A sudden macro-regulation, so that my country's large number of small steel plants were discontinued, and the total amount of iron mines in imported to the shore was approximately tens of millions of tons, stacked in various ports along the coast, push it out, causing backlog. The price of raw materials is dramatic, and many importers and production are losses. Jiangsu Iron Project has thrown more than 20 billion, and it is halfway, how to clean up the residue. The macroeconomic regulation of China is so big, the impact is not the domestic economy, as well as the mine owners, ship owners, and a series of suppliers that are preparing to invest in new projects. How to get in the next step in China? I am talking about it here. The first is to propose this concept of civil and steel economy. China is currently in the stage of civil engineering economic development, and even have not entered the oil and economic phase. In such a stage, the Chinese economy is a weight economy, investment economy, can not bypass, and cannot exceed it. At present, there is a certain number of misunderstandings on China's economy, and the key is that everyone did not recognize the stage characteristics of my country's economic development. First, China really walked through the historical stage of "buying also beads"? When I first set off a network economy in 2001, I greeted a pot of cool water. I wrote the article. "In the next 10 years, China is still in the e economic period of the civil and steel, China's ordinary people will not If you eat, you have the basic demand, you will go online to play high-tech when you are still not satisfied. This sentence is widely circulated online, and a search can find a few hundred. In terms of import and export trade, I also advocate the commodities of the ordinary people in our ordinary people, and raise the fashionable luxury products. My point of view has caused some scholars' criticisms. For example, Professor of Xu Yuqing in Canada has written an article entitled "Don't buy a Pearl" to criticize my import and export trade. Professor Xu may be a balance to my view, but I still have to point out: the reason why someone bought the beads, because China has a large number of people who don't "bead", jewelry may It is something that can't be used in the middle, so they are never useful to use wooden boxes instead of beautiful and good things. This phenomenon is caused by imbalance in China's economic and social development. Mr. eating a foreign meal may have no profound understanding. We have to further analyze China's economic situation and see what we need to "椟" more need to be "beads" in this historical stage. If we call wood, iron ore, copper, aluminum, called "椟", call high-tech-type products as "beads", then through the most recent import and export price, people can The more you see the things that the eloquet of the slag, the more price increase the biggest price. The spot price of imported iron ore has doubled, and all product prices related to civil steel oil are rising. And those high-tech products have not fluctuated significantly. The price reflects the degree of demand, the higher the increase, and what is the most needed in the market. This is the current reality of China's economy. You said that high-tech is most important, inflation is present in production materials and energy fields. The farmers' crops in one county in Hebei Province, the city, not far from the city, the woods are cut, almost open the ground, just to dig the iron ore that can sell money. I have never seen the mineral resources in China. This county is located in the northwest of Beijing. Beijing has also expected the wood vegetation from the woods to prevent the sand. I didn't expect Xin's hard to plant so many years of wood, and the local farmers made a few iron blocks for a few iron blocks. The woods are chopped. What does China need? Look at the active fact, don't you understand? Maybe the Beijing people looked at the woodland that was cut by the stump, and for the local farmers, what he needs is not the same as you. There is no significance of farmers who have not solved those who have not been solved.
This thing is best to reflect the phenomenon of "buying also beads" in China. Second, face the stage of industrialization and historical development in China: the historical stage of the civil engineering economy, high consumables, high-pollution! China does need to have thousands of rooms in Guangsha, the cold of the world, and the scholars' views have such a big deviation, mainly what they look at the problem. China has indeed a small number of people have lived on life with the people of developed countries, but at least 80% of the population are still in the initial industrialization and modernization. During this period, the people's most demanding still meet the basic eating happiness. If the efforts of the 1980s and 1990s, the Chinese people have gone to meet and wear, then enter the 21st century, the main goals of my country's economic construction began to enter the housing and transportation, real estate and cars have already been Undoubtedly, it is the leading product of my country's economy. However, the economy of the RV era has a very different difference in the economy of eating the era, that is: the economy of this era is a high energy consumption, high consumable, high pollution economy. This historical development stage requires a large number of production materials and energy products, in a sentence, civilian steel economy is piled up with a large number of steel, cement, non-ferrous metals, wood, coal, oil and other mineral resources. Any developing country must be developed in this stage. The civil engineering economic stage is a hardware stage of a national economic construction, and there is no software role in the construction of hardware. I am in "Who is paying for this wave of inflation? "I have already said in the article, I have solved the problem, the next thing is the housing issue. If the per capita housing is less than 30 square meters, China's real estate heat can't get it. The per capita housing of some cities has now reached 18 square meters, and this figure is far less than enough. Because Chinese society is developing unbalanced, the rich housing per capita can reach 100 square meters, still have a large number of poor people without a house and lashing. Therefore, Chinese towns and rural houses have to be covered. This wave of residential heat is at least 10 to 20 years. After building a residential community, it is necessary to repair the road, energize, water, open, ventilated facilities, etc., and the residents have to engage in the house, buy, buy furniture and home appliances. Therefore, this wave of civil steel economy construction is estimated to last for 15 to 20 years by real estate faucet. Why do you say that? This is because China is a very unbalanced country, and the coastal developed areas are saturated, and the civil engineering economy will transfer in mainland. In particular, my country is still a serious lag of urbanization, and the arrears left in the 1980s and the 1990s need to come to the 21st century. In my country, if you break the household registration fan, from the 1980s, you will pay attention to the peasants into the city. Today's urbanization rate will not be so low. It is because of the powerful inertia of the planning economy, making my country's urbanization tasks still arduously placed in front of it. If 200 million farmers can transfer 200 million farmers into urban residents in the next 20 years, China's urban area and residential area will increase 1/3 of today's area. This requires a lot of steel, wood and concrete. China does need to need a million in Guangsha, and the world is full of cold. The second cause of such a high demand for civil steel is the main division of labor. my country has become a world processing plant, and is a primary product processing plant. The processing industry and manufacturing we are engaged in high consumption, high consumables.
