After the central bank raised interest rates, various reactions came to. Core problem and guessing focused on two points: 1. Why is the central bank? Second, is China enter the raising cycle?
In this regard, Peking University professor has unique interpretation. He started from the issue of the negative rate, and the influence of inflation and other factors such as inflation were studied, and the "Securities Market Weekly" provided this research report, the conclusion is amazed: residents "robbed" 700 billion.
It's really not known, I am scared. With this conclusion, the answers to other many questions are naturally easier to seek. For example, the interest rate hike is only occasionally, or enter the raising channel? For example, how should the tax policy adjust? For example, if the exchange rate trend does not change or may change? and many more. Any problem is very sensitive. For these issues, Professor Song Guoyong did not directly gave a specific answer. However, there is no way, the change is not from its Zong, and the main line of "robbery" is "robbed", which is easy to give a correct judgment of many hanging problems.
Recently, the problem of discussing a long-awaited interest rate hike has finally gone. The interest rate hike, the market is confusing, which not only causes the oscillation of the domestic capital market, but also has an impact on the international market. At a time, the economic circles of domestic and foreign economic circles have come.
People who care about the macroeconomic will believe that as one of the means of regulating interests is the main purpose of inhibiting excessive economic growth; people of the corporate community will care about the interest burden on enterprise liabilities; while securities market People will worry about the interest rate hike to attract funds from the original securities market to the bank.
These fears are not redundant, but they are all from their respective angles. Crossing these discussions, but some people pay attention to a point, although the increase in the increased range and the situation of resident financial assets, this raising rate will increase the interest income of annual residents by more than 300 billion yuan. Such a number of income increases, and inflation compared to the big robbery of resident wealth, just a small body. Recently, the report given by the Song Guoqing, a professor of Peking University, has been shown that in recent years, due to factors such as inflation, the national financial asset funds have lost more than 700 billion yuan.
700 billion yuan wealth disappeared
Since the November 2003 CPI (Consumer Price Index) More than 3%, China has begun in the era of the real interest rate (the difference between interest rate and price index) of the price index exceeding the name of the price (the difference between the price index), this year, the CPI has always been At about 4% to 5%, the real interest rate is approximately -3% compared to the previous year deposit rate of 1.98% of the year.
What kind of loss is true interest rate to cause the resident assets? The Song Guoqing bought a bill. "According to statistics and estimated data (estimated error affects the last results), the total financial assets of the national residents are about 15 trillion yuan at the end of 2003, and it is estimated that the final 2007 trillion yuan. The project calculated here includes this Foreign currency savings deposits, local currency handheld cash, life insurance premiums, documentary national debt and estimated personal stock account assets (including stock market assets including stock market values and cash).
"According to the average balance of 16 trillion yuan, the inflation rate is reduced by 1 percentage point without considering the name interest rate, and the actual value of resident financial assets is nearly 160 billion yuan. It is estimated that the 2004 consumption price index is higher than the previous year. Rising 4.2%. According to this, the total loss of inflation to the residential financial assets is about 650 billion yuan. In addition, according to the current situation in the A-share market, the carrying amount of residents hold the shares exceeds 50 billion yuan. Plus This, 2004 resident financial asset principal loss exceeded 700 billion yuan (there was no interest income here, one reason is that interest income has been included in the personal income of general statistics). "
Resident wealth rises to inflation sensitivity
We usually say that GDP (GDP) and national income are two incompletely identical concepts. GDP refers to all the final results of all residential production and operation activities in a country (or region) in a certain period of time. GDP is the ultimate results of production and operations according to the principles of land, including increased value created in China, and therefore, this part of the output should be deducted from GDP when calculating national income. Since the national income is that the owner of the production factor is based on the production factor, it is a total income obtained by the production factors of labor, capital and land, which is subtracted from the GDP to the depreciation and indirect tax. of. Therefore, the report pointed out that approximately 12 trillion yuan in 2003, from the middle, the fixed assets depreciation and foreign profit, and the net income of the national net income is less than 10 trillion yuan. Not counting the loss of financial assets, personal disposable income is approximately 7 trillion yuan. Due to the great increase in fiscal revenue and corporate profits (which grows far more than 8%), "Even if the creditor's debt profit or loss is not calculated by accounting method, it is estimated that the actual growth rate of GDP personal disposable income may only be less than 8%. If calculated at 8%, the annual increase in the annual increase is about 580 billion yuan according to the price of this year. If the personal disposable income calculated according to the accounting method is about 580 billion yuan, the financial asset loss caused by inflation More than 700 billion yuan, this means that the personal disposable income after the adjustment of financial income is reduced. "According to the initial estimate, this conclusion is obtained.
