For investors who have grown in the 2004 securities market, the Chinese collection group (000039) is clearly a huge wheel that walks. It is inevitable that someone will suspect whether there is a real picture in front of you: "How can I make so much money?"
The net profit in China 2004 increased by up to 178% year-on-year. This amazing profit growth makes the Chinese collection have to face another question:
What is the intensive profit margin high? Is it lower than selling prices than others?
In addition, huge accounts receivable have always been a "target" questioned by the question.
For a long time, the CIMC Group is not only the market's point of view, but also the heavy market shares held by many funds. Under the prestigious, what is it? There is a need to explore the answer to the question of the Chinese collection. To this end, the reporter visited the container industry and entered the central collector group.
Mai Boliang should dance. At least, the shareholders of the China Collection Group seem to be the case.
If the investor bought a stock of the Chinese collection in 14 yuan earlier 2004, they can sell 25 yuan at the end of the year. Of course, there are more investors to earn more - because they hold the time "a little longer" - In 2003 and 2004, the total share price of the CIC Group has soared 236%.
In any case, the Chinese collection 2004 Shanghai-Shenzhen blue chip ledger is enough to dance investors. However, Mai Bille, who has already traveled in the securities market. In his view, "the strength of the upstream and downstream enterprises in the container manufacturing industry is compared, and the medium is like a flat boat struggled in the giant wheel."
Secret of "Iron Box"
Not? The suppliers of China have the world's largest steel mills, including Maersk, Triton, etc., including Maersk, Triton, etc., partners have universal electrical, Sanjing Trade, Sumitomo Trade. If the business income of the world "huge rounds" is made into a histogram, the height of the concentrated is like a thin iron.
"In the" Fortune "World 500, Toronto Towel 2003 was received for $ 10.827 billion, and the CIMS Group was only 1667 million US dollars in 2003." It is not someone else, it is Group people yourself. After the performance of 3 billion US dollars in 2004, the "President Work Report" has become a quite worry. "Toasting is a crime of people, but don't think that I am very good." Mai Bo Kikai is a tone.
"The crisis of the enterprise is not in the low tide, but at the climax. The four big boats in the history of the sea, in the 1980s, it was almost three, just because the money was too easy to make money." Even the common employees of the Chinese collection Will tell you about this thinking - obviously, the "report" has reached the expected effect.
However, for investors who have been sad at the 2004 securities market, the Chinese collection is clearly a huge wheel that walks. It is inevitable that someone will suspect whether there is a real picture in front of you: "How can I make so much money?"
"If I don't work in China, I may also doubt how it will have such a good performance." The Chinese collector did not want to pay attention to the sound of questioning - how many people really understand this industry? "
Huge receivable has always been questioning question.
"The payment method after delivery - the payment method of the container industry is determined. When the company's income grows faster, the accounts receivable have also been proportional to the proportion." Zheng Xianling, senior analyst of the Huaxia Securities Research, believes this is not surprising. The collected accounts receivable from 1998 to revenue in revenue to 20%. However, if the Central Collection is compared with the same industry company, it will find that the accounts receivable are the characteristics of containers.
From the annual receipt of the accounts accounting for the main business income, the proportion of the medium term is the highest, followed by the third quarter, and the ratio of the accounts receivable at the end of the third quarter. This is consistent with the Shengsian container ranked second in the same industry.
"Each industry has its own specific operation rules, which may show a different financial indicators that are different from general enterprises or market averages, but if these indicators change are regular, reasonable and healthy, it It will not affect the company's true value. From the company's historical data, there is an over-negative cash flow at the end of 2002, but from 1998 to 2003, the total amount of net profit is 265,5917 million yuan, and the cash flow is 29,575.08 million yuan. The cash flow of operating activities is higher than the net profit of 502.682 million yuan per year, indicating that the company's cash flow is net inflow. "Well-running." Like Zheng Xianling, many securities company research have given such conclusions. The financial statements of the China Collection Group showed that the accounts receivable were about 5 or so, there was no bad debt in history, and the company accounted for 99.01% in one year.
Of course, more people will think that those "Iron Boxes" is nothing different from the size. Therefore, the container is considered to be a harmonious product, at least, the output of the dry cargo box is considered to be considered. So, TEU, that sounds very professional, was calculated by the questioners to carry out various indicators.
"Can these professionals can be more professional? Of course, for those who don't understand this industry, how much it is a little bit of this common sense." The secret of the Central Collection of the Jade Group helpless.
