(1) About investment speculation
Both market novices or professional vetements have spent a lot of time to learn a variety of people in the securities market, or try to find some way to use. As a result, in addition to a large pile of shallow shares and a variety of so-called "victorious horses" secrets, it will not find any results.
I hope to provide the reader to the market observation and discovery, they assisted me to create a rich and stable nominal compensation rate in a few years, and no loss has occurred any year, it sounds unbelievable, Please see the following.
This article is written for investors and speculators, first, it is necessary to figure out the meaning of investment and speculation. Speculators focus on middle and short-term market trends, they build market positions, and hold a few days, weeks or months; investors mainly consider the long-term trend of the market, and the positions held for several years. .
However, in fact, investors or speculators in most markets don't understand themselves, do not understand the art of investment or speculation. Especially speculators (they account for the vast majority of the entire market) often based on the short-term price trends in the market, hoping to profit through effective and accurate trading behavior. In most cases, the market does not run according to their ideas, so speculators have to help invest in the "rules" to deceive themselves, often tell themselves: "This company is really good." The speculation is ultimately forced to invest in this market often sees the phenomenon. However, speculators' contribution to the market provides an indispensable liquidity for the market. In most cases, the smooth transfer of financial assets can also be promoted, and their best functions are played through asset configuration.
And investors often have a full confidence to buy all funds into their own shares, and claim that much price is not out of the cloud. But it is often very little time. His stock always can't get the price he envisaged, and even a little hope, when you see him next time, the general answer is: "I am really waiting." Can't, it's so long, simply change one, really don't understand, the performance is so good! " In fact, these so-called investors have long been forgotten why he bought this stock is because the company's performance is good to make investment choices, but most people may not understand a little, and there is no representation. The stock price of this company can rise rapidly in a short period of time. For the inherent relationships of performance and price, we will discuss in detail in the later chapters.
Investors will eventually enjoy the company's growth profits through the market flow of speculators. But the problem is that there is almost no one is willing to invest long-term investment. The quality of listed companies is a reason. The fun of speculation is another main reason. People often criticize investors to speculate too heavy, do not pay attention to long-term investment, in fact, the uncertainty of financial markets make speculation full of fun, imagination, suspense. We believe that the fun of fun can occupy more than 30% of the proportion of speculation.
We believe that if you can't make it, it is quite stupid, and it can lead to frustrating failure. This is the reason I decided to lock the topic of this article in the investment basis.
However, please don't misunderstand the reader, I didn't want to discuss speculation, just want to tell you, speculative behavior is just part of the investment process, a stage, one operation skill. In fact, regardless of speculation or investment, its ultimate goals are the same: get profits!
The meaning of speculative is not gambling. The meaning of "investment" is to seize, grasp, use, find; "machine" nature, timing, and things. A poker master is almost gambling, telling me that he has successfully survived secrets. Article 1, if you want to win, you must understand the basic rules of playing cards; second, when you are lucky, only one-third of the gambling gold, don't play now. I am thinking, God! His operational principles are much better than most investors in the securities market. This article is the scope of this discussion: defining the minimum or stop loss in the securities market. (2) stop loss is the basic skill of speculative art
The greatest trader in the world has a useful and simple trading law called "Alligator Princi). All successful traders are in response to this principle to understand the degree of understanding of this principle before entering the market.
This is a swallowing mode of the crocodile: the prey is trying to struggle, the more harvest of the crocodile. Assume that a crocodile bite your feet; it bites your feet and wait for you to struggle. If you try to break away from your feet with your arms, its mouth bite your feet and your arm. The more you struggle, the deeper is trapped.
Therefore, in case the crocodile bites your feet, be sure to remember: your only life will have a sacrifice. If the market is expressed in the market, this principle is: When you know that you make mistakes, immediately! Cannot find excuses, expect, reasons or take any other action, hurry to leave!
In fact, whether it is stock market, foreign exchange market, optional transactions, and its trading skills are similar. The important meaning of "stop loss" is only a few people can "understand", so they can make money in the financial market. "Stop" is like a sharp knife, which makes you blood, but it can also make you don't hurt the vitality; it can not expand your loss to make you passive to constantly find new hotspots. Survive in the financial market, sometimes it needs to be patient, sometimes confident, but patient, confidence does not represent the lucky investors, do not know how to stop the loss, will lose. Selling is a stop loss. Stop loss is the basic skill of speculative art.
We must deeply understand this principle, this principle is also from the painful experience. In the mid-1990s, I was responsible for managing a small-scale funding. After winning the stock market, I used the stock market adjustment period. I set up a small head in the commodity futures A. Soon the price began to rise and reached the stop loss. However, I didn't accept the loss of 10,000 yuan, but in contraw, I continued to build a bigger head in a higher price. However, the price will continue to rise. How to do? I have established a small scale in the news of the price reduction of raw materials. As a result, the news that the item will increase production! Every time I take one step, the situation is further deteriorated. This crocodile finally sat on a meal, expanded my 100,000 yuan stop loss to 80,000 yuan, this is just because I don't abide by the principle I know. At the beginning of 1999, when my company mistakenly started to build a position in the performance of the elegant stock, the technology quickly transferred to the low-priced market share of the strategic victory.
I talked about so much about the content of stop loss, all on the basis of speculative operation, but the stage of speculative operation. Real investment does not require stop loss during the operational phase. I talked about so many stop damage, I didn't encourage people to actively speculate, but in response to the reality of the securities market, I don't believe it, you can check out any investor, fund manager, whether they are really in the securities market investment? Can their proportion exceed 10%? The answer is obvious!
Investment also has stops, but more time is it. The stop loss of investment is different from the stop loss of the speculation, the stop loss of the speculation is only relative to the price changes; the stop loss of the investment is based on the changes of fundamentals. Investors claim that real investment will never need to stop loss, because, large investors such as Buffett also stop loss, where to stop loss? When the investment company lost growth, the fundamental surface is deteriorated, stop loss! Recently, when I talked about the problems in the speech room and a customer, the customer once again emphasized the risk of the market, not to be touched and serious: the securities investment market only winner and losers, no expert. I am very solemnly telling him that you are wrong.
In the few industry-friendly friends I have contacted, there is indeed true market expert. They have an excellent and stable return invested or speculative, and they never talk about more than others. The market problem is never published. I can tell all the investor friends a secret, and the market experts are only doing it. The stock reviewer said that most of them are not good. At least, in the field I am familiar, I am not welcome in some respects, I am absolutely professional.
(3) Specialization is the only way to profit in the market
I talked about the problem of stop loss. In fact, it is only part of speculative art operation. A basic manner. From this issue, I will lead you to the field of speculative art world, from ideas and skills to enter this for most Investors are familiar with unfamiliar world.
Let me explain the function of thinking according to the principle. On June 28, 1999, I thought the market may have a sharp decline at any time. Before opening, I started to call a few customers, telling them my opinion, focusing as follows:
I think the market is about to have a major amendment or a falling quote. Since May 17, the market has continued to be in the main segment. In all the historical rises, there is only a 20% trend, and the last time is longer than this wave. "The Shanghai Composite Index" has risen by 70%, and there is a sharp rise in the same class of B shares. Some B shares have almost no selling. After the market is repeated, the transaction cannot be continuously enlarged - all It is obviously a short signal.
The deposit of the market continued to rise, the market atmosphere is very optimistic, mainly being touted by the media, what "Big Bull City", "Bull City does not speak" and so on. But most of the stocks have already beaten and are in the mid-downtime.
