Preface: IBM is a respectable company, in the history of their long development, has created too many miracles, establish too many of the first, how many China IT engineers, is in the worship of IBM and admiring In this, it also includes caoz; so when Caoz throws such a view, there is even quite longerous, is it true? The IBM, which is glorious in the world IT history, is it really like Caoz understanding? Caoz would rather it is wrong, I wish IBM will then make a strange army, and the heavy wind is swindled.
Several little stories:
That is still a few years ago, huge IBM is launching their personal computer, a university has not graduated, wearing a thick eyeglasses, young people wearing casual casual, come to sell their software, or more Specifically, it is just an ideal about the software. This young man is confident. If there is a hanging river, it is clear that IBM's management personnel. "So, how much is you ready to sell your software?" "" This, you No need to pay for the software, just give me a computer, I will pay a license fee, "Is it a good suggestion, we don't need to bear you? The risk of software quality, if your software user feedback is not good, we decided to stop pre-installed, don't you pay it again? "" Theoretically this ". So, IBM's manager promised this to look very costly and fair, and the first fee was paid, and MS DOS1.0 began to come out, so quietly, in the unintentional intercity of IBM, "banknotes door "Mr. opened a huge industry, a unrelated to the hardware platform, universal operating system field. And this area, it also directly contributed to the birth of the "compatible machine" concept. Until for several years, IBM glances to see the MS-based deskwind, Dell's milk stinking kid actually started with them in the student dormitory, they The essence of the transaction is suddenly realized.
Still IBM, or MS, a very small investment, a very large R & D plan begins, this is OS / 2, MS's Windows 2.0 after crazy speculation, bringing users to endless troubles and unbearable faults Rate, complaint, the market reaction is constantly, "Banknotes" begins to doubt whether his own independent operating system has enough markets, and at this time, the generous IBM has once again found them again. "We noticed you." The technical achievements made on the Windows platform, but it apparently requires companies such as IBM to provide more professional technical support, maybe we can make better products together, for IBM's kindness, in the market MS naturally refuses to miss, the two companies teamed up with the development team of genius gathering, no matter how it see, there is no failure, so that Mr. "Banknotes" declaration, with IBM cooperation OS / 2 Platform is the only popular multi-general operating system in the future. Obviously, IBM also convinced that there was a special team of MS, when the driving of several technology geniuses, IBM was still in the dream, until the shocking MS WINDOWS 3.0 is born in the air, IBM is like a dream. The cooperation between OS / 2 and MS did nothing, IBM has developed several years in independently. This innate shortage and lack of life, finally died. This side is the release of Windows 3.0, and all of all the competitors have laid the oligarchy in the individual PC operating system market. The meaning of the little story is very simple. IBM is not every choice, it is not always unfavorable, maybe his achievements are more easily remembered, but there is always a scar like Os / 2, constantly Benedrew by people.
Talk about the PC business:
Many people evaluate this transaction, based on such mental, IBM cut off the sectors of the loss, and also earned a cash, got rid of the debt, and it is a wise martial art. But change your point of view, no matter the loss of Lenovo (this is another topic), IBM is really because of the meaning of the implied decisive, will the god machine will sell PC business? If I 's IBM is good at operation, how can his PC business lose money? Don't say this is a big environment, the same big environment, DELL has done how much percentage of IBM? How many real gold is made? !
The PC market industry is not a sunset industry. The key point is that IBM's exit is not active, but passive, it is liability, loss of loss, why do two analysts suggest that IBM throws away PC business, IBM It is not that they don't care, but they have been thinking about making the PC business to return to life, even if they can do the flat or small loss, IBM will never give up this fortress, this gives up, it is too big for IBM, until this year They can't do it. The pressure of investors, the pressure of cash flow, they have helplessly choose the most counter-policy, with the most primitive, clumsy approach, and sell it to a Chinese company, which is the overall brand of IBM is Very big (hereinafter referring to this major harm to IBM's future performance trend), IBM can only do such choices only in the case of hunger, unavailability, only through this point, There is a considerable crisis in IBM. If you make a metaphor, CAOZ can do such a metaphor: a patient who has suffered a serious illness, cutting a kidney and rehabilitation, you look very good, but his rehabilitation, it is already a big internal injury inside. The strength and vitality of the body have already played a lot of discounts.