TEU also known as a standard box, a TWENTY FEET Equivalent Unit, is a quantity of containers. "It is just a theoretical quantity computing unit, does not reflect the price and cost ratio relationship between different box types, so actually according to the container unit price calculated by the TEU. Each 40-foot ordinary box is from 2 TEUs. Calculating, 40 feet ultra-high boxes are also calculated in accordance with approximately 2 TEUs, but costs and prices are very different. Usually a 40-foot ordinary box is from quantity, but the price and cost ratio is 1.6: 1. Ok, they can re-carry out all the operations, but remember, this is still limited to ordinary dry goods boxes. "Yu Qun wants to explain that this problem is not simple to equally, you go upstairs in the same booth in the same price The total price of 10 pounds of watermelon purchased must be twice as many as 5 pounds of watermelon.
Misunderstorm is not understood to the industry. Zheng Yuanhua, director of the company's president office, more hoped that the question was coming to the company: "The numbers never should not be wood."
In the open exhibition hall of the office building of the central collection, anyone will be attracted by the "iron box" of the shape of the shape - all container products with historical significance have made a delicate model. "The customer's demand is five flowers, which determines that even the price of each of the same customers can not be the same. Some containers sell $ 2,000, some can sell $ 20,000."
Although in the first three quarters of 2004, the earnings per share reached 1.767 yuan, but Mai Bo Liang still said: Only the earnings per share, not to analyze the entire business, and think that it is a performance This is a simple judgment.
Take a look at how the container industry is a business:
"It is a calm selling water in the Western US aircraft. Finding the gold mine, it is only a very few lucky, and the selling water has earned super profit stably." Container industry is thinking.
Michael Chan, BOC International in Hong Kong, said that the relationship between container ship and containers is like the relationship between the car and the tire, and there is no tire car to travel.
Look at the huge demand for cargo ships in a hurry to the container:
Germany does not come to Meihai Economics and Logistics Institute (ISL), it is expected that the 2005 world container fleet capacity increased by 12.5%, an increase of 14% in 2006.
The British Clarkes Institute has repeatedly raised the forecast of container production in 2005, and the capacity of container ship will increase by 12.2% ...
The most conservative estimate is: "The ship's boat delivery period is generally one and a half years. Most shipping companies will order ship containers 3 to 6 months before the delivery of new ships. Therefore, even if the economic growth rate begins to fall However, in view of the current ship orders, it is expected that the demand for containers in the next three years will continue to grow at a rate of about 11% per year, which is higher than 8% of the historical average growth rate. "Deputy Manager of the Asia-Pacific stock research department in Hong Kong Christopher Lee said that the current situation in the shipping market is the best in 20 years.
"The year is limited, and the year-year high growth." Wu Fei, vice president of the CIM, is a big crowding line in the container production in 20 years.
Boss
The boss of the container manufacturing industry - China accounts for 90% of the global market.
"In the first half of 2004, domestic export tax rebounded 4 percentage points. Everyone is saying that the container manufacturing enterprises have no profit after adjustment. Is there anyone talking about this problem? Chinese companies can adjust the price, this is actually equal to the entire container industry Adjust the price. What strength can stop? "At that time, the export tax rebate issue was in the face of the most investor in the jade group. But the fact is that the net profit in the first half of 2004 increased by up to 178% year-on-year.
This amazing profit growth makes the Chinese collection have to face another question: Why is the intensive profit margin higher than competitors? Is it lower than selling prices than others?
Just like Chinese container companies in the global container industry, for the concentration, the share is equally a magic wand. Currently, the concentration of the global container market is close to 60%.
"There is a strong pricing ability." Zhou Longhua, deputy director of the Southern Securities Institute, said. But the Chinese collection does not seem to like "pricing ability", they mitigate it as "bargaining ability."
Usually, homogeneous products should be similar in the market, because the market should have relatively fair prices. Therefore, we should conclude that if they are selling 20 feet of dry cargo boxes, the price of the Chinese collection should be the same as the win, at least too far. But what is the fact?
"In 2004, the container market price rises sharply, just like the flying kite, your line pulls the longer, the farther from this kite, you will be more difficult to control it. This line is the long representative Time, and the place in your hand is the order. "The dramatic fluctuations in the market make the order price and market prices quickly detached. "The same is delivered in May. If it is the order in January, the price should be around $ 1400 / marker box. If it is a fixed order in March, the price will rise to more than 1,700 US dollars." Reporter said. Therefore, only the lines in the hand are tighter, they will earn more.
Last year, the main reason for the acceleration of container prices was the raw material price increase. "If you are still $ 1400 in the case of price, it is still a $ 1400 order, then you must endure the 'low price' and rising ' High cost '. "Say it, this is not the same price of homogeneous products, but the problem of business strategies and business capabilities." Yu Qun believes that sales prices between companies companies are not comparable.