This is equivalent to this time, the people are busy. However, Song Guoqing does not believe that this is simply caused by "high inflation". "In 2004, the inflation rate is not high, and the highest month is only 5.3%, it is estimated that the annual average and year-end inflation rate is 4.2% and 4.3% respectively, which is significantly lower than 24.1% in 1994."
Since the inflation rate is not high, then it can only be found from the other hand of negative interest rates, that is, the current interest rate level. "The current interest rate level is the lowest in many years. In the high inflation of 10 years ago, the interest rate of 1-year savings deposit was 10.98%, and the savings deposit of 3 years and above was later enjoyed. This time interest rate hike The first 1-year deposit rate is 1.98%, which has more than 20% interest income tax than the past. "
"More importantly, the proportion of residential financial assets and annual income has risen sharply. In 1978, the total value of the individual's personal financial assets only had 40% of the annual income, and now I reached approximately 2 times. In 1993, resident savings deposits The proportion of hand-held cash and GDP is 82.9%, and the proportion of two in 2003 rose to 148.4%. From this perspective, resident wealth has increased significantly to inflation rates and interest rates. "
Resident deposits and hand-held cash parts usually resist inflation, and therefore, from this perspective, negative rates are very large about the impact of resident wealth.
Inflation leads to false income tax
The impact of negative interest rates is not only greatly acting in residents, but also has an important impact on enterprises and fiscal taxes.
In the first 3 quarters of 2004, the Nominal GDP increased by 17.7% year-on-year. The national tax increased by 26.3% year-on-year. The profit of industrial enterprises above the country increased by 38.5% year-on-year (January-August), while the disposable income of urban residents increased by 11.4 %. The report pointed out that "the latter income is not the accounting name income of the creditor's debt profit or loss."
Financial revenue mainly comes from taxes, the above data shows that the current fiscal revenue growth rate is much higher than the economic growth rate, resulting in two aspects of this result.
"The first is that the tax rate of different economic sections is different. In the case of economic structural changes, the average tax rate can be changed. The first industry with lower average tax rate accounts for high import and export growth rate of the national economy. Such results can be produced in economic growth. "" The second important reason is the false income of inflation. In the case of negative interest rates, interest income calculated according to the accounting method is false, and financial pair This false interest income is taxed. For the incumbent personal income tax, inflation has led to false increase in income, making the average tax rate. "" For the company, the taxation of false income also exists. " The main problem of enterprises is to pay relatively low assets. Due to inflation, fixed assets calculated according to the current price should be increased, so the depreciation of the current price should be increased. However, the company actually does not do such adjustments, resulting in depreciation and underestimation, which is cost Underestimation, profits are vulnerable, and taxes also increase. This is the same as fake interest income tax on bank deposits. "The report gives this judgment.
Who benefits from negative interest rates?
While resident financial assets are lost, there must be related aspects will benefit from it. In the report, the end use of 16 trillion residential financial assets can be divided into two directions in China. The latter directly corresponds to the national foreign exchange reserves (China's current situation of residents' overseas investment, the resident financial assets are mainly Refers to domestic financial assets; and in the future, the main channels that the residents convert domestic financial assets to foreign assets under the premise of international currency and residents' foreign investment conditions are the use of the foreign exchange reserves of the RMB exchange. From this point of view, the country Foreign exchange reserves in a sense is the foreign exchange "reserve" - reporter note of residents' foreign investment.
At the end of 2003, China Foreign Exchange Reserve Plus the commercial bank as a foreign exchange of commercial banks as a capital of 450 billion US dollars. As of the end of August this year, foreign exchange reserves increased to $ 524.5 billion, expects foreign exchange reserves at the end of this year to reach $ 600 billion. China's foreign exchange reserves have averaged $ 525 billion in the year, with a total of 4.3 trillion yuan. This is a part of the 16 trillion yuan of resident financial assets. That is to say, the remaining 11.7 trillion yuan is used in China. Accordingly, the loss of resident financial assets can be divided into wealth transfer in both foreign and domestic directions.
