"Great China" Winter (on) Sun Li
Lucent Empire did not fall. The fox is dead, the rabbit should be happy. However, China's communication manufacturing companies should really "fox dead rabbit sad".
China's manufacturing companies have not had a chance, and there is no power to make a thorough adjustment.
Huawei president, Ren Zhengfu, "Huawei's winter" is still circulated online. Huawei's employees heard warning: So big Lu Xun said that it is, not to mention us?
Huawei's employees are no longer heard of such warnings. The first two years of "Huawei's red flag can play" " Just this time, there is a global industry's urine and the rapid decline of the giants, and the warning effect of Ren Zhengfa is more shocking.
Unlike Huawei, domestic manufacturing companies do not seem to have too much touch because Lucent has not fallen. For the manufacture of communication equipment such as Lucent and Nortel, it is the winter of chill, and for domestic manufacturing companies in China, it is still a bright spring, and its living environment is far better than Those unlucky foreign dinosaurs.
However, how long can a good year? How many crises and danger are hidden under the calm sea? Does the tragedy of Lucent will repeat in the domestic business?
Environmental variable
Many domestic communications manufacturing companies listened to the crisis of Lucent, always feel that they and Lucent do not have too much comparability. On the one hand, it is considered that the Chinese market can also stick to 3, 4 years; on the other hand, domestic enterprises feel that China's communication manufacturing industry has been open, and competition is not from today, and you will not be an open operation. The industry is so panic. In fact, there is a deep background factor under the unique good year of China's communication manufacturing market. Compared with the over-expansion of foreign telecom industry, China's telecom industry is still in a high-speed growth period before saturation, and the development of the international telecommunications market is not synchronized. In other words, the individual high-growth in China's telecom market has brought a desert in the domestic manufacturing industry. The domestic manufacturing enterprises are still very small, relative to China's huge market, even small share is enough to make them satisfied and live well; in addition, the market in domestic enterprises is almost in China, outside The wind and rain changes do not have much impact on them; the policy environment is also another lifeblood survived in China. Under the double protection of the telecom industry and the national industry, the domestic manufacturers can get some "discount" conditions.
The problem is that how long can the prosperity of "Great Golden Chinese, Behumpu World" still last?
First of all, with the austerity of the international market, China's oasis will lead to more and more hunger. At present, many foreign manufacturers have launched the Chinese market in the "joint venture" way. In these joint ventures of China, the core technology has almost no exception in the hands of the outside. Among the equipment bidding of the equipment, "OPT" is still the current situation in which domestic enterprises cannot avoid. In addition to using technical advantages, more foreign manufacturers will directly use capital operations such as acquisition, shareholding, and use the funds advantages to extrude the country. It is said that Alkart will soon obtain the control of Shanghai Bell, a famous joint venture, will soon purchase shares to China. The Shanghai Bell, which was originally controlled by China, due to the backwardness of the latest communication technology, has led to a serious market in the market in the past two years, and finally the right side.
After joining the WTO, these foreign equipment manufacturers may jointly launch offensions more and enter China's foreign operators. Some analysts believe that foreign investment will bring internationally general directional procurement model: operators and a few equipment manufacturers form alliances, participate in each other's business development and business process design, so that competition between individual manufacturers Competition between value chains. German telecommunications and Siemens, AT & T and Lucent are the most prominent alliance. This is a chance to domestic companies.
Second, the high-speed growth in the Chinese market will inevitably come to the end. In competition, when the market is getting more and more, the so-called "huge Chinese" competitive structure formed in China will be difficult to maintain, and the market will not live so many equipment manufacturers.
At present, due to the gradual relaxation of telecommunications control, emerging operators continues to emerge, and China Telecom may further split all over the market opportunities to domestic manufacturers. The fierce competition of operators has enabled all parties to expand their business scope. This makes the manufacturer can also get greater profits to all of themselves like a lot of money. However, it is understood that domestic operators have begun to learn the painful lessons of foreign operators who have been crushed in the new economic retardation, gradually slowing down demand and construction, becoming more cautious and harsh. In addition, due to the influence of the international climate, many domestic operating companies who want to go to the international capital market will be blocked, making their construction projects could not be carried out as scheduled. Some blind optimistic manufacturing companies have tasted the suffering of the midway tightening due to overestimation of this year's market demand. In addition, the country's industrial policy may not have to bring their imagination to domestic companies.