So from the 28th, I repeatedly explained the reasons why I didn't think about my empty two days. At the same time, I went out of the stock in my hand, because I know that once a sharp decline, a lot of stocks can't run at all. These two days, I have been actively selling until the last stock of the hand.
I don't discuss whether I am an expert, from all the processes of the analysis of the market analysis, I didn't have any adherive information, although someone had already known the investment fund in shipping. All the guidelines or principles I have found are all scheduled factors in accordance with certain objective standards. This is a professional analysis and judgment.
Of course, if you are a long-term investor, you don't have to see the so-called speculative principles of this article, isn't it? Many investment funds may be in the biggest considering of investment, but they are not willing to stand more than 40%.
Relying on the operation of the market will be destined to fail, people often say that "someone in the market feels good" is inappropriate, "feel good" people have been in subclator in accordance with some objective principles in some sense In operation. If you are in a transaction, you can actually do it better than most people - you have basically become a market expert. Thinking in Essentials is the topic of this issue.
(4) Thinking according to the principle
Let us continue to review the previous experience, on June 30, the terrible moment appeared. There is a rapid decline in the general trend. There is no poor rebound in the middle - the situation is completely out of control. Since then, four days, the "Shanghai Composite Index" closed with 203 points.
From the end of May, the combined investment profit of the combination of this is 165% of the combined investment profit. The 70% increase in the city. Finally, not only avoid falling, keeping profits, and making mentality more relaxing, happy and starting to wait for the next opportunity to enter the market.
I don't know how to fall from June 30th, from June 28 to 29, shipping is not coincidental or luck. I have mastered this wave of decline, and I have nothing to do with luck. Every analysis criterion I use - including a number of reasons mentioned above - all showing the market is about to fall; all the winnings are standing on this side.
I will explain it item by item to how I predict this kind of market. However, if I have to indicate all the contents in the method, it is: Thinking in Essentials.
The focus must not be how many market information, but you know the authenticity and correlation of the content. Securities Weekly and Daily, each period has a print beautiful chart and comment, describes the current stock, bond, commodity futures and its trading tools. There are a wide information, handle all information and understand the meaning of their representatives, is beyond the ability of human mind. In fact, the key to handling information is: How to extract the fundamental principles from countless data per day.
In order to master this ability, you have to manage market information in principle. The last example. My focus is not whether you agree with this principle. It is to explain that if we understand the basic market principles, it seems a very complex market phenomenon, it can be converted to relatively simple knowledge here.
It is a matter of thinking according to the principle of thinking (market sales operation); how to identify the principle is another matter. Read the comments on the securities market, you will find that each "expert" has views, but these views often contradict each other.
In this article, I will present: understand the basic knowledge of the market, and how to use these knowledge profits - a "speculative principle" required for successful market players.
Recently, the "progressive" and "steady" sponsored by our company have been well stable and stable, and the market is adjusted from August to the process of innovation, although the large disc amplitude is large. However, the average increase of less than 0.1% (the Shanghai No. 2114 points to 2125 points), and our two combinations have achieved average returns for 30%. This score is enough to proud to most professional investors. Some customers continue to ask if I have insider messages, otherwise the adjustment in August is avoided, why is the startup at the end of September? I tell them that they don't rely on insider messages, fully in accordance with the strategies we have developed. In the future, we will continue to achieve this stable achievement, and will be traded in accordance with the scheduled strategy before and after, which is the theme we want today, the core content in the mysterious speculation - the consistency of the transaction.
(5) Consistency of the transaction - the first part
If you study the information of great traders in history, you will find many of them have at least once. In addition, we know that approximately 7% of investors can make money. what on earth is it?
People have lost money in the market, although there are many reasons, but there is a most serious, and it is also the most easy to make mistakes, which is inconsistency, inconsistency. The reason why this error is generated is because people have not set a previously consistent trading strategy before the transaction.
As I said in the first two phases, most investors have not planned to invest in the market, it is investment or speculation. If the investment makes money, it will change to speculation. If the speculation, if the speculation is set, it will change to long-term investment. What is the case of most investors around you? In fact, this is also the domestic small and medium-sized investors often say: the seven loss is two flat. If you do professional investors need to make profits in the market, you have to do some of the market in the market, which may have some profits in the market, of course, this small part of the profit is built in most The investor is on the basis of mistakes. This sounds a bit cruel, but the actual situation of the current market is indeed this! As a person who is a vocational trading, my goal is always: I have a stable money in the past. I have always regarded my deal as a business to operate, and a cautious entrepreneur first hopes to maintain him often overhead, then pursue the stable growth of surplus. I have never attracted the opportunity of Dashi, the primary task is to protect capital, followed by reward, and then take a part profit for high risk transactions. As a result, the chance of the big fish still appears, but it is not that I have never losing excessive risks.
I often encounter this situation in the transaction: a variety of me to buy, I look firm and obedient, this stock is in line with the characteristics of our requirements, I just think it is based on the standard and buy it, but this type Stocks often have a unbearable skyrocket, I will of course welcome it, because it can shorten our funding cycle.
This is why consistent trading operations have led to the ideal transaction results.
In the previous period, I talked about the principle of consistency of the transaction, why is it so important? Professional investors If there is no consistent trading, the loss is affirmative, the reason I managed can be profitable for a long time, it is entirely benefited from this. So what is its core part? Talk about this today.
(5) Consistency of transactions - Part 2
Professional transaction principles are arranged as follows: guarantee capital, consistent profit strategy, and pursue excellent remuneration. These three points are our basic principles, the highest guiding principle of all our market decisions, and the secret of our achievements. In my investment or speculative strategy, each principle has different parts, and there is a relationship between each other. In other words, capital security will result in consistent profitability, which makes me pursue excellent remuneration. Maybe some investors see some abstraction here, let's make further explanations.
In our business philosophy, it is the most important principle of capital. That is, in any potential market activity, the risk is my most important consideration. Before I propose how many profits can earn, I will first consider "How much is the potential loss I can suffer?" Thinking about risk-reward, the maximum acceptable ratio is 1: 3 (this ratio will be later Detailed description). If the market's risk - the reward is very poor, I will hold cash. I pursue absolute compensation, not relative compensation.
Modern investors are trained to accept the gray concept of the fund manager. If the market fell by 20%, the net value of the fund fell only 10%, investors should be happy - after all, his performance still exceeds the average level of 10%!
Either don't do it, you must be profitable! I repeatedly emphasized this when I talk about the assistant of previous investment companies. If you think that the market is always unpredictable or even unpredictable, then you will go to make a review or marketing insurance. This is also the only goal for all investors - of course difficulty may be too high. To ensure that this goal can be realized, you only have a clear class - in other words, keep the lowest risk, you can invest or speculate. All indicators show that the medium and long-term trend in the stock market is close to the top, why is your portfolio to be 100% full? In order to earn more than a few percentage of compensation, is it worth 50% of the loss? During the 99th to November, we were almost both hands, no stocks held in their hands. My trading system prompts me during this period, the market's risk - reward is far from 1: 3, can't meet the minimum requirements of the guaranteed capital, can't talk about superior profits. Moreover, in that position or up or down probability (if a very social event occurs, the Shanghai Index can fall down 400 points, and the US stock market in 1930 proves that any market irrational events may occur). Later, when the market has changed significant changes, my favorite risk - the reward is close to 1: 3, then I have a whistle again, while planning to go to the Spring Festival, start the cheap goods in the market .
When you continue to read this article, you will find out that you can do this.
