Author: dancewtwolf filing date: 2004-11-9 12:32:00
China seriously deviates from the root of real estate games:
Speaking of the bubbles of real estate, first define a concept about the bubble, that is:
The current demand for real estate is not bubble, we have 5-1 billion people need to live in the city.
Real estate bubbles are high housing prices and huge profits relative to the income of the people!
Internationally recognized housing prices are 3-6 times, China is currently 10-15 times!
1. From the government's unsaturated land supply system and land auction system and followed "business city" sports (can also be called circles), which determines the high price, profit and speculative speculative model of real estate.
China's current real estate policy is learning from Hong Kong. Through the planned moderate hunger control of land supplied, the Hong Kong and British government has continued to rise in Hong Kong's real estate prices in Hong Kong, so that this non-conventional rising momentum has been maintained for more than 20 years until 97 regression. Under this kind of artificial price, it finally created a pyramid scheme that was jointly participated in Hong Kong people. Directly directed the false prosperity of Hong Kong property market - the real estate industry has gradually become the leading industry in Hong Kong's economy, and economic models become a buyer. , Fried building, then sit on the appreciation of the real estate industry ...
China's current policy has nothing to do. More than 50 years ago, the land revolution and later people's communes made China's land became ownership ownership, since they were all ownership, citizens had the right to live and life. Our current policy is "operating the city" by officials, with low-cost farmers and state-owned land, and then sells "high hunger" high-priced or have a way or has a doorway. Developer, since the land of the rent is limited in the same period, then the stored commercial housing is also limited, leading to a considerable amount of seller! So there is a huge amount of business profit. So we don't want to develop the developer, don't say that the speculation is vicious. Saints: "The state has the road, poor, shame; there is no way, rich, rich, shame!" There is a chance to give, what rich and poor, not profitable, is a fool? !
The real estate providers shouted: "Our profits are not high, only 20%." I am! Even if your cry is really only 20%, the principle of large transactions should be low profit! Use the people of the people who master the people and the people of the people to make the people's money! Get a few plains, buy a few buildings, a year turn several times, the profit is 20%, 20% * x (x> 3). There are several large trades in the world, such a high profit, so fast turnover speed?
This decision, the so-called real estate bubble, is not a bubble end of the real estate development, but a large bubble end of profit. That is, most of the poor, contribute money to the rich people related to the development of real estate, producing a lot of rich foam! One thing can be seen that our rich has multiple bubbles: "Hunun Edition" in the "Hu Run Edition 2004 China's Mainland Baise List", the latest "rich" related to real estate, accounted for 40 %. Is this normal?
Our officials are desperately blowing a bubble ending for a lot of money, and will endanger throughout the country!
Now there is a new housing in the city, mainly: "First, official two, big, star three, private owner four, participate in the housing reform and the five, white-collar equals, etc. Higher people seven, fight parents relatives and friends, add bank loans
Young people under the remaining 35 years old, there is basically no housing, and some are also 70% of the loans. In fact, the seventh type above, the house is not at him. They have to eat in the future, to raise education children, be sick, to be medical, to raise their parents, but also to pension, do they still have money? ...... Our "Business City Sports" and real estate people, you earn, is not the profit of social development, is the hard-sweat of the people, sacrificing the long-term stability of education, medical, pensions, etc. The driving force of sustainable development is impossible for a long time. The role of economic law is ultimately unable to pass over, no matter whether the government is protected. According to the statistics, the Hong Kong property price has continued to fall from the highest peak in 1997, and the accumulated decline in 2003 has reached 65%, and the wealth of Hong Kong people has evaporated for 2 billion. The average loss of 26.7 million Hong Kong coins, negative The number of assets is 170,000. According to the average of 3.5 people per family, the population living in negative assets shadows in Hong Kong has taken 10% of the total population. Negative assets are not the most terrible. The most terrible is negative assets and unemployment or business. There is a news that this is a two-year formula for the Hong Kong and English government for 20 years. I believe that it is not a hole. Today, we have to go to this formula in the country, is it to verify its accuracy?
