Why don't you need us in the future?
In the 21st century, our powerful three technologies: robots, genetic engineering and nanotechnology are making human beings into endangered species.
Author: Bill Joy since the moment I engaged in technology creation, I will focus on the ethical issues it. But until 1998 I realized how much dangerous in the 21st century. This is not beginning with I encountered Lei-Kuzville, a great inventor, invented the reading machine for blind, and many incredible machines.
I and Thunder are speakers in the distance communication conference held in Gilder, Georgia. After the meeting, I met him in the hotel bar. At that time, I was chatting with John Searle, a philosopher who studied awareness in the University of California, sat together. Thunder is walking with us. Until today, the content we talk about still plagued me.
I didn't hear the speech of Thunder and the later discussion, and John didn't, they immediately regained the unexpected topic. Thunder believes that the speed of technology will be faster and faster, we will become a robot or a combination of a combination of robots, or something like it. But John is not, he thinks this is impossible, because the robot will not conscious.
Before I heard such a conversation, I always thought that the robot with feeling only exists in the science fiction. But now, from some people worthy of respect, I know that those robots are not far from us. I am surprised, especially I know that Ray has proven that I have the ability to draw and create this future. I have now known new technology, such as genetic engineering, nanotechnology, can help us re-transform this world, but the status quo of intelligent robots makes me surprised.
The technical breakthrough such as this will make people tired. We can hear news about scientific and technological progress almost every day. But this time is not a general prophecy. In the hotel's bar, I gave me a premium of the new book "The Age of Intelligent Machine". He hooked out in this book, the Utopia in his mind: through robotics, human beings will get almost eternal life. When reading this book, my heart is getting more and more strong. I dare to affirm that thunder is estimated the risk of robotics, underestimating the possibility of serious consequences of this technology.
I found the following anti-Utinian scene to let yourself sleep hard:
New Luudian challenge
First let us assume that computer scientists have developed smart machines than humans. In this case, all the work will be completed by a large organizer system, and humans no longer need to work. We may make a decision to make a decision autonomously, or people still reserve control of the machine. Both of these situations may occur.
If the machine is running independently, this result cannot be speculated because we can't guess how the machine is concluded. We will find that human destiny will be in the machine. Perhaps someone will argue that human beings will not be stupid to hand over all power to the machine, but we are talking about 即 即 不 人 人 度 度 度 机 机, 器, 机 不 即 即 给 即 即 给 即 即 给 给 即What we talk about is that humans are easy to fall into the self-determination of the machine, thus relying on the survival of the machine. As the society and its face have become more complex, and the intelligence of the machine is getting higher and higher, humans will make the machine make an increasingly important decision, not other, only the machine's decision is more than humans. . In the end, the decision of maintaining the normal operation of the system is so complicated, and human intelligence is no longer responsive, but the machine can be pleasant. People cannot simply dialed the power of the machine, because we rely on the machine, shut down without suicide!
On the other hand, human beings keep control to the machine. For example, in the case mentioned above, a quite part of the person still controls the private machine, like a car, a personal computer. However, it is a very small number of elite classes that control the large machine system, just like today society. However, there is two points compared to the present: due to scientific and technological progress, the elite class has greater control over the masses, and because human labor is no longer necessary, the masses have also become useless and excessive burden on the entire system. . If the elite class is cold and ruthless, they may simply eliminate these people. If they are kind, they may use propaganda or other spiritual, biological techniques to reduce the population birth rate until these people are extinct, thus completely owned this world. There is another possibility that if the elite is the liberal of the intestine, they may play the role of the shepherd to take care of the rest of the human. They will meet the needs of each person, let the children grow up healthily, everyone will be busy with their hobby, anyone who is dissatisfied with this will be "special care" to correct their "problem". Of course, life is so meaningful, and people have to accept organisms or spiritual transformations to remove their desire to power, or make it "sublimation" into a harmless hobby. These transformed humans may be happy in such a society, but they are definitely not free, they are like animals raised in the zoo. Until you read this page, you found that the author of the above content is the famous "university bomb". I am not a Cousinsky's defender. In his 17-year terrorist activities, the bomb took three people's lives and fried many people. One of the bombs made my friend David-Gelernter seriously injured, David is the most genius and imagination of this era. Just like my colleagues, I feel that I am very likely to be the next attack target of "University Bomb".
Casinsky's behavior is murder and stupid crimes, no doubt, in my eyes, he is a Luke, but it is difficult to refute his point of view. Although it is difficult, I still have some truth in the discussion, I feel responsible for facing it.
We don't want Kasksky's anti-Untabei to become a reality, but a well-known question on design and technology applications can be described in "Murphy Law": "Will be wrong, will eventually go wrong" (in fact, it should It is called the law of Phirant, this error itself proves that Figer is really unimpedy!) Excessive use of antibiotics has caused the most serious problem: antibiotic resistance crisis and increasing hazard bacteria. What is similar to it has happened: I want to use DDT to kill mosquitoes to spread the problem of the disease, which produces DDT resistance, and its larvae has also obtained drug resistance genes for a variety of drugs.
Surprisingly, the fact that the role and feedback between each part of the system are too complex, and the change in the system can cause a chain reaction, it is difficult to expect the final result. Especially after considering human activities, the situation is more complicated.
I have begun to introduce friends to the "Time of Smart Machines" to the reference to Coususky speech; I handed them to Coususky's book, let them read these citations, then observe who they find who is written The reaction at these words. At this time, I found Hans-Moravik's "Robot: Top to extraordinary thinking". Moravik is a leader in the field of robots. He created and leads the world's largest robot research program in Carnegie-Mellon University and leads the world's largest robot research program. This book gave me more materials to test my friends. Surprisingly, most materials support Coususky's argument. For example: "Recent (early 2000 Early)" chapter.
Biological species have no opportunities for almost no survival when encountering advantageous competitors. More than 10 million years ago, South and North was separated by the Panama Fragrance. South America is like today's Australia, and there is a bag of mammals, kangaroo, bag deer and bag, and more. When it is connected to the Fragrand of South America, the northern metabolic and nervous system only accounts for thousands of years in the nervous system for thousands of years. In the fully free-competitive market, the dominant robot will affect the survival of human beings like the northern American biological species (also as if human beings have affected countless other species). The robotic industry will launch fierce competition for raw materials, energy and space, which is the robot's economy more than human. Humans will be excluded from the living space because they cannot afford their life.
