policies.
Various economic theories.
3, key research field
During the "10th Five-Year Plan" period, quantity economic research is intended to work mainly from the following aspects.
* 1, economic policy mechanism and policy risk issues
* 2, my country's capital market structure optimization and risk control 3, non-classic measurement economics theoretical methods
4. Research and development of my country's boom analysis prediction system
5. China's economic microscopic simulation model
6. Quantitative research on the impact of international capital flow on East Asian economy
7. Empirical study of my country's financial fluctuation and economic fluctuation
8. The application of game theory in economics
9. Regional unbalanced industrial structure upgrade and intensive development strategy of central and western industries
10. Research on microstructure and coordination development of securities market and derivative market
11. Structures and time limit structures and research on economic contributions
12. Correlation between financial system arrangements, corporate governance structure and financial crisis
13. Research on the interaction mechanism of capital structural policies and dividend distribution policies
14. Research on financial deepening problems in economic development
15. Research on economic policy issues facing state-owned enterprises
[Note] The issue marked with the "*" is a key research project that has been identified in the 2000 economic research base.
4, "15" quantity economic focus research topics to national (universities) tender
The number of economic research bases determined the key research project bidding project during the "10th Five-Year Plan" period. Per year
Release issuance notices and project guides on quantitative economic research base websites, and in the "Quantity Economic and Technical and Economics
"On the written notice. The researchers engaged in quantity economic research can be based on the "quantity economic key research topics"
Guide, combined with the accumulation of research work and the working conditions of the unit, then apply, and then learn from the quantity economic research base
The Commission carefully reviewed, selecting and finalizing an outstanding project of innovative and strong projects, the focus of the number of economic research bases
Research topics.
Third, the key research topics and simple arguments of the quantity economic research base during the "10th Five-Year Plan" period
1. Research on the mechanism of economic policy and policy risks
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
Economic policy mechanism is a feature of the mechanism and interaction of various economic factors in various economic factors.
The Theoretical Basis of Rational and Macro Control. This topic study will emphasize the effectiveness, robustness, sensitivity, and dynamics of economic policies.
Sex, countermeasure, time domain, compatibility, and risk, is the innovative system of economic policy theory. this topic
Economic policy resource allocation efficiency, rule and camera selection, causal relationship and feedback mechanism, short-term replacement
And long-term steady state conditions are the necessary roads for researching policy role, conduction and risk mechanism. In the current international economic integration
Process acceleration, my country's economic marketization increases, microscopic levels of micro-intensity, and actual economic and nominal economy
In the case of two points, the demand for "soft landing" continues to be weak, and the policy is long-term
The effects of lack of effect, decreased policy tools, research economic policy mechanisms, measuring policies and risks
It has important theoretical and practical significance.
Second, this topic research status and breakthrough
Research Status: At present, the mechanism of economic policies, the conductive mechanism and risk mechanism research focuses on policy neutrality.
(Bo) periodic, policies and policy portfolios.
Difficulties to be broken: 1. Decomposition of time series (Solow Decomposition and OKUN Decomposition), Filter (Kalman Filtering and H-P
Filtering) and stable (TS and DS smooth) technology application, dynamic countermeasure model structure and essential description of the essential NASH
. 2. Use the co-integrated theory and countermeasure model to analyze the economic steady-state balance and policy mechanism, describe the macro micro-hierarchical behavior
Coordination, judging the effectiveness, sensitivity and periodicity of economic policies. 3, use intervention analysis and conduction function model points
Phenomenon of variable elasticity and test monetary policy of policy conduction mechanism, metric interest rate. Use var, arc
H and Bayes model metric metric, describe the extrusion effect of fiscal policy and the weakening process of investment multiplier.
Third, the research ideas and methods of this topic
Analyze my country's active fiscal policy and expansion by studying economic policies, conduction mechanisms and risk mechanisms
Effectiveness, sensitivity and risk of sexual monetary policy, demonstrating the policy direction of current economic cycle, strong
Degree and characteristics,
Research Methods of this topic: 1. Mathematical model method This topic has adopted a number of mathematical models in this topic.
Dynamic mediation analysis in the smaller dynamic model system of behavior, especially the saddle point path analysis of long-term steady-state trajectories,
Economic short-term fluctuations (temporary impact) are organically united with long-term growth trajectories (persistent shock effects). 2. Measurement model method This topic mainly uses intervent analysis and conduction function model, structural VAR and ECM model, multivariable coefficient model
And the nonlinear time series model, judge the intervention impact of the individual variable impact and the dynamic conduction process. 3, economic countermeasure method
Mainly uses the alternative and constraint equations of policy tool variables, and research on a given income function (social welfare and individual utility)
Dynamic Boao issues between economic individuals and policy makers, using multi-stage reverse optimization to solve the refined NA
SH balance. 4. Model test method gives dynamic parameter values and selection policy variables to the artificial model, in the model economy
The simulation of economic operation and simulation economic policies, analyzing the role of active fiscal policy and expanding monetary policy.
2. Structural optimization and risk control of my country's capital market
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
In the market economy, due to capital markets (including long-term lending markets and securities markets) have fundraising, resources
Optimized configuration, macroeconomic regulation and reflection of four functions, especially with resource optimization configuration, capital market
The development of macroeconomics plays a pivotal role. The stronger the function of the capital market, the higher the efficiency of social resources.
The higher the efficiency of the economy, the more developing the market economy, the more important the role of the capital market.
At present, my country's capital market is still mainly subject to macroeconomic policy, while the size and transportation of the securities market.
The mechanism is also largely subject to macroeconomic policies. This situation will gradually improve the market economic system.
There is a quite long period. This study will provide a dynamic optimization structure and moderate wind for the adjustment of my country's capital market.
Insurance control mechanism, which will provide directions for the macroeconomic policy regulation of my country's capital market, to accelerate our capital market
The dynamic balance and optimization development have important practical significance, which strengthens my country's capital market structure theory and risk mechanism
Research will also have important theoretical significance.
Second, this topic research status and breakthrough
Research Status: In my country, due to the establishment of the market economy system, it is still necessary to improve the process of long-term period.
, The capital market has only formed a borrowed borrowing market now to form a complete grid of the borrowing market and the securities market.
The bureau has just been just ten years, the function of the capital market, especially the resource optimization configuration function is far from being played. How to optimize development
my country's capital market, improving my country's capital market, and give full play to the function of capital markets, promoting my country's capital market
The stable development, promoting the development of macroeconomics, is a major topic of my country's capital market research. From the corner of the system
In view, the capital market is a constantly changing economic system, and its functionality depends on the rationality of its structure.
That is, the dynamic optimization of its structure; its stable development depends on the dynamic stability of the system, that is, the dynamics of the capital market.
Establish a moderate risk control mechanism during the change, so we must seek the development of my country's capital market.
Optimized structure and risk control of my country's capital market, this is also the entry point for this research research.
About the research on capital market structure is mainly focused on the study of microstructure in the late 1960s, mainly in the market
The pricing mechanism and the effectiveness of the market are the main study, such as the "transaction cost" and Chmsw of H. Demsetz.
5 people such as Cohen, Ho, Meier, Schwartz, Whitcomb, etc.
Research and E.FAME on market effectiveness research, etc. The recent many scholars in China, such as Duangqiang, Wu Shi Nong, Zhang Ren
Some members of the group and these questions and their guidance doctoral students have also carried out a lot of research in this regard.
The macro structure study of the capital market, although many scholars in the country, such as Cao Feng, Gao Jian, Li Ying Ning, Jinde Ring and others
All mentioned my country's capital market structure, but there is no research on the optimization of my country's capital markets;
The social market, its structural optimization mainly depends on the price decision of the market itself, so there is a unique important issue in the development of my country's capital market development. Research on Risk Problems in Capital Markets
There are many research results at home and abroad, and the documents listed in the report have been described in detail. But from the guarantee of the stability of the market system
The perspective of sexual and market functions The market risk metrics and risk control mechanisms are still the first time.
Difficulties: 1. Establishment of my country's capital market structure optimization model; 2. Determination of risk concept in capital market
Establishment with the risk metric index system; 3. Establishment of capital market risk control model.