China has 70% of people need to live in the next few decades. Such a big market should indeed develop, but they have to squeeze the bubble. Otherwise, a large number of resources and profits will be hollow empty by a few people, and will eventually have an explosive bubble, which is more powerful than Hong Kong! When Hong Kong bubble is shattered, there is a central government and 1.3 billion people to do the backing. When Chinese bubble is destroyed, who is desirable? United States? Japan? They still can't wait to step on your feet!
Second, the existing payment of the 70-year property tax system accounts for about 15-30% of the entire property price.
Opening an enterprise is a month to pay a month, because the state knows that you have made any company to pay for 70 years, he doesn't dare to open!
What should I do if the government has received 70 years after receiving? What are you receiving later?
We pay for 70 years of tax, what we have for education, medical and pension, long-term development things.
In fact, these taxes have night, even if you have a little higher, you have no relationship, just like a bank loan, you have to let everyone develop. The market economy has so many years, I believe I don't say that everyone knows why every presidential election is almost in the United States, why should we give the company discount tax cut policy, this is not a current interest and long-term interests? Yes.
Most countries, housing prices, land prices and taxes, fees only account for 20% of prices, accounting for 73% of Jianan cost, profits account for only 7%. my country's current land price and tax, fee three major costs account for 50% of total cost, and the cost of construction is approximately 20% -35% of total cost, with a profit accounts for about 30%. So, we call internationally in the world. According to international, the normal housing price should be 50% below the current, and it is normal profit and tax level. Also just, multiplying the current rate income (10-15 times) by 50%, get 5-7.5 times, or is higher than the internationally recognized level, the difference between the Chinese urbanization process is treated as the psychological expectation of the Chinese urbanization process. Bar.
Third, China has been delayed urbanization process and urban and rural differences
China has implemented a 50-year account system and urban and rural differences, which have a large number of 5-1 billion farmers and semi-farmers (and their descendants) that need to be transferred in recent decades, and they have to enter the city in a relatively short period of time. The long-term expansion effect of the urban housing market, that is, Chinese real estate although there is bubble, there is still a back. However, the key issue is that we can't let too high real estate profits hollow out these people, we have to survive and develop, have education, medical care, social insurance, form a huge middle class, in order to guarantee The continued and stable development of society. China has consumed about 50% of cement in the world last year. In fact, from the average quantity, there are so many people in China to move to the city, not much. Is that the house is good? it is good! It's great and beautiful! The cause of the bubble is the house covered by these cement. This 5-1 billion people can't afford it, because the government and developers have a low price to exquisite their land, but with huge profits become high prices to sell them. The society did not give them a relatively small area, the price is relatively cheap house, so they have to stay in the slum in the slum in a year, their children's education, their pension and medical care, more than water Ethereal! Don't tell me, because the elite is just the top of the pyramid, the more coarse is the next layer, China has not formed an elliptical type (or olive, refers to the huge, the number of people accounting for middle class, such as Europe and the United States). If we do not change the current real estate policy, it will become one of the important factors that hinder the social structure of the ellipse. Jedao first
At the beginning of the Guanjing, Tai Zong's sergeant: "For the way, you must deposit the people. If the people will be in the body, the ordinary stocks must be in the abdomen, the abdomen is enough. If the world is, it must be a body, There is nothing to be angry, and the top management is chaotic and chaos. Everyone thinks that the person is not outside the foreign object, all of them are abstains into a disaster. If you want to have a taste, you want to play the sound, what you want Both, the loss is also large, the political affairs, disturbing the people ........
We used scissors to cut the flesh and blood of farmers. Today, we must deprive their last rights and land! In fact, you don't have to deprive it, they have left their hometown ....
The deformed real estate not only cuts the meat of urban residents, but also cuts away the meat of Hungry farmers, not only cutting the meat of education, but also cuts the meat of health and pension, and cutting the meat of other consumer industries. The entire national economy has moved to a dangerous and unstable fast lane ... you see, what is the surrounding houses, there are people who are exhausted in the exhaustion of the people .. .... We are not the most tragic living in the city. We have been well-educated, you can do a white-collar, continue with your own dreams. The most tragic thing is to lose the land and have been forced to go to the city from the land.
