Chapter 6 - Uncertainty of "Dance" and Bear

zhaozj2021-02-08  411

Corporate culture - no matter what the word means - to make a heavy obstacle for people who want to become a risk manager, the most important thing is to treat uncertainty - even if the most common work is also possible, may also encounter Uncertainty obstruction. One words, this attitude is:

You can make mistakes, but you can't be sure.

If you have a product, you will be passionate about the rules, congratulations, you are miserable.

This rule means: maybe you can't achieve a promise date - even will be greatly postponed, but before this day, you must unswervingly guarantee that it can be delivered on time, and must not show slightly. In such an enterprise, "pre-recognizing the possible failure" is an unforgivable death crime. As long as you don't commit death, any failure can be tolerated. Another interpretation of this rule is that if the project is delayed, you can request forgiveness after the event, but must not be licensed beforehand.

If the corporate culture does not allow the existence of uncertainty, you will not be able to engage in risk management. You can learn what you should do, but you can't actually manage risks. This seems to show you how to use one hand to pop up an eight-degree symptom on the piano, but your hand is not big enough, can't play these two keys simultaneously.

This limit may gradually suffer from a infectious disease called selective myopia. Many projects are shattered by this disease, and their common symptoms can only see small problems. Huge problems may latenner - these problems are so important that any healthy project should put them in the positive of the field of view - but the victims of selective myopia are not visible.

"Hey, you said that train"

The symptoms of selective myopia patients are obvious: they carefully do not let themselves tripped by the railway, but they can't see the train. The risk is identified, the risk list is released, and the risks mentioned in the project status report, and the risk relief strategy has also been approved. The risk has been monitored and tracked. If you just check the risk list and record, you will think that this project is very low: all the risks listed are small troubles of chicken fry garlic. Day revenue, risk tracking has no newly, until a day project is suddenly canceled, and it is usually a cruel court proceed, and the peeling bone of the project body. There are several examples below:

Ø Case 1. The contractor develops a monitoring system for customers. Everything seems to have a bamboo. Some issues are proposed, but they are all managed on the risk list, without any failure. Subsequently, the final system is delivered to the customer and is rejected in the acceptance test. We all know that only the system specifications approved by both parties will be put on. But in this project, there is no specifications to get the customer's recognition. In the project history, no one has added such a risk: "The things we have developed have not been officially recognized."

Ø Case 2. Two companies have just merged and need to develop a new software system. The contractor plans to use a set of software modules for a solution provider, and make some customization, as a new system for merged enterprises. The package is bought, and the new hardware device is also installed. The risk is listed, and the project schedule is also held as scheduled. From the day from the project, the customer continues to emphasize: Since the business peak of the company is the labor day * to Christmas, the new system or other temporary solution must be in place before September. Although the customer continues to repeat this day like a spell, "We may not be able to complete the development of new systems before September one month" has never been in the risk list or project progress report. There have been anything - this is terrible, so that the project group thinks, I don't want to think. I don't know, I seem to have been over, the Labor Festival has passed. Then Thanksgiving ***, Christmas has passed. In January of the following year, the CEO of the client company canceled this project and drove everyone's owner, and a paper complaint made them a court. Change

TDM: I have been in person with a lawsuit, and I have been fortunate to see the information left by the failed project. Many things have been wrong, but the fact that the most deadly mistaken from a "Article 8" **** subparage: they promised too many things, and finally overwhelmed, one left - this home Small companies have a good news, no news.

Interestingly, this project has a complete risk list. We browse the various versions of the risk list one by one, from the first day of the project to the previous day to cancel, and surprised: In the initial stage of the project, "Article 8 'subcaptor may be escaping" is clearly written On the risk list, then this clause was removed, and there was no longer appeared.

This is also a form of selective myopia, but it seizes afterwards. Obviously, see such a potential risk, management is frightened. As long as it appears on the risk list, the big boss will not give them a good look. So they order a few poor guys: "You manage this risk, you must control it, so we can put it from the risk list next week."

Fortunately, we have a vaccine

What exactly causes this bad disease that "can't see the train"? We have not successfully separated viruses, but there is enough suspicion. Perhaps these organizations have no sufficient courage to say "disaster" two words. They said self-deception: "We have arranged for all the risks." In fact, they just pay a part of them: there is already the part of the solution.

For companies that have already been selective myopia, may have been rescued; but for enterprises that have not been ill, they have a significant vaccine. The vaccine must be inoculated before any risk management work. At the first risk identified brainstorming meeting, you should give all people to prevent the needle: They want them to say any of the disasters that can be thought. Don't rush to start risk management, first let them think more about disasters. Forced yourself to say "failure", "rejection" and "cancel". (If you try to say these words, you can't open your mouth, you have died, you should seek professional help.) If you can say these words, try again to talk about them. Then, return to your disaster list, consider what the situation may cause these disasters, and consider what risk may trigger these situations. Now, you already have the first risk list, and the risk here may change the future.

In Chapter 14 of this book, we will continue to discuss this risk discovery technology, detail its process and some tips. However, now we only need to keep in mind the core of this technology: Don't worry about the little concerns of tightness, declare war to your nightmare; rebuild from the results to the reasons, find out the risk of the project. The train is taking you with you, more careful. * Translator Note: Labor Day, US National Festival, the first Monday in September.

** Translator Note: ARBOR Day, a state of the United States, usually in four, May.

*** Translator Note: Thanksgiving Day, the last Thursday of November.

**** Translator Note: Article 8 of the California Labor Regulations (Title 8) stipulates that the government must subcontract a part of the procurement projects to minority or women. Since these subcontractors are under contracting contracts due to legal care (rather than economic or technical factors), people use a slightly ridicule that "Article 8" such as "Article 8".

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