It may be possible to leave a breath in human beings because we are not living in a fully competitive market. The Government will enforce some non-market policies, especially taxes. Through this wise move, the government's mandatory measures can support human beings based on the basis of robotic labor results in a higher survival state. This situation may last for a long time.
This is really a vivid textbook for anti-Untibia and will make Morovick feel uncomfortable. He continued to discuss our mainly in the 21st century: "Develop laws to standardize the behavior of the robot and ensure that it continues to cooperate." And describe how serious hazards that "once human transformation into unconstrained super intelligent robots" will have. In Morovick's point of view, the robot will eventually overcome us, and human beings have no doubts will be extinct.
I decided to talk to my friend Danny Hillis at this moment. Danny is one of the founders of the Thinking Machines producing parallel supercomputers. I am not just the chief scientist of the solar micro system company, and it is also a computer designer. Danny's knowledge in information and physical science exceeds everyone I know. Danny is still a future student who is worthy of attention, he has been thinking about the future, and founding Long Now Foundation four years ago, he also created a clock for the past 1000 years, trying to draw a humanity Historically worth a commemorative time period (see "Test of Time" "Time Test", "Connection" Aug 2003, 2003).
So I flew to Los Angeles and Danny couple got lunch. I have all, put forward some people who have plagued my thoughts to think about it. Danny's reply is the future situation of the Kutzville's envisage: human and robots will be coming soon. This answer makes me surprised. All in all, he believes that this change will gradually become a reality, and people will happen sooner or later.
But I don't think I am not fully surprised. I heard from Dannya to the reference to the content in Kutuville. He said: "Although I love my body like someone else, if I can rely on Silicon-based meat to live 200 years old, I will not hesitate to give up it." It seems that Danny has changed the process and followed. The danger has listened to the heavens, but I can't.
When talking to the things about Kutzville, Csinsky and Molovik, I suddenly thought of a Frank Herbert (Frank Herbert) of Frank Herbert 20 years ago "White Plane "" (The White Plague). Among the novels, one molecular biologist caught crazy because of his parents and children. In order to retaliate, he made and spread a newly developed highly contagious plaque, uses it to kill a lot of choice (we should celebrate Cousinsky just a mathematician, not molecular biologist ). I still remember the Boger (BERG) in "Star Trek), a half-manic organopraft with destruction tendency. Disasters like Bigners are the plots that often appear in science fiction. This is why I am more concerned about the reasons why such robots anti-Utinbang earlier. Why do other people do not exercise a dessert for this dreamless future?
Part of this question is that we have a narrower inferiority: like novelty, you can get started with things, and you can accept them without oneself. It is accustomed to the new discovery of science and technology to hear every day. We are already in such a stage: the most striking technology in the 21st century: robots, genetic engineering and nanotechnology, it has been surfaced with a significant great power before it comes, especially robots, and transformed from gene engineering. With the same body, nanotechnology has the same factor that enlarges danger: they can copy themselves. A bomb can only sound, but a robot can copy itself into a lot, soon it will lose control. In the past 25 years, most of my work is a computer network research. Sending and receiving information on the network can cause out-of control replication. Although the out-of-control replication on a computer or computer network is annoying, but in worst cases, it is just that a single computer does not work or block network communication, and network services. And the out-of-control self-replication of technologies that update technology products will cause more dangerous: they will damage the physical world.
These technologies have put forward countless good commitments: Kutzville's unexpected prospects in their robotic dreams have soon continuous advancement, and the genetic engineering will soon provide most of the disease that cannot be healed quickly. Treatment method; nanotechnology and nano medical treatment can cure more diseases. All of this will greatly improve our average life and quality of life. However, for any of the techniques, it is continuously small, and individuals will accumulate into a huge power of power and their huge dangers.
What is the difference between the 20th century? Of course, the technology of large-scale anti-injury weapons (WMD) nuclear weapons, biological weapons, and chemical weapons is very powerful, and these weapons have great threats. But constructing nuclear weapons requires at least time, rare, and in fact impossible raw materials and highly confidential information; the development of biological weapons and chemical weapons also requires large-scale activities.
The 21st century technology-gene engineering, nanotechnology and robot (GNR) power is so huge, they will give birth to new accidents and abuse. The most dangerous thing is that these accidents and abuse will first be able to enter the capabilities of individuals or small organizations. They don't need huge development capabilities or rare raw materials, as long as there is related technical knowledge, they can use them.
Therefore, we are not light from the threat of large-scale anti-weapons, as well as a large-scale killing force generated by technical knowledge, and their self-replication ability has greatly expanded their killing.
I think the following is definitely not a dramatic: our human beings face the highest possibleity of extreme evil, this evil produces large-scale killing weapons that are supported by the national strength to the extreme individuals of terror.
Nothing pointing out that we will face such problems.
My life is driven by my heart, and find answers. When I was 3 years old, I have started reading, so my father sent me into elementary school. I could only sit on the legs at the time of listening to him. I have already started school very early. Then I will be jumped, I am going to study in the book in a letter. I have proposed a lot of problems that make big people to solve.
As a teenager for a 10-year-old, I am very fascinated by technology technology. I hope to be a "ham" (amateur radio enthusiast), but I don't have money to buy equipment. "Ham" is the Internet in that era, very pleased to be addictive, and people are hosted. No matter if there is money, my mother immediately said that it is resolutely opposed, I can't be a "ham", because I am already lonely!