Third, the research ideas and methods of this topic
This study will adopt the combination of normative research and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and data research
Combined with market research to optimize my country's capital market development, give full play to its functions,
Dynamically seek the optimization structure of the market with model optimization technology and measurement economics such as system optimization, multi-objective optimization.
, With the purpose of stabilizing my country's capital market, adopting Mathematical Economics, statistical analysis methods and controlism
Discussion on my country 's Capital Market Risk Control Mechanism and Risk Prevention Countermeasures.
3, non-classic measurement economics theoretical method research
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
Metering economics as a branch discipline in economics is the most important part of quantity economics. Because of it
The number of objective existence in economic activities is the main content, since the birth of the 1920s, the birth of the birth
It has shown a strong vitality. After the 1950s, the expansion of the 1960s has been in economics.
It takes an important position in it. Just as famous meter economists, Nobeli Economics Award winner Klein is in
"A Textbook of Economtrics" is evaluated, "Metering Economics has been in economic disciplines
The most important status "," In most universities and colleges, the teachings of measurement economics have become the most in the economic curriculum.
There is a part of authority. Famous economists, Nobelus Economics Award winner Samuelson even said,
"Economics after the Second War is the era of metrology economics."
However, since the 1970s, due to the expansion of the measurement of economics, the complexity of economic activity, 30
By the 1960s, the theoretical method of the classic metering economics encountered challenges, and the new theoretical method was quickly obtained in application practice.
Speed development. The most important of these: the error correction model in the model structure, the self-registration condition is differential model and
None parameters, semi-parameter model, generalized moment estimation method in estimation methods, parallel in data types (Pena
l) Data issues, discrete data issues and selective sample issues. 2000 Nobel Economics Awards in Selective Selective
This problem has made a prominent contribution to HECFADDEN, and McFadden contributed in discrete selection model research.
Note The maturity and application value of these theoretical methods have been widely recognized.
Second, this topic research status and breakthrough
Research Status: my country's scholar has conducted tracking research on non-classical economic theory methods of development since the 1970s
In the course of graduate students, some experimental results have also occurred in application research. But always
It is also only partially introduced, digested, absorbing the stage, lack of systemic, and more creative. In this way, it is difficult
Change my country's current situation in the research of the theory method of metrology economics, and Chinese scholars are also difficult to participate in international first-class.
Published papers on economics. Therefore, system research on these theoretical methods, and strive to achieve "marginal innovation"
For the improvement of the basic theory of my country's quantitude economics, China's learning in my country's number of economics scholars
Theoretical status, and further promoting the theoretical research and application of my country's quantity economics, it is very important.
Is there any kind advance level in economics? Yes, no. There is no, mainly refers to economics theory and policies. Different countries, different development stages, the economic development path of developing countries is not the development history of developed capitalist countries
Turn version, the same is developing countries, and its development path is also different. Therefore, there is a so-called advanced economy.
Theory can guide countries' economic development, and it is believed that there is an advanced policy model to apply to all countries, actually
It is unrealistic. It is, refers to economic research methods and economic analysis methods. And in this respect, we have come behind
And there is a lot behind. One of the important contents of China's economics, scientific content is to learn the first of Western economics.
Research and analysis methods and development and innovation. In this sense, the project research has improved the whole of our country.
The modernization of economics is indispensable.
Third, the research ideas and methods of this topic
The project has a wide range of research content, and there is relatively independence between the contents. Anyone who belongs to Non-Classic Economics
Innovative research topics in the theoretical methods, can be included in this project. Set up 4 sub-projects in the project, you can take
The way the part is called to determine the name and research content of the specific subproject. Several reference sub-projects are listed below:
Sub-item 1: Research on the theory of non-parametric measurement economics model of classical hypothesis
The non-parameter model is for the parameter model. The model we generally study is the parameter model, that is, the first root
According to a certain hypothesis, the relationship between the variables in the economic activity studied is described in a certain function relationship. But when
In fact, these assumptions are not satisfied, which will lead to a parameter model. The function relationship between the variables is also
As an estimated object, not given in advance. Because there is no parameter model in modeling theory, the fundamental changes, and it
In applications, especially in simulation and prediction, extensive attention is caused for 30 years.
An estimate of the parameter measurement economics model (including half-parameter model between parameter model and non-parameter model)
The study of the method is a hot spot in the field of the world's institutional institute in the past 30 years. Nadaraya (1964)
And Watson (1964) proposed a nuclear estimation method; Stone (1977) proposed the right estimation method; Cleveland (1
979) Provides a robust estimate based on local polynomial fitting; Huber (1981) proposed a function of using secondary loss
M- smoothing and robustness estimation; Hastie, Tibshirani (1986) and Stone (1985) proposed no parametric full-molded
The estimation method; DENBY (1986) proposes a partial disability estimation method for semi-parameter model; IoanNides and Papanast
Assiou (1997) gives no parametric verification method under the observation error; Myoung-Jae Lee (1996)
The looping equation model with limited endogenous variables is given two-stage estimation method; WHITNEY et al. (1999)
The triangular loop equation model gives no parameter estimation; and so on. In this process, many scholars also have a nuclear right estimate.
The choice of the mid-term power function, the optimum window wide selection method has been studied, and the nature of the estimated results has been proof.
Research Content: 1
Research on the parameterless model estimation method with sequence correlation (one yuan model and multi-model); 3, have conditions
Differential non-parameter model estimation method research (one yuan model and multi-model); 4, no parameter connection equation model estimation
Research
Subject 2: Research on Several Problems in Cooperation Theory and Error Correction Model
As a new genre of a measurement economics in the past 30 years, it has been
When many scholars are familiar. The 70s Granger proposed the concept of "coincides" and the long-term stability between economic variables
The relationship is called "co-relationship"; DICKEY and FULLER (1976) propose a single DF test; then in 1979, 1980
The DF test has been expanded, and the ADF test is proposed; ENGLE and GRANGER (1987) are proposed to test between the two variables.
No, there is an EG inspection of a co-integrated relationship; Johansen (1988) and the same as JUSELIUS (1990) have proposed
Whether there is a JJ test in the integrated relationship between the order single variable; DavidSION, Hendry, SRBA and YAO (1978)
Error correction model (ECM); as a collection of genres, Hendry established dynamic metering throughout the 80s and 1990s
The Complete System of the Theoretical Method of Justice Model.
The classic metering economics model is directed by economic theory, and due to different models of indemnities understand the difference in economic theory,
Make the model lack objective; and the error correction model is guided by theoretical and data dual orientation, making the model have good
Inclusive and agglomeration of objective data. It is because of its advantages, making it vital. Chinese scholar
Before basically in the digestive absorption phase of the theoretical method that has been developed, there is still a problem and the application
A new problem in the actual appearance of the country lacks in-depth research.
Research content: 1. Research on the coincidence of structural changes; 2. Error analysis of error correction model; 3. my country main
Simulation Test of Economic Variable Coordination Relationship and Its Policy Meaning;
Research on Policy Meaning.
Subject 3: Diagnosis and impact analysis of data reliability
From the perspective of methodology, the metering economics model method is a "summary" method, so the metrological economy is usually
The analysis is called "empirical analysis". It is a regularity from the economic activity that has already happened and discovers economics theory.
And this process of seeking, discovery is the process of establishing a metering economics model. Data, as the economy already
The performance of the activity is an indispensable element that correctly establishes metering economics models; data quality, production of model quality
important influence.
In the classic metering economics model, we refer to the error of the sample data as a observation error and generate the image.
Info the random error term, and at the same time, it assumes that the average value of the random error term is 0. This actually believes that the error of the sample data is
Small, it also affects the effects of research objects. This requires data to reflect the overall economic activity
It is reliable.
Research content: 1. Research on the diagnosis method of economic statistics reliability; 2. Diagnosis of reliability of economic survey
Method study; 3. Research on false data correction methods.
Subject 4: Research on the Content System of Non-Classic Measurement Economics
The non-classical measurement of non-classic metering economics in the past 30 years is extremely rich, although no one has systematically
Research and summary, but from the senior metrology and economics textbook published at home and abroad in recent years, people's understanding
It is inconsistent. More representative, by North America and Europe, many first-class economic colleges used for textbooks, by Greene
The edited "Econometric Analysis" (3rd, 4th Edition), comprehensively introduced non-classic metering economics
On the method, but there is no system involving their system, basically independent, section; another comprehensive, by Judge et al.
