The dollar plunged risks have been received, and they have eased because of the US election and oil prices, and the recent factors have repeatedly highlighted due to the factors such as Bush and the US Finance Minister. All sectors are both anxious to have a more concerned that the risk of plunge risks is again, and more confusion is lacking in effective countermeasures. As the dollar fell again, China's huge foreign exchange reserves were increasingly prominent.
Double deficit deterioration leads to long-term decentness of the dollar
In fact, the depreciation of the new round of US dollars has begun since 2002, so far, the US dollar against the euro exchange rate has reached more than 40% from the high point, and the yen exchange rate has also dropped about 20% from the most recent high. Moreover, multi-predictions are determined that this situation will continue for a long time.
The reason why the US dollar has formed long-term depreciation, the most fundamental reason is that the US "double deficit" problem is unprecedented. The first is that the fiscal deficit has increased dramatically. The Clinton government has achieved great success in cutting the federal fiscal deficit. In 2001, Bush was a $ 127.3 billion in surplus in 2001. Soon, due to large-scale tax reduction, economic recession leads to fiscal revenue and anti-terrorism, Iraq's war has increased dramatically, the US fiscal situation has deteriorated sharply, and the 2004 fiscal year federal fiscal deficit has reached 413 billion US dollars; The debt balance has reached more than 75 million US dollars, accounting for more GDP's proportion of the internationally recognized warrules (60%). Secondly, the frequent payments are unprecedented. The large number of frequent accounts of the amount is a biggest factor threatened the stability of the dollar. In recent years, the US often pays unprecedented, and it has become the biggest risk of dollar plunge. From 1992 to 10 years in 2001, the US regular balance of payments was $ 189.9 billion, while 2002 and 2003 increased to $ 47.39 billion and $ 530.7 billion, expect to break through $ 600 billion in 2004.
The formation of long-term depreciation trends in the US dollar is also driven by other factors. Among them, it should be concerned about the significant reduction in Direct investment. The US dollar can keep the currency value under the conditions of the huge deficit of frequent payments, and one of the main reasons is that the rapid growth of foreign direct investment has basically ensured the overall balance of balance of payments. 1998, 1999 and 2000, foreign direct investment reached $ 174.4 billion, $ 283.4 billion and $ 314 billion, respectively. However, the global direct investment has fallen into a low tide, and the direct investment in the United States has also decreased significantly. In 2003, it was reduced by 44.9% over the previous year. This makes the US often balance of balance of payments, and the risk of dollar plummete is further increased.
The risk of dollar plunge is inhabitation
Before the end of this year, the US dollar depreciation situation was once alleviated. The main reason is that the market may change the internal and external policy of the United States after the market. With November 2, Bush's continuum, especially the various statements issued by the US Finance Bank, and the response from Europe and the European government, and the financial community have lost the market to change the United States to change internal and external policies and major powers. Prevent the expectation of the dollar, the shadow of the dollar plummeted again. On November 17th, the US dollar against the Euro and the yen exchange rate fell below 1.3: 1 and 1:105. And there are many predictions that the depreciation situation of the dollar is accelerating, and may even plummearize to 1 euro!
The risk of dollar plunge risks increases, at least because of the following judgment: First, the Bush administration may continue to implement a financial policy of tax cuts and expand military expenditures (anti-terrorism), and the financial deficitability of the boulder will be further deteriorated. Second, the Bush administration is in the face of the depreciation of the US dollar, and the oral emphasizes to adhere to the strong US dollar policy, but there is always no initiatives. This Snow is visiting Europe, but only requires the European countries to take measures to promote economic recovery to solve the problem of US trade imbalances, and seem to push the responsibility of the US trade deficit and dollar depreciation to Europe. Third, "Oil Dollar" is an important factor that supports US dollar stability, especially the Middle East countries, the US dollar settlement, oil export funds, have played a decisive role. Bush means that the opposition of the United States and the Islamic world will further increase, and the results may lead to the proportion of the Middle Eastern oil exporter to increase the proportion of the euro settlement, which will cause severe impact on the US dollar. Fourth, although the US dollar has depreciated sharply to the Japanese, the Japanese authorities have taken great efforts to interfere with exchange, and the yen will attract value. Also accompanying the Japanese economic recovery momentum (in 2004, the actual economic growth rate of Japan is expected to reach 3% to 4%), the Japanese government has reduced intervention of foreign exchange markets. 10 months before this year, the Japanese authorities have not had any intervention in the foreign market, and the 2003 intervention volume has reached 329 trillion yen. As of the end of September, my country's foreign exchange reserves reached 514.5 billion US dollars, creating a new high. Among them, new foreign exchange reserves in January to September reached 111.3 billion US dollars. The population of the US dollar is bound to cause huge losses in China holding huge dollar reserves, and the author's recommendation must take effective measures to respond. But the problem is that in the face of increasingly increasing dollar plunge risks, we have almost all in all optional countermeasures, and the situation in the country.