At that time I didn't have a close friend, but I was intoxicated in my rich imagination. I am a mid-school era, I found many great science fiction novels. In particular, I still remember Heinleain's "Have SpaceSuit with Travel" (I, I, Robot "and the Three Principles of Aiximov. I was deeply fascinated by the description of space travel, I want to have a telescope to see the stars in the sky; because I have no money to buy or make a, I will borrow a book from the library about how to make a telescope. , Comfort yourself through reading. I am free to fly in the space. My parents will go out to bow in the evening. And our children stay at home alone. Thursday night is the time "Star Trek", the first "Star Trek", which is Geron Rodenberry, leaving me a deep image. I started to accept such a concept: human beings will carry out western heroic adventures in space in space. A few centuries after Raroton, have important moral value: Comply with the "First Code", do not interfere with the development of any less technical level. These are an attractive to me; it is an elite human, not a robot to dominate our future. Raroton Bari dreams become an indispensable part of my life.
The most popular TV science fiction set "Star Sky Adventure", which all the expeditions of space of the Space Country must abide by a "prime directive", that is. Not investigated and unsatisfied before the space for space,
Do not interfere with the nature development of races with lower cultural levels.
At high school, my mathematics was quite good, and when I was studying in the University of Michigan, I have learned the graduate higher mathematics courses. Solving mathematical problems is an exciting challenge, but when I found a computer, I think it is more attracting me: You can put the program to solve a problem into a machine, then this machine Soon you can judge whether your solution is correct. The answer to the computer is very clear: correct or wrong, true or false. Is my idea correct? The machine will tell you everything. This is really attractive!
I am very fortunate to get a job programmed on an early supercomputer. I found that large computers have incredible power in digital simulations for complex design. When I got a graduate student at the University of California in the mid-1970s, I started to wait for a long time in the machine room, often all night. I found a new world in the computer, I solved various problems in the computer, and write the code that is considered to be difficult.
In] Owen Stone, a bikuderry, "pain and ecstasy", whichever Mi Kai Lang, "pain and ecstasy" ", Cut the giant stone according to the guidance of the soul. In my instant, the software in the computer is also completed. I used to describe this in my heart: I feel that the software has "seal" in the machine, waiting for me to break the spell. The hard work of Xingxing is not worth mentioning.
After Berkeley, I started to provide some software I wrote to another software: a text editor with a PASCAL compiler, some UNIX programs and a text editor called VI. (Amazing is that it has been more than 20 years since now, it is still widely used). In these software, the exploration finally formed a Berkeley version of UNIX, resulting in my personal "successful disaster": Too many people want to get it, so I can't complete my Ph.D.. Fortunately, I got a job for the DARPA (US Department of Defense Advanced Program Research Bureau) to apply the UNIX system to the Internet. My task is to make UNIX systems more reliable and can run a lot of large applications. This work is very interesting and has high remuneration. And, confession, I didn't see what robots were seen in this project or else.
Subsequently, until 1980, I have been studying. The publishing version of the UNIX system is very successful. My small project will soon have money and some staff, but in Berkeley, the office is always much less than money; there is no need to provide the room required for my plan, so, When I invited me when the SUN Microfit Company was invited, I joined them. In Sun, we put a lot of time for early workstations and personal computers. I am involved in the development of the advanced microprocessor technology and Java, JINI. From all these things, I believe that I will never be a Luduist. I have always believed that the value of scientific research in scientific research is to find truth and the possibility of massive work practice for improving material conditions. In the past few centuries, the industrial revolution has not allowed to improve the quality of life of everyone. I have always hope that my career can make a contribution to solve the problem of people's livelihood.
I have never felt pessimistic disappointment. My job is more influential than I hope, more extensive than what I think. I used for more than 20 years to make the computer like I hope, it is almost still not able to achieve this goal), and more easily (this goal has been relatively successful). Remove some limited technological advances, these problems are still there, and even more difficult to solve it.
When I pay attention to the moral dilemma of technical achievements in weapons research, I don't want my own research field to face such problems, at least not immediately.
When a storm center is in the storm, he is hard to make a correct judgment on the situation. As a scientist and technician, when we are in the excitement of the ecstasy, we can't see the consequences of our invention. We have been known for a long time, we can't stop the footsteps, this is the scientist's nature, if only this is, then we are unmanned scientists. Now we have to tell you: Update more powerful technological progress will eventually press the life itself!
For a long time, I realized that the progress in the information technology is not from computer scientists, computer designers or electronic engineers, but from physicists. Early 1970, Physlays Stephen Wolfman and Brosl Hasslacher introduced me to me the theory and nonlinear systems. In 1990, I learned about the knowledge of complex systems in the conversation with Danny-Hillis, Biologist Stewart Cavman, Nobel Physics Awards, and others. Hass Lacher and Electronics Engineers, Device Experimental Physicians Mark Reed let me appreciate the unbelievable application prospects of molecular e-learning.
In my own work, as one of the three microprocessor architectures: SPARC, Picojava, MAJC designer, and one of the designers of the designer of the above architecture, I personally feel the law of Moore. In the past few decades, Moore's law precisely predicted the exponential growth of semiconductor technology. Until last year, I still want to believe that the Moore's law can accurately predict the growth rate of semiconductor technologies before 2010 before some physical limit. I don't think there will be new technologies to keep semiconductor technology steadily move. However, the rapid development of molecular electronics and related nanotechnology has enabled we can take a single atom and molecular to take a flat etch diode so that we can maintain or even surpass Moore in another 30 years. We have hope to build a machine than the current personal computer, enough to achieve the dream of Kutzak and Morovick.
When powerful computing power and physical science, when the gene in-depth understanding and its huge evolutionary ability, whether it is good or bad, it is a blessing, we have fully capable of changing this world: being bound in nature The replication and evolutionary mechanisms can now be manified by humans.
I have never felt that I was designed with intelligent machine when designing software and hardware. Software and hardware are so fragile, the ability of the machine "Thinking" is so bad, even if considering the levels that may achieve, it is too far away from the future. But now, with the rapid development of human level in the past 30 years, a new idea in my mind has emerged: the tools we have to develop will help those technical results that can replace humanity. mature. What do I feel about this? I am very uneasy. I dedicate my life to build a reliable software system. For me, some people depict the future of the world do not appear. My personal experience tells me that we always evaluate the design capacity of your own design, and a small mistake in design will cause irreparable losses.
We gave these technologies unbelievable power, then how should we share peace with them? Our own technology development may, and even very likely to lead to itself. Isn't we carefully move?