In the past two weeks, as the deep Shanghai market has created a new high, there have been a lot of good speculative varieties, because when the index rises, 85% of stocks always consistent with the general trend. Some of these stocks are better than those of the two fund combinations of the company, why don't I replace it? As a vocational securities operation management is different from amateur investors, our operations must be implemented in accordance with the proposed strategy, planning. From a global point of view, after a quotation is finished, 90% of the varieties have increased, only in the process of rising, and the rhythm is different. What is the benefit of this mode of operation? I don't talk about it, I hope that readers will experience themselves in the future. In fact, this is the consistency of transactions in the predecessor, this issue, I will continue to lead everyone to explore this issue in this core field.
(5) Consistency of the transaction - Part III (Market Management of Professional Archics)
The market will not always be near the top or bottom. In general, between the top of any market and the bottom of the empty market, an excellent professional speculator or investor should be able to grasp 60% to 80% of the long-term price trend. During this period, the transaction focuses should be placed in low-risk consistency. Why do you say this? Because of the statistics of the market for more than six years, any top and bottom running time does not exceed the 20% time of the entire market, and most of the time is not more than 12%, we have many key data. Statistics, this is also one of the basis for developing the entire investment plan. In other words, in this less than 12% of the time you can calmly fry or escape, most people include the professional investment fund, can't do this, last year "5-19" market, a securities investment fund rush in 1680 This is explained in the market. We can't say that our overall grasp of the market exceeds the investment fund, but at least is absolutely first in the grasp of the market.
Capital should be stable, you must have a profitability of consistency, and you must protect your profit and reduce the loss as much as possible. Therefore, you must-measures the relationship between the risk and rewards of each decision, in order to increase the consistency. Be sure to remember the above sentence, it is almost all successful professional organizations, the principle of operation, only you understand the meaning of this sentence, you can enter the door of the occupational securities. If I am a young and first arrival speculator (more than 95% of investors in China is such a person), and have 50,000 yuan of fund transaction A shares stocks, my original position will not exceed the total capital 20 % - 10,000 yuan - and sets the loss of potential loss between 15% to 20% between 15% to 200 yuan. Loss between 1500 yuan to 2,000 yuan. In other words, according to this design, my loss will definitely exceed 3% to 4% of total risk capital. If the first transaction is lost in 1000 yuan, the position of the secondary transaction will be reduced to 9,000 yuan, and the potential loss is set between 1350 yuan to 1800 yuan (15% - 20%), and push it according to the secondary.
All this is just the first step in all transactions, and there is more important content:
As the topic is in-depth, my business secret is forced to show a little, just like I have been pulled from behind the scenes, although this is what I am not willing, but think of numerous investors It is also very valuable to benefit from it.
In the previous period, I talked about the initial transaction, these principles applied for people or large-scale investors who were engaged in market transactions because it protects you from harm in the market. Just like driving the seat belt, I have always thought that the transaction of the principal and healthy continuity is like protecting their lives. If the teacher is unfavorable, you will be affected by it, I refer to the spirit. Up. Psychological training is a lesson lacking in most professional agencies. Domestic is more rare. In the future, I will introduce knowledge about this.
(5) Consistency of the transaction - Part IV (Market Management of Professional Archonomy)
On the other hand, if my first transaction is profitable 3,000 yuan, I will consider 1,000 yuan as the increase in the principal, and the time will increase to 12,000 yuan, which will increase my starting (Initial) Venture capital (10,000 yuan) reached 20%. In this way, even if I have a loss of the next transaction, there is still a profit throughout the period (this means the next transaction is 20%). If I judge the market, there is 50% of the correct opportunity, this trading strategy will be able to create a considerable gain, suppose I only accept 1: 3 risk - the ratio of the reward, even if I have only every three transactions Once a profit, my income is still quite considerable. In other words, if you pay each transaction, you may pay three times the objective measurable potential loss, and you can maintain a consistent profitability. This is the principal management method of the market speculation of professional financial institutions. Based on my understanding, the world's largest traders in the world's choice - Ragnar Optinos Corp manages its huge trading companies with such consistent trading strategies; The world's largest interbank's monetary market (Interbank Currency Market) and the Futures Market, which have achieved amazing results in the world of speculative, but they can't be like Buffett's mainstream people. So living, because they are speculators!
Anyone enters the financial market, according to my years of observation, if he expects more than 60% of the opportunity to be profitable, this expectation will soon be awakened very rude. Because these amateur investors have almost no knowledge for managing funds, they often complain about the danger of the organization, causing their margins to lose money. In fact, it is precisely because you lack the professional strategy of securities transactions, so you always lose to the tight, strategic, careful planned professional organizations, and a difference in amateur football players and professional football players are enough to explain this. Let us continue this thrilling speculative process. At this time, when I have profitable, I still use the same reasoning procedure, and I will further start pursuing excellent, excellent remuneration. With larger margin, greater risk investment pursue higher capital returns. I often put into greater margin in the market or high-risk, the strong black horse stocks, but please note that this does not mean that I change the risk - Remuneration criteria - I only increase the size of the position.
A typical example occurs when the country allows three types of enterprises to enter the market. At that time, a mechanism account we operated had a small size. In the first 6 months, I have successfully earned 70% of pure profit. At that time, I strongly watched the empty market, so in a few varieties of the profit of the profit and the general trend, I called "rebellion combination". After 2 and a half months, the profit of the trading account exceeds 25% of the accounting capital of this accounting year. This is my so-called "active risk": the class is standing here, I put more funds. Even if I judge the complete error, I just lost a small part of the previous profit, I also have a lot of funds that can be engaged in low-risk transactions.
If you have a heart to become an occupational market investment expert, you can fully record, these simple truths are important content of the best professional organization management funds. If you are more interested in long-term investment, you'd better look at Warren Buffett or Fisher's books.
Safeguard capital, consistent transaction profit and pursuit of excellent remuneration, if you do understand the essence, they will guide you in the market. However, to be practically used, you still need more knowledge. If a person wants to truly understand the behavior and price trend of the market, he needs to have an indispensable knowledge "Dow theory".
Last year, when I was forced to participate in the Securities Qualification Qualification Exam, when I got a sharp combination equation, I felt the various risk parameters and performance indicators, I felt very funny. . I don't know how this capital pricing theory, the arbitrage combination equation gives the professionals have brought much success and profit; according to I understand, even in the world's largest securities market, use the classic investment theory (main Refers to the large-scale fund manager, it seems that there are not many examples. Human behavior is not a mechanical machine that can be controlled, and they are organisms with selectivity. Moreover, human beings are the market. Every day, millions of market decisions will appear. Each decision will affect the price, a set of so complex ingredients, and try to predict the mathematical model, it is a very ridiculous idea. However, there is also an order in chaos random, and the order of the order is the work of speculators and investors. "Duo Theory" can help us do this.
(6) The essence of "Tao's theory" is its philosophical ideology (first part)
For most professionals, the source of "Tao's theory" is more clear, I don't have introduced it. However, it is necessary to talk about what most people use the theory of Tao as a technical analysis method - this is a very regrettable point of view.
How big is the role of Tao's theory? Many investors include occupational people do not know much. Many people include securities textbooks to list the "Tao's theory" as outdated, there are many technical theories of defects. So, I can affirm them that their view is wrong. If you use the "Tao's theory" in the securities market (it will be considered as an operational technology), it is a misunderstanding of "Tao's theory". At the time, the greatest "Tao's theory" is its valuable philosophical thinking, which is all the essence. In the book of "Dota theory in the business and banking industry", the author Lea shows the "Tao's theory" can stabilize and accurately predict future economic activities. At the earliest, "Tao's theory" is designed to improve the equipment or tools for improving speculators or investors, not a full range of strict technical theories. Later, "Tao's theory" fell into some unobstructed hands. People no longer have the essence of this theory, and do inappropriate explanations and misuse, so that it is considered to be a set of outdated theory. According to the Report of the Rena Selection Rights Trading Fund: The "Duozi Industrial Index" and "Dow Jones Industrial Index" in 1896 to 1992 and the "Railway Index" discovered "Tao's theory" can accurately grasp 77.8% economic expansion The trend and 66.2% of the economic recession price trend, this is, respectively, by confirmation date to the top or bottom of the market. The average return rate (DVD) is 24.2% per year. In this reason, I must also add that if the investor uses "Tao's theory", he will sell the sky before the top of 1999 (I am so). There is no other prediction method to claim that it has this long-term consistency prediction capability. Therefore, every professional speculator or investor should study "Tao's theory".
In the following, I will find the three most important assumptions and five theorem of Tao's theory. If you want to improve your transaction level, please keep in mind these principles and deeply understand the philosophical meaning, so you may be very It is a few successful people in the market!
Recently, friends who continue to have industry pointed out to me, the contents of your foregoing are always focusing on speculation. I am happy that they did not think this is a technical analysis. Yes, honestly, I have never used any technical indicators, any technical theory, because of the real professional investors do not need them. So, is the basic analysis still need? I can tell you about it, and I need basic analysis in the world of speculative! Regarding the fundamental analysis on the basis of speculation, if I have a chance, I will talk about it, because there is currently very few people who are involved in this topic. When my predecessor boss and his traders looked at the stock portfolio of their own position adjusted for ten weeks (they were middle-line speculators), when they couldn't stand the pressure and boosted the position, Their incident, although the stock is so fast that it is not what they can grasp, according to this, I can get my conclusion, they are not unable to grasp the light-powered market, but I can't grasp the market trend, because they There is no application of the Tao's theory.
(6) The essence of Tao's theory is its philosophical ideological meaning (second part)
There is an extremely important assumption that the Tao's theory has the three hypothetical places that people usually see the technical analysis theory of technical analysis. However, here, the theory is more focused on the understanding of its market meaning.
Suppose 1: Manipulation - Index or Securities, every day, fluctuations per week may be artificial operation, secondary reactions, may also be limited in this regard, such as common adjustment trends, but main trends (Primary Trend) is not subject to human operation. Some people may say that the main trend of the Manneas can operate securities. In the short term, if he does not operate, the inner weighing of this suitable securities will also be operated by others; for a long time, the company's fundamental changes continue to create conditions suitable for operating securities. In general, the company's main trend is still unable to operate, but securities have exchanged different institutional investors and different operating conditions.
Suppose 2: Market Index reflects every message - every market for financial affairs, all of his hopes, disappointment and knowledge will be reflected in "Shanghai Index" and "Shenzhen Index" or other Index is fluctuations in the daily closing price; therefore, the market index will always expect the influence of future events. If there are disasters such as fire, earthquake, war, and market index will also evaluate it.
In the market, people have continuously evaluated and judged every day, such as financial policies, expansion, leaders, institutional violations, entrepreneurial boards, etc., and continuously reflect their psychological factors to market decisions. Therefore, the market always seems to be difficult to grasp and understand the market for most people.
Suppose 3: Total Theory is an objective analysis theory - successful use of it to assist speculation or investment behavior, need to in-depth research, and objectively judgment. When you use it subjectively, you will continue to make mistakes and constantly lose money.
I can tell everyone a secret: 95% of investors in the market use the subjective operation, and the vast majority of the 95% of investors are "seven compensation" people in "seven compensation two flat." And I am fortunate to have become an objective trader and investor.
According to our statistics, the average yield of the deep-Shanghai market exponent in 1990 to November 2000 was more than 30%. If you enter the market with 100,000 yuan in 1990, you don't need to listen to any insider news, see any shares, only the "Tao's theory" principle, only calculate the most conservative yield of the market: 100,000 yuan will change this year It has been 137 million; 1 million becomes 13.78 million. . . . . . On the occasion of New Year's Day, you can consider taking out a thousands of income to arrange a seven-day Macau. Seeing this, you may have a sincere sigh like me: great "Tao's theory"! Great Charles. Tao! Sometimes, things are indeed simple, and you often regard. The best tool is by your side, but you still have to listen to the news, the fax of the booking appraisers, the listening family's lecture, and even buy the mysterious and deceptive analysis software, and the history of human investment in the master "Charles The appearance "threw it aside.
(6) The essence of "Tao's theory" is the philosophical ideology (Part III)
In the previous period, I gave three assumptions of "Tao's theory". I list five aimings that are rich in philosophical mean.
Theorem 1: The three trend of the Tao, the first trend is the most important. It is the main trend - the overall up or downward trend is called a long or short market, which may grow up to several years. The second trend is the most difficult to touch, it is a secondary folding trend - is an important fall trend in the main multi-head market, or rebound in the main head market. Correction trends will usually last for three weeks until a month. The third trend is usually less important, it is the trend of fluctuations every day.
Professional investors always build positions in the direction of the medium term. However, if you want to accurately grasp the medium-term trend, you must understand its relationship with the long-term (main) trend.
Theorem 2: Primary Movements: The main trend represents the overall basic trend, often referred to as a multi-head market or short market. Duration may be within a year, and even for several years. Correct judgment of the direction of the main trend is the most important factor in the success of investment or speculative behavior. There is no known method to predict the continued period of the main trend by 80%.
Although the science and technology and knowledge since the past half century have breakthrough, the psychological factors in the driving market price trend are basically the same as 60 years ago. I think this is a major significance for professional investment or speculation.
Theorem 3: Primary Bear Markets: The main short market is a long-term downward trend, and there is an important rebound during the period. It comes from a variety of unfavorable economic factors, such trend will end after the stock price will fully reflect the worst possible situation. The short market will experience three main stages: the first phase, market participants no longer expect stocks to maintain excessively expanded prices; the second phase selling pressure is the decline in economic conditions and enterprise surplus; the third stage is from Improve stock disappointment, regardless of the value, many people are eager to find at least part of stocks.
Theorem 4: Primary Bull Markets: The main multi-head market is a holistic rising trend, and the average duration is longer than two years. During this time, due to the improvement of economic conditions and speculation, investment and speculative demand increase, and due to this pushing stock price. There are three phases: the first phase, people have resumed confidence in the future; the second phase, stocks have responded to the known company's surplus improvement; the third stage, the speculative boom is coming, the stock price is obviously expanded - the stock price increases at this time Based on expectation and hope.
I believe that the current characteristics of the Chinese market meet the second phase of the characteristics, but this second phase is just the beginning, the second phase of the completion is at least one year to two years, so China's stock market prospect is Unhappy.
Theorem 5: SECONDARY Reactions: The secondary folding trend is an important fall trend in the multi-head market, or the important rising trend in the air market, the continuous time is usually in three weeks until months; during this period The amplitude is "33% to 67%" of the main trend after the end of the previous level of return. The secondary folding trend is often mistaken to be a change in the main trend, because the initial trend of the multi-head market is obviously only the secondary fold trend of the short market, the opposite situation will happen after the top of the multi-head market.
Conclusion: In fact, many principles of "Tao's theory" have contained in all kinds of investment terms used in every day, but the average people did not feel. After studying the basic principles of "Tao's theory", we have an important knowledge and idea, which is to guide us at the fundamental in the securities market.
