Preface:
I have been paying attention to Tencent has been many years. In 2000, there was more than one review and predicting Tencent's article in the community in Wisecast. According to some Tencent's friends, it also attaches certain attention within their company, but Said to sweat, about Tencent's development trend and income channel, Caoz's prediction and suggestions were not marginal. At that time, Caoz, the sensitivity of commercial smell and market, of course, today Caoz Still is slow to all "make money", but this does not hinder Caoz to continue to have a big fortune, at least, slow Caoz and quite smart circles, in the performance of IT prediction, it seems not even more bad.
Tencent development review
Digital things, online are found, caoz doesn't say much, interested friends can visit Ai Rui consulting website (http://www.iresearch.com.cn), where Tencent has developed for several years Report, with detailed data and chart, it is still worth seeing.
Tencent has also been quite quite doubts in the development process. Before their income mode is not determined, most industries are dismissive for Tencent's "garbage traffic", even if Ma Huadong has to make the equity, depending on South Africa. A company blood transfusion to maintain the company's continuous investment, but in just a few years, first, the client advertising stripe resource solves the problem of eating, and then solves the development problem through mobile proliferation, Tencent has become the highest value of domestic value. the company.
Tencent development prospects
Now Tencent has become a terrible force in the domestic Internet. It is a terrible thing, not just its performance, its user group, is it interested, it is not good, Tencent cuts the portal, During the year, it is still in the country. It is still in the rise; Tencent cuts to the online game, covering the bodies of the old name for a few months, the number of online people has repeatedly high; Tencent has made a client search, the new version of the client is not completely Promotion, Tencent web search volume has quietly ranked to the fourth position in China, secondary to Baidu, Google and 3721. According to this trend, each network will feel fear of Tencent. At least few portals have begun to act, but whether it is uc, bubble, search Q, and Tom-Skype, 263 E, have already Certification, shake Tencent QQ, almost unfinished tasks.
What will Tengxun do? It can be said that relying on the huge unparalleled client resources, all he believes that it can bring convenience to the public, and bring interests to themselves, they are interested in trying, this is almost challenged all the directions. Volkswagen's network company, terrible thing is that Tencent really has such a strength to do such a crazy try, whether it is funding or technology, and the market pathway.
In fact, we now look at Tencent's new version of QQ, which can be drawn, which is not a so-called "instant messaging" client, which is actually a comprehensive user network terminal application integration, communication chat, Search, email, dating, resource navigation, commercial information, file sharing, online community BBS, entertainment portal, and various third-party service providers provide by proliferation services (such as recruitment, office supplies, etc.), etc. Yes, they are shaping such a platform, you don't need to open any other network tools online, including the browser, you can do QQ directly, you can do any network applications, whether communication or resource calls, no matter Is business or entertainment, whether they are provided or third-party provided, they have to make a monopoly basic network application platform operator, they will provide considerable basic applications, the rest of the network, only Provide proliferation services on their platform. A powerful, integrated, cross-platform, monopoly IP Internet data terminal is their true ambition. Let's talk about 3G, 3G era, each mobile node is the IP terminal, and the frequency width multiplexing technology will gradually make "Internet" words into history, a real 3G mobile phone, theoretically 24 hours online, Don't worry about the problem of excessive mobile terminals to IP occupation, IPv6 will guarantee this unaffected), the generated resource occupation, or reasonable billing mode, should be based on effective data transmission, not "connect "Time." (Of course, the final billing model also depends on the conscience of the telecom monopoly and their profit needs. This is not about the technical principle). In the 3G era, data and communication is no longer independent different applications, and will Tended to unify, IP voice is no longer available to provide special equipment and network service providers, and will become a basic operational communication mode. At this time, we will see the role that Tencent can take it, it is terrible, he can Provide users with complete, IP-based data voice video communication services, as well as various forms of data proliferation services, he enables 3G terminals to become a real comprehensive network application terminal, rather than a pure call terminal, More terrible is that he also has a mass of users who can fight with telecommunications. Telecom monopoly mechanisms can control GSM, which can control PSTN because the communication protocols and transmission patterns here are based on a channel monopoly, and the telecom monopoly mechanism can firmly grasp the channel control, but rising to IP layers Application, they are impossible. Unless they set up more metamormed regulatory and control channels, even if this kind of supervision is achieved, this will not be a long time. From the development trend, telecom is not controlled.
Maybe some people are not very understanding, Caoz can only say this, now Tencent is penny with telecom, and the future Tencent will grab money with telecommunications, and telecom monopoly has gradually weaken into line suppliers and infrastructure service providers. The above speech data service will generate new monopolies. Tencent is looking to this goal, which is also the meaning of "3G era, QQ" mentioned in the front of the Caoz.