At first, the dream of the robot is that the smart machine can work for us to do all human capabilities, so that we can live with leisurely and return to Eden. And George-Dyson, Darwin in the robot world, issued a warning in the process of studying this dream: "There are three players in life and their evolutionary games: human, natural, and machine, I stood in nature Nature, I suspect that it is standing on the machine. "As we saw above, Moravich believes that we may not survive when we encounter advantageous robots.
How long does it take to show smart robots? In the upcoming computer capabilities, it will make it a reality in 2030, and once a smart robot appears, this is just a very step on the robot race, but this robot itself, it can produce countless self Evolutionary copy.
The second dream about the robot is that we will gradually replace our body technology, and reach eternal life by downloading our consciousness. This is the details of the foreground that Daniel - Hillis will be slowly adapted; the details of the description of Lei-Kuttville in the "Intelligent Machine". (We have been in the transplantation of the human body on the transplantation of the human body on the cover of the human body on the cover of the "Connection" magazine 8.02.
However, if we are downloaded to our technology equipment, will we have the opportunity to become our own, or even humans? I think there is no one in the form of robots, and the robot will never be our child.
The genetic engineering commitment to reduce the use of pesticides while increasing crop yields, making our agriculture in the sky, creating thousands of new bacteria, plants, viruses and animals; replacing natural reproduction or enhanced by cloning technology Natural reproductive ability; cure disease, increase our life and quality of life; there are many many. We are now exactly that the profound changes in these biotechnology are coming, and will challenge the traditional concept of life!
Techniques such as human clones have made us pay extra attention to the upcoming ethics and moral issues. For an alteration, if we use genetic engineering technology to transform our own body, or transform different people, races, we will destroy our democratic politics: equality.
There is no doubt that the huge power of genetic projects will bring serious safety problems during their use. Our friend Amory Lovins recently wrote a editorial with Hunter Lovins, and they examined such dangers from ecology. In the question they care: "New Botanical" (see "Two Botany's Story" 247). Amory has been paying attention to the overall view of the artificial system in its long career. This overall system is often found in other ways to seem to have a simple and high solution. This approach can also be used here. After reading Lovins's editorial editorial, I saw Greg Eusterbrook issued a non-fixed official review of genetically modified rice in Gene Reform Rice in the New York Times (November 1999). Written under the big title: "Future food: unless Luke people won, there will always be a rich vitamin."
Is AMORY and LOVINS Ludder? Of course, I believe we agree that as long as we appropriately pay attention to the danger of transferring the genes between species, "Golden Rice" and its contained vitamin A are beneficial to us.
We are gradually increasing the degree of concern to genetic engineering and innate dangers, just like the response brought about by Lovins. The average public is now rare to focus on gene improvements, and they do not agree to do not agree to this kind of food.
However, genetic engineering technology has been so far away. In the memo of Lovins, USAP (US Department of Agriculture) has approved approximately 50 modified crops that can be spread without restrictions, and more than half of the soy and one-third of corn in the world now contain genes from other organisms.
Here, very important is that the genetic engineering field I am paying attention is, and more importantly, whether it is military or accident, or a deliberate terrorist attack, the genetic engineering gives them a powerful white plague. ability.
Many miracles of Nazi technology were first described in 1959 by Nobel Physics Winners Richard - Ferman Feynman's speech, and then, this speech was published in "under the bottom." In the mid-1980s, I left a deep image of Eric Drexler's "Creation Engine". In this book, he vividly depicts atomic material production, creates a wonderful Utopia. There can be very convenient to produce everything there. Using nanotechnology I artificial intelligence, almost any kind of disease you can imagine the disease or the shortcomings of the body will be perfectly resolved.
Next book, "Liberation of the Future: Nanotechnology Revolution", by DIEXLER, depicts a change in the world with molecular level "assembly". "Machinery" can produce costs to incredible solar energy, and the treatment of cancer and cold by enhance the human body immune system, completely clean the environment, the production price is low to confident, and smaller computers can be sent to the pocket. In fact, any products produced by "assembly" will not be higher than the cost of wood, and space flight will be more convenient than the current Cineherma flight, and can also resurrect extinct species.
I remember that I finished "Creating Engine" and it feels good. As a technician, this book makes me feel calm, that is, this book is impossible to show my incredible nanotechnology, it is indeed inevitable. If nanotechnology is our future, I will not have a sense of urgency in front of you. I will get into the Utopia in Drexler, I will enjoy life at this moment. I have no time to work in my future now in his future.
The imagination of Drexler has also brought a lot of fun. I sometimes draw a miracle of nanotechnology to people who have never heard of nanotechnology. After taking it with Drexler, I also gave them a personal post-class homework: "It is necessary to build an empire in nanotechnology; but if you want to get credits, we must build a force that destroyed it." I am very concerned about these obvious dangers that have been accompanied by miracles. As I said in the 1989 nanotechnology conference: "We can't only take a single study of moral issues related to the moral issues." But at the meeting of the next physicist, they made me believe in nanotechnology or even It is not working properly, or at least you can't work properly at any time.
Subsequently, I moved to Colorado, and I was working on the Skunk I led. My work focuses to the Internet software, the focus is to finally form some ideas in Java and Jini.
In the summer of my term, Brosl Hasslacher told me that nano-molecular electronics has been practiced. This is indeed a news, at least for me. I want to spend many people. This news thoroughly changed my views on nanotechnology, so I couldn't help but recall the "creation engine". After 10 years, I repeatedly read the work of Drexler, I found that I remember that the lengthy chapter "danger and hopes" are very few. In this chapter, the author pointing that nanotechnology may become "destroyed engine." When I reread this warner today, I am surprised that such a naive defense program proposed by Drexler! And I realized that the danger is much bigger than he thinks! (DREXLER founded the ForeSigh Research Institute in the 1980s because of the predication, Drexler founded the Foresigh Institute to help the public to meet the upcoming advanced technology - the most important thing is nanotechnology.)
Make "assembly work" a possible technical breakthrough is likely to be implemented within 20 years. In the next 10 years, molecular electronics can arrange a single molecule as a nanotechnology of circuit devices, soon, it will mature and become a very profitable technical achievement, and incur a significant increase in investment in nanotechnology.
