-------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------ http://finance.sina.com.cn December 08, 2004 09:19 21st Century Economic Report This reporter Xu Keqiang Shanghai reported
There are several international contexts in the hand, Chen Jiantin is still lost. A staff member of the Risk Management Department of China FRBI (Singapore) Co., Ltd. said privately, this loss is so unreasonable, because mostly Chen himself trader. And the friend of the oil circle said that at the end of last year, Chen Jiu Lin has exposed the defeat, because he spent too much time and energy on the game of speculative transactions, regards the spot trading as a white water, "this is in the futures market." The most taboo-lost on a 'anxious' word. "
On December 6, the Singapore Exchange spokesperson said that a special investigation team has been established, investigating speculation in the exchange market in the exchange market.
Due to the more traded market in the field, the Singapore Exchange has not mastered in detail for the transaction data of China Aviation oil. The most detailed data should be found from the China Securities Regulatory Commission Overseas Futures Regulatory Unit. It is said that China Aviation oil will report to market transaction data every month.
A person who is a petroleum futures in Shanghai said that China Aviation oil is a city-making business in the Singapore paper goods market. China Aviation oil made a wrong pricing for the right to keep the price of the aeroise and sold a large number of power contracts, eventually leading to a huge loss of 550 million US dollars, facing bankruptcy protection.
Chen Jielin said, if I gave me 500 million (US dollars), I turned over. What is the logical logic of things? Play back such a $ 550 million amazing story, what can we see?
Where is wrong, when?
Almost all the people who have learned, they will say that Chen Jielin has made a mistake of Nick. Lisen once committed the opposite operation with the market trend.
Lissen, the Japanese economy began to recover. The result of his gambling is to engage in Bahrain Bank; Chen is the opposite transaction in judging the price of oil prices, his price is a listed company.
From the news that China's internal oil, it is displayed in July, that is, the international crude oil price is 40 US dollars per barrel. When the aircraft is close to $ 350 per ton, China Airlines, or Chen Jiu Lin made a wrong judgment: Oil The price will not continue to rise, but to fall. At this point, crude oil has increased by more than 60% of $ 25 per barrel in May 2003.
As for how Chen is how the oil price will begin to decline, it is still unknown. The information that can be learned is, at this time, China Aviation oil began to make mistakes in the international market, with a large number of crude oil futures, which stepped into the abyss.
Futures investment must submit a certain proportion of margin, and international practice is around 5%. According to the price of 40 US dollars per barrel, the deposit of 2 US dollars per barrel is required. Even if China's sailing oil holds tens of thousands of tits, the desired margin will not exceed $ 100 million.
But this kind of investment obviously suffered a harsh sniper in the market. The international crude oil prices rapidly rose to $ 56 per barrel on October 26. This price can be said to be the upper limit of Chen Jiulin's psychological crash.
The exchanges of the exchanges to prevent the relationship between futures transactions, and will generally use the position of the customer to automatically set the position of the customer when the carrying amount of the customer's book loss is reached. That is to say, the maximum funding of China Aviation Oil in crude oil futures is the capital. This kind of loss is immediately happening when it is suffering from the forced position.
According to the news, after the price of crude oil reached 50 US dollars, the judgment of China Aviation oil once again appeared serious mistakes, and the market was built into the market. However, the fight against the market is coming again, and the oil prices fell sharply from $ 56 per barrel and only $ 42 per barrel on December 6. At this time, some oil circles came out that Chen Jiu Lin was really luck. And it's more difficult to listen to: Chen I don't know oil, I don't understand futures, so I will be able to apply it. Although China Florization Group is responsible for the spokesperson of this incident, it is unclear how much the loss in the futures in the futures. However, the market is judged that China Aviation oil is wrong and speculative, resulting in a minimum of $ 100 million, accounting for a minority of 550 million US dollars; the bleeding of China Aviation oil is from the optional trade in the Singapore paper goods market.
"Option" and "Futures"
Singapore's paper goods market is the market that is different from the exchange market. In the paper goods market, it will eventually do not need to deliver in stock, but in order to carry out cash, mainly in the paper, therefore.
As China's most important aviation kerosene trader, China Airlines has almost monopolized the Chinese airliner market. A report of Eastern Airlines pointed out that China's aviation kerosene consumption has been around 6 million tons in recent years, while the number of imports reached 30%. These aeroons are necessary to make a settlement business in the international market.
Since China Aviation oil is registered in Singapore, it has a very important status in the market of Airborne, in the market. Thereby, China Aviation oil has become a city commercial transaction in the Singapore paper goods market.
The so-called market fair of the option product is to sell free quotations in the market, selling the investor or losing the option to obtain power. It is the right to sell to the option to sell the target to the options (the right price) in the agreed period (the right price) to the option to sell the target. The option Buyer can choose the execution option contract according to the market conditions (also called the right) within the contract period. If you buy this power, it is called authority. Investors buy options are generally to help their buying futures or in stock, and the option sellers are to obtain power.
From a contract, the option sells people seem to be carrying unlimited risks. Because of this, only the best reputation, the most powerful organization can become a city commercial and sell option. From a global point, the option sells is basically profitable, and the investor is very rare.
In fact, the option to trade in China Aviation oil is quite profitable. According to informed people, the risk investment income of China Aviation oil accounts for more than 65% of total profits, which is mainly the benefits of selling options. Side Hui does not deny that risk investment revenue is an important profit source of China Aviation oil, but it may not be as high as the proportion.
If the crude oil futures trading of China's sailing oil causes the company's trauma, the option trading is opened, and the blood of China has lost blood, and it will collapse.
The disregard of China Aviation oil is that there is no right to settle the right to keep the price of the aerobic limit (one option), so that investors have purchased a lot of such options.
Market people revealed that this time the time of China Airlines sold, the price is approximately 3 US dollars per barrel, around $ 22 per ton. Although the specific option contract is different, it is estimated to be below $ 400 per ton. However, in the middle and late October, the price of Singapore has reached around $ 450. Due to the high price of the air kerosene prices, the right price is lower than the market price, the investors ask for the right to sell, which is to produce huge losses in China.
The loss of 30 US dollars per ton of air kerosene is calculated, and the option of 3 million tons is almost 100 million US dollars. This loss speed and scale is not the furious transaction. This risk is almost unlimited to the option selling, and China Aviation oil has not taken a good hedge.
Double loss of futures and options, so that China's $ 550 million instantly evaporated. Who is a sniper?
Similar situations have happened in February 1995 that Bahrain Bank's eyes are staring at Lisen's huge profit, and he has simply ignored the risk of doing a lot of multi-day futures, and even assume that accounts can also get enough from the bank. Funds. In the end, Bahrain Bank lost $ 1.3 billion and fell.
After being sentenced to life imprisonment, Lissen wrote "I am so fascinated the Bank of Bank." He said, "I feel incredible for no one to stop me."
Listed companies from a small company that take over a 210,000 yuan asset to hundreds of millions of assets, not everyone can do. Chen Jiu Lin did, even though he repeatedly talked about "gambling", but as long as he gamble, no one will stop him.
So far, can't confirm that Chen Jiu Lin is responsible for China Aviation Oil Incident, because the mistake of China's oil does not seem to be so obvious like Lisen.
A senior market believes that the loss of crude oil futures is overcrulating, and the stop loss is not timely. The error in the option trading is that there is no significant increase in the power of the option in time, and lowers the power of the option to fall. The person thinks that if the power is high enough, then there will be very few people to buy this power. One example is that when the price of fuel oil fluctuates is powerful, the fuel oil's option authority is up to 100 yuan per ton, while fuel oil is just more than 2,000 yuan per ton.
Of course, it seems to be a little smaller than Lissen's intentional fraud, and there is a smaller thing in the development of powers, and there is also a signs of sniper.
From the prices of crude oil, "coincidentally" began to fall on October 26, and the "coincidental" has such a large-scale speculator to buy the current right, the steps of China's oil-lost blood loss seems to have more coincidence. International funds sniper hitting the shadow of the oil is absolutely difficult to avoid. Moreover, international funds sniper Chinese capital has a similar treatment in quite a few markets, and China's funds invest in copper and zinc, and there are similar treatments.
From it seems that Chen Jielin's mistakes may not be as serious as Lissen, and it is not necessary to take the price of Lisen. However, the influence of China Aviation Oil Event is even more bad than Bahrain Bank - Chinese companies have downgrades. This is said that the bank of Singapore said that the bank he served is one of the main creditors of China Aviation oil.
Chen Jiu Lin even speared: if I gave me 500 million (US dollars), I will turn over! That is listening, just another surprise.
