Tom Demarco
On April 11, 1876, London. We stand on the Groven Square, and time is 10 o'clock in the evening. On our surroundment, the sidewalk of the square is a gentleman of the Victorian Times, wearing a high-end dress, wearing a high-top hat, walking from all directions to the Grove Hotel's Richtime. With them, we have entered the conference hall above the hotel. Here, the metaphysics of the London Elite Molecule will begin once a month.
Members of the Society include the poet Alfled Dingni, the Prime Minister William Grandton, Biologist Thomas Hurley, Cardinal Manning, Politician Arthur James Balfrie ... All, The essence of London intellectuals. As in the past, the theme tonight is still philosophical. Before the meeting was officially started, people were talked about three or five into groups to continue the discussion of the last meeting. I have gone from them, we can constantly hear the words of presence, epistemology, and skepticism. Among them, some discussions are particularly enthusiastic.
The room is filled with a wonderful tension, because today's speaker is a new member who just joined the Society - William Jinton Kriford. Kryford is a Logic and Mathematics professor at the University of London, a famous traitor, an atheist, and likes to argue. At the same time, he is also the youngest member of the Metunology Society so far.
According to the tradition, each new member must prepare a papers, and read the other members when the first attendance will be held. Kryford prepared the paper is "the ethics of faith" - do not talk about content, this topic has already known: this must be a wonderful article.
In fact, it is ended that there are half of the rooms in the room, and the people in the room expressed their protests in anger. The secretary should share a copy of the speech to each participant, but he refuses to do this. Others have their own attitudes: someone cheers Kryford, and some people want to put him down the podium. The air in the room is almost boiling, and the whole picture is a bit ... not so the UK.
This "ethics of beliefs" said something, can the elites of these society are so embarrassed? In this article, Kriford claimed that the choice of beliefs should not be tried from ethics. Your belief may induce you unmthical behavior, and whether the morality of behavior - the words of Kriford - depends on whether you have the right to believe what you believe.
He raised such an example: A ship owner will send his immigrant ship to the sea, and the passengers are full on board. He knows that this ship is very old, and it is not very good at the beginning, so he is very worried that this ship can safely complete the sailing. However, after some struggle, the owner is still overcome, convince yourself: A more than one sailing will not have any bad things. After all, this ship is also a long time, no matter how bad weather encounters, it can always go home safely. So, how can this time?
So, this ship was in the sea, then she was sinked into the sea floor with all passengers.
"What should we say to this person?" Kriford asked, then gave his own answer:
Of course, I have to say that he has a strong sense of death for those people. It should be admitted that he did sincerely believe that this ship is secure, but his belief since the sincerity of himself can't help him, because he has no right to believe in this weak evidence. He is not honest by patient investigation, but because he kills all his doubts. In the end, he thought that the ship did not sink this, but he was only intentionally, and he carefully induced his conclusions, he must be responsible for it.
Subsequently, Kryford returned to the beginning of the story and made a little modification on the end. If the ship is finally carried out safely, it will reduce (or even exclude) the crime of the owner?
never. Once the behavior is completed, it is wrong to be equivalent to being fixed, and it is impossible to be active or evil consecutive. Regardless of the boat or not, the owner will not be innocent. He can only be evil and have not been discovered. For the wrong problem, only the root of the faith, and the content of the belief is not related to the content of the believer; only is related to the way of belief, and what is related to the beliefs; only whether he has the right to present the faith from the inner evidence. Also related to the faith, it is finally proved to be true or false.
Before Kriford, there was such a view: beliefs never be placed under the ethical light; as long as you like, you can believe what. You can even believe that there is no possibility, just like the white queen in the "Alice Hood in the world". When Alice believes that "people can't believe in impossible things", the Queen replied:
"I guess you just lack exercises ... When you are so big, I will use half an hour to believe in impossible things every day. Ah, sometimes I can even believe in six impossible things before breakfast."
However, for software project managers, "I can't believe in six cases before breakfast" seems to be unpredictable - we always believe in a variety of impossible things, such as In a short period of time, the project is completed with a very low budget and extremely high efficiency.
When doing this, we have no difference between the owner of the ship that is confident to his own ship. Undoubtedly, as a manager of the software project, you must have done such a thing. This may be because of the eggs of others, for example, your boss will ask you to complete a project before Christmas - only give you three people. Of course, you will say doubt: Is this time enough?
"That is why I want to select you to manage this project." The boss said to you.
Things are so fixed: You accept this job, accept the challenge, and prepare to accept honors ... But you must first believe this schedule, that is the price you have to pay. Finally, you said hard: "I can do it." Then you are beginning to constantly consolidate your belief. Of course, can it be Christmas? why not? There is still less time for other items, isn't it? Not long, you are already full of confidence. Maybe time prove that your confidence is unfounded, but at least now, you are very certain: you can complete the task on time.
At this time, you should recall the question of William Jinton Kryford. Yes, that is what you believe, but if you have the right to believe? Do you have the right to believe in the evidence?
Just believe that you have the right to believe in things, this is risk management. In the end, the core of risk management is the "ethics of the belief" in Kriford - although the existence of uncertainty makes the situation, risk management requires every belief that each belief must accept ethical torture. It will remove your work (such as software projects). In addition to "I believe in six cases before breakfast", you can also have another - wise-choice.