Existing competition
Now, the only thing that can threatens Tencent. Only MSN, MSN is very simple, and the fusion binding of the operating system makes him don't have to worry about the problem of installed capacity. Now MSN has achieved more than 20% market share. Its trend is also gradually rising. Here is an interesting phenomenon. MS Explorer is no longer upgraded as a separate software product, while the new browser kernel has been transferred to the relevant department of MSN, the signal and QQ here are The same, they think Messenger is an integrated terminal for future users. The browser has no meaningful software. Browsing the kernel will become an underlying component of all applications. Users no longer need a separate browser, and as long as MSN Messenger Yes. MSN's problem is that their focus is in Europe and America, China has always been unhappy, whether it is the construction of entertainment channels, the construction of the game channel, and related various entertainment applications that attract netizens, it is far behind Tencent. And in the short term, according to MS thinking habits, they will not go to this application with Tencent. After all, their main opponents on the global level are still there wheng.
Yahoo Tong is as disappointing, but not mentioned.
Langma UC is something that makes people look bright. If this is not the case, Sina will not give up the garbage product "there is also a strong research", and use heavy gold to acquire, Langma UC is very lucky to use QQ stop registration One-end time of the strategy mistake, and take the lead in launching applications such as online games, user communities, it seems to be very good, but what is this? In fact, Langma's existence and development is not to block QQ, but help QQ development. In fact, for QQ, the monopoly products like QQ, they don't have to intend to compete with which function point, or which app is taken first, as long as they stay enough Wake-up and attention, any similar features and applications, there is no threshold for them, you can provide and extend at any time, so Langma UC regrets that the new version of QQ is almost did not give him any space, Its features and applications are all being borrowed and imitated by QQ.
IMU is compatible with the sale point, through the development of the league, is also a good idea, but it is only a reduction in the threshold, and cannot be a selling point. Myim has tried it for many years, and there is no breakthrough. The IMU is also What is the idea of seeking breakthroughs, but what they can bring to the alliance? There is no truly valuable application model, just relying solely on some simple alliance mode, this alliance will be struggling.
Tom-Skype and E Tong are two eager to have a very naked thing. They are naked, they want to cut into the voice business of traditional telecommunications, but it is clear that there is no extensive user group support, there is no sufficient resource reserve, only relying on a little technical highlight. Their leader is just a flowers. Tencent QQ has used the GIPS voice compression kernel in the latest version, theoretically, the same effect as Skype. The effect of video is improved, and I believe it is only a matter of recent, Tom thinks Skype can help them sit and enjoy it, and I didn't expect Tencent's chasing speed. Not giving them a chance.
The rest of the products are also taking advantage of "emule eDonkey", "POCO" application currently has a fairly fixed crowd and user, but the application mode of QQ does not conflict directly, and QQ does not hit them. The market, more is not the reason for technology and resources, but not to take this insurance, once this gray mode encounters some policy restrictions and regulatory restrictions, there is a possibility of being banned and blocked by the whole, QQ will not take themselves Golden silver user group tied such a gunbophoto, which is also a robust form that can be understood. One of the conclusions here is that any "technical leader" that relies on functional or some uncomfortable "technical leaders" is competing with Tencent unless it is looking for a neutral block from the legal edge. In fact, as Tencent said, from the business competition, Tencent's real enemy only has themselves, as long as they don't make mistakes, other competitors just promote Tencent improved catalysts, do not constitute a blocking strength.
Tencent's approach can be very simple. Sitting to see those who have a miscellaneous competitor to push out new, see who's new function failed, they took lessons, see who's function is widely recognized, they can also be short In terms of imitation and chasing, competitors have become an experimental field for market assessment. So Tencent doesn't need to pursue perfection, as long as the competitors have no temper, but can not drive to kill, always encourage competitors to make some tricks to challenge him, in order to make them half-time, the new spiritual machine, produce new power .
Look at the official said, the Tencent is not invincible in the world, what do you say? In fact, Tencent is a commercial company as a commercial company, a huge entity that is targeted by market value as a goal, inevitably exists, there will be its soft ribs and problems. Grab these issues can get a clear idea.
Tencent's weaknesses
In fact, the so-called weaknesses are not necessarily a shortcoming, but it is possible to make some competitors seek some places in breakthrough points. There are approximately the following points.
1. At the core interest, the client becomes an invisible fortress
To put it bluntly, Tencent can't give up the control of the client software. Some plug-in QQ, because of some business functions, there is still a negative impact on Tencent's business, and now Tencent can still be upgraded frequently. And some business, legal and technical means to prevent the flood of those plug-in instant messaging clients, but in a sense, the emergence of plug-in or compatibility clients is inevitable. We look at the extension of online games, you can see some clues.
Unlike online games, the core value of online games is on the server, while Tencent's client carries too many business value. However, different people's differential needs of the client have become an important issue that plagues Tencent's development. Tencent has now consciously launched multiple client platforms, including RTX, TM, and QQ, in fact, it is already aware of this crisis. . However, let Tencent are embarrassed, what is needed, the three versions are still not enough.