When the market share of the product reaches a certain extent, the rhythm of the company is enough to affect market supply and demand. According to the market insider, the order of the integration is mostly after the price increase.
It is said that the production completed in the first half of 2004 was mainly orders in 2003. Once the order is accepted, it is difficult to adjust the price.
"In 2004, the price is all the way, mainly due to the impact of two aspects: First, the cost increases. Steel prices have risen very fast, and the wooden floor has been maintained in high. Another factor should be seen from the supply and demand relationship. 2003 Starting the industry recovery, the shipping company is relatively strong. The two aspects of the common role trigger the box price. "Yu Qun did not explain how the intersection is subtle to the supply and demand relationship.
Of course, the central collection is equally capable of interpretation of "because of scale, so effective" to perform in cost issues on cost issues. "Hot-rolled sheets used in containers, the price rose by 30% in extreme cases last year, reaching $ 700 / ton in the market, this is a fact. Some companies have to buy high-priced steel, because there is no raw material production, It is not possible to deliver as scheduled. However, the situation is not a central collection. "I was said to have confirmed the reporter 's respecting the price of steel prices," "The price of the purchase of steel is indeed a large piece than the market." There is no situation in which production and delivery is not affected by the steel supply problem. "It is said that this is not difficult to understand, the material used in the container is the same as the shipbuilding, and Totter steel. "What is a strategic partner? When the steel industry is in the off-season, China is still a big customer of these steel companies. Therefore, when the steel industry is in the peak season, these steel companies have no reason not to open a market than the market. Prices offer some prices. "In other industries, strategic partnership between upstream companies is also very common. The scale is still a stabilizer of strategic partnership.
There is another fact: Mai Shemer has been expected to be very strong in the first half of 2004 in the first half of 2004, and decisively made the corresponding investment, such as paying a lot in the low price of steel, in order to prepare for future Expand production capacity in a timely manner. When Mai Boliang made this decision at the time, it was at the low season of the industry. Some people called "Mai boss crazy". But it turns out that Mai Bo Le woke up.
The explanation of "Zhongji's gross profit margin" is: "The average gross profit margin with past 10 years may be a bit high. But it is not very much more than history. The gross profit margin. "
The result of high gross profit margin is - the addition of new competitors. "Most of the container industries are public technology. From this point, there is no threshold. Anyone wants to enter. However, anyone who will be in the middle of the company first." Container industry is a comparison industry in the market competition. Therefore, "from this Huashan Road".
One day in August 2004, in the 8th floor of the Shenzhen Zhongji Group R & D Center, Mai Boliang said to the overall strategic deployment of the Shenzhen Exchange, and said a detail: "Directors of the Coron Group finished reading These (strategic planning) said, 'Competition with you is to die, forget it, or cooperate. "Gu Chujun did" said that the media said, "The integration of the two industries is that I admire, one is China aluminum industry, One is a central collection, our integration level has not reached the point. "
"We are a business person, the order is a one-piece, I didn't think about what market share." A investor told reporters that Wu Fei Pei's sentence made him finally become a hierarchical supporter. But this sentence, but the competitor felt fear.
Of course, the details of the fear of peers are in the same place in the middle of the central collection, the same site area production efficiency is 10 times in 10 years.
"How much is the market share? In fact, this problem is already thinking about 30% in the market share, but there is no answer until now."
"Customers are also more worrying, the central collection will not swallow the whole market. In fact, we have not thought about this."
With most industrial bodies, I like to tap the world map "This is our" that is different, the boss of the Chinese collection is more exposed to it "to be responsible industry leader": "General Think that which industry is transferred to China, it will not make money. Just like the home appliance manufacturing is transferred to China, and which appliance producers can make money? Container production in China, is started from the 1980s, By the beginning of 1990, the manufacturer was still more than 70. Some veces have never put into production from the beginning of the completion day. The Chinese collection also bought several factories. Experience the price competition Stage, you will understand that the container industry is now a healthy state. We make money, others also make money, and the intensiveness of the industry will make the industry health, improve the profitability of the entire industry. "" The Chinese collection is a competent competitor. " A person who was once a Korean modern group of container manufacturing boss to reporters.
"That big fish makes you sadness. We are clear because it, this pool will no longer have something to kill between the water less fish. But we are equally clear, we must always Consider, because this big fish is heavy, the oxygen in the pool is not enough for us to survive. "Competitors are described for the complex emotions of the Chinese collection.
In the zip saw of investors and the question, the other family Hong Kong listed company Shengshi container became the basis for both parties.
"You can't say that the Shengshi bought steel with this price, asked how the intent is low than it? Shengshi products sell this price, how can you ask how high it is better than it? So therefore Said that the conclusions said that the central collection must have a problem. In fact, people who have a slightly mind will understand that in the last year, the container industry is in the history of history, and the product price has risen sharply. Investors: Why is it high for high growth, and you are not? "Mi Xuejun, deputy general manager of Metai Investment, dismissed," ass determining his head "unilateral comparison.
See several aspects of investors generally think that "Shengshi and Central Collection":
product. The products of the concentrated products are all series, more than 200 varieties, and the piece of the Shengshi special box is very weak.
Production base layout. There are 18 factories in the middle of the Chinese collection, covering the entire coastal base, while the lion is only in Dalian, Qingdao, Tianjin, Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangdong has a factory, and the geographical location is far from concentration.
Management. The central collection is the group management, centralized financing, centralized procurement, centralized transmission, and the advantage of this scale is that the winnings cannot be done.
R & D. The dry cargo box does not have a technical threshold, which does not mean how to improve efficiency, improve process, new product development, and provide solutions for customers, new materials research and development. There are only one national-level R & D center in the industry, and 600 engineers serve them.
The business is not wanting to comment too much about this problem, but they still say that we have to add: We have Mai Bille, who is there? Obviously, this is not other companies to copy.
Reproach
Because Mai Bo Liang, I am afraid to trigger another argument: Some people are worried, if Mai Bo Liang leaves, the central collection will face the biggest risk; some people think that the biggest risk in the central collection is that the success or failure is Mai Mai.
Throwing Mai Bo Liang and the destiny of the Chinese collection does not talk, maybe you first need to understand a problem with some absurd: Who is Mai Boliang?
Did that make the savvy businessman "Mai Bo" "? Yes. That is the "wheat" of the employee's vibration arms "to be a world-class company"? Yes. But for investors, Mai Bille's most accurate identity should be - professional manager. If you add some emotional color, it should be "professional manager with entrepreneurial spirit".
"I have a team." Mai Bo Liang believes that this is difficult to imitate competitors, "business management experts, strategic management experts, risk management experts, establish this team, need time, need events, need to be worn." From 1991 From the year, the chairman of the company has replaced several, but the president is still Mai Bille. The management team is basically stable, which greatly guarantees the consistency of the company's medium and long-term planning and business ideas. "From the company's current governance structure, management's investment privilege is zero. The board of directors does not have a penny investment in management. We have a board of directors to authorize." The company's equity structure is also very good for corporate governance.
China Yuanyuan (China Ocean Transport Group Corporation) and China Merchants (China Merchants Container Industry Co., Ltd.) is two major shareholders of the Central Collection Group. As of the end of 2004, the COSCO held a 163.7015 million state-owned legal personnel, accounting for 16.23% of the full equity, and the investment promotion and the exact amount of equity were held. The remaining 30.04% are circulation A shares, 33.89% are circulation B shares. The equity scattering, there is no absolute shareholder, the state-owned stock, foreign shares and the shares share shareholders and the formation of equitations, and the operation is more standardized.
The mutual balances are therefore also reflected in the composition of the Central Board. In addition to three independent directors, 8 independent directors, the COSCO and investment accounted for two seats, Mai Boliang posted a seat.
Usually, people like to find a large shareholder to occupy a spider silk hust in the accounts receivable. However, it should be sure that the most common "one unique" situation with A-share state-owned listed companies is different, and the intensive "large shareholder occupation" insect soil is lacking.
Despite the question, it is clear that the intention is clear through the calculation of their sub-branches. Why do you want to increase profits? How to increase the profit? Is the migrating and possibly possible in the middle collection?
"What do we have to make so much money? What should I do next year?" Trouble. "The Chinese collective people don't think of what reasons to lose profits. Since 1996, China is already the world's first in the container industry. Is it discouraged for 69% of growth for investors?
"Why don't you increase this year's growth of 250% in two years, the average increase of more than 100%, which is more comfortable. It's not always able to play, "In the case of high growth, it will increase the profit, is it not dry next year?"
"I see, if you analyze the drive, the middle collection does not have the motivation of the induced profit, but there is a motive that conceals the profit." More investors do not solve the question.
The reporter learned that when the 2004 report in China, two of them have two funding - the provision of Cambodia and the southern part of the South, is made in the case of accountant barely agreed, and is considered "too conservative". move. The provision will undoubtedly reduce the profit. If you want to increase the profit, how will the intention to take the opposite move?
The question seems to be in the reverse - the migration of "concealing profits": "It is strange that the warranty of the CIMC Group in the first half of 2004 did not pay the title."