Fourth, the inequality of the media and the right to speak and the collective failing caused by it
Earlier, Western has a popular statement that 20% of people have 80% of wealth, and the remaining 80 people have only 20% of wealth. And this trend is still intensifying. China from one of the most average countries, rapidly evolving the biggest gap between the rich and gap, and our Kini has exceeded internationally recognized warning lines, and I believe it is not a news.
There is a Hong Kong media report that China's rich class has brought $ 24 billion in foreign funds every year to increase the gap between the rich and the poor.
The "Nanhua Morning Post" report said that in the past 15 years, the funds from China have been five times that of China's old-age, medical and social insurance deficits. For various reasons, the rich moves their property abroad.
A report of Merrill and Kelie said that China has reached 1 million US dollars last year, and does not include a house. We don't hate the rich, the problem is, the country should give everyone a chance to develop and wealth! During a certain period, our resources and wealth are always limited, and they cannot be concentrated in one or two so-called pillar industries, which will be tied!
Do you say that the Chinese is stupid, do you not know if you are tied? No, because people tied to the ticket no voice. There are many people with speech to do real estate companies and "business city sports" microphones. Don't tell me, look at yourself, there are several reports in the media in the media. You go to the online forum to see, there is no way to say that there is no such thing as the "a famous economist says that China's real estate is three times in the next 10 years". . And how many years are you struggling on the Internet? "Write very well, many people have seen, I have seen it, that is, I am teased by humorous and real language, and then seriously thinking, but I really want to cry. It really said that the voice of the people, but just in the forum, I haven't seen which media dare to make it out of the earth. At the end of the article I attach it.
There is a real estate tycoon that now China can buy a house is 5% of the rich, good, the media and the right to speak unequal, the real estate of the bubble, should have the sound of the rich. So what is the rest of 95% of people, we have already settled, who is talking to us? It is not only the "business city" official, not only the "business city", but also those experts who have the right to speak, plus the collective discriminant!
There are still some reasons for real estate bubbles, and I don't have much to say anything else! Everyone has criticized. My email is Dancewtwolf@163.com QQ: 12470235 Welcome Discussion
With regard to the consequences of the real estate bubble, everyone thinks that the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Hong Kong real estate bubbles, Japan real estate bubbles, that is the most direct example, many countries and regions have not completely get rid of the shadow. But more terrible is, in China, at present, the heavy pressure of housing, let us sacrifice education, sacrifice medical care, sacrifice their pension, sacrifice environmental protection, and sacrificed farmers who have faithful backing from the revolutionary period and founding countries ! The current real estate policy has been kidnapped in the bank, kidnapped the government, kidnapped people .......
At present, the government's management loans and limited land practices are not fundamentally solved. From the new approach, the price and even climbing results have been understood. To truly solve the problem of bubble, keep the real estate market's good sustainable development should start the following points:
1. Improve the land supply, the hunger supply caused by the monopoly of the land is the most fundamental source of real estate profits.
2. Implement the land subsidy system of citizen rational housing, combined with new rural land reforms, as a citizen's rights. Although the country's land transaction revenue will reduce the country's land transaction revenue, it is also a return of land transactions and the return of the land revolution. (You can implement the Bayu for different regions, and make the securities of the subsidy can be exchanged, establishing a municipal land subsidiary trading mechanism, according to the citizenship age, residential land and migration process, we have mathematician and economy Students, not afraid, don't understand.)
3. Reduce per capita housing tax (tax payment, may wish to take the occupation of tax rates to guide the market for multi-economic practical houses)
4. Control over the excess property profits. In fact, China's real estate is currently only a semi-market state. As long as the above three points have been solved, the real estate will be in the case of the buyer's market, the price will inevitably close to the actual needs, nor will we have a profiteering. wake up! Don't wait until 65% of the property depreciation knows you!
Don't believe, let's take a look at this fraud! , The topic is "How many years are you going to fight for a house? "Everyone can calculate their own income how many years can buy a house.
How many years are you going to fight for a house?