2. For financial statements and investors expect, unavoidable utilitarian tendency
In fact, this problem and the previous issue are related. Users have generated more and more standard clients provided by QQ, and a small part is because of the client's usage problem, more advertisements do not add The incidence of festival and playback, this is similar to several mainstream portals, because of the indicators of the statute of financial statements, some professional managers have tasting and fish, killing chickens, including some "excessive forms" advertisements, And some non-controlled broadcasts, etc. In addition, Tencent can't suddenly significantly reduce his membership service charges, which also brought certain living spaces to competitors. No matter in any case, the free service will always be easily pushed than the charging service.
3. Can't pay attention to narrow score applications
Due to the huge and wide range of users of the target customer group, they cannot pay attention to the narrow business appeal because Tencent's current performance is high. Because of this regard of the five flowers, thousands of strange. For example, Che Youhui, Alumni Association, Owners Club, Law Firm, etc., will hope to combine instant messaging platforms and their community forums, user databases, providing a platform for their communication methods, but obviously, for these Miscellaneous business appeal, Tencent can only provide simple common functions, without providing professional data interaction platforms, no matter from cost / return considerations, people's investment, influential considerations, will not do it. In fact, this series of narrow markets have no people to really excavate. This is true that IMU includes a bit idea to push the league.
The conclusion here is that Tencent's weakness comes from his utilitarian, in fact, commercial companies are always interested, that is, these weaknesses, not a shortcoming for business competition, and his main competitors will have The same weaknesses, and those who can partially eliminate these weaknesses, often can only be small, very influential, narrow, and these entities usually do not have effective threats to Tencent, so they see weaknesses, does not mean Ability to block Tencent. It is like Hao123 traffic, and it is impossible to block Sina.
Who will take a responsive and responsive?
The previous conclusion is that under the premise of Tencent, he did not have a complete eagerness in Tencent, and the fish is still in the case of the fish; all, rely on a business company, challenge Tencent through a certain function or a technology The behavior is actually very vivid, can only be a paving stone, Sina, Sohu, Netease, Tom, 263, and domestic network companies, almost tried, and one will jump below It will be grand, but the grand money is more, challenge Tencent QQ, I am afraid it is very vivid, and Tencent is preparing to challenge in the game field. This battle will look very well. Can Tencent? The grand interactive game is not optimistic, but QQ's dominant position is not so easy to lose.
So who will stop QQ? We can look at such an example, the most cattle B software companies in the world, master the most personal computer and even low-end servers, do not say, is MS. Who is challenge MS? Too many giants have tried it, they have no real. And really brought the greatest trouble to MS, Linux, Linux does not belong to any commercial company, and even the pure Linux is not commercial products at all, but this open-compatible model has created countless collaboins, open organizations, There are commercial companies, even IBM, Oracle's giants gradually join, this kind of open source, open alliance power, far greater than the power you can generated by any commercial company, at least at low-end servers On the market, the most important blocking of MS is from Linux. If you only rely on Redhat, Debian is a company that is not likely to flies so long, but the power of the Linux community, let MS sleep. In contrast, the situation is similar, some people say that Caoz has to say jabber, yes, but then add a word behind this, it is BT, BT is originally a personal release, short two Three years, popular globally, shocked the Internet! What is it? Open, interconnection, compatibility. Quite a number of organizations, individuals and companies develop BT-based products, release BT-based resources, each product can be compatible with each other according to standard formats. BT's prosperity is not a man's credit, not an organization and team's efforts, but the power of the entire network. Jabber, Caoz emphasizes the words mentioned by Caoz, not a company, not a software product, but an open source communication standard and transport agreement, is also an open source basic platform, if I put any Jabber-based An instant messaging product, standing out as a software, and QQ is not comparable. The function is simple, the support is limited, the application mode is single, it is not a platform, but caoz advocates it, open source, compatible power is too powerful. As a technical structure, Jabber is not pursuing the complete business goal. At present, there are currently many different enterprises and organization developed Jabber-based communication service platforms or client software, more well-known. There are Shenzhen lying stone technology, but it is absolutely nothing to do with him. Jabber BT has become a development trend, related applications are being done by different companies, in different purposes, in different ways, this trend is still in the continuation, you can imagine, when it is quite interactive, It is also when the compatible product is full of compatible products, and it is also a headache that QQ feels certain.
Since the open source platform is lowered to relevant construction technology thresholds, some narrow score applications can be convenient to realize their own communication platforms, whether it is colleges and universities, professional riders, and owners club, they can easily modify the original The code is to obtain a communication platform for its own existing database, forum, user data, and build a Communication platform for its own business. At the same time, these platforms can communicate with each other. This prospect is broad, business model is definitely not CAOZ, can be described in three words.
According to some media reports, Google has started to develop a more complete instant messaging platform in the acquisition of Hello, and the protocol used inside, it seems to be the XMPP of Jabber, which is currently rumored, but Caoz estimates, with Google's judgment Words, choosing Jabber as a basis is wise. At present, the power of Jabber has not been displayed, because the technical structure of Jabber is still relatively simple, features a single functional characteristics, and the construction threshold is still not civilians, and the difficulty of second development is still existed, but this power continues to grow. Absolutely you can see. When more development units join, more open source versions are shared, the pattern of three British wars Lu Bu will appear.
I am willing to look forward to everyone.