First, in foreign exchange reserve policies, we will continue to have a loss of dollar depreciation. According to the International Monetary Fund estimation, the US dollar depreciation will enable East Asian economies to suffer from a US dollar reserve loss, while large-scale reducing the US dollar is bound to accelerate the plummet - in fact, the US dollar exchange rate To a large extent, it is supported by the huge dollar reserves headed in the middle day.
Secondly, in the RMB exchange rate policy, continue to hang a larger RMB appreciation pressure with the US dollar, and once the umbrella with the US dollar will suffer from frequent wave of exchange rates, the export trade supporting China's economic growth will also be seriously affected. .
Third, in foreign trade policies, reduce the US trade surplus will lead to deterioration in China's overall trade balance. China's national trade surplus is $ 54.78 billion this year, while the overall trade surplus is only 393 billion US dollars; on the other hand, it does not reduce the US trade deficit and affects the United States to realize trade balance, because China is the United States. The first big deficit source country! ! !
The risk of dollar plunge has also led to the advancement of Japo's main countries: preventing the US dollar from depreciation, strong dollar is bound to continue to deteriorate; listen to the depreciation of the US dollar, the export shrinkage caused by the decimal value of the currency may be buried to the economic recovery that has just shown the improvement.
The United States may fight the economic war, the United States wants to dominate the world, to defend the World Economic Center, reach your own purpose, stop China's development, not talking!
Is China ready to take a shotgun? ! ! !
Although economics is not simple, it is never like some economics textbooks or the paper math formulas in the paper, and the calculus is so complicated. This article is short and thousands of words, which is enough to understand many of the problems of modern international economies. highly recommended!
Regarding whether the renminbi is appreciated, there are a lot of online debate, some can't help, some can't help but lose the Chinese people. It makes sense, but it lacks the depth of theory. I don't understand that the economy is that there is no common situation, and there is no regular basis. I hope this article can be broken for the point of view. In recent times, the topic of the US and Japan's pressure to increase the appreciation is a hot spot. US and Japan accuse the Chinese government to intervene in foreign exchange freedom, requiring China to implement floating exchange rates, and release capital controls. China is determined or euphemistically rejected. To make a clear this question, you must first talk from gold. Everyone knows that human initial currency is gold and silver. Gold and silver are not easy to deteriorate, and the output is not a lot, easy to cut, becoming a wealth symbol accepted by all countries. At that time, European colonists had a fanatical confusion in gold, and they were looking for an important purpose of the new mainland to find gold. Later, many languages were talked about this history, most accused capitalist naked plunder wealth, and conduct crimes of capital of capital. In fact, if the European as a whole is relatively isolated, that is, if the plunder is mainly used in Europe, then these gold have not been able to talk about what original capital accumulation, but It is just equivalent to currency expansion. Simply put, European gold has increased, like today's multi-print banknotes, mild golden expansion can stimulate the economy, and excessive golden expansion will only make the economy.
Of course, if the total gold is not growing, just like today's central bank to stop the banknote, the economy will still be stagnant because there is lack of sufficient currency.