"This is not an abnormality. The customer's risk is always existent due to problems such as product quality, and it is in batches, once the risk of enterprises may face is very big. For the principle of robustness, the company must take the warranty. "Throw an explanation of the company, don't you say that the Chinese collection does not have an attempt to conceal the profit?
Is there any fake?
Because of the listing of A and B shares, it is necessary to audit its financial statements at the same time as two international and domestic accountants. Aunt, it is still not possible to form a barrier. "The upstream and downstream of the Chinese collection are well-known large companies, and their statistics are very clear." A fund manager said to the reporter.
At the end of last year, a total of 34 funds were heavy. "Can the Chinese collection not to be with the fund?" This is the reason for the question. "We have to be responsible for the money in your own pocket." The funds in the fund are fiercely refuted: "We can't deceive people. Again, at the same time, 34 funds are working together, this is really a 'bold hypothesis'." The agency even went to the bank throughout the community to check the Chinese collection funds.
Nowadays, Zhangjiagang, Santa Santa Santa Santa, who has also pretended to be a tank customer in the south before being acquired, and I feel that "the Chinese collection is indeed doing things," "" "I have to be responsible for myself."
In general, the purpose of listed company's induced profit is nothing more than hype stock. "The total assets of 15 billion yuan in China have made a lot of short-term investment to make the intersteration of the intersteration of their own stocks." Yu Qun. " It is understood that there is currently no additional plan for China.
"The market is fear of high psychological depression." "More than Huaxia Securities are also judged to the central collection." "The stock price and good performance of the market when the market is sluggish, and the investors have had a certain 'fear of high' psychology." Obviously, the increase in the performance does not further raise the stock price.
Although in the middle of the rumbler acoustic, the sound of the sound is ignored, but it has not been ignored.
Just five in the New Year, the company's management urgently convened the investor meeting and made meticulous communication. "Most small and medium-sized investors do not have professional analysis, lack of distinguishing ability. We have a responsibility to avoid non-objective reports to bring losses."
"Why is the financial expenses lowered", "the net assets of the minority shareholders decline in the year-on-year" major "issued" professional?
"People who have some understanding of the company have known that the loan interest rate is different, and the financial expenses will be a large piece."
"The general enterprises are a way to adopt contractual operations for most subsidiaries. These small shareholders take quantitative contracts, they have a small risk. Why is the net assets yield of minority decline? Maybe ask, Do you have any questions? "
It turns out that investors have not ignored those voices.
"Look at a company, you should look at two: When it is good to see the industry, it can hold the opportunity, earn more money than others - laugh at the best. Can it laugh when it is the worst? Finally. "You can be sure that the central collection makes people see it.
In the China Securities Market, can we find several companies like a Chinese collection so that shareholders have gained a rich return? From 1994 to 2002, the central collection of cash divided by 390 million yuan, with a total of 714 million yuan in the same period; from 1994 to 2003, cash dividends were 763 million yuan, and the cash rate reached 30.94%.
"Container is a semi-open market, all face-to-face deals, unlike a color TV to get it on the market. If we disclose every business to investors, what is our business? "This is the only embarrassment of the question of the question.
Central wheel
The intersection is moving the "highland" effect after entering the development to a certain degree.
"We have a premium in terms of product, there is premium in financing, premium in material procurement, premium in business cooperation, premium in mergers, including the premium, including attracting talents," Zheng Yuanhua told reporters: "We From South Korea's modern hands, two factories in Qingdao, the other party was $ 180 million, and later, he said 80 million US dollars. But the final collected is to buy 28 million US dollars. The other party talks the brand, the Chinese collection said brand I have You will take it back; the other party talks about technology, the Chinese collection said that I also have, you can also take it back. "
"Join the Chinese collection, they can get a better development platform. Do not join the gathering, they can only face the competition of the Chinese collection, but can they compete for the Chinese collection?" The concentrated container business has been in 23 years, unless Self-waste martial arts, the external power is hard to shake its industry status. Many people think that manufacturing is a sunset industry, but Mai Bille believes that China's manufacturing is precisely the most comparative advantage.
Zhanghua Bridge also has a view that the manufacturing industry has no investment value, because it is necessary to continue to invest in to have benefits. But for investors in the securities market, this company is not making money is the most important. "The port, the airport can indeed account for the mountain as the king, sitting on the benefits, but the manufacturing industry can do business without the country." Zheng Xianling said.
Mai Biliang also saw a "no national" manufacturing industry - semi-trailer manufacturing. His statement is: Give me 5 years, I will give you a world-class company.
High point or new starting point? When the investor issues a collection of questions, they look for answers on that is called "container" to the wheel.