"Introduction to Econometric THEORY and Application" also belongs to this situation;
More is independent book, typically hendry's "Dynamic Econometrics", etc. The "contemporary counting economics" edited by Professor Zhou Yizhong, as the main content of Hendry's Dynamic Economtrics. Based on Tsinghua University
Publishing, Professor Li Zi Nai, etc., "High-ejection Economics", and the non-classic metering of developing in 30 years
The theoretical method of mission is included in the body consisting of "model structure non-classic", "estimation method is non-classic" and "data type non-classic".
In line, these two parts are independently entered due to many nonlinear models and dynamic models. This is the domestic and foreign
The First Try of the Content System of Classic Metering Economics Theory.
Two problems are particularly worth researching in the content system of non-classic metering economics. One is about
Microscopic metrology economics. The classic metering economics model is mainly used for macroeconomic research, using statistics, data volume
Compare less. Of course, it is also used in microscopic economic sectors, such as enterprise production, demand, etc., but also has statistics and
The amount of data is generally relatively small. With the expansion of metrological economics applications, it is mainly to research families, individuals
Economic behavior expansion, using survey data, the amount of data is generally relatively large, and is subject to various restrictions. This is greatly
It has promoted the development of the theory method of metering economics. The second is the status of dynamic metering economics. Open different teaching
Skeic book, found a phenomenon: "Hendry School", known as the theory of metrology economics, is not subject to
To the US metering economist's attention, generally only analyze the granary analysis as part of time sequence analysis. that
What is its theoretical value and application value, how to develop its application prospects.
Research Content: 1. Summary and System Framework Design of Non-Classic Measurement Economics; 2, Micro Metrics
Research on the Theoretical Method System; 3. Comparative Study of Dynamic Metering Economics and Classic Metering Economics.
4. Research and development of my country's boom analysis prediction system
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
Macroeconomic regulation is an inevitable product of production socialization, modern production methods and scientific management, my country is built
In the exploration of the socialist market economy system, a macroeconomic regulation system suitable for my country's national conditions should be established. How to need
The specific situation of economic operation grasps the direction and strength of macroeconomic regulation, what the theory and method is used to measure this direction
And strength, both science, and art, is a very complex problem, need to have long-term in two aspects of theory and practice
﹑Deep research. This topic is scheduled to track the forefront of the international development of this academic field, based on China's national conditions, development
On the New Generation Sports Analysis Prediction System for Tight Combined with Practice. Through this topic study, we must not only study
Chengzhong, developed the boom analysis prediction software system suitable for my country's government agencies, for my country's macroeconomic monitoring and pre-
Test a more scientific, more effective analysis of prediction tools, and is provided to the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, National Information Center
Wait for the use of government departments, but also use this tool to study our economy, providing price for government decision-making departments.
Value policy recommendations, a group of high-quality results in the form of a paper or research report, therefore, this topic has certain
Theoretical significance and practical significance.
Second, this topic research status and breakthrough
Research Status: Advanced Industrial Countries Almost all give a macroeconomic wave monitoring and forecast report per month or each season
And regular predictions of medium and long-term economic development trends. At the same time, various types of private prediction agencies are also in progress
Effective work, some famous predictors have become a governor of the governments. Many international organizations have also developed worldwide
Economic metering models, such as the United Nations world connection model, predict the overall development trend of the world economy. Due to national politics
The government has recognized that different economic policies directly affect the trend of future macroeconomics, so the government is implementing macro
Before the regulatory policy, it is necessary to predict the future, and the consequences of policy implementation are expected. For example, the Federal Reserve Bureau of the US Federal Reserve and MIT (MIT) - MIT Model (FRB-mit-Penn Economet)
The DRI model developed by Ric Model and US Data Resources Inc. is simulated, divided
Analysis and predict a macroeconomic metering model of the US government's economic policy effect, these models are used in the US macro
The analysis has achieved better results.
my country has been monitored for macroeconomic fluctuations, and the predicted research starts late. In the 1980s, it has developed very much, but at 90
The era was only received by universal attention. Cooperation with some departments of the government to develop practical boom analysis prediction system
Union, business survey system, macroeconomic measurement model, etc. These software systems have become a government department to judge the economic situation,
Important tools in short-term forecasts.
Difficulties to break through: (1) my country's macroeconomic operation, due to its microeconomic mechanism, financial mechanism, and economic
The structural characteristics of the source have their unique way of operation and regulation, which is different from the original traditional planned economy.
The market economy in the West. In the face of such an intricate economic environment, how to develop a macroeconomic model in accordance with my country's national conditions
How to correctly analyze and judge the trend of macroeconomic economy and propose appropriate policy recommendations, it is difficult to break through this topic.
. This topic is proposed to use nonlinear technology, analysis to determine the economic cycle fluctuations and their trend deviation from long-term equalization error -
Is it caused by the internal mechanism of the economy or the external reasons such as policies, and the research is macro-regulatory and pre-
Provide reliable scientific basis. (2) For the development of various new economic measurements, especially
The analysis, simulation and forecast of my country's economy is difficult to break through this topic. The economic system has its own inherent characteristics.
This is the possibility of short-term imbalance, but this short-term deviation occurs, and the lamination of time will
Long-term equalization adjustment. In addition, although multiple economic time sequences may be non-stationary, some variables are maintained
Hold long-term stability. Since the co-integration theory can reveal the above characteristics in the economic system, they have been admitted.
At the point of view, it is widely used. In the United States, Japan and other countries have become an indispensable analysis of economic issues.
Tool of. We have studied the integration theory and methods in 1996, and developed corresponding software, this topic group
Preparing this method to detect the relationship between my country's macroeconomic index, and use this as a premise to establish my country's macroeconomic economy
Error correction model analyzes and predicts the operation of macroeconomics and its characteristics. (3) Due to my country's reform and opening up
Constantly, the economic structure is in the process of changing, the fixed parameter model is difficult to adapt to this change, so this
Timic-Varying Parameter Model. Establish variable ginseng by using status space method
The number of structural time series models is very complicated in the math method or in the model construction, and the calculation work is also
Quite big, this is also difficult to break through this topic. (4) This topic is proposed to apply macroeconomic monthly data, comprehensive judgment
Broken future economic growth cycle fluctuations, through predicting the turning point of economic growth cycle fluctuations to predict the macro
View the trend of the economy.
Third, the research ideas and methods of this topic
This topic is proposed to adopt theoretical research and empirical research combined with the combination of qualitative research and quantitative research.
The study. In research we plan to develop a variety of new economic metering methods to increase simulation, analysis, predictive results reliability
And accuracy.
(1) For the contents of the study, use the convenience of online inquiry, check and collect relevant information, and track international
Domestic latest developments. At the same time after further research and grasp the relevant theory and methods, focus on analyzing, research domestic and foreign
New results in the above aspects. In response to the characteristics of the contents of various contents in the topic, the research is carried out according to the appropriate division of work in the project team, and the research is carried out, and the communication, rejection and supplementation in the form of the discussion class.
(2) In the development process, attach importance to the guidance of model development in model, while taking into account China Economic Operators
The actual situation of the system, establish a macroeconomic metering model that is mainly based on demand orientation, combining demand and supply. this
The topic group will focus on the role of financial and monetary policy tools in macro control, simulate experiments.
According to the actual data continuous inspection and improvement, provide valuable reference for the government's macroeconomic regulation.
(3) After determining the modeling method and related technologies, based on the pre-period analysis prediction software,
New technologies and new means of internal and external software development, using object-oriented technology and visual programming tools, develop a new generation
Sports analysis predictive software system. This software system will have a good user interface, the function is perfect, and the operation is convenient.
To analyze and develop a highly modernized tool for macroeconomic policies.
5. China's economic microscopic simulation model
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
At present, the most common tools for macroeconomic analysis are macroeconomic metering models and calculated general equilibrium models. These ones
The economic model uses a typical individual instead of a group, ignoring the difference, interactivity and progress of different individuals in the group.
The degree of development. If the typical individual is expected to be interpreted as a mean of all individuals, the highest value of the mean is not equal to
Individual expected mean, which is the reason why traditional economic models cannot be very accurately predicted. In addition, from essential
Speaking that the development and evolution of the economic system is based on evolutionary and non-first conduct, which leads to traditional economic models in the new economy.