But unfortunately, like nuclear technology, it is easy to use nanotechnology to make destruction, and nanotechnology has a very clear use of military, my terrorist attacks, and terrorists don't need suicide. The attack mode releases large-scale killing nanotechnology devices, which can build nanofines with selective damage capabilities, such as crowds with significant regions or biometrics.
Direct consequences of Safres-style transactions that have been made by the huge power of nanotechnology are what we are playing with fire - we may have to be included in the biosphere.
And Drexler is like it:
Not more efficient than the current solar panels, "there is a leaf tree" will squeeze out the normal trees, that is, those trees that are not edible everywhere. The "bacteria" "bacteria" will be rushed out of the real thinins, and they spread as pollen in the wind, rapidly, and put the life of life in the biosphere as a dust. If we don't prepare, the dangerous replication may be too wild, too small, spread too quickly and lose control. For us, even if it controls viruses and pollen, we have made us hurt their brains.
In those skilled in the nanotechnology, this "gray glue" threat is widely known as "gray glue problems". Although a large amount of loss of control is neither "gray" color, it is not "glue". But the term "gray glue" refers to "replicator" can apply less angry than weed crabgrass. They may be a winner in biological evolution, but this does not make them high people. Make this fact more clearly: we can't afford the accidents caused by such "copy assembly".
Compared to Tianzhi fireball or ice and snow, "gray glue" is very likely to be the tragic ending of our human being adventures. And all of this may only be due to a simple laboratory accident.
The devastating self-replication power in genetic engineering, nanotechnology and robot (GNR) is very likely to make our human development. Self-replication is a major research method for genetic engineering, which utilizes bacteria's self-replication mechanism, while main dangers come from "gray glue" of nanotechnology. The story of the robot ramping, such as the "Star Travel", Borge, by copying or variaring the moral constraints applied by its manufacturer, this scene is performed in our science fiction and science fiction movies. Self-replication instincts may be more close to material nature than we imagined, so it is more difficult to control, and if we have the opportunity to control. Sturoot Kauffman recently published a article called "self-replication: rising" in the Nature magazine. He pointed out 32-Amino-ACID amine energy "self-catalytic self". We don't know how extensive in nature, but Kauffman believes that this phenomenon suggests that our "self-production molecular system mode than Watson-Crek" twice-pairing is substantially much. In fact, we have already got a clear warning for many years: broadly spread GNR knowledge comes with the hazardous dangers. Just only need knowledge to cause large-scale damage. But these warnings have not yet been known; it is obvious that the public does not pay sufficient attention, and the information about this danger is unprofitable for many people.
The nuclear technology used to manufacture large-scale anti-injury weapons in the 20th century (NBC) is military technology developed by government agencies in the past and present. In contrast, the 21st century GNR technology has a clear business use, and there is no exception to commercial company companies in progress. In this era of smart roads, as long as you get the biggest benefits, you can release the magical invention creation with science as your own slaves. Under the current global sauceism and its diverse financial power and competition, we do not think of thinking to make decisions to develop these new technologies.
This is the first time in our planet, a certain creature has caused many other species into a desperate situation.
This may be a very common process, circulating in many worlds, a planet that is only formed, quietly in a hurry in the Star River, life is slowly formed; next is a kaleido-like biological evolution; intelligence gradually emerge; One day, the creature has been in danger; then the technique is invented; the natural law is gradually understood; these laws come from practice, knowledge about these rules is preserved by unprecedented speed, spread; they know the world, get boundless Power; 就 象 光光 一, they have created the invention that can change the world; some of the civilizations on the planets are long and twisted, and the future is a monk bridge that is lost in a thousand people. Some safely through the difficult years, and some are not so lucky or cautious.
This is the fact that Sagan said in the "Dark Blue Point" book published in 1994, this book depicts the future fate of human beings in the universe. I realized that his eyes were so deep, I have already missed his teachings in the future. For all these rating, Sagan's contribution is not just a simple common sense, and many of the leaders of many 21st century technologies look lack this kind of humility.
I will remember my grandmother against the abuse of antibiotics. She began to work in nurse from a war. As a nurse, unless it is absolutely necessary, use antibiotics is harmful to people.
This is not to say that she is an enemy of progress. She saw many technological progress in the 70 years of nurse career. My grandfather
It is a diabetic person who has benefited from proven to be effective in the treatment methods that have proven effective treatment. But my grandmother, like some people who are clear from other minds, may think that we will obviously be able to cope with relatively simple work, and to manage or understand our own injury, they want to invent a robot. " Alternative species, is this too arrogant? I now realize that she has already understood the natural world of all livelies, and everything is born, and it is full of awe. With a fear, we will not be too daring.
The root of this awe is generally correct, better than scientific so-called evidence. The artificial system we built is obviously very fragile and may make our development of humanity. The fragile incompetence of the artificial system has made us shame many times.
We should learn from the manufacture of the first atomic bomb and its arms race. But we immediately repeated the same mistakes, and the disaster similar to the situation was about to reproduce the world.
The achievement of the first atomic bomb is from the genius physicist Robert-Aubenhea's outstanding leadership. The Auben Sea is non-born to be interested in politics, but his threat to the third empire has a pain in the threat to Western civilization. Since Hitler may have a nuclear weapon, this threat is undoubtedly a fatal. Under this threat, he used his outstanding intelligence, the enthusiasm of physics, and collected countless great thoughts, and successfully created the first atomic bomb again in Los Alamos.
Surprisingly, after the initial motivation disappears, this work has deviated from the original idea! At a meeting after V-EDAY, some physicists believe that it may stop the research work on the original bullets, and the Aubenheimer insisted on continuing. He made this decision. Some strange: not afraid to occupy the huge casualties caused by Japan, but because the United States that will be strong should grasp the preparatory knowledge of atomic weapons. More powerful reason is that Momentum has been built, the first atomic strong test - Trinity - is ready.
We know that in this atomic bomb trial, physicists have to overcome a large number of unknown dangers. According to Edward - Taylor's calculations, they initially worried that the atomic bombing would ignite the atmosphere. Later, amended calculation reduced the danger of destroying the world to only one million (Taylor said he later gave up the observation of the atomic bombing to ignite the entire atmosphere).
However, the Aubenhemail, is very worried about the three-piece experiments. He arranges people in northern Mexico to evacuate, and, of course, there is still danger of starting nuclear military competitions.
Within the same month in the same month with the first successful nuclear test, the two atomic bombs cast Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Some scientists suggested that they only need to simply demonstrate the huge power of this bomb, without truly cast them into Japanese cities, they think that this will greatly increase the opportunity to control after the war. But this suggestion is no one. As long as the tragedy of Pearl Port is still alive, it is impossible to let Dulun's president only demonstrate this weapon without investing them on the Japanese. It is strongly required to end the war as soon as possible so that you can save lives that may be lost in the battle of Japan. Although ignore the truth is very simple, just as the physicist Freman-Dyson said, the reason why the original bullet is just no one has courage to say "no"!
Physicists are very shocking on the consequences of the explosion of Hiroshima atomic bomb in August 1945, and it is very important to realize this. They describe the continuous impact wave: First, the bomb exploded, then all the people live in the horror, and then people think that they will not drop another bomb. However, the other is still in Nagasaki, only three days after Hiroshima.
In November 1945, three months after the atomic bomb explosion, Auburnheird adheres to scientific attitude: "Unless you think that the world's knowledge and its power is something that is true value for humans, and I believe that you have to use them to spread knowledge and make achievements. Otherwise, you don't have to be a scientist. "O'Henhemail completed the" Acheson-Lilient House "with others. Regarding this report, as Richard Rhodes said in his recently "Technology Vision": "Find a method of preventing secret nuclear arms race in the case of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons to the world's governments," they The suggestion is to develop nuclear weapons to be transferred from the state to an international institution.
This initiative has produced Barich plans and submitted to the United Nations in 1946, but never been adopted (it may be because of Rhodes suggestions, Bernard Baruch "insists that it is guaranteed by traditional binding, so it is inevitable In the murderer, it is almost certainly objected by the Soviet Union under Stalinism. "). Other efforts to prevent military competitions through international nuclear weapons are also around the wall. There is no trust between American politicians and domestic people, and there is a threat from the Soviet Union, and the opportunity to avoid the arms race will soon do not return.
In 1949, the Soviet Union exploded the first atomic bomb. In 1955, the United States and the Soviet Union tried a hydrogen bomb suitable for airdrop. The nuclear military competition has begun.
In the past 20 years ago, in the "Trinity" Nuclear-explosive Times ", Freman-Dyson summed up the scientific attits of our world into the edge of the nuclear war.
"How fascinating when the nuclear weapon explosion is, as a scientist, you can't resist its temptation, everyone can feel this, feel the energy of this huge power to their hands, release the energy of the ignite star The pride is proud. Let them bow their ears, you can create these miracles, you can throw 10 million tons of boulders. It gives people the fantasy of infinite power, it can solve all the problems. This is scientific Arrogant, it makes people feel that they are all. "
Now, there is a future, we are new technology creators. We are a dazzling star in the future. Under the high economic return and global competition, we completely don't care about the danger, it is difficult to predict what we are creating and conceiveing can grow in this world, and finally replace us.
In 1947, the "The Bulletin Atom Science" magazine began to put the "trial day clock" on the cover. Within 50 years, it shows the estimated value of our faculty, reflecting the changes in the international situation. The pointer on the clock has been moved 15 times, until today, only 9 minutes left at midnight, reflecting the risk of nuclear weapons to continuous and is imminent. Recently, India and Pakistan have joined the nuclear club to prevent the goal of preventing nuclear weapons from failing to fail, this danger makes the clock never never never midnight in 1998.
How many dangers are in our lives. Is it not enough to nuclear weapons? Do you have these technologies? How high is the danger of human extinction?
The philosopher John Goeslie has been studied at least 30% of the dangers of human extinction. However, Lei-Kuzville regards the accusation of him too optimistic attitude, and still believes that we are more likely to be safe. However, these two attitudes should not be promoted, and they have not considered another possibility: Those who have vowed did not harm the human beings have a terrible change now!
In the face of such an assessment, some serious people have begun suggesting that we may immigrate to the alien. We can use von-if Iman's probes to clone Galaxy, jump from a planet to another, and it has been in full swing. After 5 billion years, we need this to do this (or less, after 3 billion years later, if the sun is striking, the sun is strucking). But if we enter the world of Kuzwell and Moravik, then in this century, we may have to do this! What is the morality meaning here? If we have to move alien for racial survival, who should be responsible for the fate of human beings? (Ourselves, after al), who is finally left? Even if we all over the universe, will we repeat the same mistakes? Alternatively, it was later discovered that the old problem is still like a movie? The fate of our race on the earth, the fate of our race in the Milky Way, it looks unpredictable.
Another idea is to build a series of defense to fight every dangerous technology. The strategic defense plan proposed by the Reagan government is to establish an attempt to establish a defense against the Soviet nuclear strike. However, Arthur C-CLARKE believes that: "Supplementary huge sums of money can really establish a regional defense system, as long as it leaks a few partial ballistic missiles, the TOUTED of the national umbrella is meaningless." Louis -Alvavrz may be The greatest experimental physicist in this century, the supporters who describe these programs are some "uncommon people".
Clark said: "Staring at the crystal ball of our clouds, I guess the overall defense weapon will become a reality within an century. But at the same time, the object of its defense can continue to go from the pipeline as the daily necessities. Down, they are so horrible, so that we will not feel annoying for this, just like the primitive people have no feelings. "
In the "Create Engine" book, Eric Drexler proposes to establish a nanotechnology-based defense, an immune system for the biosphere to defend all dangerous replicans that may escape from the laboratory. But he suggested that it is extremely dangerous, nothing to prevent it from developing excessive development and destroying the biosphere.
Similar difficulties are also existing in a defense line that deal with robotic or genetic technology. The power of these technologies is too powerful and difficult to defense within a limited time. Even if we can build such a defense, the side effect of developing its technology is as dangerous as the technology of our strong defense.
What might happen above is not that we try to oppose, or it is not that we can't complete, or both. In my opinion, the only real choice is to give up, limit those technical research and development, limit our pursuit of such knowledge.
Yes, I do know how knowledge helps us, especially the exploration of truth. We start looking for you from ancient times. Aristotle opened in its "Metaphysics": "People are born to know." As the fundamental value of our society, we know the information acquisition and recognize the number of questions caused by the trial to obtain development knowledge. In modern times, we have begun to worship scientific knowledge. However, ignoring a strong historical lesson, allowing yourself without restricting development knowledge, will make us fell into the situation of species, and common sense requires us to test even very basic, and long-term beliefs.
This is Nietzsche warned us at the end of the 19th century, not only God died, but also to scientific trust, it is not denyable to exist, not ---- origin to the application of calculus, it must originate from the willingness to pursue truth , Regardless of many dangeous facts. Useless and danger of "Truth at Any Price" has been confirmed.
This is the danger of our future future. We pursue the results of truth. If the truth pursued by the science and technology will make us destroy, it can be seen as a dangerous "new God". If we agree, as a species, what do we need? Why do you need them? Where did we start? Why is it there? We can keep our future away from danger, then we may know what I can or should I give up? In addition, we can easily start the GNR technology-based arms race, just as NBC-based military competition based on the 20th century. Once such an arms race begins, it is very difficult to stop, which may be the most dangerous adventure.
We need to know that at this moment, we are just our bad habits, our desires, our economic system, our competition is driving us, rather than the Manhattan program when World War II, then we face the enemy of uncommon The deadly threat of our civilization.
I believe we all hope that our common values and morality can determine our place. If we have gained more group wisdom in the past few years, then the dialogue to the human ending is more realistic, and we will relieve the dangerous action of the power to be confident, it seems that it is not as troublesome.
People may think that I am going to make such a conversation for myself. Obviously, a person has such a desire, but as a species, our behavior looks not as determined by our good evil. In handling the threat of nuclear weapons, we often spide yourself, so that we will face greater risks. Whether it is from political motivation, or because we don't want to have more junks, or because we face this serious threat we panic. Real reasons I may never know, but it is not a good precedent.
New Dora's box: genetic technology, nanotechnology, robot technology is about to open, but we have no despotection. It is difficult to close the box once it is open. It is not required to minimize or refine, they can freely copy. Once they escape, they have no trace. Although it is an unique complimentary dialect, Churchill emphasizes the fact that the US people and their leaders will make the right decision after testing every possible road. "And here, we must have more foresight. We can only do the right thing, because a mistake will make us all over.
As Thorra said: "We are not driving on the highway; but what is driving. This thing is what we struggling to resist. The problem is that who is the master? We can Is it unfair in the technology of creation? "
We are being pushed into a new century, no plan, no control, no brakes. Are we deep in the quagmire? Although I don't think so, we haven't worked hard to save self-rescue, and finally used to ensure that we can go to the correct road. We already have the first pet robot, but also genetic engineering technology for commercial purposes, and nanotechnology has also progressed very quickly. These technologies have made great progress, not like the Manhattan program and the Trinity nuclear test, we don't have to complete the final steps to prove that a technology is deep and difficult. In robotics, genetic engineering, or nanotechnology, self-replication technological breakthroughs will come at any time. Just after the mammal was successfully successful, we went to the time.
And, I believe we have a willingness to hope for hope. In the last century, we have provided a bright precedent for the attempt to deal with large-scale killing weapons for our reference: the United States unilaterally abandoned the development of biological weapons without any prerequisites. This action comes from such a realistic condition: When the foreman has developed a horrible weapon, it is possible to be easily replicated and flowing into the hand of rogue or terrorist organization.
It is very clear that when we follow the technique of developing techniques for manufacturing these weapons, we will add a bigger threat to us; and we don't do this, we are more secure. In 1972, we abandoned biological weapons in the Biological Weapons Agreement and gave up chemical weapons at the 1993 Chemical Weapons Agreement. In order to maintain a considerable number of nuclear weapons with us 50 years, the US Senate rejected the "Convention on the All-Of Nuclear Weapons", which means that the abandoned nuclear weapons are not a simple political issue, but with the end of the cold war, we have one Unique opportunities to avoid multilateral arms race.
Based on BWC and CWC's abandonment of biological and chemical weapons, successful abolition nuclear weapons can help us establish a good habit of giving up dangerous technology (in fact, as long as it is destroying approximately 100 nuclear weapons within the world, it is probably equivalent to all weapons of World War II to destroy the ability. Total, this should be more easy to complete, we can eliminate nuclear weapons threat to humans).
It turns out whether it is very difficult task if it is truly abandoned dangerous technology, but it is not a problem that cannot be solved. We are very fortunate, we have successfully completed similar work in the case of BWC threats. Our main task will be applied to those skilled in this regard, but it is possible for military technology. The most important thing here is transparency. The level of verification is directly related to the difficulties that identify the difficulties that need to be given up in legal activities.
Frankly, I think we face the situation in 1945 more simpler: nuclear technology can be easily divided into business and military purposes, can be monitored by detecting the natural characteristics of the atom, and easy to measure Out of its radiation. Research on military use must be carried out in the national-level laboratory, such as Los Alamos, research results will be as secret as possible.
GNR technology is unclear into business and military purposes; they are very potential in the commercial market, only tracking their technical progress in national laboratories. Since they have a wide range of commercial purposes, there is a need for a similar to the detection method of biological weapons to enforce certain institutions to give up research and development of GNR. This method inevitably causes conflicts between personal privacy, intellectual property and guarantee that our allocated supervision requirements. This method will undoubtedly be strongly opposed due to losing personal privacy and freedom of action.
The monitoring work requires a strict ethical guidance norm of scientists and engineers, that is, similar to Hippoclasia vows, so that they have courage to raise red cards when they need, and even have a very high personal price. This will respond 50 years ago, the appeal of Nobel's Hans-Bethe (one of the oldest survivors of Manhattan programs) after Nobel: "All scientists will give up and stop creating, developing, improvement and production. Nuclear weapons and other weapons with potential large-scale anti-ability. "In the 21st century, it is to ask people who are developing NBC and GNR technology to strengthen personal responsibility and to be vigilant to avoid large-scale anti-weapons and production of large-scale anti-mass The knowledge of weapons is in the world.