2004 at 16:06 on October 19 Author: aiansa Source: Sohu Cultural Square
I bought a real estate report yesterday, I quickly viewed it, my tongue didn't shrink in half a day. Shanghai's house prices have grown up. Second-hand housing, in the Shanghai Pudong Huanghua Road, actually sold to 10,000 yuan / square meter. That break, I have lived for a year, in my impression, it is a urban-rural branch, more dirty, every evening, from time to time, there are suspicious people to sway. Just one place, if you have a small set of two-bedroom and one hall, you have to have 1 million.
About money, I have no concept. Fortunately, I like thinking, I quickly changed, I think it is easier.
If I am a peasant, a person, there is an across place is not bad. One year two times, wheat, one corn, can earn 800 pieces in one year, plus raising a group of ducks, sell some duck eggs, estimated that up to 1000 pieces can be earned. I want to buy a sample in the suburbs of Shanghai, I have to eat unwell to cultivate for 1000 years. At that time, the communism should I realize?
If I am a worker, there is no laid, take 800 yuan in a month, don't smoke, don't drink, don't get married, don't eat. I am thirstying cold water, hungry and eats bad leaves, cold, picking sacks, in short, a penny does not flow, in front of the price does not rise, to buy such a house, have to work for 100 years. It is estimated that there is no factory to be such an old worker.
If I am a civil servant, it is very general, 2500 pieces a month, don't smoke, don't drink, don't eat, not corruption, don't accept bribes, don't use public funds, want to buy such a house (same, housing price does not rise), I have to take it for 33 years. It is estimated that I just bought a house, I have to retire, and it is very likely to die because of malnutrition.
If I am a writer, but I am not mistaken, every two words, I don't smoke, don't drink, don't eat, don't bother the literary girl, want to buy such a house (same, the price does not rise ), I have to write 20,000 words continuously, but also to ensure that the words are needed. If the conception, writing, with modifications, you can complete the 2000 words per hour, then you have to write 1000 hours, and write 2,000 pages on the Word document. I understand, why do people writing people to die? .
If I am a prostitute, the color is general, the average will harvest 200 pieces, I don't smoke, don't drink, don't eat, don't eat, don't raise little white face, I want to buy such a house (same, the price does not rise), I have to continue Pick up 5000 guests. If you pick up the guests (including statutory holidays) every day, you have to fight for 2,500 days, and the time is about 7 years. If I am a robbery, the means is general, my eyes are general, every time I start robbing 1,000 yuan, I don't smoke, don't drink, don't eat, don't find a woman, don't catch it, want to buy such a house (same, price Do not rose), have to continue to commit a few0 times, if the crime is written once a week, it has been continuously committed for 18 years.
If I am a businessman, I have a drink, but also smoke, drink it, eat, eat, I have sexually sick, night to raise Xiaomi, as long as I have this lesson, when the house is coming, I will pay the first time. I lift with the accomplices, not for two years, a few houses have been in hand.
I said this, I don't want to complain. I just want to say that this thing is a national resource, the primary function is to serve the people of this country. Under legitimate policies, add your own means, using national resources to earn money for themselves, this is not too big. Just, anything you must have. Any country, both poles are uncomfortable, not a good sign. When most people in a city are squeezed into the edge of the city, this is a kind of sin, and it is not two in the British circle.
We think about it again, how is the polarization differentiation formed? Take a look at the time limit of the purchase room, the answer will come out. A ordinary citizen, he worked hard, earned the poor money, take part by the motherland, take part by the real estate agent, and finally take some of the speculators, these two doctors want no differentiation It is also difficult. Think about those ordinary people who have been struggling in the city, almost most people have heavy housing loans. This is the fate of most people.
I am not an unscrupulous country that cannot obtain benefits from the land. However, the people of the public are taken to the people, and it is used by the people. If you got these income, you can't guarantee that most people live in a satisfactory house, then this "taking", it also gains ineffective straightness. Perhaps, I think this idea is a bit angry. Just, watching the news in the first two days, saying that the Constitution has improved, to protect the private property of citizens. I think this is still a causal relationship - premise, you first have to protect most people have a certain amount of property. If everyone is tired for a set of houses, do you have any good protection? In the world, there is no absolute legal law, and the ability of material control determines its trend. I can't say that ordinary people will not benefit, however, in this decree, the biggest benefit, is most still a few people?
