● Sun Yizhen (Beijing Specialist)
Is China's economic development risk of "misunderstanding"? In the past two years, public opinion generally believes that the natural law of economic development is leading China to a heavy industrialization. However, in recent days, more and more economists have publicly questioned that the rapid "light return" of China's economy is the government to help.
After Wu Jingwei, the National Institute of Development Research Center, Director Lin Yifu, director of the China Economic Research Center of Peking University, recently pointed out that China's economy has accelerated heavy industrialization in the past two years, and it is not like many people. It is the China economy has developed to a certain stage, industry upgrade Naturally brought the results. "Of course, our industrial structure will continue to be upgraded, but this round (heavy industry) should still have (point into the road)." This scholar said in Peking University.
For a long time, the light industry has been dominant in China's economic development, but in 2000, especially since last year, China has begun to make a significant heavy industrialization trend. At present, the heavy industry has accounted for more than two-thirds of industrial output, and this ratio continues to rise.
Many people believe that there is an objective reason behind this. With the prosperous and urbanization acceleration, the Chinese consumption hotspot has been transformed into housing, automobiles and other heavy work products, which also means that the Chinese economy will inevitably enter the stage of heavy work.
However, Wu Jingxi did not take it, he pointed out that China's economy is not a market but the government is promoted. Increase fiscal revenue and the needs of creating political achievements, so many local governments have a heavy industry. For example, Beijing's development software industry. There is no increase in fiscal revenue and industrial output value for two years. Last year, the target turned to the automotive industry. In just 200 days, he created the output value of tens of millions of RMB and billions of RMB.
Such artificial explosives in real estate and automotive industries are caused by the practice of promoting heavy industry, and thereby causing irrational explosive expansion in industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, machinery, petrochemical, while also leading to oil, coal and electricity. .
Wu Jingxi pointed out that the best in Zhejiang, the best in the light industry, has also been transformed into heavy industry under the government. The result is very nervous last year. Many factories are open for 3 days in 4 days, and some places are still water, some There are only two days a week in the county.
"Small children wear big shoes"
Lin Yifu took the media to the media in the Youth Huashang Summit, which was held in January next year, is mentioned that this round of industrial heat does not meet the needs of China's economy and social development. The overspeal of China is more concerned about labor intensive. Instead of the development of capital intensive industries. Now that the situation is, there is no more advantageous heavy industry to support government bank support, and many competitive labor-intensive SMEs cannot obtain bank loans.
According to statistics, the investment of heavy industry per 100 million yuan (1990 million new yuan) can create 5,000 employment opportunities, and the same inputs in light industry can create three times of jobs. Moreover, the heavy industry needs professional and technical industry workers, and cannot absorb rural labor forces in China's billion-based education.
Lin Yifu said that China's reality is a capital-intensive industry that is inexpensive, capital expensive, and at present, there is no advantageous capital-intensive industry, and the result is that bank bad debts increased significantly. The capital-intensive large enterprise is easy to obtain loans, and the banking system based on the four major state-owned banks is not conducive to encouraging labor-intensive enterprises, and China requires more small and medium-sized banks to serve them.
