Who will stop the Tencent? [2004-12-20] [Author: Cao Zheng] This article includes the following sections: Introduction, Development Review Tencent, Tencent forward-looking development, the existing competitive landscape, Tencent vulnerability analysis, who will take on the task of blocking, etc. Introduction concern Tencent has been for many years In 2000, more than one review and predicted Tencent's article in the community in Wisecast, according to some Tencent's friends, there is still a certain emphasis on their company, but he said to sweat, about Tencent The development trend and income pathway, the prediction and suggestion of Caoz at that time was not marginal. At that time, Caoz, the sensitivity of the business's smell and market, of course, Caoz still still "make money" The problem is slow, but this does not hinder Caoz to continue to have a poor guidelines, at least, slow Caoz and quite smart circles, in terms of IT prediction, it seems not even more bad. Tencent develops a digital thing, it is found on the Internet, caoz doesn't say much, interested friends can visit Ai Rui consulting website (http://www.iresearch.com.cn), where Tencent has been Business development report, with detailed data and chart, is still worth seeing. Tencent has also been quite quite doubts in the development process. Before their income mode is not determined, most industries are dismissive for Tencent's "garbage traffic", even if Ma Huadong has to make the equity, depending on South Africa. A company blood transfusion to maintain the company's continuous investment, but in just a few years, first, the client advertising stripe resource solves the problem of eating, and then solves the development problem through mobile proliferation, Tencent has become the highest value of domestic value. the company. Tencent's development prospective now Tencent has become a terrible force in the domestic Internet. It is not just its performance. Its user group is even more interest, it is not bad, Tencent Cut the portal, in the country within a year, still in the rise; Tencent cuts to the online game, cover the old bodies in the old name, the number of online people has been new; Tencent has a client search, new client Not fully promoted, Tencent web search volume has quietly ranked to the fourth position in China, secondary to Baidu, Google and 3721. According to this trend, each network will feel fear of Tencent. At least few portals have begun to act, but whether it is uc, bubble, search Q, and Tom-Skype, 263 E, have already Certification, shake Tencent QQ, almost unfinished tasks. What will Tencent do? It can be said that relying on the huge unparalleled client resources, all he believes that it can bring convenience to the public, and bring interests to themselves, they are interested in trying, this is almost challenged all the directions. Volkswagen's network company, terrible thing is that Tencent really has such a strength to do such a crazy try, whether it is funding or technology, and the market pathway.
In fact, we now look at Tencent's new version of QQ, which can be drawn, which is not a so-called "instant messaging" client, which is actually a comprehensive user network terminal application integration, communication chat, Search, email, dating, resource navigation, commercial information, file sharing, online community BBS, entertainment portal, and various third-party service providers provide by proliferation services (such as recruitment, office supplies, etc.), etc. Yes, they are shaping such a platform, you don't need to open any other network tools online, including the browser, you can do QQ directly, you can do any network applications, whether communication or resource calls, no matter Is business or entertainment, whether they are provided or third-party provided, they have to make a monopoly basic network application platform operator, they will provide considerable basic applications, the rest of the network, only Provide proliferation services on their platform. A powerful, integrated, cross-platform, monopoly IP Internet data terminal is their true ambition. Let's talk about 3G, 3G era, each mobile node is the IP terminal, and the frequency width multiplexing technology will gradually make "Internet" words into history, a real 3G mobile phone, theoretically 24 hours online, Don't worry about the problem of excessive mobile terminals to IP occupation, IPv6 will guarantee this unaffected), the generated resource occupation, or reasonable billing mode, should be based on effective data transmission, not "connect "Time." (Of course, the final billing model also depends on the conscience of the telecom monopoly and their profit needs. This is not about the technical principle). In the 3G era, data and communication is no longer independent different applications, and will Tended to unify, IP voice is no longer available to provide special equipment and network service providers, and will become a basic operational communication mode. At this time, we will see the role that Tencent can take it, it is terrible, he can Provide users with complete, IP-based data voice video communication services, as well as various forms of data proliferation services, he enables 3G terminals to become a real comprehensive network application terminal, rather than a pure call terminal, More terrible is that he also has a mass of users who can fight with telecommunications. Telecom monopoly mechanisms can control GSM, which can control PSTN because the communication protocols and transmission patterns here are based on a channel monopoly, and the telecom monopoly mechanism can firmly grasp the channel control, but rising to IP layers Application, they are impossible. Unless they set up more metamormed regulatory and control channels, even if this kind of supervision is achieved, this will not be a long time. From the development trend, telecom is not controlled. Maybe some people are not very understanding, Caoz can only say this, now Tencent is penny with telecom, and the future Tencent will grab money with telecommunications, and telecom monopoly has gradually weaken into line suppliers and infrastructure service providers. The above speech data service will generate new monopolies. Tencent is looking to this goal, which is also the meaning of "3G era, QQ" mentioned in the front of the Caoz.