After understanding these concepts, you can further explore the price trend. After all, if you know what the trend is, and you can know when it is most likely to change, you have actually grasped all the knowledge of the market.
At the end of the year, it is necessary to summarize the operation process in the year. My senior member can describe the current mood with "smile". In their eyes, it seems that it has become easily easy to make from now on YGX from the beginning of the year, and the HNSD in the year, ST and PT, three, four-quarter, etc., can say that this year is exciting to them this year. Even a little surprised year, 500 million yuan in thinking into a million yuan, thousands of yuan have been optimistic, becoming a million yuan or hundreds of millions of dollars, you can do something. My assistants are also optimistic about the trend next year, not I don't look at the rear, but this kind of music, the atmosphere, makes me worry. Yes, we are as good as this year's trend and the first two or three years, which is not difficult for traders who have mastered the right market trend. The excellent experts in the industry should have the same feelings. Even now we have been in our file cabinets next year. What I am most worried is that when our members have, when we should be in turn, the funds of the group have sufficiently affect trends, we are still valid. We have been going forward, and I think about the problem of influencing trends. In the discussion of peers, he insists that the small-scale fund is enough to affect the trend of stocks, not to mention the growing scale . >>> Here, when I think about it, I should also grasp the trend first. After all, most people in the market will not be able to master the trend. (7) Trend is the best friend (first part)
Among the investors I have touched, including some securities companies in daily stock operations, their observations have always stayed in a daily trend. If you still remember our previous two "Tao's theory", you should now understand why those investors who have "working" all day do not make money. "Duo Theory" tells us that daily price fluctuations are the least important factors, which can be controlled by people to have the most valuable thing in investment activities. Those investors who are "stare" all day always pay attention to the most important thing of the most important thing every day, and ignore the most important things - trends.
When I was intervene in YGX last year, a doctor guided me to sell 15 yuan and ridicule me: You don't understand technical analysis? Don't you see this three-year pressure line? I have suffered his ridicule and answer him in silence. Because I clearly spend the main trend, it is the breakthrough of this three-year pressure line determined that the stock price will rise substantially. Of course, we have spent a lot of energy to figure out all kinds of changes in the company's fundamentals. When I saw this pressure line being broken, I have already become a bamboo. If someone puts a day's on-the-year chart and asks me about the future view of the market, the most reasonable answer is: Which trend do you mean?
Surprisingly, most investors (including professionals) often mix the three trends of the Tao in one talk. When you observe YGX, it has already contained three distinct trends in its trend: long-term, it is up; medium trend is flat; short-term trend down. The Doctor is in this case, I have to go out, and I should add code again according to the trend judgment.
The tradant of the company used to draw a technical analysis, and everyone draws different trend lines according to their own understanding of the market. They have based on Jiangn, some according to the orbital line, pressure line, support line, etc., and even have a geometry. There is no doubt that only one person in them is correct, sometimes even not correct.
It can be confident that our success is - Master the basis of the basic data of the company on the basis of the waiting trend line and buy as accurately as possible in the appropriate timing. YGX is doing this; HNSD is doing this; ST is also doing this, which is the consistency of the transaction I mentioned in the early stage. This is also the most important discovery in the past years and I think the most effective trading. skill. This is not difficult to do it. After using the Tao's theory to draw the correct trend line, you can find an exciting purchase point. Many people doubt everything we do, think that with our trading system should not be traded so simple. It is undeniable that in most cases, I have become a follower of trends and can control it better. Regarding the problem of trend, I will continue to talk without reservations. Regarding the operating system problem I use, because of the company's business secret, I can't talk about it, I can only introduce our design principles. In this system, the most important thing is the total energy value. The total energy value can be said to be a four-dimensional technical indicator, including the volume velocity rate, the price range, the time period, the geometric model characteristic factor.
Briefly, after calculation, the YGX energy total value is 8.5--10, the square value is between 72.25 yuan - 100 yuan, which means that YGX's market has a maximum increase in year. Between this square value, of course, this is not 100% accuracy, only 85% of the probability, that is, the possibility of 15% is that the price is not within this square value, which is of course complete for this 15% of course Strategy to deal with. Mathematical support provided by my trading system, I would like to thank my friend Zhao's strong assistance. Of course, this is all the work you have to do after you have mastered the trend, and it is a matter of urgent - or master the trend.
Only when you are accurately determining the trend changes, and correctly set the sale and purchase opportunity, you can buy more short sales correctly to improve the profit or reduce losses. In stock or other financial varieties of market trend, if you look closely, you will find the following very important trends.
Upper Trend - It is made up of a series of continuous rises. There is no exception in each of the rises to create a new high, or transcend the previous period, and the middle inclusions of different types of falls are often confused. The decline of solutions (or callbacks) can bring countless troubles and losses, but they will never fall below the low of the previous wave. In other words, the rise trend is always consisting of a series of price trends that have been raised by high points and low points.
Drop Trend - It is just the opposite of the above. Overall, it is made up of a series of price trends that have declined from low and high points.
Some people may say: This theory is almost every textbook. Yes, there are also textbooks that include securities practitioners qualification exam, but why should we listed it? Because most people did not use it to be used in the judgment of the market trend, they did not apply it to the actual transaction. If you want to win in the investment market, be sure to remember the above-described theorem. They are so simple, important, and universality, can apply any market and any time structure. When you see this, I hope that the readers who are interested in the financial market trading can use the inner world to understand the above content. If you can understand what, you will admire the greatness!
You can only understand the basic truth of the market, you can further enhance your own transaction level, otherwise you will always fall into the chaos, you will always make things that you seem to be very simple in the market, you will always There is no hacklet and others to talk about the market that cannot be grasped (the person in charge of a broker consultation department will not be annoying to discuss the big market every day), you will never leave those stocks in the market, and in Central Taiwan Regularly wear a la carte advice, a securities researcher and an economist holding a laptop.
The result of the final result of the theory of Tao's theory is that the situation is operational, and the top-level operation is the best speculative approach to profit in the financial market. How to determine the previous high points and low, depending on your trading activities are specialized in short-term, medium or long-term trends, that is, are you engaged in short-term or long-term investment or short-term or long-term speculation? Your goal will decide which high point is your most inspected, or which low point you can ignore. Say directly, do you want to stay in the market or 12 months? !
(8) Grasping trend is the core of speculation
Many friends who know how to enjoy football are love to see the Brazilian national team, people always praise the Brazilian skills and high technology. However, the British authoritative sports research institutions have made technical statistics on the important game of the Brazilian team, discover an interesting phenomenon: the middle and long distances of the Brazilian in the whole game are not British people. Germans and other European power soccer less. Why does the Brazilian impression seem to be in an accurate control competition and use meticulous technology? If you use another vision to observe the Brazilian game, you will find that there is an obvious feature in the game is: always try to pass the ball to the weakest position of the opponent, the most difficult position, that is, Which empty gear in the entire course will be very accurately introduced to this position, so that the opponent is very passive, and eventually lost the initiative to the game. The original Brazilian is not deliberately pursue a fixed style, but knows the most reasonable kicking method and reason. They pursue "the most reasonable", please pay attention to this "most reasonable" is to implement an attack on the idea of the opponent on the court, and it seems that the Brazilian is the best follower of the trend of the course.
The trend on this course is very similar to the trend of the financial market. There is no fixed mode on the court. This is the same as the financial market; there is a basic factor in the racket to win the victory, this is the same as the financial market; the shot of the racket needs according to the moment The situation makes judgments and each shooting mode is not the same, this is more similar to the financial market. From this point of view, the follow-up trend is more than just the financial industry is also the common characteristics of many other industries. When you understand and accept this truth, everything is good, because the rules of grasping the trend are very simple and easy to master, the important thing is that you accept this principle.