There is no power in front of the status and policy. Micro simulation model based on the main body can solve these problems well, and can be used as a tradition
The beneficial supplement of economic model is of great theoretical significance. my country is in reform and opening up, economic transition period, no
A precedent can follow, develop China's economic micro simulation model to analyze the operational law of my country's economy and assist government departments
The situation and the development of macroeconomic policies have a very high practical significance.
Second, this topic research status and breakthrough
Research Status: In the 1990s, the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology is many areas of economics, such as economic dynamics,
Evolutionary economics and calculation economics, inject new blood, and gradually form a new branch of micro simulation ---
Computational economics in the subject. Representative studies include: ARIFOVIC application genetic algorithm learning spider web model rational pre-
Price; Marimon application classifier system solves the equilibrium of five different families; VRIEND application classifier system simulates the city
The self-organized process of the field, demonstrating the principle of Schi's "invisible hand"; Bruun application artificial adaptive main technology is upward
Simulate the monetary production system, trying to join the microstructure for the Macroeconomic theory of Keynes. These work is for large-scale
Emido experiments lay the theoretical and practical foundation.
In 1996, American Scholars Basu used senior artificial intelligence technology such as genetic algorithm and classifier system, developed a new one.
American Economic Micro Simulation Model - OSPEN. Once the model has been admitted, it is attached to the economics. Klein believes it is
The best economic model. Aspen Application Artificial Adaptive Subject Simulation Micro Economic Subject Decision Behavior, artificial adaptation subject is not
It can only be solved by intelligent issues, and its expectations and behavior can be adjusted by practical learning. Macroeconomic variables pass
The accumulation of microscopic principal decisions. Aspen prototypes are used to analyze economic cycle fluctuations, and the extension version is used to analyze monetary policy.
The mechanism of action. In 1997, the ASPEN economy transition model was used to analyze Eastern European countries from planned economy to the market economy.
The growth of private enterprises during the transition process. In 1999, the ASPEN-foreign trade model used to analyze exchange rates on enterprises and families.
Difficulties to break through: Innovation of this topic is to develop the main China's economic micro simulation model, and apply this
Model verification and discover the operation of socialist market economy.
(1) Description of the economic system structure, that is, the species, number and scale of the economic main body. Due to technical reasons,
Any economic model has made a full simplification of the real economy. Although the micro simulation model has a rich economic structure,
But there is a certain gap with the real economic structure. For example, in the ASPEN model, the enterprise class has only 4 categories of 9 enterprise mains. We plan
The ASPEN model adopts modular "progressive" to incorporate the idea of the new department into the new department, and refer to the ratio of Bergmann model.
Factor method, dynamically determine the type, number and scale of the economic body.
(2) Economic subject behavior hypothesis and simulation. The behavior of economic themes in microscopic simulation model is based on limited rational hypothesis
The behavior of the economy is differential and evolutionary. Based on the subject calculation economics and traditional microscopic simulation model
Quality difference is that its economic subject has reasoning and learning ability, but it is unrealistic to completely simulate human behavior in computers.
of. We plan to study economic behavior theory and artificial intelligence technology, making the artificial adaptive subject in the model becomes a reality
"Avatar" of the economy.
Third, the research ideas and methods of this topic
China's economic micro simulation model is based on economic theory and statistics, and the economic structure of my country will be reasonably divided into China.
, Application artificial adaptive body technology simulates the reasoning and learning behavior of micro-individual in real economic system, simulating market mechanism
To build an analog environment in the computer. In this environment, a large-scale economic simulation experiment is carried out.
Exploring a wide range of economic phenomena.
(1) In-depth study Based on the subject's calculation economic theory and method, combined with my country's economic reality, research is suitable for my country
Theory based on the body calculation of economic theories and methods. And apply these theories and methods to analyze the theory of socialist market economy and
Socialist Evolution Theory.
(2) Thoughts and methods of intelligent economic micro simulation model represented by Aspen, through the Chinese economy
Analysis of structural and economic subjective behavior, develop China's economic micro-simulation model, and use C on the Windows NT platform
Language implementation software system. In the closed economic model, there are 4 types of economic mains (home main body, corporate main body, bank)
Subjects and government subjects) and three types of markets (product market, labor market and financial market). In the open economic model,
Introduced foreign economic entities and foreign trade markets. By using genetic algorithm and classifier system technology, the economic main study and
The reasoning behavior can be modeled in a very fine particle size.
(3) Combination of macroeconomic research and microscopic economic research. Microeconomic is the foundation of macroeconomics, macroeconomic system
About and influence micro economy. The characteristics of the microscopic simulation model are from microscopic economies to study macroeconomic issues. Learn from
The thinking of the Bergmann model, using structural analysis and proportional factor method analysis of the basic composition of my country's economy;
Under sex hypothesis, analyze and simulate the behavior of economic subjects; application economic countermeasures analysis and simulation of economic subjects
And competition process; application general equilibrium analysis theory coordinate the operation of the economy system; the total amount of macroeconomics passed the micro
The accumulation of economic individual decision making; macroeconomic policy affects the expectations and behaviors of micro-economy individuals, causing
Changes in the total amount of macroeconomic economy.
(4) Applying China's economic microscopic simulation model to verify and discover the basic operation law, analysis and forecast of my country's economy
my country's economic situation, simulation analysis of various economic policies (especially monetary policy and fiscal policy) mechanism, conduction
Mechanism and distribution effect, simulation analysis of external environments (especially entering WTO) on my country's economic impact, simulation analysis of the role of external economic and trade policies, proposing economic policy recommendations for government departments.
6. Quantitative research on the impact of international capital flow on East Asian economy
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
At present, the world economy is developing in global integration, with the world economy integration trade liberalization and capital
The origin is an inevitable trend. The realization of capital liberalization makes the scale of international capital flows. International capital flow is generally
Divided into long-term capital flow and short-term capital flow. Long-term capital flow is divided into direct investment and indirect investment. Direct investment is
Indirect investment is generally called securities investment through capital of international movement of corporate activities. International capital flow
The main purpose is to improve economic benefits and contribute to the overall economic growth. International capital flows
For the capital output country and capital input country, you can get benefits, but if you manage improper short-term international international
Capital flows have devastated to some countries' economies, so international capital flows have great risks. although
There is a lot of reasons for a national financial crisis, but international capital flow is in Mexico, 1994.
The financial crisis, the Southeast Asian financial crisis that occurred in 1997 and the main cause of the Korean financial crisis occurred at the end of 1997
One. Due to the large scale of international capital flow, the economic economy is difficult to adapt. Thailand's situation,
In 1996, the foreign exchange equivalent to GNP10% was flowed, but the GNP20% foreign exchange was out of Thailand in 1997. South Korea from
In 1990, we have gradually relieved the restrictions on international capital flows, and strive to achieve capital liberalization, international capital to South Korea.
The dynamic model is constantly expanding. At the end of 1997, due to the large amount of international capital, Han Yuan plunged, and in November, the financial crisis was eventually led.
The research of this topic has theoretical value and practical significance on the research of international capital flow and risks.
my country will soon join the World Trade Organization (WTO) through several years of hard negotiations. This will make our economy and the world
Economic lack of railway, accelerate the pace of my country's economic and world economic integration, so that my country's economy is developing rapidly. In recent years my country
It has achieved great achievements in implementing reform and opening up. However, joining the WTO means that my country's economy will be more open and gradually
Implement trade liberalization and capital liberalization, which will mean that a large number of international capital flows into our country and gives my country's economic development
More opportunities and opportunities, while bringing more risks. Therefore, relevant international capital of East Asian countries
Strategic regulations and research on international capital flow in East Asian countries; international capital flows on financial crisis in East Asian countries
Research on the prediction model of the foreign exchange crisis; the use of vector self-return model research international capital flow to East Asian economy
Will use international capital to use international capital after my country's accession to the WTO.
Second, this topic research status and breakthrough
Research Status: International Capital Mobile is an indispensable part of the world economy, developed countries and developing countries
Use international capital to develop their own economy. But using international capital is a certain risk, so in order to better utilize
International capital avoids many domestic and foreign scholars to conduct in-depth research. Since the Mexican financial crisis, especially
After the Southeast Asian financial crisis, many economic scholars in foreign countries have induced international capital flow on financial crisis and economy.