Some insiders believe that the national policy environment has not been given to too many discounts to domestic companies, at least create a coordinated and cultivated industrial environment, especially in the coordination of the operation and manufacturing. The manufacturing hopes that the operation industry can "pull brothers", interact with the development of domestic manufacturing enterprises in project construction and procurement. Just like the cooperation in South Korea, the operation and manufacturing, a batch of famous manufacturing companies like Samsung and LG. Now, under the cultivation of Korea's manufacturing enterprises, it has formed the competitiveness of the international market, which can be survived from the national operation industry. However, China's manufacturing industry is currently in the national market and cannot enter the main line, just a low-end market below the region. Occasionally, the opportunity to get tendering in the international market is also the first price war, three five rounds, and the price has been compressed without any profit. The country's industrial policy should play a coordination, but there is not yet. Such a policy environment cannot be a reliable lifetime.
The lifeline that supports China's communication to make a market for good years is so fragile and volatile.
Decision-making risk
When the living environment changes, companies first need to have decision-making capabilities. Decision failure will bring huge disasters, just like Lucent.
Decision-making mechanisms for domestic communication manufacturing companies may be divided into two cases: First, the leaders of corporate leaders, the second is the leading system of business charters.
Private companies are almost belong to the former, and the state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises that have been changed by research institutes belong to the latter. The founders of private enterprises generally have established prestige in the development of enterprises, their character, and spiritual integration into all aspects of corporate culture and decision chains. In this case, entrepreneurship's personal qualities and morality often affect the destiny of the company. At this time, companies only hope that entrepreneurs don't make mistakes.
Obviously, the decision-making risk that is often devastating. Taking Huawei as an example, president is not very clear about this. In 1995, Huawei's dozens of decision-making committees came into being, and the purpose was to establish a decision-making mechanism that established a safe, scientific and democracy. There are three top-level decision committees of Huawei, respecting the company's finance, human resources and other lifeline problems. Even the president, there is only one vote in the committee. The problem is whether this committee becomes a real decision-making body, not a school. Moreover, the decision committee follows the rules of "from the sages that are not prospected", which means that it is not to decide by voting, but to see who's opinion makes sense. But the so-called "truth" evaluation standard is also the highest decision maker. It is said that this is to get rid of the problem brought about by collective decisions.
The mechanism of state-owned enterprises to decision-making according to the business charter program seems to be more like democratic decisions, but has developed many years, but "democracy" seems to be able to effectively prevent decision-making mistakes. The midfall of the dragon may be a typical example.
The 04 machine of the dragon is China's first large digital program-controlled switch. It has greatly reduced the price of the switch, and squeezed the foreign brand hard to raise the Chinese market. In the brilliant years of the dragon, ZTE, Huawei is still a little brother, just like Alcatel, which year.
But today, there are few people who will also mention it all. When new access networks, wireless communication, optical transmission, broadband fiber networks are rapidly horing, Dragon has failed to seize the opportunity in time. The earliest decision-making mistake should be the 1998 access network technology, Dragon's decision makers, and the inventors of 04 machines, mistakenly underestimating the market prospects of this technology. It turns out that in 1998, it was called an access network. The decline in market sales has led to a multi-crisis of corporate funds, talents and technology. In order to solve these crises, Dragon has conducted multiple institutional adjustments and recombination, but the effect is small. One step did not follow, resulting in a step behind it later. Julong recently made a handshake, a thorough institutional restructuring, and is working with capital negotiations to share capital. According to a matter of concern, this adjustment brings unprecedented fresh air and vitality to Dragons. But the cruel reality is that the dragon has lost too many opportunities. The dragon after the serious injury would want to come back, maybe be more imagined. (to be continued)---------------------------------------------- ------ "Great China" Winter (below) Sun Li
What is more thoughtful than decision-making mechanisms is that decision-making mistakes are not true causes of business failures. Just like if the decline of the dragon is because the decision maker's mistakes, I am afraid I have lost fair. In fact, the decline in market sales brought about by decision-making, the dragon has long been buried in a variety of crises under the prosperity. The unfoundation of all aspects of the enterprise system, management, financing channels, etc. in the historical background, leading to the lack of the dragons in the crisis lack of rapid adjustment of strain. Similar problems have always existed in other companies.
Measuring whether companies have survival, not entirely on the strength and scale of the company, but when the market environment changes, companies can quickly adjust the product structure and enterprise structure to adapt to this changed survival basis. Does not have this ability, decision-making mistakes are almost inevitable. The mistake may be death. Lucent has a strong R & D platform - Bell Lab, has a strong financing channel, all over the world's marketing network, once reached 200 billion US dollars, but Lu Lu still faces the subsequent acquisition because of decision-making mistakes . Some industry insiders commented that Lucent is still so, let alone "huge Chinese"!