The report analyzes all aspects of the part of the resident financial assets in China.
"For domestic assets, companies are the largest benefits of negative interest rates. The company has two parts from the financial inflation and negative interest rates. One part is that the current interest expenditure is low relative to the inflation rate, which is reflected In the profits on accounting account; another part is the depreciation of the debt, corresponding to the depreciation of resident savings, is not reflected in the accounting account. The latter part is the big head. "" In addition, in the case of negative interest rates, it means points Go to Wealth. But the situation of different companies is different. In the case of macro-regulating, there is a control and credit quantity control, some enterprises have been promoted, and some companies have been rejected outside the bank. The interest rate of folk lending is not only included. Inflation factors, and contains greater risk boosts and transaction costs. Some companies have got loans from the bank, but they have implicitted the 'rental' caused by credit number. However, these situations are only for new loans. In terms of, the original loans still enjoy the benefits of depreciation. "
"Secondly, it is financial. There are two forms of fiscal 'inflation'. First, the above-mentioned false income tax is reflected in the growth rate of fiscal revenue. Another form is not reflected in In the financial revenue on the book, it is reflected in the depreciation of the balance balance. The current national debt is mainly held by the residents and banks and insurance companies. Bank and insurance companies have not losses due to the depreciation of national bonds, but will pass the loss. Give a personal. "
"Resident wealth loss caused by cash depreciation in circulation is directly reflected in the depreciation of central bank debt, because the goods are remembered as central bank liabilities. This is the general inflation tax, and it can be understood as fiscal recessive income. "
In addition, the report pointed out that commercial banks are one of the beneficiaries. The current basic deposit loan spread is the largest, in addition, there is also the spread of deposits and loans caused by loan interest rates. Such a large spread can be existed, and there is a direct relationship with the deposit negative interest rate. If the real interest rate of deposits is relatively high, too high deposit loans means that excessive loan interest rates may cause credit relative shrinkage and inflexion, and high deposits are difficult to continue. Therefore, the basics of existence of oversized loans must be low in deposit rate. Savings reduce consumption
From a common sense, the real interest rate is negative will reduce the willingness of the residents, and if people may prompt people to transfer to consumption if the income does not even increase. However, compared with the speed of national economic growth, in 2004, residents' savings were obviously small. This is not difficult to understand that the real interest rate is too low. It is difficult to understand that consumption does not increase, and the actual consumption growth rate is approximately equal to the average growth rate in the previous year. This is not forbidden, where is it to be doubtful, where is the reduced savings?
The report also explained this question. "From the results of accounting methods, the current domestic currency savings (increased savings balance) is absolutely declining over the previous year, including foreign currency deposits and handheld cash and other projects, the increase in financial assets, which is also lower than last year. Here The main problem is to do inflation adjustments such as residential income expenditure, especially for financial assets. In accordance with the estimated results of the foregoing, there is no significant growth in consumption, which is the real income of the residents after the adjustment of financial resources. Increase, it is likely to have a considerable decline. "The report also emphasized, because the monthly data is not comprehensive, the different caliber data is not complete comparable, and it is difficult to determine the details of the income expenditure of residents, and only give a very rough estimate, appearing The relatively large error is inevitable. However, with respect to such a large number of financial assets such as 700 billion, the possible errors will not have much impact on the analysis results at all.
Although the comparative number is estimated in the report in the case of the statistics incomplete. "According to the current situation, it is estimated that the income of residents' income, the income growth is even decreased compared with the previous year, and the consumption increased by about 400 billion yuan, the financial asset savings decreased by about 500 billion yuan, the real thing Investment (net investment after depreciation) and housing payments may increase by more than 10 billion yuan over the previous year. "Because the middle involves many predictions and estimates, there may be more than 100 billion yuan or even more errors." However, the basic situation is clear: the income has not increased, the consumption has increased, and the financial asset savings is reduced, and the physical investment includes the increase in the purchase of houses. Personal financial asset savings and physical investment include buying a house paying together, a total savings, still falling about 400 billion yuan, approximately equal to consumption increase. The resulting savings tendency is about 29% in 2003, fell to approximately 23% in 2004. "
Since inflation rate in the fourth quarter of 2003 has reached 3.0%. Taking into account the loss of financial assets, the 2003 savings tendency has dropped over the previous year, and 2004 continues to decline on this basis. This is the significant effect of the negative interest rate.