We can look at Ericsson, who has been a moment, after selling their mobile phone business, gradually fading out the public vision, in fact, the business they reserved and strengthened "high profit added value", there is no problem improve. Ericsson selling mobile phone business is helpless, IBM sells PC business is actually the same.
Thinking IBM's profitability
Of course, many people will don't think about caoz. Who said that IBM's performance is not good, in fact, IBM's benefits are very considerable, there is a considerable gain, the server field, consult service field, high performance software field, etc. ...
First of all, CAOZ acknowledges that there is very good thing in IBM, including the notebook business that is forced to sell, and its influence and reputation are top scratch on several continents. But even if this premise, CAOZ still says that IBM's profitability is really a worries!
One: IBM hardware and software technology, impeccies! Whether it is a desktop, or a notebook or a server, or their DB2 database, WebSphere middleware, etc., it does not deny this premise when caoz does any conclusion.
Two: IBM's business achievements, more is to build in a brand, which is the public to IBM's trust, but the more high-end, not familiar to the public, this brand The impact on purchasing decisions is greater, we can see that the more high-end fields, the better the sales performance of IBM. At the low-end, in the field of relatively familiarity, IBM is defried in the field, the IBM is full line, the PC business, the low-end server market, not only Dell, HP and other brands, Supermacro Powerleader these INTEL architectural second-line brands also have the first choice for merchants who have a low-cost, quality and stable product. In the field of software, IBM also has only high-level enterprise products, DB2, AIX, and WebSphere, etc., there is no embarrassment, complex things, and Lotus under the old river day under IBM, IBM has never been able Introducing a platform product that allows the public and ordinary programmers to be familiar with, OS / 2 failure, is not an accidental phenomenon for IBM. Now popular technical nouns, ". Net" is MS, Java is Sun, IBM? Can only shout "We support Linux". In high-end fields, users have relatively regardless of their own judgment and comparison, they can't understand the technical details and practical application effects of various products, and their failures that may lead to huge investment plans, so choose a trustworthy Brand, the most secure for them, but at low ends, in some less mysterious applications, users are more willing to believe in their own comparisons and judgments, in such an atmosphere, some Yue users are more Grasping the market, rather than technology leading products, IBM's disappearance, with them, "self-centered", "tall" mentality, their view is "The product I launched is the most cattle B, but users I like those cheap, fancy garbage products, this is not our fault. " As a result, mass users are getting farther and farther away from IBM.
Third: Can the high-end server market meet the lasting development of IBM?
The popular statement is that IBM can do not take into account the public's point of view, as long as he can grasp the high-end, it is a first-class company, but the truth is, the so-called "high-end market", how much is it?
The development of the world's server procurement market is in the Asia-Pacific region, and the leading dragonheads that drive the Asia-Pacific regional market is China, congratulations on IBM, and the server market in China is also a prestige. Protect the grades. I don't know how others look at this market. Caoz can be sure, China's current server procurement market, in the high-end field, full of shady, bribery, rebate, and waste. Only the last item, Caoz does not deny that in some core business rooms, the IBM's large host is diligent, and the hardships of the difficult data processing business will play an irreplaceable role. However, the actual effective use rate of the IBM host, if you put it in China, Caoz bet is absolutely less than 20%! Caoz teaches a nearly idle telecommunications room, tens of millions of equipment, including two huge IBM hosts. But the same business volume, if CAOZ is planned, playing 300% of the application margin, 500,000 equipment invests more than enough, two sets worth millions of IBM hosts, using two million PC servers (where One does not need to be used, you can make backups can be relaxed! The glory of the IBM high-end server in the Chinese market is to "black curtain, rebate, bribery and waste". It is to satisfy the profits in some supervisor leaders to meet the national wealth. For the premise of IBM blindly, the Chinese market is in this world, and the world is on the word "resource waste", in fact, the situation is not much better. The fact is that there is an amazing waste phenomenon in the world, even higher than the IBM high-end server procurement, that is, although IBM has very good technology and production capacity, but they sell it User, it is often a product that seriously exceeds the actual business needs of users, IBM's profits, from users of the blind worship of IBM, from users who don't know how to have cheap and more choices. This foundation is very unresolved. The IBM myth of the high-end server will not continue. Some reports show that the market of high-end servers will gradually shrink, and it also proves this. After all, it is really not enough to do much with high-end applications. Or enough to support the super dinosaur enterprise such as IBM.