The study of qualitative and quantitative combination, and has developed several foreign exchange crisis prediction models. Domestic economic scholars are also
Southeast Asian financial crisis and international capital flow have carried out a lot of research, but the study of qualitative and quantitative combination is not much.
Difficulties to break through: International Capital If you use it correctly, it will promote the economy of a country, but it is also very large.
risks of. The innovation of this topic is the use of Southeast Asia's instance, international capital flows on a national economy
Quantitative analysis, will also prevent and prevent the occurrence of financial crisis, the financial crisis prediction model developed by foreign scholars
Study, then use the actual data of East Asian countries to calculate, and choose some economic variables that can reflect the financial crisis. This will have a certain reference value for the choice of early warning variables in the early warning model of establishing my country's foreign exchange crisis. Through international
Research on capital flows on economic impact in East Asian countries, my country can learn from East Asian countries to use international capital's positive opposite sides.
Experience is conducive to the decision of my country's government's international capital.
The difficulty is to establish my country's foreign exchange crisis warning model and compile computer software.
Third, the research ideas and methods of this topic
International capital flow is an indispensable part of the world economy, developed countries and developing countries use international
Capital development of domestic economy. However, international capital flows have certain risks, so in order to better use international capital.
Sudok the risk, this topic research the following:
1. Divide the relevant policies and regulations of East Asian countries and international capital flow in East Asian countries
Analysis. The international capital flow in East Asian countries is mainly analyzed from the following five aspects: 1 overall capital inflow;
Chinese people direct investment; 3 foreign securities investment; 4 public borrowings; 5 commercial borrowings.
2. Influence of international capital flow on the Korean economy:
(1) There are many reasons for the financial crisis in the financial crisis in East Asian countries in the financial crisis in East Asian countries.
Here mainly studies the impact of international capital flows on the financial crisis in East Asian countries. (2) Foreign exchange crisis prediction models include: outside
Crisis Index prediction method {EICHENGREEN, ROSE AND WYPLOSZ (1995)} and regression analysis prediction method. (3) utilization
Vector self-return model research International Capital Flow on the Impact of Money Supply, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate of East Asia
.
3. Empirical analysis of international capital flow on my country's economic impact: (1) Analysis of my country's use of international capital conditions;
(2) Establish a warning model of my country's foreign exchange crisis; (3) Research on the use of vector self-return model research international capital flow to my country
The impact is analyzed.
7. Empirical study of my country's financial fluctuation and economic fluctuation
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
The modern economy system is manifested as the operation of the physical economy, and it is manifested as a combination of currency and credit - the operation of finance
Economic and financialization has become the basic characteristics of modern economic development. With my country's economic system to socialist market economy
Continuously, the financial system has become more prominent in the status of the national economy. World Bank Economist Lie Wen (Levine, 19
97) Based on summarizing a large number of research results in different countries: "In most cases, financial development or stagnation
The speed and form of economic development have a decisive impact. "This impact can actively promote economic development.
Role, but on the other hand, the instability determined by the intrinsic vulnerability of the financial system may also cause or exacerbate the economy.
Waves, and even the outbreak financial crisis has brought catastrophic damage to the national economy.
Since the reform and opening up, my country's economy has also seen several obvious fluctuations and inflexion while achieving rapid growth.
Swelling, there has been an inflation phenomenon in 1998. Along with this, including money supply, bank loans, interest rates and capital
The financial operations in this market will have a large fluctuation fluctuation. Then my country's financial fluctuations (including money supply
What is the rules of credit, interest rates and stock market fluctuations, such as economic fluctuations and price fluctuations? Financial fluctuation and economy
What influencing relationship between cycle fluctuations and inflation? Can you warwake an early warning economy by monitoring financial operation
Cycle fluctuations and inflation? What is the main reason for financial fluctuations? How to avoid big financial fluctuations, especially letters
Board panic and financial crisis outbreak? What is the development situation of my country's financial fluctuations and economic fluctuations in the next time? this
The topic will carry out these important and challenging issues with the main means of modern economic measurement analysis and boom analysis.
the study. This topic is of great significance to the financial theory and formation mechanism of in-depth exploration of economic cycle fluctuations in my country, but also to develop and implement monetary policies to government departments, and prevent credit crisis or financial crisis outbreaks.
The development of economic fluctuations is predicted, maintaining the continued, stable and healthy development of the national economy.
Second, this topic research status and breakthrough
Research Status: Western countries have already noticed that financial institutions in the early 19th century have noted
use. In addition to explaining the early pure currency factors of economic cycle fluctuations and modern monetaryism schools, around "Bank Credit Wave
Whether it is the root cause of economic cycle fluctuations, "The relationship between credit panickings and financial crisis and economic fluctuations", etc.
Steps form the financial theory of the economic cycle, which involves credit cycle, currency cycle and interest rate period. In which the impact
Large theoretical views with Mingsky's "financial instability hypothesis", Stiglitz and Wisi's "Bank Loan Wishes theory"
, Bangnank and Brand's "Bank Securities Portfolio Holding theory", Woffson's "Economic Cycle Model", etc.
In addition, there is also the economic cycle theory that Greenwood and Stigletz proposed in the financial market.
The research on economic cycle fluctuations has been a history of more than ten years, and it is proposed for the characteristics and formation mechanism of economic fluctuations.
Many different conclusions and ideas, there are no shortcomings about monetary supply, monetary policy and inflation and economic operation.
The results of the study, but in which the qualitative and simple quantitative analysis is mostly analyzed, it is basically an investigation of annual data. lack
Indirect or direct financing fluctuations in bank loans and securities markets and their analysis of economic fluctuations. Especially lacking from the whole
The relationship between financial operation and economic cycle fluctuations using modern economic cycles and economic measurement methods and various gold
The degree of influence of the integration factor.
Difficulties to break through: The main innovation of this topic is to put forward financial waves from the relationship between finance and economic cycle.
Move problems, including credit fluctuations, currency fluctuations, interest rate changes, and stock market fluctuations, and systematically
Investigate and explore the financial causes and formation mechanisms of economic cycle fluctuations during the transition period of my country.
Third, the research ideas and methods of this topic
In research methods, the statistical inspection and dynamic modeling techniques (such as error correction models are used in modern economic measurement analysis).
ECM, structural vector di autoregressive model SVAR, variable parameter state space model, etc.) to adapt to my country's transition period constitution
Reprolled, structural adjustment and other complex economic operations.
1. Determination and analysis of economic cycle fluctuations
On the basis of our multi-year economic monitoring and early warning, we use a boom analysis method to select the appropriate one.
Strong index constitutes a monthly boom index that reflects my country's growth rate cycle change, used to determine and analyze eight
my country's economic cycle fluctuations since the end of the 199
2. Determination of financial fluctuation and analysis of its characteristics
Drawing on the cycle measurement method of the US Economics Research Institute (Nber) and uses the spectral analysis and structural time series models.
Segment, investigation and analysis of the co-growth fluctuation, interest rate changes, and the main characteristics of interest rate changes and stock market fluctuations.
The evolution trend explored the main law of my country's financial fluctuation.
3. Research on the relationship between financial fluctuation and economic cycle fluctuations and price fluctuations
Using the Co-Integration Technology and Grange Causal Relationship in Modern Economic Measurement
Loan and currency supply fluctuations, interest rate changes, and stock market fluctuations and economic boom fluctuations and price index have long-term
Heavy statistical inspections and causal relationships, and investigate each financial variable and boom finger for different time periods
The time difference relationship between the number and the price index (super, synchronous or lag). On this basis, use multivariate time sequences
Parallel Element (Simply referred to as MTV) model, structure vector self-return (SVAR) model portrayed and analyzed financial fluctuation and economic fluctuations
And the impact of the impact of price fluctuations and the degree of influence, combined theoretical analysis, explore the internal work of financial operation and economic fluctuations
Mechanism.
4. Analysis of the cause analysis of financial fluctuation
Exploring the factors, systems, economies of policies, systems, economies of interest rates from currency policies, financial institutional reforms, and macroeconomic operations, and analyze the extent of various factors in combination with economic measurement models. this
In addition, it will also study the factors affecting the volatility of the stock market and its metrics.
