For foreign communication vendors that have been bitter, foreign communication vendors, I am afraid I will not be better in the foreseeable 2005.
According to the news of the news from the Development and Reform Commission, it was disclosed that approximately two weeks ago, the Development and Reform Commission has submitted a recommendation report on 3G license issuance agencies.
Report suggestions, 4 3G licenses were issued under the existing pattern, including
One of the moving and Unicom, using WCDMA and CDMA2000 as a network standard; and China Telecom and Netcom issued regional 3G licenses according to their respective NG network business scope, and use TD-SCDMA as a network standard as much as possible .
Due to the reduction in actual licenses, TD-SCDMA technology accounts for main positions, this means waiting for many years of foreign communication equipment manufacturers to launch fierce competitions in limited markets.
Tietong, Wei News No 3G license
According to the arrangement of the Development and Reform Commission, China Telecom will be used in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and the four provinces and cities in Guangdong Province. Trial of TD-SCDMA technology. The trial commercial is carried out in March next year, while formal commercial use is within June next year.
It is reported that the Development and Reform Commission recommended whether to use TD-SCDMA as a 3G networking standard for China Telecom and Netcom as based on the TD-SCDMA trial. If the trial commercial is not good, the "WCDMA TD-SCDMA" mixing network is used to issue regional 3G licenses to China Telecom and China Netcom.
The source said that the Development and Reform Commission may also suggest that TD-SCDMA will change from the original 2.1G band to 800m to meet the needs of Tungtong and Waitong to carry out cluster business, but the above two operators will not get 3G licenses.
When the Telecommunications Research Institute was in an interview with this newspaper, the 3G license was issued to refer to the content of the Development and Reform Commission, because the final decision is still in the State Council.
Yuan Ye, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, refused to evaluate the above report during an interview with reporters, and he said that he has not heard of this report, and the country has no clear attitude towards 3G licenses.
An official requiring anonymous official said that the content of the simple discussion report did not make sense, because all parties discussed the issuance of the 3G license, "and on the government level, this problem has not yet entered Go to substantive operation procedures ".
Everything is "compressed investment"
Senior managers and analysts in the industry believe that in addition to the factors of the TD-SCDMA Standards, the Development and Reform Commission is invested in the TD-SCDMA standard, the compressed investment scale is the main reason for the Development and Reform Commission to finally recommend regional 3G licenses for China Telecom and Netcom.
According to the idea of the above programs, 4 3G licenses, but if China Telecom and Netcom use TD-SCDMA and is defined in the North-South network, then three types of 3G standards are formed.
Wei Jing, analyst Wei Jing, a telecommunications consulting company, believes that regional licenses from China Telecom and Netcom have expressed their wishes to make full use of network resources and avoid over-construction caused waste. She said that three 3G standards have been put into huge R & D funds, involving the interests of many operators and manufacturers. If a certain standard does not allow the network, the loss will be very huge. At the same time, the cost of building 2G networks in China is greatly amazing, nearly trillion. If it is speculated in the current settling of the current telecommunications industry, the cost of reconstructing 3G will also exceed 10 million yuan.
It is worth noting that according to Xinhuanet report, China is most likely to issue 3 3G licenses in the future. The article said that considering the establishment of a 3G network covering the country, investment will approach 200 billion yuan. It is based on huge investment and avoids over-competition, China Telecom, China
Moving, China Unicom, China Netcom 4 major operators separately 3G licensed photos have been unlikely.
Compressed investment means that the size of the market is reduced, and the special government may issue two TD-SCDMA licenses to make many foreign equipment for foreign equipment in China's 3G market.
A high-pass market manager said that the Chinese government should carefully learn the lessons of the Japanese Communication Industry. He said that the Japanese government has refused with international standards in order to support the development of domestic communications industry, one orphaning the use of independent research and development, and finally leading to Japan's communications industry still returning the world's advanced level. Qualcomm has a large number of CDMA patented technologies. The Chinese government supports operators to choose TD-SCDMA standards will make the company dominate the China 3G market. Although Qualcomm is still claiming to have considerable patented technology in the other two 3G standards - WCDMA and TD-SCDMA, the industry is generally believed that Qualcomm will not at least like Unicom's CDMA network, operators, equipment And the terminal manufacturer can charge a considerable patent fees.
A manager of Lucent China believes that the Chinese government should not restrict both China's largest fixed operators only use TD-SCDMA standards after the license is issued. He said that the country can indicate maintaining a certain proportion of TD-SCDMA networks, and most likely WCDMA and TD-SCDMA are mixed. "Because TD-SCDMA current industrial conditions may not be sufficient to support the main technologies supporting two major domestic operators. More directly, whether 3G can succeed is unknown, not to mention bet on an immature Technical. "He said.
An expert from the Ministry of Information Industry Telecom Research Institute pointed out that from the current government's caliber, the reduction of investment seems to be one of the prerequisites for issuing 3G licenses. "The equipment manufacturer is time to reduce the market."
Operators continue?
As more and more industry insiders speculate that the government may control the investment on the 3G network, another point of view is naturally sought: In addition to reducing the number of licenses, whether it should also be considering the same The purpose, while reducing the technical risk brought about by 3G?
Regarding the result of integrated rumors between operators, the "four-in-four" or "six-in-one three" programs have once before Beijing. At the beginning of this month, the government announced that when the three major operators were replaced, similar rumors have begun to suburcase the dark, some senior people are more identified. This is a precursor to telecommunications industrial restructuring.
Goldman Sachs speculated in the subsequent analyst report, for the "balance", the Chinese government may announce the reorganization plan in the first quarter. The analyst of Goldman Sachs said in the report that the existing GSM and CDMA networks in Unicom were split to China Telecom and China Netcom seem to be a feasible approach. In addition to reducing 3G investment, we can balance operators. The power is contrast to reduce competition. The report even asserts that it takes 6 to 12 months of industrial restructuring, so the Chinese government will issue 3G licenses in the fourth quarter of next year.
In fact, some interest groups have long been lobbying the government to coexist the two movements in the hands of Unicom.
The network is split. The view believes that simultaneously operates two different types of networks, for the suspicion of waste, on the other hand, the fixed-line operator is transferred
The market has also built a technical backward PHS network to cause the current chaos of the current China's telecom market. A senior advisor of the GSM Association said earlier, as early as possible, said: "The Chinese government has to send 3G license, and the status quo of Unicom two networks must be resolved."
However, Unicom said the strongest opposition, a senior management of the company said that the principal intention of the unloading Unicom is in the same year to combine the original intention of the telecom market monopoly, "this is actually negative. Decision of the Government on Telecom System Reform.
There are also analysts believe that the split unicom is not necessarily possible, but the idle resources of Unicom are feasible. Anbang Group's telecom analysts pointed out that because of the massive duplication, it has led to a lot of resource waste, causing excessive competition, so the decision-making layer will be quite cautious when issuing 3G licenses. But this does not constitute a reason for the telecommunications industry to reorganize. Because of the interconnection, China Telecom, Netcom rent network operation with "virtual network operators"; or let two companies build a network, "four-in-two", "four-in-one", which implements the change in network, is feasible Program helps to exchange network resources between operators, and live in state-owned assets. Moreover, the telecommunications industry has just been split, and the confidence in the integration and the decision-making of the outside world will have a big impact. The news from authoritative channels indicate that the relevant agencies are demanding opinions and explore the possibility of the next step in the telecom industry. This news seems to be a major blow for the equipment managers waiting for.