Developed countries will transfer such industries to our country, which has increased the demand for energy and raw materials in this historical period. Although we consume 30% of steel, coal, only 3. 5% of the world GDP, but this is inaccurate with GDP according to exchange rate statistics. In fact, every time China is exported to a US dollar to abroad, the final resulting sales value is estimated to be more than 10 times. That is to say, China has exported $ 450 billion last year, and the final sales estimate of the international market is estimated to be between 4-5 trillion. This number is much higher than the proportion of GDP. According to this method, the development cost of my country's economy is not as high as Mr. Ma Kai and Yao Jingyuan, so scary. Therefore, China's civil engineering economy is a long way to go, and Founded! China must have enough ideological preparation and patience to welcome this challenge. Third, the characteristics of the era of civil steel economy: high investment rate and a large number of foreign resources, here, I must first put forward different opinions on Mr. Mai, director of the National Development and Reform Commission. Comrade IMK, in 2003, my country used 54% of cement, 34% of steel, 30% coal, 7% of oil, and creating approximately 3. 5% of GDP, which was exempted too much. Resource. In fact, Mr. Ma Kai neglected the stage of my country's economic development. Saving energy and improving the utilization rate of resources is one thing, and the civil engineering economic stage is another thing. The development phase of this historical period in my country determines the characteristics of national economies, high consumables, high pollution. Once crossing this, my country's economy will definitely enter the low-energy and low consumables like other developed countries. Therefore, there is a high energy consumption and high investment rate in this historical period, and it is not a panic at all, and this phenomenon is completely normal. The problem is how China overcomes the shortage of domestic resources, and reasonably uses foreign resources. This is the big event that China is worth studying and paying today. First, the first characteristic of civil steel economy: high investment rate. Any country is experiencing this stage, it is an era of high investment. Mr. Zhang Jun, Zhang Jun, Shanghai Fudan University, quoted Mr. Yang Ze's words in "In fact, the deterioration of investment efficiency" said: "In 1960-1985, each emerging industrialization economy has experienced investment in the stage of GDP ratio, From 1960 to 1980, Taiwan's investment and GDP ratio increased by double, and South Korea rose twice, while Singapore rose three times. "Today China's investment growth rate is 4 times that of GDP growth rate, than any one The country may be high, but this is strange! Is there so many machining trade and overseas manufacturing? Is there an international division of labor like China today? China has a higher investment growth in these years, it is worth a strange! Second, the second characteristic of civil and steel economy is to widely utilize external resources. From the history of world economic development, any developed country, when it is in the historical period of civil steel economy, it uses foreign resources as much as possible to make up for the shortcomings of domestic resources. For example, after Japan, after World War II, most of the tropical rainforests of Southeast Asian countries, cutting these countries now have no wood to export.