5. Monitoring and macroeconomic regulation of financial fluctuation
According to the main influencing factors of financial fluctuations and the historical changes of major financial variables, combined with economic operation
Nowadays, on the basis of statistical analysis, the basic framework for establishing my country's financial fluctuation monitoring, early warning systems and
Improve financial operational macro-control system to prevent large financial fluctuations, especially credit panic and financial crisis
.
8. Regional unbalanced industrial structure upgrade and intensive development strategy of central and western industries
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
This topic draws on the industrial structure upgrade under non-equilibrium economic growth, the structure of the industrial resource reconfiguration
Theory, combined with the regional non-unbalanced development of China's eastern coastal open strategy and the development strategy of the West China
In terms of proposing regional resource reconfiguration methods, and to study sustainable intensification of central industries
Development Strategy. This is not only important theoretical, but also to revitalize the old industrial base in empirical aspects.
The coordinated development of the national economy, improved the quality of economic growth, and also has a very important application value.
Second, this topic research status and breakthrough
Research Status: Western Development Strategy is that my country has promoted sustainable development of national economies after the opening of the coastal open strategy.
A new round of strategic adjustments will certainly form a new regional non-unbalanced development pattern. Industrial structure upgrade is my country
Implementing economic growth is transformed from intensive growth to intensive growth to intensive growth, and to ensure that national economies can continue
The key to healthy development. Under regional non-unbalanced development conditions, reform and development are relatively lagging and have not yet been completely released.
The central economy, especially the central industrial economy will face more serious tests. How to transform in the industrial structure, district
Under the conditions of continuous unbalanced development, the domain economy has achieved coordinated development and intensive growth of the central industry throughout the national economy.
It is a special and urgent need to study solutions in the high-speed growth.
Since full factor productivity is a comprehensive indicator of economic concentration, industrial structure upgrade is guaranteed
The key to economic sustainable intensive growth, and the empirical research on productivity growth and industrial structure upgrade in recent years
More results. Among them, the results of productivity generally use parameters (production functions) methods in research methods.
In some cases, there must be accompanied by the constant income and neutral technical progress, so that the analysis and application of the calculation results
Have certain limitations; in terms of research content, domestic focusing on the growth level and wide productivity growth in research reform and opening up.
The calculation rate of the contribution rate of scratch science and technology has not found the system research economic growth and the new transformation mechanism
Result. The results of the upgrading of industrial structure are mainly focused on the analysis of non-unbalanced industrial structures in the industry, in the area
Under the conditions of domain in unbalanced growth, the research results in regional reconfiguration effects during the transformation of industrial structure are rarely seen.
.
Difficulties to break through: Non-parameter technology is a new quantity of economic research. Using non-parametric production front edge
On the Configuration from the Methods, from the Configuration Efficiency, Technological Progressivity and Unbalanced Development of Industrial and Regional Unbalanced Development
The effects of all-element productivity were homogeneously measured in three aspects of effect. It is the innovation in the method of this topic.
Third, the research ideas and methods of this topic
This topic is intended to combine productivity growth theory and industrial structure theory, and use a set of aggregation
Non-parametric production leading edge technology, theoretical research economic growth mode and industrial structure transition process
Evolution, Technology Progress and Regional Resource Reconfiguration Effects under Heng Growth Condition.
Empirical research is relatively lagging behind the economic foundation and technical strength, in the eastern region, but also face economic development
The middle industrial economy of the West Rise and the Double Challenge of the WTO will be accepted as a key point.
The regional differences and characteristics of the exhibition, economic growth level, the performance of regional division of labor during the upgrading of industrial structure
Trend, and further analyze the coordinated development strategy of industrial and national economies in the central region. The specific research content includes the following aspects:
(1) Collection of industrial statistics in provinces and municipalities and branches in recent years, analyzing into the socialist market economy
Since the time, industries, industries, industrial structures, industrial structure,
The characteristics and evolution trend of economic and technical strength and regional industrial division of labor, and on this basis
The overall growth feature and the evolution trend of industrial structure.
(2) Adopt non-parametric production of non-parametric production based on aggregation discussion, in terms of static production resource configuration efficiency measurement
Based on the basis of research, non-parameter measurement and decomposition theory of total factor productivity growth under dynamic conditions. At the same time, borrow
Relevant results of industrial resource reconfiguration effects of industrial structure upgrade theory, explore transformation and production in economic growth
Non-parameter measurement method of industrial and regional resource reconfiguration effects during the upgrade process of industry structure, strive to establish can be analyzed
Comparative and complete non-parameter theory and method system of economic growth mode transformation and industrial structure upgrade characteristics.
(3) Empirical evolution of production resource allocation, technical progress
Rate and resource reconfiguration effect, from scale economics, production resources can be handled, pure technical efficiency, neutral technology progress,
Non-neutrophic progress, industrial resource reconfiguration effect, and regional resource reconfiguration effects and other surface quantitative analysis economy
Increased characteristics and trends in various regional changes in growth mode and industrial structure upgrade, comparative research
The New Trend of Industrial Growth Mode and Industrial Structure Evolution in the Middle East before and after the development strategy.
(4) According to the characteristics and trends of regional unbalanced economic growth and industrial structure, the central region and
Its key provincial and municipal industries in the division of labor in the whole national economy, the transformation of traditional industries and the development of high-tech industries
, The competitiveness of the leading industry and industrial investment financing strategies under the lack of macroeconomic policy, and the system explores the central industry.
The intensive development strategy and strategy system provides specific and feasible policy advice and development strategies for relevant departments and companies.
9, the application of game theory in economics
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
The in-depth development of economic system reforms makes my country's economic system reform from a single-protected plan economy to a multi-main body
Socialist market economy. Each economic subject has its own benefit goals, strategic behavior, their strategic behavior mutual
Restriction, interaction, so it is very suitable for the model framework of economic game theory. Economic system reform needs to be solved
Information issues, incentive issues are the main problems studied by economic game theory, and there have been many research in these aspects.
Can provide us to learn from. Mechanism design theory, incentive theory, entrustment - proxy theory can be
my country 's Economic System Reform Policy provides important theoretical reference. State-owned enterprise reform is difficult in the reform of economic system, hot
Point problem, the current enterprise mergers, asset restructuring, contractual leases, etc. provide good results for cooperative game theory
Good opportunity. At present, my country is about to join the WTO, in this particular historical background, use game theory methods
my country's tariff policy and international trade strategy have significant practical significance.
Second, the research content and breakthroughs in this topic
This topic will focus on the two aspects of economic game theory.
(1) Macroeconomic game Theory model and international trade game model
Since 1979, my country's economic system has transitioned to the traditional planned economy to the main body
Has a planner-local business-personal multi-sovereign socialist market economy, and is then studying my country's macroeconomic economy
In the theoretical and practice, it is no longer possible to use decision-making models suitable for traditional planning economies.
The macroeconomic model must create a macroeconomic model suitable for my country 's socialist market economy system. We believe that,
Economic Game Theory is a very appropriate tool. In this issue, we focus on the following questions: 1. Application economy
Game Theory Model Analysis study my country's economic growth and inflation and inflation; 2. Application Economic Game Theory Model
Analysis of my country 's tax reform problem;
Problems; 6. Application Economy Game Theory Analysis and Research on my country 's Current Tariff Policy and Trade Strategy Problems.
(2) Entrusted - agent model
Principal - Agency Theory is one of the research results of Western economics in recent years, which can be used to analyze the government and
Enterprises, employers and employees, creditors and debtors, insurance companies and policyholders and solutions, it
It can be described as a game Theory model of information asymmetry between the principal and the agent. This topic will focus on studying such games
On the theoretical and application of models, the main problems and key points, the difficulties are as follows: 1. "Hidden Information" model and "hidden line
"Model mutual fusion problem; 2. Principal-agent model of operability;
Establishment and application problem of proxy model.
Difficulties to be breakthrough: in the macroeconomic game theory model and international trade game model, the effective function of economic main body
The description of the construction and behavioral strategy is the difficult point of this class. In the delegate-agent model, how to work in public information
Under the structure, establish an operational commission-agent model, and truly use it to practice the practice of my country's economic system reform, it is this
The key points and difficulties of topics research.
