Ye Ren
When the Supreme People's Court announced the provisions of the "Supreme People's Court on the People's Court on the People's Court" and announced that this provision will be implemented on January 1, 2005, it does not necessarily expect this regulation. What kind of giant waves will be set off in the property market.
This new judicial explanation regulates: the living houses necessary for the active people and their respective life, the people's court can be seized, but must not be auctioned, sold or competed. The house is naturally unforgettable as the residence that the house must live in the actor and the support of their families. The biggest impact brought about the property market is that the bank's disposal of the mortgage is suspended! Banks can't auctions the house of arrears who only have a house.
This gives the bank a serious problem: housing mortgage loans still do not do? If you continue to make a housing loan, the loan will stop the payment of the payment of the bank to dispose?
The conclusion that the bank has drawn carefully: housing mortgage is still available, but you must use two sets of houses to loan, and can only loard a house money. Bank does this is to avoid the risk of not repayment from the date of launch. With two house banks are naturally not afraid, this means that when the lender stops repayment, the bank has the right to auction a house for debt. Most banks in Zhejiang Province have been implemented in such a new way for housing loans. Bank implements such housing loan policies, there is no doubt that many small and medium-sized corporate financing have become difficult, and the SMEs will be an impact. It will also reduce the cash flow in society, and it will also indirectly increase the difficulty of financing of buyers.
Although this policy will have a certain impact on the property market, but the bigger impact is still behind. This question is: Mortgage loan is not loracked?
The current property market can be said to be a bank that is supported. For example, in the big city in Hangzhou, buy a house is often 20% down payment, and other 80% can borrow from the bank. This means that the value of one million houses will take 200,000 to the hand. This makes those who have no strength to buy, live with more than one million luxury homes, also borrowed this Dongfeng and easily bought a house. This also allows those speculative people to roll the snowballs with the money. It can be said that there is no bank funding to intervene on the property market, and the property market is completely paralyzed overnight. Now the current situation of the property market is: whether developers, or buyers, they are speculating for a lot of bank funds, and free funds can be said to be less poor. In 2004, the country's macro-regulation is to trip the bank to flow into real estate providers, and the implementation of the new judicial explanation will accommodate banks into the money bag in the buyers.
For the bank, the risk of mortgage loans with housing loans is actually the same. The two are totally a matter. A person without a house can be used to buy a period or second-hand room from bank loans, and then stop repayment. Banks will not be a little way. Because the buyers only have a housing that can be used to live, according to the new interpretation of the high-level judicial new, banks cannot auction the unique housing of debt. Since banks can't be auction, they can only seal. So, how about the buyers who stop repayment? He still can continue to live in this unique housing. Bank's money is so easy!
This kind of thing, as long as there is a first person to do so, and if it is not severely punished, then the buyer of the whole world will have effectively, the result is only: all mortgage loan buyers have stopped still The bank has formed the largest rotten account in history.
Unfortunately, this happened! According to an article on January 20th, China News: "According to industry insiders, some people live in the second-hand housing purchased by the loan, transfer the original house to the relative name, and rent it out, and no longer Second-hand housing repayment. Banks have no way under the restriction of new policies in court. "That is to say, there have been a vulnerability of this policy to stop repayment! As long as there is a person to do so, there is no punishment, the world is dangerous! Why do you say that the world is in danger? Because now the total amount of banks mortgage is at least a few trillions. It has been reported that as of November 17, 2004, the balance of the individual housing loan of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has exceeded 400 billion yuan, reaching 402,711 billion yuan. If these trillions are not returned, what is the situation that the bank and financial system for thousands of China?
In order to prevent this increasingly obvious housing loan risk, banks will have to consider stopping mortgage loans to housing. In other words, it is not only a loan to sell the second-hand housing, but also even the mortgage loan of the new property is also stopped.
I now put forward such a point of view, many people must think that I am talking nonsense. They will say: How is this possible? Bank stops mortgage loans, who can buy such a high price house? Open business is not to jump? Is it necessary to collapse? Can the Government agree?
Their questioning is certainly very reasonable. This is the two difficulties faced by the bank. The bank stops mortgage loans, the property market will collapse, the houses developed by the developer can not sell, and will also form a huge rotten account in the bank.
However, if the bank does not stop mortgage loans, the bank's risk is very large. - I am afraid that this money is loan to go out, and it will not be returned. From this perspective, the bank stopping mortgage is possible. This is not an imagination, but a real problem. In Ningbo, Zhejiang Province and Wenzhou, banks have stopped mortgage loans for houses below 70 square meters. The volume of the house after 70 square meters later is zero. (Details can be queried by Wenzhou Business Daily and Ningbo Evening News: "The second-hand housing mortgage loan threshold has improved Wenzhou Business Daily" "pumped to the limit room, but no mortgage - Bank stopped lending within 70 square meters of housing
Once the bank has fully stopped all kinds of housing mortgage loans, the avalanches in the property market are inevitable.
Totally, under this new judicial explanation, the bank is in a difficult situation: if you continue to lend, I am afraid to collect money. If you stop your loan, the property market will collapse, which will also form a huge rotten account.
What is the prospect of getting closer to us? Only this judicial new explanation is re-considered.
The ancient language cloud: Milist is invisible, and the wise is not cute. When the entire property market has begun to be avalanche, when the housing mortgage loan of the world has begun to stop repayment, it is too late to consider this problem.
Perhaps, there are two ways to prevent this crisis. First, severely punish those who stop repayment within the scope of the law, lepons from the back of the people. When the first person stops repayment and confiscation, then, the day, the whole system crashes is not far away. The second is to reinterpretize or improve this judicial explanation. Obviously, such judicial explanation is difficult to travel in China. The current China has not formed a credit awareness. Everyone's psychological situation can accounted for the country's cheap, and then, will not consider the interests of the entire country. In such a form, if the arrears are not effective, they will be very fast, and they will form an economic crisis.
China's stock market history has proven that the original policy mistake (mainly equity disseminated) buried a film for the complete destruction of the stock market. The same history seems to have occurred in China's property market: if it does not take measures, this judicial interpretation will also profoundly affect the entire property market.
