China is becoming an increasingly important topic in the world economy. Statistics from the international state show that in the past 25 years, China's GDP has an annual growth rate of 8.6%. Dan Xue, Professor Dingchu, Professor, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, in an interview with the China Business Times, this is the only big country in human history to maintain such a continuous growth in such economic growth in such a long time. In this process, some weak links in China's economic development must attract enough attention.
Seriously relying on foreign technology
In recent years, some senior people in the US political circles and the business are increasingly proportional to China's export share, especially the proportion of high-tech products in China's export products. Worry. They believe that the proportion of technical content in China's export products may indicate that there is a modern business country similar to Japan in East Asia.
Ding Xueliang said that existing studies have shown that these concerns are inadequate. This is mainly reflected in: First, China's current exports of high-tech and industrial products are mainly dominated by China's local companies but is dominated by foreign companies. Second, China's local industrial company is deeply rely on imports of advanced industrial countries such as United States, other Western countries and Japan, in terms of design, most important components. Third, China's companies still take rare measures so far to absorb their relatively high technologies from abroad, and lack effective way to absorb and spread those local companies that buy in. These make China's local companies can be in the near future, it is difficult to become in Western countries.
Business challenge opponents in technology.
From this perspective, Dan Xue believes that China's development model in the past 25 years is completely different from the development model shown in Asia's four small dragons in their economic high-speed growth. China's technical external dependence limits China's advanced industrial powers in the world's leading positions of high-tech Western countries.
Dan Xuejiang believes that the gap between China and developed countries in technology innovation and R & D capabilities is shown in lack of independent innovation capabilities, which seriously rely on foreign technology, especially the research investment in Chinese enterprises, and technically "backward, introduction, and then backward, Rehabilitation "loop situation.
"In 2003, the research and development funding of national key enterprises only account for 1% of these companies, far from the 3% to 5% of the Chinese government, and 7% of the Ministry of OECDs greater China's top 500 companies have been the introduction technology for so many years. Some companies have more than 12: 1 in technology introduction costs and R & D costs than 12: 1 in the highest peak, that is, spend 12 yuan to introduce 1 yuan digestion. In the IT industry, there is a very strange phenomenon: even if there is one or two Chinese local companies develop a good technology, other related companies in China have rarely buy their technologies to these companies, which leads to China's own development. Very good technology is not promoted and used in our own peers.?
Even in terms of purchasing foreign advanced technology, Di Xueliang said that China and Asia's four small dragons are completely different. During the economic high-speed development period, the four small dragons usually spent 40% -50% of the money to buy advanced countries' soft technology, and China used to buy soft technology in the past, usually no more than 10%, 90%. Money is usually purchasing hardware devices.
Effective and strategy of allocating resources
Foreign dependence on sex resources
Ding Xueliang believes that the wealth creation mechanism of wealth is another weak link in China's economic development. in
In the past 25 years, China GDP continues to grow in an average annual rate of 8.6%. At the same time, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong shows that in 1993-2003, the return on investment in mainland China companies is only 24%, while the United States, US companies The return on investment is 84.7%.
"This is a paradox. The reason happens because China has the inefficiency of allocation resources, which is mainly based on the bad debt rate of the National Bank. Now the lowest estimate of China Bank's bad debts is 45%, this is the country with the highest bad debts in the middle of the world's major economies since the 20th century.?
"It is because the China economy maintains that high growth rate, and it is as serious inefficiency, so you can see completely different predictions in the bookshelf in the world. Prediction. Dan Xue, believes that the weak links of China's economy are also reflected in the external dependence of strategic economic resources. In 1990-2004, China's demand for oil increased by 7% in the year. In this growth rate, 20 years later, China's daily consumption is roughly equivalent to the current amount of the US consumption. And China's local oil storage has been found in accordance with the current amount of mining.
"More serious is that China's strategic economic resources are together with the serious consumption of these resources. In 2003, the energy consumed by GDP per unit of China is 10 times in Japan, 5 times the United States, Canada 3 times the same.?
Ding Xueliang said that the above-mentioned weak links in China's economic development also appeared in different degrees of development in other countries. If there is no big conflict, these weak links can be gradually solved in a long-term development process of a country. But worrying is that in the competition between countries between the second half of the 20th century, similar weaknesses have been fully utilized by competitors' competitors.
"Before the President of Ren, the mainstream society in Western generally believes that the Soviet integrated national strength and economic scale is 60% -70% of the United States, but the Zhifang's thinks believe that the Soviet economic scale is actually only one-third of the United States. One quarter. Because it is not efficient. For example, each unit production price is 3 times the West, like the current China, in which the consumption of important raw materials is 5 times the Nordic. In addition, the Soviet Union economy The key equipment and techniques in the growth process mainly rely on imports from Western countries.?
"Reagan's think tanks have been disconnected, and the Soviet Universal economy must support such a huge military expansion policy. Therefore, the Rigan has developed the overall of the Cold War through the war but through competition. Strategy. For example, in the early 1980s, the United States saw the Soviet foreign exchange income relied on oil exports, in order to make the Soviet exchange capacity reduction, the United States intentionally and the Saudi Arabian government reached an agreement, so that Saudi Arabia increased oil exports, This reduces global oil prices, which causes the Soviet foreign exchange income to lose $ 15 billion a year.?
Di Xueliang believes that China's current economic situation is much better than the Soviet Union, but in some aspects, there is also a very similar place, it should cause sufficient attention.
How far is the goal of the Chinese nation from revival?
For the rapid development of China's economy, there are many evaluations in China. Ding Xuejiang believes that the great achievements of the Chinese economy have been defined in the past 25 years to be more accurately reunited.
Until the 1870s, Di Xueliang said that China's total economic volume is greater than the United States, which is the world's first economic big country. If only the components of industrial output in industrial output in the world, China's industrial output accounted for 19.7% of the world in the 1860, while the United States at the time only 9%. Therefore, in this sense, it is more accurate to rise today, the revival of China's economy is rising rather than rising.
Ding Xueliang believes that the current rise of China is only an economical rising rather than a comprehensive rise. Because China's strongest era in the past is not only to provide the world's most product, but also provides a variety of soft power elements for humans. This soft power feature includes political systems, legal systems, administrative systems and even technologies, culture, art and language.
"For example, the Tang Dynasty is one of the two, three times in the history of the Chinese nation, and one of the three times. In the West, the History Master, the political, economic and military system established by China, etc., but also become a Tang The labeling of the generation continued to deeply affect Chinese civilization until the 20th century in many ways, and also affected the countries in East Asia, such as Japan, North Korea and Vietnam provide them with the basic system.?
"In the northeast, southwest and south of China, is some stable independent countries in China, and they have a fairly developed culture that is influenced by China, which has been formed at that time with China's dominance.? Ding Xueliang said, from this point of view, from modern China, China, no matter how great achievements in the economy, it is far from reaching the overall civilization of Chinese history. This overall civilization must be reflected. In terms of soft forces, models must be provided around the system, culture and art.
"People often refer to modernity when discussing modernity, but China has many early modernity in the Tang Dynasty. These early modernity include the fusion of the nation, and the mixed-boring can become China's emperor and queen, minority The first generation of immigrants to China can become China's heavy ministers and general, including China's comprehensive external opening, absorbing high-tech talents around the world, and the multicultural policies at the time.