In my opinion, it is very simple to become an excellent professional trader, as long as you can establish the correct principle of survival in the market and insist on properly use it. The correct principles and concepts that establish a market law are the key to all issues, so I want to explain these words that I think it is very important in the future narrative.
This is why my members make money in the second half of last year, this is the same as the truth of the Brazilian Roman Shot, do not pursue any tradition and fixed shooting mode, with any part of the body (any part of the body Outside the hand) The most difficult perspective to be able to defend the ball into the opponent's goalkeeper is the genius shooter, and this skill is used to experience a lot of unique training to skilled in the field or financial market.
The language of the financial market is to further explain that: as a trader or trading consultant to enter the market, what I am paying attention is not to achieve performance or ST, nor is it concerned about some companies to publish a new project in the securities newspapers. Advances, not paying attention to whether the traded stocks are too large or too small, and will not pay attention to the investment value analysis report made by securities analysts according to the lattice public information (except for unapproved land research reports). The focus of interest is only to all factors related to trends. Of course, this is to say that I don't care about the basic situation of the company. Every business company we have a number, but it is only very little fundamental fundamentals to make a decision-making decision.
When looking at our PT every Friday, our members who have bought members easily joined the "T 5" stock law of the secondary market. The trend of them (including ST, PT) is so obvious, and the theory of Tao's theory gives a very clear and simple bought signal. At this time, you only need to follow up and follow the trend. Go forward, when you make a large paragraph, the market index has dropped a big cut, looking at the vast majority of non-money investors, your market value is quietly growing, this kind of speculation is really Unable to describe it, at this time, making money has become secondary, and the huge fun brought by the correct operation has become the highest enjoyment of financial people. And all this is the important feeling I pursued. In the forebel, I used to talk about the description of the trend of Tao's theory. If you have forgot this, I suggest you re-happiness, in those simple principles, there is a very valuable philosophical idea. They are so simple that I can't make further description anymore. Usually, when the trend is unknown, the venture is returned to avoid risk; the trend is clear, and the position is waiting to rise. The problem is that when people are clear, people have always turned disappear, how to concentrate on the changes in trend, which is so important, today I will further discuss the details of them. First, when we talk about the end of the fell, how to find investment varieties at the beginning of the rise, use the spoken language that I often say: I look for the most sexy "trend.
(9) Looking for the most "sexy" trend
What is the trend of "sexy"? Let me explain with an example of a practical transaction. There is a steel stock in Laiwu City, Shandong Province, which is a very general stock. Its performance has declined year, although it continues to engage in things such as "internal dosing, adjustment structure, improvement technology", but no matter what advanced technology, introduce what international level production line, the profit margin of the steel industry has decided How much profit can you earn. Although it talks about how beautiful the foreground is on annual reports, most of the products must see what is the level of market competitiveness through the parent company. Based on these qualities, it is self-evident in the market. After a beautiful annual report, the stock price started from about 13 yuan, but it was worth noting that the lowest point created after five months did not once in the next two years. The history of history was found, and the history of history was found, of course, this is calculated after repetition. In the next half of the year, the company's share price almost fell back to the original level, and it was worth noting that this stock price did not create a new low. It was 0.13 yuan higher than the last lowest point. If you once again warm the theory of Qianwen The description of the decline and the trend can be found that the decline has been sure, and the upward trend has begun - the stock price has not been innovated again, and the new high has been created in front!
At this point, I have gambling, almost all small and medium-sized investors holding the shares have been deeply desperate. This stock has been finished! But the theory of Tao's theory has told me that this stock's future increase has begun. Why rising? Perhaps the reason for long-term fell, it is also a change in the company. I didn't recommend it to my members' friend because of its rising trend. Because I can't determine how it is rising, I don't like the stock that follows the trend with the wave, I like some stock.
Four months later, the situation has changed. This stock slowly rises, and its trend is not the same as the trend of other stocks in the same period, which shows a completely unusual personality. Use what I often say: it is "sexy" full, its trend is extremely moving, very moving. My ten-year market feels telling me that it should pay more attention to it. My trading strategy system starts working, momentum, energy value, magnification, etc., the final rising interval on the mathematical probability has also been locked. All this work is only technically, at the same time, a large number of market information exchange has also begun. Finally, the company's fundamental changes have changed, at least no one knows what. All this is great, it meets every request for me, the rest is like a cheetah. This company engages in new materials, project investment and group companies involved in the securities industry, small and medium-sized investors will never know below 10 yuan, and the assessment on TV and newspapers will not know that ridiculous technical indicators and Mysterious analysis software will not know that the only small and medium-sized investor can rely on the definition of the trend of Tao's theory. In its four months of its share price, each of its high points, every low position is like the classic graphic in the theory of Tao, small and medium investors have sufficient trends in 9 yuan. Time to buy. When you have the right speculative buy, everything has become so easy and simple.
"Sexy" trend refers to the most beautiful and excellent stocks, and there is no more accurate feelings and ideas for nearly 70% of the market. I just pay attention to the trend that is changing or changing stocks. Perhaps this 30% of stocks will be more and more "sexual touching people"! Of course, the steel stock still has a very "sexy" in the past two days. If you can do it, my customers can make a big profit. I warmly look forward to stock index futures and stock futures to launch as soon as possible.
Pay attention to our regular enterprising portfolio, there are still many radical customers who are still unable to accept this mode of operation. They believe that every stock in our portfolio should start to rise within two days, but the actual situation is that there are almost five stocks in every six stocks in the market; in the market is not good At the time, only one of the six stocks is only one rising. When the market is not good, the short-term investment is a very difficult thing. Especially this short-term daises is incompatible with my thoughts, but in order to meet some of the needs of some customers short-term investment, we are forced to continue to recommend during a sluggish Stock, but it is worthy of our short-term stock stop loss, almost 3%, even if only one is rising, almost will not cause a big loss. However, there are many investors to buy one or two stocks in accordance with the recommendation in the combination, this is to say that people are always in the professional speculation in a standard specialization. Half of the program is executed, and forgetting the other half.
Let us move this kind of mood, or focus on this extremely important issue for the trend. After the correctness of the trend, the overall trading system has greatly improved.
(10) Random fracture in dealing with the market with trends
We can't find the most perfect operating system in the world, but it is still possible to establish a relatively perfect trading system. The correct trend can guide us to find this, it can guarantee that we will resolve risks in time, lock the profits. In the ten trading of the stock, even if you sell it wrong, you must guarantee that 60% will cause loss of the entire trading principal; in the rest of 40%, you have 20% to sell Half mountain waist, there are 20% of you almost selling the peak - the high point of the share price rose. Ok, you can do this is enough, your income will not be low. In fact, in our daily short-term operations, we pursue a systematic winning, and this systematic winning will always be based on the relatively correct judgment of the trend. Now I will lead everyone to enter the world's most confused areas: random discharging trend. This kind of differential dischead is a dynamic price development trend. It is believed that there are countless investors have been frustrated and harmed here. At this stage, the market is constantly inducing you to make mistakes, you may rise; you can fall; you feel that the risk is very big. At this stage, all traders include how much I have made countless mistakes. What is the reason? It seems like another planet, all the physical rules on the earth, etc., I can tell you about it: I don't have any regularity here. This is why countless people who have noblers have studied various methods for hundreds of years to predict stock price trends and cannot be effective in success!