The only competitive pattern now, the only thing that can threatens Tencent, only MSN, MSN's advantage is very simple, the fusion binding of the operating system, so that he can do not have to worry about the problem of installed capacity, now MSN has achieved more than 20% The market share is gradually rising. Here is a fun phenomenon. MS Explorer is no longer upgraded as a separate software product, and the development of the new browser kernel is transferred to the relevant department of MSN, here The signal and QQ are the same, they think that Messenger is an integrated terminal for future users. The browser has no meaningful software, and browsing the kernel will become an underlying component of all applications. Users no longer need a separate browser. And just use MSN Messenger. MSN's problem is that their focus is in Europe and America, China has always been unhappy, whether it is the construction of entertainment channels, the construction of the game channel, and related various entertainment applications that attract netizens, it is far behind Tencent. And in the short term, according to MS thinking habits, they will not go to this application with Tencent. After all, their main opponents on the global level are still there wheng. Yahoo Tong is as disappointing, but not mentioned. Langma UC is something that makes people look bright. If this is not the case, Sina will not give up the garbage product "there is also a strong research", and use heavy gold to acquire, Langma UC is very lucky to use QQ stop registration One-end time of the strategy mistake, and take the lead in launching applications such as online games, user communities, it seems to be very good, but what is this? In fact, Langma's existence and development is not to block QQ, but help QQ development. In fact, for QQ, the monopoly products like QQ, they don't have to intend to compete with which function point, or which app is taken first, as long as they stay enough Wake-up and attention, any similar features and applications, there is no threshold for them, you can provide and extend at any time, so Langma UC regrets that the new version of QQ is almost did not give him any space, Its features and applications are all being borrowed and imitated by QQ. IMU is compatible with the sale point, through the development of the league, is also a good idea, but it is only a reduction in the threshold, and cannot be a selling point. Myim has tried it for many years, and there is no breakthrough. The IMU is also What is the idea of seeking breakthroughs, but what they can bring to the alliance? There is no truly valuable application model, just relying solely on some simple alliance mode, this alliance will be struggling. Tom-Skype and E Tong are two eager to have a very naked thing. They are naked, they want to cut into the voice business of traditional telecommunications, but it is clear that there is no extensive user group support, there is no sufficient resource reserve, only relying on a little technical highlight. Their leader is just a flowers. Tencent QQ has used the GIPS voice compression kernel in the latest version, theoretically, the same effect as Skype. The effect of video is improved, and I believe it is only a matter of recent, Tom thinks Skype can help them sit and enjoy it, and I didn't expect Tencent's chasing speed. Not giving them a chance.