Gold is very suitable as a currency on its texture. But it is not all required for currency. This is reflected in its supply. The supply of gold is naturally determined, sometimes there are fewer times. The development of the national economy often requires a stable currency supply. In particular, when the world economy has developed to a certain total, gold will never keep economic growth, but become the economic constraint.
Banknotes began to appear during the evolution of currency. The first banknote is a borrow. Yinzhuang (equivalent to today's private bank) issued a banknote, people who hold the banknotes can exchange bank or gold in the villages of the silver. Since the banknotes may be replaced by gold or silver at any time, each Yinzhuang must dare to make money when there is an equal amount of gold or silver. That is, everyone often hears: distribution banknotes should be based on gold foreign exchange. Of course, this statement reflects the reality at the time. Some studies have also used this sentence to explain today's monetary policy, that is, Hui.
During the process of issuing banknotes in Yinzhuang, you can find yourself more money than gold or silver? ? Because banknotes are impossible to exchange into gold. Especially for those big silver, their banknotes are good for their reputation, and even directly like gold and silver, people don't care to be redeemed into gold and silver. In this way, the banknotes emitted by the Yintzhuang far exceed their golden silver. This is the beginning of the credible currency. It means that the currency can be printed in the air. But no matter whether it is still, this expansion is done through credit. So many economic scholars persisted: even if the currency can be created in detail, but can only be expanded in a credit. This kind of saying has no theoretical basis, I can predict that if the currency fiscal policy is to be reform, then the first breakthrough in the currency is released.
Since Yinzhuang distribution banknotes can exceed its actual wealth, as long as there is no surge, it is essentially of these extra wealth. This is similar to the currency tax of the modern country issued banknotes. At the same time, banknotes are released by private, which is also not conducive to the national macroeconomic regulation and control. Therefore, in the evolution of currency, the state began to concentrate on banknotes. The state issued a banknote, which was originally a place with gold as a place, which is how much gold has to have a few banknotes, and banknotes can freely redeem gold. But later, with the development of the economy, the total demand in money increased, the gold began, and the country had to issue excess banknotes outside the gold reserves. At this time, the golden position crashed. Later, gold became an important payment method in the international payment, and the country feels necessary to master itself, so the state began to terminate banknotes and gold free exchange, and limited gold is used for national control. This will enter the thorough credit monetary era, and the gold has exited the circulation field as a domestic payment method. The country issued banknotes completely according to their own needs and gain huge profits of issuance banknotes. Because they pay paper, it is printed.
Based on the same principle, the international foreign exchange market is also on the same evolution path.
After World War II, countries will transfer gold to the US Central Bank, and the United States puts a beautiful circle in accordance with a certain proportion of gold. Countries have accepted Metail for the world's general currency. This process is relatively fair, because the United States should be strictly in accordance with its gold reserves, and countries can freely extract the US gold with the Metail, so there is no exavregation to the wealth of the country. But soon, due to the rapid development of the world economy, don't say that the US gold reserves are the world's total gold production, and the United States must meet the needs of all countries as foreign exchange reserves and the needs of the world currency. Exceeding the gold reserves to print the US round. When talking about this history, to correct an error, it is a large number of US printing, to solve its foreign exchange deficit, and it is not necessarily due to the decline of the US economy. Even if the US economy does not recession, the development of the world economy will also prompt it to issue a Meinkle outside the gold reserve. In particular, the faster the United States's own economy is developing, the more you have more in the needs of Multi-printing. If the US economy is in the surplus, then the Meyuan can't send it to the world, and it will become a world currency.
Due to the total amount of the US round far exceeds the US gold reserves, the beauty of the US is no longer able to maintain the previous ratio, and the Meyuan has to depreciate. At this time, the world has set off a wave of wine and extracts gold. If you let go, the US central bank's gold may be exhausted, so the US government announced that the US government is announced, stopping the redemption of gold and gold. This is the collapse of the Bretton Forest System.
The collapse of the Bretton forest system is not due to the economic recession caused by the economic recession, but the inevitable historical trend of the world economy.
Although the Bretton Forest System collapsed, the US is still unhaustible as the world currency with its historical practice and powerful economic strength. And this time, Meiyuan's hegemony began, and the Meyuan began to be an important means of seeding other countries in the United States.
The image said that the US is similar to the World Central Bank. The US release of the United States has become a currency of the credit native. It can be printed in the printing of the Meiyuan, used to purchase the physical wealth produced by its country. That is to say, the United States can use blanket to exchange its country's raw materials, as well as other physical products. Some people will say that when the United States purchases its national products with Meiyuan, other countries have won the Mengyuan, and other countries can hold the US products in turn to buy American products, so there is no problem that US hegemony is not overweightened. This problem involves two aspects. One aspect is closely related to the problem of the current depreciation, this will be explained later. Here I am talking about its first aspect, is the currency problem of Meiyuan.
Although countries with Mengyuan can purchase products to the United States, thereby enabling exchanges with the United States to exchange, on the one hand, it is an important foreign exchange reserve for various countries. As the economy has increased, reserves will gradually increase; on the other hand Meet as the world currency, it must circulate in other countries in the world, and the faster the world economy is developed, the faster the total amount of circulation in countries. So from local, constantly there is a beautiful circle to flow out or flow into the United States, but overall, or in the United States to output a beautiful circle outward, enter the physical wealth in the inner. This is what everyone sees why it is often the real reason for the United States. This long-term stagnation is a US round other than the United States, which is a currency tax that the United States charged countries. With the privilege of the monetary tax, the United States directly plunders to the country wealth. Therefore, when you see the United States to assist in other countries in the world, it should be known that it may only return some of the wealth from these countries. At the same time, everyone will see the United States deficit, and the United States desperately blamed the decline in other countries, don't easily draw the conclusion of the United States really losing the deficiencies. It is in the thief, bleeding maybe just yourself. Indeed, if there are too many American foods, these outputs are undoubtedly the loss of American wealth, and the currency taxes will be less. Therefore, the United States has taken another measures: depreciation. I personally believe that the Meyuan keeps a certain period of stability, then depreciating, then maintain a certain period of stability, then depreciate, is a long-term established strategy of the United States instead of a burst crisis. When other countries have stored too many American round reserves, such as China's country does not eat less than 30 billion US round foreign exchange reserves, the United States has begun to consider depreciation. The US depreciation currency is mainly accomplished by reducing interest rates, expanding financial expenditures, and central bank intervention. Through these measures, the US round supply is increased, and the US is depreciated. The reduced interest rate and expansion of financial expenditures in the United States have also caused the country economy, such as the economy may overheat. But the United States is not too familiar with the domestic economy. Although I can't conclude it is interested, it is not too familiar to the economic operation. In short, when it performs a Metro depreciation, it is strictly controlled the domestic demand, that is, the imbalance is imbained by supply and demand. The US round interest rate is lowered, the US is depreciated, and the US economy is not hot. I have declared that it is not excluded that the United States is not familiar with the economy. However, if you replace it is me, if you know about the economy, you don't exclude that some similar means is not taken. In particular, the United States has just completed a war and also causes favorable conditions for depreciation.
If the Meiyuan depreciates 10%, China's foreign exchange reserves have a hard life loss of 300-35 billion US Circles. What is the world, how much is the country? How much is the United States plundered?
Of course, although the United States allows a certain deficit, it is too big, and the impact gives it is also unfavorable. On the one hand, the United States has reducing deficit, on the other hand, especially small Bush, weaken welfare, economic shrinkage, and increasing unemployment, therefore, increased export foreign trade demand becomes the focus of the economy. US export products are mostly high-tech products with high added value, exports more, and the decrease in real wealth in the United States has also affected small. So increase the export, and the wealth used by the export to import the low value-added real wealth is also the focus of the US economy. The US round depreciation, which reduces its export prices and increases exports.
In terms of the United States and China, the US is depreciated, the renminbi appreciates, and the impact of future import and export is not necessary, the most embarrassing trick is still behind.