Thoreau also said: "We will blind one of the data we can provide." Everyone is seeking happiness, but it is worthy of questioning: Do we want to take the danger of the whole army to capture more knowledge? Or wealth; our material demand is limited, this is a common sense, and we all know that certain knowledge is very dangerous, must be abandoned.
We should not pay for these dangerous knowledge, and should not be seen in danger of extinction with synchronous growth. I have to pursue eternal life regardless of this. Emotion is not dead, maybe our initial Utopia dream, but it is not our only dream.
I have recently met outstanding authors, scholars Jacques-Attali, his work "LIQNES D'Hoeizons" ("Thousands of Year") presells the upcoming omnipotent calculation, making me generate Java, Jini to use The inspiration in this area. In his new book "Fraternites", in the past years, our Utopia's dream has passed through: "In the scientific sprout, people think that they live on earth is just a painful maze, At its head, the gate of death, leading to the palace of God, and entered the future. Heberteee, there is a later Greek to liberate themselves from God's rule, and dreams with a freedom of ideal city. Others have noticed commercial development, they understand that a little freedom will make people with each other, so they seek equality. "
Jacques understand how these three different Utopian purposes have conflict in our society today. He described next to the fourth Utopia and built a brotherhood in the Lei. The brothers will connect the happiness of individuals and others to order the vows of self-service.
This makes my doubts about Kutzville more specific. Through machine technology, we are immortal, almost eternal techniques may not be the Utopia we want, and this pursuit will bring obvious dangers. Maybe we should rethink our Utopian choice.
Where can we find new ethical foundations to set the forward route? I found a sense of inspiration to me in the Wish Lama's work "New Millennium Moral". One thing may be widely known, but some people pay special attention: Dalai believes that the most important thing is to guide our lives with care and mercy to others, our society needs to develop more solid sense and mutual Rely on the concept. He plans to develop a absolute ethical dogma that looks like Aatali's Friternity Friends in Aatatali.
Da Lai further believes that we must understand what people feel happier, clear evidence shows that whether it is material progress or the pursuit of knowledge, but only relying on scientific and its pursuits can be limited.
Our happiness in our West comes from ancient Greece, defined as "in limited life with dynamic activities to pursue excellence."
Obviously, we need to find the challenges worth doing in my life, and enough survival space and time, if we are seeking happiness, no matter what conditions. But I believe that we must seek another road to vent our creation, beyond the continuous economic growth; this growth has greatly benefited us for a few centuries, but it can't bring us real happiness, we It is now necessary to choose between unconstrained, non-directional growth pursuits generated by science and technology and obvious hazards with accompanying.
Since I met with Kutzville, John-Searle has been more than a year. I am watching around, and those who I have found that they have been paying attention to our dilemma, I have hopelessly consider and give up the call of dangerous technology, I have hope. In my research experience, I also feel the significance of personal responsibility, not working for me, and is working for me to do.
However, many people know that the dangers of certain technologies are still maintained silent. When you ask questions, they just say that "this is nothing new" to the end, just like only what may happen. Will suffice. They told me that the university is studying such a living bioethonym. What you mentioned has already been blusted, and it is still a master. What you are worried, the argument is a long talk.
I don't know where these people hide their fear. As a designer of complex systems, I am a multi-faced hand to enter this field. But should this reduce my worries? I know how to discuss it, discuss, speech, but this means that these dangers have been conveyed to people? This means that we can reduce the danger we face?
It is not appropriate. Can we suspect that knowledge has become our weapon? The experience of atomic physicists has clearly suggested that there is a danger of growing up to grow, and the technical methods that can open human beings have a personal responsibility. We can, like some people who have done it, creating a problem that there is no time to eradicate. If we don't want our consequences of the invention, we must have similar surprises and shock, we must think twice and then.
In my career, I have been committed to improving software reliability. Software is just a tool and as a tool constructor, I have to fight for the use of tools I created. I have believed that the software reliability is more reliable, and it will make this world more safe and beautiful. If I start with the opposite belief, I will use moral obligation to terminate my work, I can now Imagine that this day will eventually come.
When these are all from me, although I will not anger, there is a melancholy. Since then, technological progress will be called people.
I don't know if you remember the beautiful countdown in the movie "Manhattan": Woody - Allen is orally in a small chair. He is writing a short story, telling people to cause unnecessary, neuropathy, because they have to solve it from their universe, and the terrible problems will be freed.
He gave himself a question: "Why is life worth spend?" And for him, considering what makes life have spent the life: Grocho Max, Willis Mays, the second chapter of Jupiter Symphony, Louis - Armstrong "Potato Head Blues", Swedish movie, Flaudert's "Feel Education", Malone-Branda, Frank-Sintra, Cezamne's apple and orange, Sanwo's crab, and finally wonderful applause: His Love - Cui's face.
Everyone has their own beloved things. We care about them and bet the most basic humanity to them. Finally, we remain optimistic, because we have the ability to pay attention, we will fight against the danger of us now.
My current wish and participation from different backgrounds are more broadly discussions on current issues, rather than prior to some reason assume people's fear or love technology development.
As the beginning, I have proposed such issues twice in the meeting initiated by the ASPEN Institute and suggested that the American Arts and Scientific Academies and Pug Wash meetings, respectively, to incorporate them into their own range. (They were held since 1957, especially nuclear weapons, they have been held and have developed a feasible policy.)
Unfortunately, the Pug Wash meeting began to hold almost 15 years after the nuclear martial arts. We can also do it on the first-first-scale anti-weapon issue that has been generated by the 21st century technology. If you don't start act, you will have a general trend, everything will be too late.
So I still keep exploring, I have a lot of things to learn, no matter what I succeed or fail, it is not a hit whether it is difficult or becoming these technologies. I got up late. At this time, I was about 6 o'clock in the morning. I tried to conceive some better answers. I tried to break the petrochemical spell and explained our answer.