Some people may not agree with this opinion, but can you really predict that each wave of share price is adjusted to start or fall accurately or fall? In fact, it is often the stock price that has already begun or breaks, but you don't know. Maybe you pay attention to the wind, clouds, coastlines, riverbed, mountains, etc. in nature, but you can accurately say how much is the physical length of the coastline or wind, or what changes with now? This is the fractal phenomenon of nature, and the financial market is established by the product of the nature of human beings, and it is inevitably belonging to a natural phenomenon of external expressions. It also has a fascinating fractal image, fractal is no rules, disorder of. Can you use linear thinking or several yuan several equations to simulate computing wind and clouds? Of course, you can't use it, you can't use the financial market, this is why I have elaborated the qualification exam, those arbitrage combination equations look so ridiculous.
Now returning to the deep reason for the market change, most of the trend is mostly agency investor in undertaking or shipping, the consolidation of the consumption of the consumption should continue to rise; contrary, the price should continue to go. Agency investor with information and funding advantages, trying to take out the investment variety during a period of time, and undesirable significantly lower stock prices, they must ship in a strong market, this stage continues to several During the week or longer, there is no obvious trend at this time, which forms a future head. The plan to continue to flock agency investor, continue to establish a large-scale position at this stage, sometimes in order to test the stock price, they have to undertake the share price, they are in the week or months, the silent undertake, formation The context of various forms.
Everything in this stage, you can't predict the next trend, you must use the principle of the theory of Tao's theory to change the trend change to make a decision, I will emphasize it again: Don't try to predict the shape of Baiyun tomorrow and what is different today, you Just see that the black cloud has a rain to take a rain. The language in the financial market is that the trend is really a breakthrough! Finally, one thing, Yakj, formed a adjustment low -37.40 yuan in the trend of Tao's theory in the fourth quarter of Yakj, and was dressed in September last year. If the futures are empty, you can call up to 40 yuan in the stock price. Buy a few contracts, if you don't catch up with a hundred yuan, the profit of these contracts will be a few times the last time. Of course, don't forget to set a stop loss point - 40.93 yuan, why Set? You really understand the theory of the Tao's theory, you will definitely understand! I have said that this year's YGX and HNSD this year are ready, the price of 11 yuan and 8 yuan is currently in the strategic construction stage, from buying to the final selling is a very simple and interesting process, but this Behind the simple process relies on very complex scientific theory and behavioral theory. In order to assist talented friends to achieve a higher realm, in order to find a like-minded analyst, trader, financial psychologist, financial statistics, I am willing to continue to discuss with you.
As the topic is in-depth, what I talk about will be more and more abstract, boring. I believe that people who pay attention to these things will be less and less, because too many people are too dry, too much to pursue short-term benefits. Although I didn't care if I didn't care, I didn't think there was anything. I even felt that the card analyst may be a stupid mistake, but I am still very happy that someone persisted with us to move forward, explore, I know Only a few people can succeed in this area. In the last period, I talked about the fractal problem of the financial market, then what kind of deep meaning is this kind of deep meaning? Today I will reveal the mystery of this.
(11) Charming fractures controlled financial markets
Behind my "customer" has a fundamental factor behind each stock, but I want to explain that the correct grasp trend can make the fundament more clear. For example, in the next six months, I have various reasons to explain that stocks that only produce pesticides will continue to rise, and there is reason to explain that it will not rise, I don't know which explanation is correct, but if you Take a gun to point my head, forcing me to choose the market direction, I am likely to say: Up. From the probability of trend choice, the market considers that the possibility of upward is more than 80%, just like you are ready to take the umbrella to go out because of the dark clouds, but if the rain is not under, you have a rain umbrella and it is possible. occurring. This truth and fractal use is very similar.
In 1973, Mandelo (Mandelbrot) lectured in the French University, the idea of the division and fractal geometry was first proposed. The word fractal is created by Mandelo, its original intention is irregular, and the fractal geometry is a geometry of the research object with an unregistered geometry. Since irregular phenomena is common in nature, the fractal geometry is also called geometry describing nature.
From a whole, fractal geometry is irregular. For example, the coastline and the mountain shape are observed from a distance, and its shape is extremely irregular.
The rules of graphics are the same on different scales. The above-mentioned coastline and the mountain shape are observed from a near distance, and its local shape is similar to the overall form, and they are from the whole to local, they are self-similar. Of course, there are also some fractal geometry, which are not entirely similar. Some of them are used to describe general random phenomena, and some are used to describe nonlinear systems. Mandelo is a large class of complex random geometric objects that cannot be described in the natural world in the nature. For example, the curved coastline, the undulating mountain range, the rough cross section, the fantasy float, the river of the nine songs, and the vertical and horizontal blood vessels, and the eyes of the eyes are full of stars. They feature that extreme irregular or extremely light. Intuitive and roughly, these objects are fractals.
I can only describe the definition of fractal:
(1) Meet the following conditions
Collection A of DIM (a) DIM (a) is called a fractal set. Among them, DIM (a) is the HAUSDOFF dimension (or number of differential numbers) of the collection A, and DIM (a) is its topological dimension. Generally speaking, DIM (a) is not an integer, but the score.
(2) The portion is similar to the overall shape, referred to as fractal.
As the biology is not strictly defined in biology, people are usually a series of characteristics of the living body to explain. The definition of fractal can also be processed.
So why do we study fractal? First, the fractal morphology is generally prevalent, and the research fractal is to explore the objective law of complex things in nature and their internal contact needs. Whele, a famous American physicist: Who is not familiar with fractals in the future, who cannot be called a scientific cultural person.
Since I realize that nature is full of things called fractals, most people pay attention to the most irregular and complex phenomena from we are surrounded by us: the shape of the mountain and the clouds, the distribution of the galaxy in the universe, At home, the results of the financial market price, etc., the results of the mathematical description. A way to get this mathematical description is to find the "model." In other words, some mathematical rules are needed or discovered.
In order to see how the fractal is formed, take a very large chess chess board, and after a queen of the chessboard, she is not allowed to move. The soldiers allow it to move in any of the four directions on the board, starting from the edge of the chessboard, starting with the indication, complete random, or drunken. The direction of each step is selected from the direction of four equal chances. When a soldier arrives in the original queen, it will become a new queen, and you can't move further. Finally, a dendritic, rather than a network of Queen group is gradually formed, called "Witten Sander DLA CLUSTER". Large-scale computer simulation has proven that the DLA family is fractal; they are almost similar.
In the view, fractal art seems to be magic. But there will be no mathematicians to neglect its structure and significance. Many of the basic equations are considered to be part of pure mathematics. There is no use of the real world, and the true natural phenomenon it represents has never seen it. Most importantly, as mentioned, the most active field of applying fractal is in physics, and they have helped handle some very old problems and solve certain new difficult problems.
The final by-product of fractal diagrams is its attraction of young people that is rescuing their interest in science. Mandbrroet sets and other fractals now appear on T Blut and Placards. Many people hope that this will make young people feel the beauty and performance of mathematics, and feel the relationship between them and the real world.