Since the negative interest rate provokes such a "disaster", then solve this seemingly difficult problem is also a very simple method, that is, to improve the deposit rate, but also "financial" in the people. However, adjusting interest rates such a simple market-regulating means have been greatly issued.
Exchange Rate Understanding Rate
According to Mundal's "three yuan paradox", under the premise of capital free flow, the adjustment of exchange rates and interest rates are always mutually honest. This is also the topic of the previous economist discussing the most, China's exchange rate does not adjust the interest rate, it is difficult to make adjustments, and the central bank's monetary policy has lost independence.
The reason why local currency deposit interest rates are closely related, because the deposit interest rate of the currency is actually the cost of foreign exchange reserves, and the interest rate of foreign currency is the income of foreign exchange reserves. Usually, if the foreign currency deposit rate is low, the deposit interest rate of the currency deposit is high, then foreign exchange reserves will bear great losses. Since China's foreign exchange reserves are based on dollar, the nominal interest rate level of RMB deposits is very close to the US dollar. In this case, if the RMB deposit interest rate is greatly improved, the foreign exchange reserve will have a huge loss. This is considered to be a potential reason that the RMB interest rate adjustment is too slow and the amplitude is too small. Interest rate policies must be relatively independent, must be realized in situations in exchange rate levels. So, is the current exchange rate level reasonably or unreasonable? This is a more detailed explanation of this in the report. The report pointed out that if the original exchange rate is normal, and the normal exchange rate change is only related to the inflation rate of different countries, and the interest rate and inflation rate remain balanced, then China's inflation rate and interest rates are higher than the United States. The renminbi depreciates for the US dollar (according to the interest rate parity theory, the A country's interest rate is higher than the B country, and the foreign exchange market is expressed as the exchange rate expected depreciation A% - Reporter Note). In this case, the foreign exchange reserves are appreciated relative to the local currency. Foreign exchange reserves have lost money in terms of interest rates, and they are compensated in terms of exchange rate. The final result is that the real exchange rate has not changed, and the true value of foreign exchange reserves has not changed.
In the opposite case, if China's inflation rate and interest rate are lower than the US, the renminbi can appreciate, the foreign exchange reserve is losing money in exchange rate, and compensated in terms of interest rate. The final result is still the real exchange rate has not changed, and the true value of foreign exchange reserves has not changed.
According to the above theory, the current China's inflation rate is higher than the main currency inflation rate, then the RMB should depreciate to the US dollar. However, the current renminbi not only has no depreciation, and the expectation of appreciation (the intrinsic value is still relative to the exchange rate), "The reason is that the original exchange rate is low. In 2003, China's inflationary rate has been lower than the US, the renminbi. The intrinsic value has risen relative to the US dollar, while the exchange rate does not reflect this change. At that time, the appreciation of the renminbi did not appreciate, so that the foreign exchange bought since then. "
"So," Reporting Conclusion, "The interest loss of the resident financial assets corresponding to foreign exchange reserves is completed by the RMB value. This loss is mainly not happening now, but it happened in the past. It used to be in the past. The book value of foreign exchange reserves. Now, this sub-loss part is revealed, reflecting the interest of the central bank's foreign exchange operations to pay the interest payment to the local currency savings. "
As the report said, this part of this loss has been formed, or through the appreciation of the renminbi, the residents' corresponding foreign financial assets have been released; either drag, improve the domestic interest rate through the pressure of the future depreciation of the renminbi to buffer the RMB originally Causes the pressure of appreciation, but the cost is the loss of foreign exchange reserves.
"From this perspective, if the value of the currency value is underestimated, the foreign exchange continues to flow a lot, and the situation in the RMB deposit interest rate will continue." Summary in the report.
