China is expected to fall by 10% next year
(2004-12-28)
(Beijing Comprehensive News) China National Bureau of Statistics said that the housing prices will be expected to fall by 10% next year, but the macro-control policy should continue to prevent real estate development.
Jiahai, deputy director of the investment division of the National Bureau of Statistics, said, 11 months before this year, with the gradual playback of macroeconomic control measures, China's real estate development market has changed significantly, and the housing prices will be expected to fall by 10% next year. However, the real estate development investment is large, and the problem of excessive commercial housing sales price is still not fundamentally solved.
Jiahai said that this year, the "National Bangjing Index" reflecting the situation of the real estate market is 107.75 points from the beginning of the year, falling back to 104.87 points from January to October, and it is estimated that the year-end is expected to rise to the normal level of about 105 points.
There are many problems
From the perspective of market consumption demand, housing potential demand is transforming into effective demand; from land supply perspective, it is estimated that there is still more than 400 million square meters without entering the development stage; from the perspective of funds supply, the source of funds is still relatively sufficient, basically maintained More than 30% higher than the growth rate of development investment.
Therefore, under the conditions of rapid economic development of the current economy and the continuous improvement of market environment, the basic conditions that support real estate development continue to develop have not changed. It is expected that the annual real estate development investment will still be around 23%, and the average sales price of commercial housing is expected to fall back to around 10%.
However, Jiahai also pointed out that the effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation is only the stage of stage, and there are still many problems in the field of real estate development. The first is that the scale is still large. From January to October, the construction area of the national commercial housing reached 1.2 billion square meters, and the total investment of real estate development projects was as high as 40 billion yuan (the same, 831.6 billion new dollars), an increase of 35.2% over the same period last year.
Second, the investment structure is not reasonable.
High-end residential and villas, apartments are too high, low-priced residential and affordable housing development is insufficient. From January to October, the national commodity house completed an investment of 646.1 billion yuan, of which the proportion of affordable housing accounted for a decrease of 6.1% last year to 5%.
"Joint Morning Post"