Another very important trend is that even if it is a real high-end calculation area, due to the popularity of distributed computing technology, the improvement of cluster technology is greatly reduced, and the demand for "super host" is greatly reduced. A typical example is The so-called trillion server of Lenovo is a typical Intel architecture-based server cluster technology. Regardless of investment, scalability, stability (with redundant cluster with fault tolerance and fault, automatic switching), smooth upgrade, cluster mode is superior to centralized host mode. Unfortunately, clusters are often built from low-end servers, in the low-end server market, IBM's market share is also bad.
Four: Talk again, IBM consulting services
IBM no longer said that he is a device manufacturer, a technical product provider, and saying that he is a service provider, in which consult services become another highlight of them! Traditional companies need informationization, and informationization requires professional consultation, listening to the chapter, the financial statements are also a grouse. There seems to be no reason to question this direction.
But do IBM is competent? IBM is the maximum advocator of "e-commerce", but the world's most successful e-commerce application is completed under the consultant of IBM consultants? In the enterprise that uses IBM e-commerce program, how much is "good results", and how much is "so", how many of them are "the best, why,". " The ridiculous thing is that the world can make full use of the Internet, achieving high-value e-commerce marketing, exactly Dell, Dell uses the main opponents defeated by e-commerce, exactly IBM. As an actual failure case, what qualifications are IBM teaches others to do electronic marketing? Lookup officials also said, management consulting is not only e-commerce, but also information management within the enterprise, thereby enhancing corporate operating efficiency and reducing operating costs. However, in this respect, IBM is also a kind of lack of man. The failure of the IBM PC business is not only sold, but also because the operating cost is high, the profitery of the high-end market covers the abnormal operational cost of IBM, the unreasonable disadvantage of enterprise resources, but in the low-end market, this The disadvantage has been revealed, IBM can enhance the efficiency of customer enterprises? Effectively assist enterprises to reduce operational costs and achieve the most reasonable resources of resources? Still do your business first. Enterprise management consulting this market is really vast, but what customers need to learn to IBM? Do you want to learn how to make a mass loss in a huge loss, then pack a good price?
Five: Go back and say IBM abandon PC business
The foreman is said, IBM is passive, helplessly abandoned the PC business, the abandonment of this business, the vicious impact on IBM brand, which proves that all IBM attempts to save PC has failed, proved that there is not good The IBM has been old, proves that IBM can't make his loyal employees have that kind of relief that can last. When this confidence crisis diffuses like dominoes, all of the IBM's business will be implicated, and some customers who are ready to purchase IBM servers may worry, maybe a certain day, these servers can continue to maintain by a Indian company. Come on. The foregoing said that IBM can be unimpeded in all high-end, profiteering markets is that users have a blind trust of IBM brands, and this reliable discount will be reflected in their purchase options. . Those financial analysts in Wall Street, they only know how digital and financial statements, so they can't see that the loss of PC business is not just a cold, simple loss data. It is hidden behind that is the rapid weakening of IBM decades. In any competition in IBM, the weakening of this brand will directly lead to the diversion of user purchase decisions, coupled with IBM's high cost, institutional bloated, system rigid, lost the IBM giant of brand advantage in various fields It will face a very severe competitive situation.
in conclusion:
