For 2005, the foreign exchange market is launched, and the following thinking is made.
Basic Principles: International Market Product Price <- Equivalent -> Valin Currency (USD) Price <- Exchange Rate -> Other Currency Price
Dollar depreciation (US dollar exchange rate drop) -> Other currency appreciation -> commodity (oil, copper, aluminum, etc.) price increase
US dollar appreciation (US dollar exchange rate rises) -> Other currency depreciation -> commodity (oil, copper, aluminum, etc.) price decline
1 View from interest rates:
RMB enters interest rate rising cycle -> Economic temperature rise and gradual effect -> Production slowdown caused in reduction in demand for international market goods (oil, copper, aluminum, etc.) -> International market goods (oil, copper, aluminum, etc.) relatively increased, price Falling -> US dollar exchange rate rises
2 View from exchange rate:
The renminbi enters interest rate rising cycle (with this gradually introduced more open exchange rate system) -> Help slow down the huge black words to the United States -> The US double-son deficit problem is reluctant -> The US dollar exchange rate gradually rises
3 combine to see:
RMB interest rate rises -> The renminbi yield increase -> International capital more tended to flow into China -> China's foreign exchange reserves further increase -> The gap between China and the United States has further expanded, a lot of hot money flows into China, and China has a large number of US US Foreign exchange reserves of national debt and other varieties -> RMB appreciation pressure Continue to increase -> Remove interest rates to soothe the RMB exchange rate appreciation pressure -> Re-enter the previous circulation circle, the renminbi only rely on the increase of interest rates can not resist the appreciation pressure -> raised the RMB interest rate and Upset the RMB exchange rate -> RMB exchange rate gradually high
4 will look at some days:
RMB exchange rate continues to rise -> National and private business owners gradually packed and enrichment, the extension of foreign capital is crazy -> China gradually transforms the role of the world factory into capital output country -> China Daji Investment Third World Countries, including Southeast Asia, India, Africa-> At the same time, it gradually started investing in Europe and the United States-> Chian Money Safe World -> China's domestic productivity continues to improve, at the same time due to the gradual completion of oil, metal, etc. To reduce -> The US dollar exchange rate is high and the commodity currency is low (£ 3)
My conclusion: The total looks in 2005 2, 3 years should be the dollar gradually transfer to the weak, step into the appreciation cycle. At the same time, Asian currency represented by RMB and Yen will also be strong, and the European CMB (euro, £) and other commodity currency and hedging currency (AUD, Swiss franc) will turn to long-term weakness.