For fractal descriptions I want to be sufficient, the fractal image in the financial market is generally existed, and for this irregular phenomenon and appearance, you can't rely on technical indicators that are established by two-dimensional world and linear equations. It is speculated that the market trend is discounted, apparent that many errors will appear. The greatness of the theoretical philosophy of Taoism lies in that it can filter out many of the messy fractal appearances, and remind you to take the umbrella again in the rain. It is believed that there will be many in the reverse theory in the boom or decline, and will constitute a failure. Similarly, in the messy fractal stages - the narrow discharging stage --- to the construction of the position is also destined 50% of the probability can be successful, any decisions that have not reached 80% probability are what I have to avoid. And now, the stock has begun from the fractal control to start an 80% new trend. Recently, as long as you stick to our members will definitely feel good, they don't have the stock of "meat" in their hands, and there is no high-priced technology stock, maybe someone will remember the 11 I mentioned before. 11 Yuan or so - I call it this year's YGX and HNSD. This kind of cute stocks have not yet fallen, but they have pulled out the big yang line began to break through, which is the stock that I used to be "sexy". In the market professionals still discuss how the general trend will fall, however, when the fundamental is deteriorated, when the Ministry of Securities is constantly encouraged by investors, our members and friends are in my influence. Batch batch. I can even tell me anyone, the bull market may not end - 80% of the opportunity to innovate, all my knowledge and market experience tell me.
(12) Intrinsic factors and characteristics of finance market fractal
In a boring discharier stage, investors continue to repeat various errors here. The characteristics of fractals are disorderly, irregular, if you insist on trading at this stage, your self-confidence will be deeply hit. Sometimes the share price will suddenly rise, maybe you will also see that the volume is very big. When you bite your teeth, the stock price is inexplicably unable to fall, then it is a long time and light, most of the time behind this market feature A variety of complicated reasons, sometimes large investors in order to build a small position, sometimes for other investors to build a position, sometimes for stock, sometimes to give some gifts, sometimes in order to live in some of the urgent needs . If you have a self-made intelligence trying to guess others, I advise you to give up this idea as soon as possible. This kind of reasons behind the incident itself is unordered and irregular. Your actions are like the big guessing the sky, which is different from today, it is futile, so you often often Will see many diligent analysts to delve their complex technical indicators until the night to have a market report for the next day.
Sometimes the volume will generally be large during the stock price rising. But sometimes stocks have risen a lot of space, the smaller the amount, in general, mainly because the large mechanism locks the position. When the company's prospects are bright, while not being understood by the majority of investors, the agency holding a large number of stocks is still constantly relying on the boss of the market to promote the stock price, causing this phenomenon in emerging markets (more China) is less in mature market. In the mature market, when a company is optimistic, the fund manager can disclose his view of the company's value, and publicly discusses the level of building in this stock, because the views of investors in foreign markets are compared. Independence, maybe Buffett is optimistic and heavy stock, Wall Street does not agree. If the value of stocks are recognized, even if the stock price has risen two or three times, the fund manager will still enter the market, so the shares will continue to rise even when the increase is high, if it is in China, there is a mechanism in Xinjiang. The stock even though rumors will also cause small investors and institutional investors' sought after, of course, these characteristics are related to China's overall market development structure. It can be seen that the price increase, its internal reason is not the same, from the whole, the inner factors of the share price are also disordered, irregular. Similarly, the decline in stock prices is also because of various reasons and reasons, these reasons must have a thousand words, and it is necessary for professional investors to focus on a certain reason. You must evaluate these factors to the market overall, and It is not a certain reason that a reason is not aware of these reasons. From the most recent market comment, some professionalism may be a bit lost due to the cause of the loss, I can say that they are at least very professional. They can't get rid of market fractal control, resulting in deviations on the market.
I can also tell you seriously, don't complain about those institutional investors who have published excitement economists and organizing stock prices, all of each market phase and important adjustment positions will have an annoyed speech and empty events. In addition, not only the Chinese stock market, the US stock market is so, the stock market in the world is. Market rules have been told us all decades ago, don't think this time seems to be different from others. Strictly in accordance with the "Tao's theory" and get rid of market fractal control, the bull market and the bear market have any respective respects. For them, the market only does it be entered and the difference is the difference, what other factors Not important and there is no relationship.
We have already spent too much time to discuss those details on transactions, which are exactly some technical problems. And I think the key to the success or failure is just the technical issues of these people, but the objective implementation of the development of the trading strategy and the trading strategy, which is the focus I want to tell in this issue.
(13) Establish a professional trading strategy
The financial securities industry can be divided into two parts in accordance with the Western standard: part is an investment product; another part is an investment service industry. The essentials of the investment industry are mainly the investor (Traders), and the elites of the investment service industry are mainly securities analysts. At present, the books of most securities futures investment methods are written by the securities market analysts, and a few are made by investors or traders. Analytical methods or observation perspectives made by analysts often cannot reach the correct investment strategy. The reasons are three: 1. Traders and analysts with a strong psychological pressure. 2. The trader's analytical method is more reactive, while analysts have more analytical methods more tended to predict. 3. The decision-making basis based on the overall benefits based on the overall benefits, and analysts are more important.
At present, most investment books are highly regarded as subjective text statements and even exaggerated the efficacy of the technical analysis skills used. For investmentists or traders, it is more important to understand the defects and restrictive conditions of their technology. It is possible to reach the correct investment decision making and correct risk control. We have a satisfactory performance, not our trading method is much higher than others, but I can understand where the defects of these methods are. Effectively control it. And the practice of leaving long-term investment operations is impossible to understand this. It is now stipulated that securities analysts are not allowed to invest stocks, just like the Chinese Football Association is not allowed to play abroad. If our securities analyst do not have actual experience, what qualifications are eligible to guide millions Stock people investors go to actual operation. Because my trading strategy is more reactive, there is no understanding of this, and the stock bought two days ago may be sold today, and as investors may ask if you are optimistic before two days ago. Why is it not optimistic now. In fact, this is the reason why most people don't make money or lose money. The market will always be dynamic, and each stock's institutional investor most time is also in accordance with the specific situation, no data adjustment stage trading strategy, Investors If you can't correct your mistakes in time, you only have a compassion to be rabbit, you know the probability of such events is extremely low. This situation sometimes happens that the variety of plan short-term speculation may be adjusted into a mid-line investment or even long-term investment, and its principle is to force the market trend, but to do this. No professional, the system's trading strategy is unable to do.
Professional trading strategies are a complete transaction rules system. A well-designed trading strategy must make a clear provision for all aspects of investment decisions. This provision must be non-dominated, objective, unique, and no different explanations are allowed. Moreover, this complete systemized trading strategy must meet the psychological characteristics of the user, the market applicability of investment objects and the risk of investment funds. The so-called complete system, that is, various decision points in a complete cycle of investment, including entry point, retreating point, re-entry point, and retreating the conditions, there is a clear specific provision, thereby forming a decision chain. The so-called objectivity, that is, the uniqueness of decision standards, if condition A occurs, decision B happens, this causal relationship has uniqueness.
A small number of successful professionals have a complete investment decision system, and in the implementation of specific transactions, their conscious thinking level is the standardization implementation of rational investment or speculation process, and most investment people, their investment decision thinking is emotional Investment implementation or subjective investment implementation, two different ways of thinking have led to different investment results.
Any investor is likely to make money from a short term, from the global concern, the probability of winning from a long time is very low. In theory, investment transactions decisions are like throwing coins to judge the forward, and the correct rate will always approach 50%, but 50% of the winning rate has led to the failure of this investor, the key is "cost" . Investor transaction stock futures must pay a variety of fees. So the final, stock trading and futures trading are a "zero-sum Game", that is, the winner's money from the money.
Now you should understand a terrible fact. In the investment in the business, the employees of investment winners are supported by investment losers; the employment personnel of the investment service industry, including government securities management, shares, trading software vendors, etc. Fundamentally, it is also supported by the lunker. If the loser wants to support all investment practitioners, the loser is not only the amount of the winner, but also the normal operation of the stock market and the futures market.