After the steering oil economy from the civil engineering economy, the United States has begun to use the Middle East oil in the 1940s. For more than half a century, the United States consumed most of the oil exported in the Middle East. Japan is not willing, then hosted. We reached your eyes to the old capitalist country United Kingdom, Victoria Queen's British economist Jevans wrote with joy: "North America and Russia's plains are our corn, Chicago and Odessa are Our granary, Canada and the Baro countries are our timber forest, Australia has our shepherd farm, and Argentina and North American western grassland have our cattle, Peru sent it silver, South Africa and Australian gold flow to London , Indians and Chinese people plant tea ... "It can be said that there is no use of world resources, and there are no one in developed countries in the world to develop smoothly. However, when China has entered the civilian steel economy, the world environment has changed greatly, which is the relatively sufficient natural resource that year. However, as far as the current world energy resources, China can also catch the last bus. In terms of iron mine, this is a market that has been fooled for more than a decade. It is only a year in the last year. Under the moment of China's economy, there has been a vitality and prices have risen. If China is steady in the pace, this mineral resource in the world can support at least in the economic stage of China's cross-civil engineering. The problem is how China uses foreign resources. It is manufactured in China to make economic bubbles, so that the price of the international market has exhibited dramatic fluctuations, or the development of steady, and the importation is imported? In addition, if it is necessary to pay a lot of purchases from abroad, is it necessary to always pay the currency value? Is it necessary to adjust if the export does not consider the development strategy of importing? Here, I have to pay attention to the new development strategy. Fourth, China should not go to the old road of the businessism, China wants to get rid of small farmers, 10% of the economic growth rate is not high, China cannot follow the old road of businessism, mainly the country's situation has undergone big Variety. China has become a resource lack, and the ecological environment has been destroyed by the transition. Domestic resources have already affected the heavy responsibility of the development strategy of the businessism. The development model of the old family of heavy businessincinal countries is desperately consumed to consume domestic resources, cut trees, digging mountains, excavation, taking domestic resources to export gold a class of precious metals. Today's China has no ability to dig again, natural endowment has been exhausted, only open the door to use foreign resources. This requires a reasonable entry and exit mechanism and development strategy. At present, half of my country needs oil and iron ore need to be imported to meet, and wood is greater, and the proportion of these products on foreign dependence on international market is increasingly larger. Therefore, China is going to formulate long-term international market strategic planning, and it is still not like this still a lot of spot trade. It is like a large product such as iron ore and crude oil, and my country must sign long-term order and delivery contracts with foreign suppliers. This requires a stable economic growth rate in China, can't be hot. In the first 20 years, my country's development mode is typically in exchange for economic growth and economic development by consumed domestic resources and destroying domestic ecological environments. In the 1980s, my country was exported to domestic local local products and energy resources to sacrifice domestic resources and ecological environments for foreign exchange. After the mid-1990s, my country's processing trade has made great progress, and manufacturing has certain export capabilities.
But now I now look at our national strength, the international competitiveness of manufacturing products is still inadequate, and the processing trade is still an important means of exchange for foreign exchange. The cheap labor is still the only resource in my country that can be unlimited and unlimited. However, the inexpensive labor competition is not long-lasting. China is going to go forward in the manufacturing area as soon as Japan, so that manufacturing products have become the main export products and exchange export products, which can form a benign domestic and foreign import and export cycle. , Imported foreign energy and mineral products, export processing products. In addition, China should also catch up with the service industry, becoming the export big country of service products like India. It should be appreciated that the civil engineering economy in any country is staged and will not last long, China is no exception. Once this stage, my country's steel production, energy production and demand may fall. However, in the near history, we have to do full ideological preparation to engage in civil engineering economies, to formulate the right development strategy to deal with civilian steel economy era. It is not like Xiaobong, just think about these three acres of two points in his home, there must be an international concept, and meet a new era that has never had. The Chinese is not to turn over, the key is that the mind can not update and innovate. In addition, for economic growth, there is currently a state in my country, and 10% of the growth rate is not high. After the National Party in the 1930s, the economic growth rate of my country in 1930 and 1937 was 12%. Reviewed many countries in history, the United States has grown in the 1930s, and the United States has grown in the United Kingdom. The rate has reached 200%. The key to China's economic development is to maintain a balanced high economic growth, don't go big down, acceleration and slowing down. Otherwise, such a huge economy is hot and hot, making adverse effects on the whole world. The Chinese economy is also like the US economy today, sneezing, and all the world has to catch a cold. 5. The current wave macroeconomic regulation should be appropriate. To transfer the economic hotspot to the field that should be hot, if you spend money on migrant workers, the farmers, the poor, ecological environmental protection, for the current macroeconomic economy Regulation, I think it is only necessary and can be considered as serious as possible. At present, my country's economy is actually a cold and cold, and a part of the field is in a field of deficiency, fever, and is closely related to the broad masses of the people. Shanghai's house price rose by 30% in the year, what is the more general ordinary people in China? I have seen some places in Guangdong that some commercial housing grants are increasingly high, which is exactly a luxury house for rich consumption services. However, for those thousands of work, they are still squeezing in the work shed, and six or seven people live in a stuffy and hot room.