The United States and Japan accuse the Chinese government to intervene in foreign exchange markets. Its requires two main two, one is the renminbi to appreciate, one is the capital market control to let go, that is, capital can be exchanged freely. These two requirements are sufficient to form a fatal killing for the Chinese economy. The depreciation of a currency can have a variety of means. For example, the United States is achieved by adjusting domestic economic policy means such as Metail. However, this method uses improper, often hurts a thousand, self-injured 800, because these domestic economic policies not only affect foreign exchange markets, but also threaten the domestic economy. Frankly, this is also the defect of the Western economic theory itself. And China is another way to sell directly through the central bank's buying, to ensure the exchange rate of the RMB in the foreign exchange market. At the same time, China has also taken capital control, and capital cannot be free to enter and out of the Chinese market. Therefore, China can intervene in foreign exchange markets in the relative shielding of their own economies. But in any case, whether the currency depreciates, most of them are determined by the government policy. Whether the United States is also Japan, the depreciation of the currency is the result of government intervention, not what they say, the market, freedom. Japan has officials saying that although interest rates are determined by the government, the exchange rate should be simpler as the market decision, which is a typical words. They are all intervention, which have led to the consequences of the currency depreciation. Is it only the market economy, my intervention is the government intervention? To tell the truth, the current Western foreign exchange system itself has a lot of defects. Is it necessary to make up for these defects? Don't make the same mistake with you is government intervention?
Their true purpose, except for the above, is still a more dangerous measures.
At the time of the appreciation of the renminbi, the US or Japan's financial speculators began to spread a lot of funds into China. If China's capital market is open, this inflow is easier. After capital flowing into China, redeem to RMB, waiting for the appreciation of the renminbi. After the appreciation of the renminbi, these financial crocodiles began to throw the RMB and buy a beautiful circle. The Bank of China is impossible to follow the renminbi to buy a mortuary. If that, the exchange rate of the renminbi will fall. In order to maintain the exchange rate of the RMB, the Bank of China, in order to maintain the RMB exchange rate, throw foreign exchange reserves such as Meyuan. Originally, the reason why China's renminbi should be appreciated, because China's economic imbalance, the demand, low price, and a large number of RMB sways outside the market, especially in recent years, it has been fled, according to the statistics of 3 trillion The giant is not the renminbi, it will appreciate. If the capital market is open, the fled funds plus Chinese local RMB in the underground, and then the financial crocodile uses the financial lever, and the ratio of ten yuan is mobilized to shock the RMB, may eventually there are two result. The optimistic result is that the Chinese central bank's foreign exchange reserve is enough, and finally, the teeth have supported the RMB exchange rate, but this time due to a lot of gums, foreign exchange reserves are also lost, and the national economy has retired for several years and even more than ten years. The second result is more horrible, that is, the central bank finds unable to support, and finally let the RMB exchange rate change. At this time, the RMB exchange rate will fall all the way, the more the renminbi is falling, the more people throw out the renminbi, the more throwing the RMB, the more the RMB exchange rate is falling until finally crash. This is the relish of the Southeast Asian financial crisis. At that time, China was completely sluggish.
This is the most serious consequence of the appreciation of the renminbi. Even China is still in capital control, but there are currently more than 20 billion yuan in China through various ways to enter China.
So, can you not appreciate the renminbi, but the capital is released? As Zhang Wu often advocates? In contrast, I would rather float the exchange rate, and I don't open the capital exchange, and I will not be willing to secure the RMB exchange rate to open the capital market. Because of the floating exchange rate, the money is to shock the renminbi, at least I can strengthen control through administrative means, and open the capital market, in the case where the renminbi may always look at the depreciation, if the foreign financial crocodile slashes China, Even if the renminbi does not appreciate, it is also possible to consume a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, and the economy has suffered significant losses. On the other hand, we can't help but ask, even if the United States does not play the wrist to grab the foreign exchange in Chinese hands, what is the meaning of foreign exchange for China?