Third, the research ideas and methods of this topic
1. The current popular economic growth, inflation, monetary finance, economic cycle, etc., most
For the optimal decision model of only one economic entity. This topic will explore the current economic entities in my country (government,
Based on how the benefits of individuals, enterprises, the relationship between strategic behavior, consider how to put the currently popular single-subject
The model is transformed to make it a multi-body game model. 2. After completing the construction of the macroeconomic game model, pass
Solving the Solution of the Bureau's Chinese Strategy Reaction, Nash Balanced Solvance, Discuss the theory of the game theory
The result is different from the traditional macroeconomic theory, and it is possible to propose reasonable policy recommendations. 3, put the commission - agent
The model is incorporated into an incomplete information dynamic model, derived its separation equalization, mixing equilibrium conditions, and use multi-stage game theory model
Method, gradually eliminate uncertainty of information parameters, thereby derived both "hidden information" and resolving hidden actions.
"Operable delegate - agent model. 4. Estimating risk avoidance in the utility function of the principal with metrology economics
The parameters and effort cost coefficients, thereby achieving the docking of the metrological economic method and the game theory. 5, put the public ownership theory framework
Combined with the existing delegation-agent model, create a commission-proxy model suitable for public ownership conditions to achieve applicable
The Purpose of my country 's Economic System Reform Practice.
10. Research on microstructure and coordination development of securities market and derivative market
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
In the process of market economic reform and market development in my country, my country's financial system is in absorbing the economic development of the world market.
The continuous reform is carried out in the process of beneficial results in the process. Financial instruments are constantly increasing, the financial services are constantly
Expanded, new financial markets, such as stock markets, bond markets, futures markets from nothing, and amazing development
Speed shows the charm of financial deepening reform. 20 years ago, very unfamiliar financial instruments, now become familiar to the public
Investment channels. The capital market, especially the securities market, playing a pivotal role in China's economic life. Futures market
Gradually improve, and stock index futures, stock options are also active. Innovation and derivatives of financial derivatives
The gradual development has made important theoretical significance and practical significance for the research of derivatives.
According to the status quo of my country's securities market, in-depth theoretical research and empirical analysis on the microstructure of the securities market
, Have certain guiding significance for the development of my country's securities market. At the same time, the microstructure of the derivative market conducts a first study
Develop important practical significance.
Second, this topic research content and breakthrough difficulties in general financial markets include price discovery, liquidation mechanism, information transmission mechanism, etc. Securities market micro
Theoretical research of the viewing structure, there are many theoretical articles. Although the application of microstructure theory is relatively wide, micro
Empirical structure of structural theory is still unparalleled, especially for derivative markets, mainly the development of tools.
risk control. Although Black, Merton and Scholes et al. Are far more than the contribution to the theory of choice.
The category of derivative tool pricing, but China's research is still in the digestive stage, and often extremes, or high
The deep theoretical method is explained, although applicable and academic research but lack of practical value; either a relatively simple discussion
There is a lack of theoretical basis, there is a lack of scientific and strictness to cause misleading. Therefore, you need to find theory and practice
Effectively combined, develop innovative research.
Difficulties in proposed to break through: innovation and pricing of national debt derivatives; risk analysis and management of financial derivatives;
Theoretical Analysis of the Market Price Generation Mechanism; the Interaction between the Securities Market and the Derivative Market.
Third, the research ideas and methods of this topic
This study is based on the pricing model of financial theory and financial assets.
Pricing models and methods for basic risk assets and derivatives and their price generation mechanism. Utilizing quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis
The combination of the method, through comparison with the derivative market in developed countries, research the interaction between the securities market and the derivative market
And explore the development of China's derivative market.
11. Structures and time limit structures and research on economic contributions
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
Treasury bonds are important means for the government to raise funds to mitigate fiscal pressures and implement macroeconomic regulation and modern financial management.
However, whether the scale of the national debt has an objective boundaries and optimized period structure, how to use interest rate period structure
The contribution to economic growth has been the contribution of economic growth in government bond management and government bonds, has always been an important part of fiscal research. National bond
Moderate scale has a significant interaction mechanism in economic growth, and moderate national debt size is obvious to economic development.
Pushing effect. Therefore, it is important for national debt size and time limit structure and the research on economic contribution research.
significance.
Second, this topic research status and breakthrough
Regarding the scale of the national debt and the scale structure and the economic contribution research, there are many research results in China. Most concentrated in the country
Comparison of debt size and real-scale scale; interest rate period structure and government bond management are mainly qualitative studies. Use number
School model on national debt issuance scale and cost analysis, interest rate period structure and government bond management, economic growth and national debt size analysis
Not very common now. Therefore, the main contents of this study include: national bond issuance scale and cost analysis, interest rate period structure and
Domestic Bond Management, Economic Growth and Summary Analysis.
This topic research must break through the difficulty (1) Optimization of national debt size and time limit structure; (2) Economic growth and country
Analysis of debt size
Third, the research ideas and methods of this topic
The research on this topic is guided by financial theory, using mathematical model to study the moderate scale and time limit structure of government bonds.
Using statistical methods to study economic growth and national debt size; use quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis combined with research country
The management countermeasures of the debt. Trying to give the scale and time-limited structure relationship of China's national conditions, and contribution to economic development
Measurement provides a basis for national development of fiscal policies.
12. Correlation between financial system arrangements, corporate governance structure and financial crisis
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
In July 1997, the financial crisis broke out in Asia. In 18 months, the Asian economic miracle disappeared overnight.
. After the Asian financial crisis, the scholars have fallen deeply in the Asian economic development model, economic system arrangement.
test. In the exploration of the root cause of the crisis, most of the scholars focus on the analysis of the macro level, which is on the government's macro
The improvement of the microstructure problem caused by the institutional arrangement has not given sufficient attention.
How to combine the macro level with the microscopic level, the application system arrangement is conducted on the organizational structure.
Principle, the introduction of financial system arrangements with the relationship between corporate governance structure into the financial crisis problem, deeply explore the root cause of the financial crisis, seeking to get rid of the effective way to get rid of the financial crisis, which is undoubtedly the most commonly facing Asian countries.
On Value and Practical Significance Project.
This topic research will provide new paradigms on the financial crisis research, on the one hand, the company's governance structure
Provide new ideas and methods, and will also reform financial institutions in China and other government governments, corporate governance knots
Structure reform provides a certain policy basis.
Second, the main content of this topic research is expected to break through
This topic research scope involves financial theory, corporate theory (contract theory, proxy theory, ownership structure theory
, Information asymmetric theory), related content of the company's financial theory (capital structure theory).
1. Specific research contents include: (1) In theoretical research of developed countries such as Europe and America and the United States and the United States, the financial system arrangements and corporate governance structures
On the basis of the relationship, China 's deep reflection of the intrinsic contradiction between the financial system arrangements in the construction of corporate governance structure. (2)
Based on the efficiency of the company's governance structure under the arrangement of Britain, German-Japanese financial system, theoretical
In the construction of the company's governance structure, the necessity of reforming the reform of financial system is carried out. (3) Investigate the Asian financial crisis
Former Japanese financial system arrangements, based on the negative impact of their corporate governance structure, the financial system of Japanese malformation is empirically studied.
Arrangement and financial bubbles caused by corporate governance structures. (4) Empirical study China's financial system arrangement for the company's governance structure
Very influence, and expounds its potential financial crisis factors. (5) Theoretical elaboration and empirical analysis structure, tissue type, protected type
Financial system arrangements are replacing the government's macroeconomic policies and interest-oriented macroeconomic and resource allocation
Degree arrangement.
2, the difficulty of breakthrough: theoretical elaboration and empirical analysis structure, organizational type, protected financial system arrangement
Replacing the government's macroeconomic policy and the guided financial system arrangements.
Third, the method used by this research institute, technology route
This topic study is generally intended to combine normative research and empirical research, including: theoretical elaboration
, Data collection, finishing, model establishment, statistical analysis, result check.
It is intended to start from three aspects on the research route: 1, compare the company's governance under the arrangement of Britain and Germany-scale financial system
Efficiency of the structure; 2. Empirical study of financial institutional arrangements for Japanese malformations and financial bubbles caused by corporate governance structures;
Empirical studying the negative impact of China 's financial system on the company' s governance structure and its potential financial crisis factors.