The rest of the products are also taking advantage of "emule eDonkey", "POCO" application currently has a fairly fixed crowd and user, but the application mode of QQ does not conflict directly, and QQ does not hit them. The market, more is not the reason for technology and resources, but not to take this insurance, once this gray mode encounters some policy restrictions and regulatory restrictions, there is a possibility of being banned and blocked by the whole, QQ will not take themselves Golden silver user group tied such a gunbophoto, which is also a robust form that can be understood. One of the conclusions here is that any "technical leader" that relies on functional or some uncomfortable "technical leaders" is competing with Tencent unless it is looking for a neutral block from the legal edge. In fact, as Tencent said, from the business competition, Tencent's real enemy only has themselves, as long as they don't make mistakes, other competitors just promote Tencent improved catalysts, do not constitute a blocking strength. Tencent's approach can be very simple. Sitting to see those who have a miscellaneous competitor to push out new, see who's new function failed, they took lessons, see who's function is widely recognized, they can also be short In terms of imitation and chasing, competitors have become an experimental field for market assessment. So Tencent doesn't need to pursue perfection, as long as the competitors have no temper, but can not drive to kill, always encourage competitors to make some tricks to challenge him, in order to make them half-time, the new spiritual machine, produce new power . Look at the official said, the Tencent is not invincible in the world, what do you say? In fact, Tencent is a commercial company as a commercial company, a huge entity that is targeted by market value as a goal, inevitably exists, there will be its soft ribs and problems. Grab these issues can get a clear idea. Tencent's weakness is actually a shortcomings, but it is possible to make some competitors seek some places in the breakthrough point. There are approximately the following points. Attent, the core interest is, the client becomes an unhaneous fortune, Tencent It is impossible to abandon the control of the client software. For some of the previous plug-in QQ, because shielded some business functions, there is still a negative impact on Tencent's business, and it is still easy to upgrade frequently, and some business, Legal and technical means to prevent the flood of those plug-in instant messaging clients, but in a sense, the emergence of plug-in or compatibility clients is inevitable. We look at the extension of online games, you can see some clues. Unlike online games, the core value of online games is on the server, while Tencent's client carries too many business value. However, different people's differential needs of the client have become an important issue that plagues Tencent's development. Tencent has now consciously launched multiple client platforms, including RTX, TM, and QQ, in fact, it is already aware of this crisis. . However, let Tencent are embarrassed, what is needed, the three versions are still not enough. 2. For the expectations of financial statements and investors, the utilitarian tendency is related to this problem and the previous problem is related. The user has generated more and more dissatisfied dissatisfaction with several standard clients provided by QQ. Because the client's usage problem, more is the discourse and playback of some ads, which are not adding, this is similar to several mainstream portals because of the indicators of the financial statements, some professional managers have Dai Ze. The actions of fish, killing chickens, including some "over-form" advertisements, and some non-controlled broadcasts, etc.
In addition, Tencent can't suddenly significantly reduce his membership service charges, which also brought certain living spaces to competitors. No matter in any case, the free service will always be easily pushed than the charging service. 3, you can't pay attention to narrow score due to the huge and user of the target customer base, and also because Tencent's current performance is high, they can't pay attention to the narrow business appeal, because this aspiration is five-flowers eight, thousands of strange. For example, Che Youhui, Alumni Association, Owners Club, Law Firm, etc., will hope to combine instant messaging platforms and their community forums, user databases, providing a platform for their communication methods, but obviously, for these Miscellaneous business appeal, Tencent can only provide simple common functions, without providing professional data interaction platforms, no matter from cost / return considerations, people's investment, influential considerations, will not do it. In fact, this series of narrow markets have no people to really excavate. This is true that IMU includes a bit idea to push the league. The conclusion here is that Tencent's weakness comes from his utilitarian, in fact, commercial companies are always interested, that is, these weaknesses, not a shortcoming for business competition, and his main competitors will have The same weaknesses, and those who can partially eliminate these weaknesses, often can only be small, very influential, narrow, and these entities usually do not have effective threats to Tencent, so they see weaknesses, does not mean Ability to block Tencent. It is like Hao123 traffic, and it is impossible to block Sina. Who will take a responsive and responsive? The previous conclusion is that under the premise of Tencent, he did not have a complete eagerness in Tencent, and the fish is still in the case of the fish; all, rely on a business company, challenge Tencent through a certain function or a technology The behavior is actually very vivid, can only be a paving stone, Sina, Sohu, Netease, Tom, 263, and domestic network companies, almost tried, and one will jump below It will be grand, but the grand money is more, challenge Tencent QQ, I am afraid it is very vivid, and Tencent is preparing to challenge in the game field. This battle will look very well. Can Tencent? The grand interactive game is not optimistic, but QQ's dominant position is not so easy to lose. So who will stop QQ? We can look at such an example, the most cattle B software companies in the world, master the most personal computer and even low-end servers, do not say, is MS. Who is challenge MS? Too many giants have tried it, they have no real. And really brought the greatest trouble to MS, Linux, Linux does not belong to any commercial company, and even the pure Linux is not commercial products at all, but this open-compatible model has created countless collaboins, open organizations, There are commercial companies, even IBM, Oracle's giants gradually join, this kind of open source, open alliance power, far greater than the power you can generated by any commercial company, at least at low-end servers On the market, the most important blocking of MS is from Linux. If you only rely on Redhat, Debian is a company that is not likely to flies so long, but the power of the Linux community, let MS sleep.