Management trap
Due to the good domestic year, domestic companies have been harmed in these two years, and they are very fast. However, it is a disaster for no management companies.
Huawei has now nearly 20,000 people. For such large enterprises, management is undoubtedly a terrible thing. Wu Chunbo, a professor of the National Economic Management Department of Renmin University of China, once is one of the six people who have given Huawei to manage consulting, and now continue to give Hua as consultants. Wu Chunbo said: people have more powerful, but people will also lead to confusion.
Huawei is getting bigger and bigger, Ren Zhengfu is the "soil" expert of domestic colleges and universities, and now turn to the foreign consultation. I have recently heard that Datang also spent huge sums of money, please McKinsey.
According to Huawei's internal people, there is a lot of waste in resource allocation. For example, software development has no project management, Huawei's internal flow rate is very high, the front of the people have been in half a day, and the last people will start from the head. In addition, the coordination of the department is also poor, the communication is not smooth, and the efficiency is not high.
There is an evaluation in the industry. In fact, it is not the best in China's technology, products, markets and maintenance. Wu Chunbo said, because of this, Huawei must use the best possible management to integrate a bunch of uncomfortable ability to achieve the best results.
In the past two years in Huawei, IBM is responsible for the development of Huawei's IPD - integrated product development; the US Hay Group helps to do qualifications and salary systems; US Tower is in-householding system; KPMG And PWC design finance system; American Mercer is doing customer-oriented organization changes; German National Technology Application Research Institutes do production process and quality control system. Huawei hopes that these foreign experts can build a huge enterprise process management system for Huawei, so that all people, wealth, and things can flow like a pipeline operation, and flow in Huawei's large machine. This system consists of a block template. Everyone's task is to put themselves into this template without having to study why. To achieve this goal, Huawei no longer requires so many middle organization and personnel. The organization of flat and personnel is streamlined by the next goal of the company, and Ren Zhengfu has clearly expressed this.
It is said that McKinsea has also gave Datang to take advantage of the treatment plan. To make a big reorganization of Datang in the longest not more than a few months.
Whether private companies are still state-owned companies, they have realized that management is the largest trap within the company. Please contact the company to do management. It is a good way. But what kind of consultation is not, how much management reform is doing, but how to implement the results of the consultation. Huawei's "Leadership Charm", "shaving suits" At this time, it may be more conducive to the implementation of consultation programs. But for state-owned enterprises like Datang, the reform of management system is a difficult thing. Datang has been restructured from the past Telecom Research Institute, and there is a problem with the coordination between listed companies and groups. There is a news that McKinsey's full set of programs has been completed, but they have not received the high-level approval of Datang. The Tang Dynasty is currently mixed with McKinsey's programs. In addition, the overall business restructuring of the Tang Tang Group implemented in this reform touched many local interests, just a large number of middle-level cadres that were caused by the combining of business blocks. Therefore, even if the reform plan is adopted by the Datang high-level, it will not modify the reform in the implementation process, and the international popular style of the international popular style of McKinsey can not be worn in Datang. It's hard to say. These people facing Datang may be more than Huawei. At present, the president of Datang listed company has changed from the original Chairman and the Shou Dan also the highest manager of the Datang Group, which may be able to provide some guarantees for the implementation of this reform.
Talent crisis
ZTE's senior vice president Shi Rong said that the most terrible crisis in the future may be a talent crisis. In these years, foreign companies have increased investment in China, stepped up the competition for local talents, and established a research institute in China has become a trend.
Many industry management, technicians believe that communication manufacturing companies do high-tech companies know that talents are the source of corporate wealth. However, it is often important to attach importance to collaboration. The personal originality of talents may be neglected; enterprises pay attention to management's comprehensive efficiency, new things may not be so easily accepted and promoted; companies attach personal solving unique ability and innovation capabilities, It may face difficulties in harvesting results. Sometimes, human resource management is indeed a difficult problem.
In several Chinese manufacturing companies, Huawei is a business that is high enough, but the labor intensity is also high. Some people say that after 3 years of Huawei, there may be physical and unbound. Therefore, Huawei's talent flow rate has been very high. Huawei's human resource management is the improvement of per capita efficiency. Wu Chunbo, who is now giving Huawei's human resources management, said: China's most lack of time is efficient, it is clear that this view has been fully rooted in Huawei. Under a set of strict assessment mechanisms (Huawei recently introduced the virtual profit assessment allocation system, this kind of tricks are endless, the outside world is difficult to understand, touching), Huawei is really forced to get down, can not People bringing benefits to enterprises that the Huawei is still unable to stay.