13. Research on the interaction mechanism of capital structural policies and dividend distribution policies
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
The research on capital structure and dividend allocation has always been the mainstream issues and hotspots of the company's financial theory research. from
From the Nobi Award, Miller and Frank Modigliani in a series of strict assumptions, respectively
In the 58th, in 1961, the capital structure was put forward, and the dividends have not been in theory, many scholars have been carried out around MM's assumptions.
Extensive research, the use of different theories to question MM theorems and further develop capital structure theory and stocks
The theory of policies. However, there are a research history of people's capital structure and dividend allocation, we find that scholars or
Independently use the capital structure as the research subject, or independently assigned to the research subject, no unification of both
Correlation research under a concept framework. This topic tries to break through the capital structure, dividend allocation
The traditional research framework, use the company's governance structure theory, and unify the capital structure and dividend allocation into the corporate finance
In the policy, the system studies the interaction mechanism of capital structural policies and dividend distribution policies, explores capital structure policies, dividends
The development basis, influencing factors and interaction relationships of allocation policies, further improve the company's financial theory.
In corporate management practices, capital structural policies and dividend distribution policies are the core, capital structure of corporate financial policies.
Policies reflect the composition ratio of corporate capital sources and capital providers' influence on enterprises, and dividend policy reflects enterprises.
The allocation method of business surplus and the economic interests between shareholders, creditors, managers, national and enterprises. How to develop a reasonable capital structure policy and dividend distribution policy, adapt to the development of the company, and meet the right to relevant interest
Yes, it is a tricky practice problem facing corporate finance managers. Special, in my country's capital market is not perfect
Under the conditions, how to provide capital structural policies and dividend policies for enterprise management, standardize corporate financial behavior, promote
Enterprise health, order development, is of great practical significance.
Second, the main content of this topic research is expected to break through
The main contents include: 1. On the basis of comparing the ripening of the Western mature capital structure and dividend allocation,
The theory of ownership structure in the company's theory, the theory of proxy theory, in depth, research capital structural policies and dividend distribution policies
According to the basis, specific research on corporate capital structural policies and dividend distribution policies, compare different corporate governance structural arrangements
Under the influence of different stakeholders such as shareholders, creditors, managers on enterprise capital structural policies and dividend distribution policies,
Analyze independent factors and common factors affecting capital structural policies and dividend distribution policies, explore capital structural policies and dividends
The mechanism of allocating policy interactions. 2, from the perspective of enterprise cash flow, out of balance, research capital structure policy
, Dividend allocation policies and corporate cash inflow, analysis of capital structure policies and dividends
The relationship between the mutual constraints of policy during cash flow flow. The capital structure policy reflects the amount of corporate cash inflow and its
Composition ratio, dividend distribution policy reflects corporate cash flow and its way, corporate manager as a management cash flow
The main body shoulder the mission of coordinating the conflict between capital structural policies and dividend distribution policies. 3, according to the above theory
In the basis of comprehensive analysis of my country's capital market and investor behavioral characteristics, listed companies are research objects and establishment of capital.
Economic measuring model of this structure policy, dividend distribution policy and its relationship, system research capital structure policy and dividend
The interaction mechanism between policies provides theoretical basis and practice guidance for the formulation of financial policies in my country.
Difficulties are expected to break through: 1. Distinguish independent factors and common factors affecting capital structural policies, dividend distribution policies;
2. Establish a financial metering model with comprehensive reflection of capital structural policies, dividend distribution policies and its relationships.
Third, the method used by this research institute, technology route
This topic is proposed to adopt the combination of normative analysis and empirical analysis, and the method of combining field analysis and empirical analysis.
The operational practice of the national listed company has been studying objects, drawing on new methods of financial theory research at home and abroad, such as partial correlation
Analysis, multi-variance analysis, logic analysis, weight analysis, coincidence, non-parameter estimation, systematic research capital knot
Interaction mechanism between policies and dividend distribution policies.
14. Research on financial deepening problems in economic development
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
As early as the end of the 19th century, the Swedish economist Viksell pointed out that monetary finance is active for actual economic activities.
It has a significant, substantive effect. This is caused by later economists to financial and economic development and financial and economic growth.
An important reason for the development system research of long relations. Miltar, Hayek, Xiong Pert, Toben and others are financial
Economists who have given special attention. Focus on the modern economy, save the transformation of investment, conversion process and
Transformation speed, that is, financial aspects have become increasingly shown. 1973 US economist McKinnon and
"Financial Press" and "Financial Deepening" theory of SHOW have an important role in financial in the economy in the economy.
Made more clear, acknowledged answer. In recent years, the practice of international economic development has also confirmed, and financial is added.
The process of quick resource reuse has become the core of the economy and even the core of the economy.
China is in the transition period in the economic system, the development of financial markets is very imperfect, but the importance of finance is fully
appear. It is particularly important for China's developing countries that it is necessary to make full use of financial development to promote economic development.
Avoid financial suppression economies, but also to grasp the financial development process to avoid financial transition to cause economic foam and inflation. In theory, this is the issue of economic development and financial deepening interaction.
Second, this topic research status and breakthrough
Although theoretically awareness is very distinct, it can actually be far from the point where it is actually operating. Overall
Say, foreign research started earlier, and reflected the frontier achievements in this field in the research model research,
It can feel the "separation" tendency to study economic research and financial theory, which gives a specific economic condition for developing countries.
More specifically and more guided research is still very short. McKinnon and Xiao's financial development model is the city of freedom
Under field conditions, economic growth and financial development, mutual restriction, mutual promotion of dialectical relationship, for imperfect business
The product market and the financial market, how the relationship between the two is still a problem.
Research on financial development in economic development, focusing on financial development (including: financial commodity expansion, finance
The development of institutional development and financial markets on the promotion and adaptability of economic development. Especially revealing financial development and economy
The causal relationship of development, where the interest rate of money market, financial asset yields and social capital yields, and
The problem of warning of financial pressures and finance transitions should be used as a key or breakthrough.
Third, the method used by this research institute, technology route
Standing in an economic development perspective is clearly a systematic project. That is, economic growth theory support, more
Need financial theory support. Introducing financial growth or development research, and leading financial research to the economy
Development is equally important. In terms of specific research, the metering research of the system is not allowed.
Less means.
It is also necessary to specialize in specific situations under specific historical conditions of China, from the perspective of institutional changes or evolutionary perspectives.
Development and Financial Development.
15. Research on economic policy issues facing state-owned enterprises
First, theoretical significance and practical significance
China's state-owned enterprise reform has entered the stage of attacking, and its economic policy issues are increasingly becoming an academic community.
The focus of note. As a transitional economy, how to develop the specificity of the government in the reform of state-owned enterprises, how to
The effectiveness of the effectiveness of the microscopic conduction mechanism, reflecting my country's economic policy restrictions on state-owned enterprises in recent years
Impact, seeking national-owned enterprises reform economic policy pathway, undoubtedly the theoretical significance and realization in China's economic reform
Important topics of praise.
Second, this topic research status and breakthrough
1. The main content of this topic research
The main contents of this topic include: First, it will mainly reflect on the economic policy bottleneck in the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Second, analyze the internal birth of the policy bottleneck in policy target constraint softening, policy tool failure and policy evidence
Sex; third, in terms of information disclosure, market incompetence, and policies, the external observance of policy bottlenecks,
Seeking policy guidelines for policy effective, resource allocation, and expected path stability; fourth, empirical research three-year tax
The impact of the policy, monetary policy on the reform of my country's state-owned enterprises, puts forward the effective tax politician that is conducive to the reform of state-owned enterprises
Policy and monetary policy and its policy portfolio model.
2. Expected breakthrough challenge: First, the policy target is constrained softening, policy tool failure and policy evolving
The endorsement of policy bottlenecks; secondly, in terms of information on information disconnect, market imperfect and policy
Policy bottlenecks, seeking policy effective, resource allocation, and policy guidelines for expected pathways.
Third, the method used by this research institute, technology route
This topic will be the effectiveness of the micro-conducting mechanism of economic policies, reflect on my country's economic policy in China
The Restrictiveness and Influence of Enterprise Reform, and seeking the economic policy pathway of state - owned enterprises. Specific research method: (1) number