For a long time, China has been further increased in the regional economic gap between education, social security benefits, and the economic gap between the Midwest, and the urban and rural economic gap. The shortcomings of domestic demand have caused the salary to decrease, in turn, causing further decline in domestic demand. Therefore, China's development of the economy is exterior, and we recommend selling products through foreign trade. However, China's products are mostly low-level products, and competition in the international market is mainly cheap. And this kind of cheap is mainly based on China's cheap labor. This is a very serious problem: if you have long-lasting low labor salary, domestic demand will not start, China will further rely on external needs; depending on the external demand, it needs to compare the salary of labor to compete in the international market. Pressing the labor salary will continue to suppress domestic demand.
Now I'm going to look back and forth to see our domestic economy, when it is a wonder:
We continue to produce a lot of products from the source of products to abroad, exchange a large amount of foreign currency, but the domestic people cannot consume. A large amount of foreign currency in exchange is also flowed back to the United States and other countries by the country through foreign national debt, etc.
In this way, China has increasing the GDP of the banknot sign, but the wealth used for domestic consumption is inconsistent, but it may even decline.
Also because domestic demand is not shrunk, external demand accounts for considerable proportion of total demand, so people think that the external demand is more important, and it is further necessary to suppress domestic demand to expand external demand, so the national economy further towards the score. Its expression is a large amount of surplus in foreign exchange, and domestic demand is sluggish.
The economy of the family should depend on the consumption of material wealth. This kind of consumption is the source of the next round of material wealth, and you can keep a few flower green waste paper to the country. The United States maintains foreign exchange deficit, but has become an economic superpower, and it is very important to here. China's foreign trade income foreign exchange, not used to purchase foreign corresponding material wealth for domestic development, don't say 4 billion yuan reserves, there is 4 trillion yuan and don't do it with waste paper? It sighs self-contraining domestic demand, but it is married to others.
The loss of foreign trade, not in your deficit or surplus, and whether the added value of your product is high. If the added value of the product is low, the more you survive, the more national strength is recession. However, this economic analysis is not the content of this article.
At present, China's central bank is striving to suppress the appreciation of RMB, and the intervention in which it takes is the standard Western macro monetary policy. In order to prevent the renminbi from causing inflation, on the other hand, it is tightened the amount of money, weaken the normal route of money, in order to meet the total amount of money in a country. This method is very dangerous, because although the total amount of money is stable, it has strengthened the imbalance of the economy, and the normal commercial operation is tightened, and the throwing of the RMB is exportable. As a result, China's economy will be in such a two difficulties: the economy continues to be tired, and the demand continues to be exhausted, and a large number of renminbi becomes the river on the ground, and it may crash at any time. Therefore, once the normal economy is slightly improved, the central bank has to be surprised, afraid of this hanging river, causing inflation, so tightening the money pocket. And tightening the money pocket, the economy doesn't get it. Therefore, the two economists quarreled, and some Chinese economy should inflate, and they say that China is still tightening, and there is reason to make sense. The key is that this hanging river is a sword hanging on the top of the head. If there is no such a hanging river, the Chinese economy is a tightening or expansion, and the situation will be clear, and the argument will be much less. The Chinese economy must work normally and must cut off this hanging river. Strengthen the taxation of monopoly profits, strengthen the fight against funds, implement the property registration system, and add an estate tax. Increase education investment, increase public welfare facilities such as social security medical care. Effectively protect workers' rights, improve our labor quality, don't always be proud of cheap labor. Transform the export-oriented economy into an internal direction economy. The above measures can be equivalent to the effects of central banks to compromise the investment, but can stimulate the enthusiasm of investment and increase consumption, cutting the hanging river, so it is not the same as only the ribbed silver roots. For the current foreign exchange reserves, in addition to the necessary stabilization of the market, it should be used to purchase strategic resources or technology. In this way, the beauty circle will be thrown out, with the handle of the international community, and make foreign exchange Field is used to build China, rather than a foreign exchange box at the bottom of the abutment. If China is forced to throw a mortuary, it is to throw a beautiful circle by absorbing the renminbi. The Bank of China has also been self-righteous, and the accumulation of foreign exchange regulation and control policies.
In a word: solve foreign exchange dilemmas, must be in place.