Last year, Huawei made a reward conference in an individual, which is a creative creative. He let the maintenance staff fly to the maintenance machine ticket and the products that do not adapt to the customer needs to set up the mirror frame, and put the food waste waste generated by the production and processing of the workshop, and send it to the relevant personnel to make a bonus. Originally, they should get a bonus, but now they have to buy this money back to the loss caused by the original. Of course, its warning is much greater than the economic significance. Huawei's approach has undoubtedly brought efficient operation with efficient operation. Many people are willing to choose Huawei, because they think that "use" in such a business "use" for a few years, the future will be used in the future.
But behind the attention of efficiency is that Huawei is not an enterprise that encourages innovation. Huawei's employee summary said that in Huawei's "small improvement big prize, big suggestion only encourages". So it is best not to have innovative ideas.
Huawei seems to also encourage technological innovation. Huawei proposed that R & D staff is not responsible for scientific research results, but is responsible for the market results of the product. Many more advanced, new, technology that cannot be associated with existing technology is often not favored by Huawei. Ren Zhengfu has learned from those international pioneers, and decided "Huawei only leads the opponent's half step, and takes every step." This determines that Huawei will not pay the cost of cleaning saline in the new technology field, and the market is the only criterion of Huawei. Of course, Huawei may also affect the enthusiasm of some employees.
Some comments said that in the past, Lucent was to pursue high-speed growth, and put a lot of short-term profitability, but the future of the prospects was sold, leading to the prospective eye of the technology. Paying attention to the market, but too much attention to the market, it is obviously not the least wise practice.
Datang is very attached to technological innovation, and the R & D staff will be god. Even Datang managers will feel that the communication and coordination of R & D staff is a very hard work. Some people use "arrogant" to describe some technical pointers. However, because there is no good efficiency mechanism, Datang excellent technical research and development capability can only stop in the laboratory for a long time. There are also some companies want to retain talents. I feel that salary is the main reason for talents, so I will give talents. However, because the enterprise is lacking in the direction, you will still have no help these outstanding talents understand what you will do next.
Various companies play a price war in the product market, and it is also divided on the talent battlefield.
Some enterprises accuse Huawei's predatory possession of talents. Every year, Huawei is almost the earliest leading graduates from universities. Students like communication engineering, computer, microelectronics, etc., Huawei generally use heavy gold, and even the pot. When waiting until other companies comes, it may already be a no longer left. I have to relate some professional people to go back to the company's admissions amount (the number of enrollment people is bigger every year). For later companies, these major non-opposing talents are wasteful to enterprise resources, especially in the absence of management, will only lead to indigestion of enterprises. Dragon recruited more than 400 new graduates in 1998, and hundreds of people recruited in 1999, but also an important factor that later leads to the corporate crisis.
And Huawei recruits a few thousand people every year, such a large number of Huawei really can absorb? In the news that this year, Huawei recruits, in the eve of the news, many of the students who originally entrusted Beijing, Shanghai Research Institute were notified to the user service center in all over the world, some people called "bid". Some people have analyzed the reason for Huawei overestimated the total amount of market demand this year last year. Huawei is a big recruitment on the one hand, in order to ensure the completion of sales, on the one hand, it is the competitiveness of the opponent, including technology research and development capabilities. Unexpectedly, this year's situation is not as good as expected, can only brake.
When the environment changes, the company can flexibly strain, determine whether the company can live from spring to winter.
Many companies say that we have already played a whole ten years with foreign companies in their own house, we are all dead, we will not die in the future. Maybe this idea is the most dead. Chinese companies think that they have been strong and can continue their success. Just as many years of successful companies that have been successfully sold in the sale of the Sales or from the switch. Chen Yue, deputy chief engineering, China Telecom Development Research Center, said that China's manufacturing enterprises have not had a chance, and there is no power to make a thorough adjustment. Japan has an expert in the concept of death Valley: If you have been walking in your own successful mode, you will definitely enter the death. So the company must change when it is certain. Lucent has been successful, but because desperately wants to continue this successful mode, when the environment changes, Lucent failed. When the environment changes, what is the fate of "huge Chinese"? (Finish)
